Monetary-Policy

Fan Liang

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why small firms hold large quantities of liquid assets — cash and cash equivalents that earn low or negative real returns — even when external credit is available. …

Mitali Das · Gita Gopinath · Helene Hall · Taehoon Kim · Jeremy C. Stein

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why non-U.S. central banks accumulate large holdings of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, focusing on a previously under-emphasized motive: the …

Katharina Bergant · Prachi Mishra · Raghuram Rajan · Freddy Pinzon-Puerto

Layer 1: Overview This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and …

Julien Acalin · Laurence Ball

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Layer 1: Overview Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) …

Robert P Lieli (Central European University · Austria); Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu (Universidad Nacional de Tucuman · Argentina)

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call …

S. Borağan Aruoba · Thomas Drechsel

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate “shocks” — changes in interest rates that are not …

William A. Branch

Layer 1: Overview Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Ari Kutai · Rafi Melnick

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, …

Carlo Altavilla · Giacomo Carboni · Michele Lenza · Harald Uhlig

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether uncertainty in the interbank market — distinct from general macroeconomic uncertainty — raises the cost of bank credit to firms, and whether bank-specific …

Isabel Cairó · Avi Lipton

Layer 1: Overview This paper addresses two connected questions: why do Black workers face persistently higher and more volatile unemployment than white workers, and can the Federal Reserve’s …

Andrea Ferrero · Maurizio Michael Habib · Livio Stracca · Fabrizio Venditti

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies …

Jianjun Miao · Zhouxiang Shen · Dongling Su

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how bank holdings of long-term government securities interact with interest-rate-driven monetary tightening to amplify macroeconomic downturns and generate banking …

Christiaan van der Kwaak (University of Groningen)

Layer 1: Overview When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by …

Hassan Afrouzi · Marina Halac · Kenneth Rogoff · Pierre Yared

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler

Layer 1: Overview Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without …

Minsu Chang · Frank Schorfheide

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how conventional and informational monetary policy shocks affect the cross-sectional distributions of labor earnings, consumption, and financial income in the United …

Damien Capelle · Yang Liu

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …

Kee-Youn Kang · Zijian Wang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem …

Matthew Klepacz

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: …

Lukasz A. Drozd · Marcin Kolasa · Jaromir B. Nosal

Layer 1: Overview This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial …

Sushant Acharya · Jess Benhabib

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips …

Russell Cooper · Ozgen Ozturk

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but …

Eunkyung Lee

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. This paper asks how monetary policy transmits to corporate investment through bank credit, and specifically whether the relevant credit margin is …

Donggyu Lee

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and …

Michael W. L. Elsby · Axel Gottfries · Pawel Krolikowski · Gary Solon

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual …

Drago Bergholt · Fabio Canova · Francesco Furlanetto · Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli · Pål Ulvedal

Layer 1: Overview The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a …

BEHZAD DIBA · OLIVIER LOISEL

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts …

Chadwick Curtis · Julio Garín · Robert Lester

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the …

Luís A.V. Catão · Jan Ditzen · Daniel Marcel Te Kaat

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks’ non-core funding, and whether exchange …

Gene Ambrocio

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

Layer 1: Overview This paper revisits the “reversal puzzle” — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian …

CHARLES M. KAHN · DAVID MARSHALL · ROBERT L. MCDONALD

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a “market-maker of last …

Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo · Iván Payá

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of …

RODRIGO BARBONE GONZALEZ · JOÃO BARATA RIBEIRO BLANCO BARROSO · BERNARDUS FERDINANDUS NAZAR VAN DOORNIK

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies’ foreign debt …

Richard Dennis · Oleg Kirsanov

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents “present bias” — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, …

Matthias Gnewuch · Donghai Zhang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for …

Michael Smolyansky · Gustavo Suarez

Layer 1: Overview When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that …

MELTEM CHADWICK · RENNAE CHERRY · JAQUESON K. GALIMBERTI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household …

THORSTEN BECK · PETER BEDNAREK · DANIEL TE KAAT · NATALJA VON WESTERNHAGEN

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system’s foreign-asset exposure plays in …

Carlo Altavilla · Refet S. Gürkaynak · Rogier Quaedvlieg

Layer 1: Overview This paper establishes basic facts about the external finance premium (EFP) faced by euro area firms borrowing from banks, and studies how monetary policy is transmitted to it. The …

Justine Guillochon

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households’ one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, …

Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Pascal Kieren · Stefan Trautmann

Standard survey-based measurement of inflation expectations relies on density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified inflation bins; this method has been found to induce …

DOMINIK BODDIN · DANIEL MARCEL TE KAAT · CHANG MA · ALESSANDRO REBUCCI

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing …

Marco Bassetto · David S Miller

Overview Research Question. Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to …

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Walker Ray · Dimitri Vayanos

Layer 1 — Core Argument The paper develops a two-country preferred-habitat model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles — currency traders with price-elastic …

Joel P. Flynn · George Nikolakoudis · Karthik A. Sastry

Research Question Modern macroeconomic models of aggregate supply universally restrict firms to price-setting — committing to a price and supplying whatever quantity the market demands. Flynn, …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler · Simone Lenzu · Joris Tielens

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether …

Felipe Del Canto · John Grigsby · Eric Qian · Conor Walsh

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks whether inflationary shocks are regressive, and demonstrates that the answer depends critically on the source of the shock. A single aggregate …

Cooper Howes · Gregory Weitzner

Bank Information Production Over the Business Cycle Research Question Banks produce private information about borrowers that is inherently unobservable to outside researchers. Howes and Weitzner ask …

Elliot Anenberg · Tess Scharlemann · Eileen van Straelen

Overview Research Question. Does monetary policy stimulate household borrowing and consumption by enabling cash-out mortgage refinancing (“the cash-out refinance channel”), or does it …

Francesco Lippi · Elia Moracci

Lippi and Moracci (2026) ask how euro area households choose between cash and card payments, and whether existing theoretical models can explain observed behavior. They draw on ECB payment diary …

Michael Ehrmann · Phillipp Gnan · Kilian Rieder

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three …

BENJAMÍN GARCÍA · ARSENIOS SKAPERDAS

This paper constructs a new measure of political pressure on the Federal Reserve from textual analysis of Fed Chairs’ testimonies at Humphrey-Hawkins congressional hearings, and documents that …

Manuel Amador · Christopher Phelan

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? …

Francesco Giovanardi · Matthias Kaldorf

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks two related questions about the intersection of climate policy and bank capital regulation. First, can differentiated bank capital requirements — …

Ippei Fujiwara · Kiminori Matsuyama

Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …

Fernando Alvarez · Katarína Borovičková · Robert Shimer

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks two related questions. First, can one develop a robust, distribution-free estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of …

Emil Holst Partsch · Ivan Petrella · Emiliano Santoro

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two …

Jonathan Payne · Bálint Szőke · George Hall · Thomas J Sargent

Overview This paper constructs a new dataset of US federal bond prices and uses it to estimate the full term structure of yields on gold-denominated US federal debt from 1791 to 1933 — the entire gold …

Julien Bengui · Louphou Coulibaly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from …

Anastasiia Antonova · Gernot J. Müller

This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …

Michael McLeay · Silvana Tenreyro

Layer 1 — Summary An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Jonathon Hazell · Bledi Taska

Layer 1 — Summary Hazell and Taska use wages posted on online job vacancies — matched to job titles and establishment identifiers from Burning Glass Technologies — to measure the wage for new hires at …

Giacomo Lanzani

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that …

Cynthia L Doniger

Overview Research question. This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers’ educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare …

Brent Bundick · Isabel Cairó · Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in …

Ming Zeng · Guihai Zhao

Overview Research Question. What drives the joint historical dynamics of the term structure of equity yields and nominal bond yields — and can a single unified equilibrium model explain the …

Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks whether an explicit, global, closed-form solution exists for the consumption function in the standard income fluctuation problem with a borrowing …

Renato Faccini · Seungcheol Lee · Ralph Luetticke · Morten O. Ravn · Tobias Renkin

Overview Research Question. How do consumer credit spreads — the gap between household borrowing rates and deposit rates — affect aggregate business cycle dynamics and the distribution of consumption …

Kirstin Hubrich · Yves S. Schüler · Daniel Waggoner

This paper investigates the role of leverage of financial institutions in amplifying the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, with particular attention to whether that amplification …

Carlos Arteta · Steven Kamin · Franz U. Ruch

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the …

Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in …

Guillermo A. Calvo · Andrés Velasco

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Calvo and Velasco study an economy where both money and government bonds provide liquidity services, and they show that this shared role implies …

Saleem Bahaj · Ricardo Reis

This paper asks how a currency achieves international status — moving from zero to positive cross-border use — and whether deliberate central bank policy can accelerate that transition. The authors …

Serdar Birinci · Fatih Karahan · Yusuf Mercan · Kurt See

Overview Research question. The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly …

Ke-Li Xu

This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …

Eric Anderson · Sergio Rebelo · Arlene Wong

Anderson, Rebelo, and Wong study the behavior of markups in the retail sector across regions and over time, using a combination of firm-level Compustat data and product-level scanner data from two …

GEORGE J. BRATSIOTIS · KASUN D. PATHIRAGE

This paper introduces a four-agent estimated New Keynesian DSGE model—comprising banked simple households, underbanked simple households, firm owners, and bank owners—to examine agent-specific and …

Luca Fornaro · Federica Romei

In a multicountry model with nominal wage rigidities, two sectors (tradable with convex supply, nontradable with flat supply), and free capital mobility, the paper studies optimal monetary policy …

Zhesheng Qiu · Yicheng Wang · Le Xu · Francesco Zanetti

This paper studies the design of monetary policy in a multi-sector small open economy with domestic input-output linkages and cross-border production networks, under nominal price rigidities in …

Luis G. Hernández-Román

This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve’s historical response, and …

Sebastian Schmidt

The paper builds a discrete-time DSGE model with Calvo sticky prices in which the public sector has two feedback rules that can hit corners, generating endogenous shifts between an …

Camelia Minoiu · Rebecca Zarutskie · Andrei Zlate

Overview Research Question. Minoiu, Zarutskie, and Zlate ask whether participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency facility launched in mid-2020 to channel credit …

Peter Andre · Ingar Haaland · Christopher Roth · Mirko Wiederholt · Johannes Wohlfart

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates two related empirical questions in the context of the historic surge in US inflation in late 2021 and 2022: (1) What narratives—causal …

Yuteng Cheng · Ryuichiro Izumi

This paper examines how the degree of user anonymity built into a central bank digital currency (CBDC) affects bank lending decisions and what this implies for the optimal design of CBDC anonymity. …

RICHARD DENNIS · TATIANA KIRSANOVA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether …

Peter Maxted · David Laibson · Benjamin Moll

Layer 1 — Summary Maxted, Laibson, and Moll study fiscal and monetary policy in a partial-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model in which homeowners have present-biased time preferences (Instantaneous …

Yuliya Rychalovska · Sergey Slobodyan · Rafael Wouters

This paper asks whether Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data can be efficiently integrated into medium-scale DSGE models, and whether models with imperfectly rational expectations based on …

Ojasvita Bahl · Chetan Ghate · Debdulal Mallick

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) routinely intervene in agricultural markets — procuring grain and redistributing it …

Henrique S. Basso · Omar Rachedi

Robot Adoption and Inflation Dynamics Research Question Basso and Rachedi investigate how robot adoption influences inflation dynamics — specifically, whether the surge in automation during the 2000s …

Tom D. Holden

The paper proposes and analyzes real rate rules — monetary policy rules of the form i_t = r_t + φπ_t (φ > 1), where r_t is the current-period real interest rate observed via TIPS yields or …

François Le Grand · Alaïs Martin-Baillon · Xavier Ragot

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should monetary policy deviate from price stability to address redistributive concerns in an economy with heterogeneous agents? The paper jointly solves for …

James Bullard · Alex Grimaud · Isabelle Salle · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Why did the 2021–2023 US inflation surge end in a soft landing — disinflation without a major recession — while the Volcker disinflation of 1979–1987 required …

MASAZUMI HATTORI · TOMOHIDE MINEYAMA · JOUCHI NAKAJIMA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal …

Jesper Böjeryd · Roine Vestman · Björn Tyrefors · Dany Kessel

This paper estimates a causal housing wealth effect on consumption using a quasi-natural experiment in Stockholm, Sweden. The identification exploits an unanticipated political decision — announced in …

Masao Fukui · Emi Nakamura · Jón Steinsson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question How does an exchange rate depreciation causally affect macroeconomic outcomes? The paper asks whether depreciations are expansionary or contractionary, and through …

Karlye Dilts Stedman · Andrew Hanson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper asks why unconventional monetary policy (UMP) spillovers from the European Central Bank (ECB) to the U.S. Treasury yield curve vary so substantially over …

Sebastian Heise · Jeremy Pearce · Jacob P. Weber

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Which measures of labor market tightness best predict nominal wage inflation, and do standard measures such as the unemployment rate and the …