Phillips Curve

Òscar Jordà · Sharon Kozicki

This 2011 International Economic Review paper by Óscar Jordà and Sharon Kozicki proposes "projection minimum distance" (PMD), a two-step semiparametric estimator for macroeconomic models whose …

Robert E. Lucas Jr.

This 1972 Journal of Economic Theory paper by Robert Lucas constructs an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model — young and old traders exchanging in two physically separated, …

Edmund S. Phelps

This paper builds a dynamic, non-stochastic model of the "optimal" fiscal control of aggregate demand, deriving the time path of aggregate employment (or "utilization") that a policymaker who cares …

Olivier Blanchard · Jordi Galí

The standard New Keynesian model implies that stabilising inflation also stabilises the welfare-relevant output gap -- a property the authors name the "divine coincidence" and trace to the absence of …

N. Gregory Mankiw

The consensus view that contractionary monetary shocks raise unemployment but only slowly and gradually lower inflation is, this lecture argues, flatly inconsistent with the forward-looking "new …

A. W. Phillips

This paper tests, using nearly a century of British data (1861-1957), the hypothesis that the rate of change of money wage rates can be explained by the level of unemployment and the rate of change of …

Milton Friedman

Delivered as Friedman's presidential address to the American Economic Association in December 1967, this paper argues that two decades of professional opinion had swung too far toward assigning …

J. Bradford De Long

Tracing the 20th-century history of "monetarism" through four successive subspecies, De Long argues that although monetarism's most politically influential and empirically fragile form collapsed in …

Timothy Cogley · Argia M. Sbordone

This 2008 American Economic Review paper by Timothy Cogley and Argia Sbordone asks whether the substantial persistence long observed in U.S. inflation reflects a genuine structural feature of …