Methodology

Noah Williams

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis — “periods of stability lead to …

Fatih Guvenen · Alisdair McKay · Conor Ryan

Layer 1: Overview Guvenen, McKay, and Ryan estimate a stochastic income process for US male workers that simultaneously matches five empirical regularities from Social Security Administration …

Lukasz Rachel

Layer 1: Overview This paper builds a tractable, fully analytical version of the workhorse macro-epidemiology (“econ-epi”) model and uses it to characterize how susceptible individuals …

Andrew Y. Chen · Francisco Palomino

Layer 1: Overview Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic …

Peyman Firouzi Naeim · David W Johnston · Maryam Naghsh-Nejad

Layer 1: Overview This paper examines how workplace environments shape the economic consequences that fall on mothers — but not fathers — when a child is diagnosed with cancer. The motivation is a gap …

Axel Gottfries

Layer 1: Overview This paper resolves a long-standing theoretical impasse in labor search models: how to model wage bargaining when workers search on the job (OJS) and the quit rate depends on the …

Réka Juhász (University of British Columbia · CEPR · NBER) · Shogo Sakabe (AI Lab · CyberAgent · Japan) · David E. Weinstein (Columbia University · NBER · CEPR)

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why did the First Industrial Revolution (IR) spread to Meiji Japan—and to essentially no other non-Western country—during the first wave of …

Antoine Bertheau · Rune Vejlin

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. On-the-job search models typically organize firms along a “job ladder” — a common ranking by workers of available jobs — but they …

Lucas Corrêa-Dias (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV) · Jordan J Norris (New York University Abu Dhabi) · Heitor S Pellegrina (University of Notre Dame)

Layer 1: Overview Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Layer 1: Overview Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) …

Stephen Ayerst · Loren Brandt · Diego Restuccia

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how institutional distortions to factor markets affect not only the static allocation of inputs across farms but also the dynamic choices — crop selection and …

Eric Jondeau · Gregory Levieuge · Jean-Guillaume Sahuc · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether public subsidies to green-technology producers, financed by a carbon tax, can materially reduce the macroeconomic cost of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by …

Robert P Lieli (Central European University · Austria); Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu (Universidad Nacional de Tucuman · Argentina)

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call …

Rodrigo Adão · Costas Arkolakis · Federico Esposito

Layer 1: Overview How do international trade shocks propagate through spatially connected regional labor markets, and how large are the general equilibrium effects that standard shift-share …

Flavien Moreau · Ludovic Panon

Layer 1: Overview Moreau and Panon ask how much cartels cost the aggregate economy — in terms of both total factor productivity and welfare — and find the losses are considerably larger than the …

S. Borağan Aruoba · Thomas Drechsel

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate “shocks” — changes in interest rates that are not …

William A. Branch

Layer 1: Overview Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role …

Giorgio Chiovelli (Universidad de Montevideo); Stelios Michalopoulos (Brown University · CEPR · NBER); Elias Papaioannou (London Business School · CEPR); Tanner Regan (George Washington University)

Layer 1: Overview Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and …

Holger Breinlich · Elsa Leromain · Dennis Novy · Thomas Sampson

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How does import liberalization affect a country’s export performance and welfare? Economic theory (Graham 1923, Ethier 1982, Krugman 1984) …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Ari Kutai · Rafi Melnick

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, …

Sebastian Ellingsen

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the location of economic activity adapts to changes in the location of trading opportunities, or whether historical patterns of trade permanently fix where …

Ariel Karlinsky · Moses Shayo

Layer 1: Overview Karlinsky and Shayo ask which governments manipulate public information, in which direction, and by how much — questions that are normally intractable because the ground truth is …

Giovanni Cespa · Xavier Vives

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks why market liquidity sometimes behaves in a stabilizing way (an illiquidity hike curbs liquidity demand and attracts liquidity …

Barton H. Hamilton · Andrés Hincapié · Emma C. Kalish · Nicholas W. Papageorge

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why medical innovation can widen health disparities even when it unambiguously improves health for everyone who takes it. The authors argue that the standard …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the …

Minsu Chang · Frank Schorfheide

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how conventional and informational monetary policy shocks affect the cross-sectional distributions of labor earnings, consumption, and financial income in the United …

Vahagn Jerbashian

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the elasticities of substitution between labor, information and communication technology (ICT) and intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital …

Davin Chor · Edwin L.-C. Lai

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of endogenous growth driven by cumulative innovation, and uses it to characterize optimal patent policy — both for patent …

Kee-Youn Kang · Zijian Wang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem …

Mohamad Adhami · Mark Bils · Charles I. Jones · Peter J. Klenow

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks how much economic progress looks different when one applies a total utilitarian welfare criterion — counting every person’s flow utility — rather than the …

Matthew Klepacz

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: …

Weizheng Lai · Lixin Colin Xu · Li Yang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How do civil wars affect long-term development, and through which institutional mechanisms? The paper studies the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864) in …

Ferdinando Monte · Charly Porcher · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Layer 1: Overview Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg ask why remote work surged abruptly and permanently after COVID-19 despite information-technology advances raising it only marginally between 1980 …

Scott French · Tess M. Stafford

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large empirical literature uses micro data to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of labor supply, a parameter crucial for …

Sakai Ando · Tamon Asonuma · Prachi Mishra · Alexandre Sollaci

Layer 1: Overview Sovereign debt restructuring is a central tool for countries in debt distress, yet surprisingly little evidence exists on whether it actually reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio — the …

Esther Ann Bøler · Andreas Moxnes · Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe

Layer 1: Overview Firms that invest heavily in intangible assets — patents, R&D, software — face a structural financing disadvantage: intangibles offer limited collateral value to banks, so …

Xavier Cirera (World Bank) · Diego Comin (Dartmouth College) · Marcio Cruz (IFC · World Bank Group)

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How sophisticated are the technologies establishments actually use, and how close are they to the world frontier? Traditional measures (since …

Russell Cooper · Ozgen Ozturk

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but …

Alessandra Fenizia (The George Washington University) · Nicholas Li (The George Washington University) · Luca Citino (Bank of Italy)

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll tax reductions as a tool for stimulating labor demand among marginalized workers, using a natural experiment from Italy. …

Corina Boar · Denis Gorea · Virgiliu Midrigan

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. A large literature argues that credit constraints are the dominant financial friction holding private businesses below their optimal scale, so that …

Jean-Félix Brouillette

Layer 1: Overview Women accounted for only 3% of U.S. inventors in 1976 and still just 14% in 2023, a pace of convergence far slower than in law (3% to 49%) or medicine (6% to 46%) over the same …

Hideki Nakamura · Masakatsu Nakamura · Shota Moriwaki

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks a foundational question: can the economy-wide degree of automation be measured coherently from standard macroeconomic data, without relying on technology-specific …

Julián Costas-Fernández (University of Surrey · UK); José-Alberto Guerra (Universidad de los Andes · Colombia); Myra Mohnen (University of Ottawa and CEP LSE · Canada)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Kai Carstensen · Stefan Lautenbacher · Manuel Menkhoff · Martin Schneider

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but …

Horng Chern Wong

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do some firms pay persistently higher wages for observably similar workers, and what role do firms’ product-market power …

Drago Bergholt · Fabio Canova · Francesco Furlanetto · Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli · Pål Ulvedal

Layer 1: Overview The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by …

RYUICHIRO IZUMI · YANG LI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Asset fire sales were a defining feature of the 2007-08 crisis, and post-crisis reforms (Basel III liquidity requirements, Money Market Mutual Fund …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers …

Antoine L. Noël · Hongfei Sun

Layer 1: Overview Noël and Sun build an information-based theory of capital structure designed to explain the diversity of observed firm financing behavior and the coexistence of distinct optimal …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

Layer 1: Overview This paper revisits the “reversal puzzle” — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian …

Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo · Iván Payá

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of …

David Berger · Thomas Hasenzagl · Kyle Herkenhoff · Simon Mongey · Eric A. Posner

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Antitrust review of mergers has historically focused almost entirely on harm to consumers (product-market monopoly), ignoring harm to workers …

Matthias Gnewuch · Donghai Zhang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for …

MELTEM CHADWICK · RENNAE CHERRY · JAQUESON K. GALIMBERTI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household …

TAKAO ASANO · YUSUKE OSAKI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the “precautionary saving motive.” The …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, …

Pasqualina Arca · Gianfranco Atzeni · Luca G. Deidda

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing …