Macroeconomics

Pedro Bordalo · Nicola Gennaioli · Giacomo Lanzani · Andrei Shleifer

Bordalo, Gennaioli, Lanzani, and Shleifer develop a cognitive theory of choice in which a decision maker’s attention to the features of options is determined by her categorization of the current …

Davide Viviano · Kaspar Wüthrich · Paul Niehaus

This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what …

Marco Bassetto · David S Miller

Overview Research Question. Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to …

Joel P. Flynn · George Nikolakoudis · Karthik A. Sastry

Research Question Modern macroeconomic models of aggregate supply universally restrict firms to price-setting — committing to a price and supplying whatever quantity the market demands. Flynn, …

Daria Finocchiaro · Philippe Weil

Research Question. Finocchiaro and Weil ask whether financial development necessarily promotes long-run economic growth, or whether congestion externalities in R&D markets can offset — and even …

Robert W. Hahn · Nathaniel Hendren · Robert D. Metcalfe · Ben Sprung-Keyser

This paper extends and applies the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) framework to evaluate the welfare consequences of 96 climate-related tax and spending policies in the United States. The MVPF …

Karl M. Aspelund · Anna Russo

This paper investigates the problem of additionality — the likelihood that a conservation action is marginal to (i.e., caused by) an incentive — in the United States Department of Agriculture’s …

Jess Benhabib · Feng Dong · Pengfei Wang · Zhenyang Xu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Why do corporate defaults cluster in recurring episodes rather than occurring smoothly? The paper asks whether observable fundamental factors — firm …

Marco Errico · Danial Lashkari

Errico and Lashkari address two intertwined problems in the measurement of aggregate price indices: how to account for quality change and variety entry/exit when the demand system is not CES, and how …

Christian Bayer · Ralph Luetticke · M. Weiss · Yannik Winkelmann

This paper introduces the Distributional Endogenous Gridpoint Method (DEGM), a novel numerical technique for solving the distributional dynamics that arise in heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models. …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler · Simone Lenzu · Joris Tielens

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether …

Felipe Del Canto · John Grigsby · Eric Qian · Conor Walsh

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks whether inflationary shocks are regressive, and demonstrates that the answer depends critically on the source of the shock. A single aggregate …

Ping Wang · Tsz-Nga Wong

Wang and Wong develop a continuous-time labor-search model to assess the dynamic effects of generative AI (GenAI) on labor productivity and unemployment. The paper is motivated by conflicting …

Stephan Lauermann · Asher Wolinsky

This paper develops an auction model that jointly incorporates three frictions pervading informal price-formation processes: (1) costly recruitment by the seller, (2) costly participation by bidders, …

Vitaly M. Bord · Agnes Kovacs · Patrick Moran

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should regulators restrict banks from proactively raising credit card limits using machine-learning algorithms, and if so, how? The paper asks: to what extent are …

Daron Acemoglu · Pascual Restrepo

Acemoglu and Restrepo examine the effects of automation in economies where labor market distortions cause some workers to earn rents—wages above their opportunity cost or outside option. The central …

Cooper Howes · Gregory Weitzner

Bank Information Production Over the Business Cycle Research Question Banks produce private information about borrowers that is inherently unobservable to outside researchers. Howes and Weitzner ask …

Bruno Pellegrino · Enrico Spolaore · Romain Wacziarg

Overview Research Question. Why do observed international investment positions and cross-country differences in rates of return to capital fail to conform to a frictionless capital-market benchmark? …

Almut Balleer · Georg Duernecker · Susanne Forstner · Johannes Goensch

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks two questions: (1) How do workers’ biased expectations about job finding and job separation shape the labor market equilibrium and wages? (2) …

Ariel T Burstein · Vasco M Carvalho · Basile Grassi

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper asks how firm-level, sector-level, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation, and whether a single structural model can …

Minsu Chang · Hanbaek Lee

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment, specifically by incorporating firm-level investment decisions — a dimension absent from …

Robert M. Anderson · Haosui Duanmu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Anderson and Duanmu (2025) ask how general equilibrium (GE) interactions — factor reallocation across sectors, capital misallocation under climate uncertainty, and …

Francesco Lippi · Elia Moracci

Lippi and Moracci (2026) ask how euro area households choose between cash and card payments, and whether existing theoretical models can explain observed behavior. They draw on ECB payment diary …

Matti Liski · François Salanie

This paper develops a general model of experimentation under catastrophe risk in which the catastrophe is triggered when a stock variable exceeds an unknown threshold, but occurs only after a …

Michael Ehrmann · Phillipp Gnan · Kilian Rieder

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three …

Manuel Amador · Christopher Phelan

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? …

Raj Chetty · Will Dobbie · Benjamin Goldman · Sonya R Porter · Crystal S Yang

This paper documents sharp divergent trends in intergenerational economic mobility by race and class in the United States across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, and investigates the causal mechanisms …

Paola Manzini · Marco Mariotti · Levent Ülkü

Layer 1 — Overview This paper develops a unified choice-theoretic framework in which agents evaluate alternatives not in isolation but relative to their opportunity costs — the alternatives they …

Francesco Giovanardi · Matthias Kaldorf

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks two related questions about the intersection of climate policy and bank capital regulation. First, can differentiated bank capital requirements — …

Alexander M Jakobsen

This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes’ rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals …

Takuo Sugaya · Alexander Wolitzky

This paper asks how a third-party intermediary (an “algorithm”) that observes market demand or costs superior to competing firms should optimally disclose that information to maximize the …

J. Carter Braxton

This comment, written by J. Carter Braxton (University of Wisconsin), discusses the paper “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong (2025), which develops …

Miao Ben Zhang

This paper is a published comment by Miao Ben Zhang (USC Marshall School of Business) on Mihet, Rishabh, and Gomes (2025), “Is It AI or Data That Drives Market Power?” Zhang identifies …

Marco Cosconati · Yi Xin · Fan Wu · Yizhou Jin

This paper studies imperfect competition in selection markets where competing firms have heterogeneous information about consumers — a layer of asymmetry distinct from the classic buyer-seller …

Ippei Fujiwara · Kiminori Matsuyama

Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …

Walter Beckert · Howard Smith · Yuya Takahashi

Research Question How does individually negotiated pricing — where buyers make discrete choices among differentiated products and negotiate transaction-specific prices — affect market power and merger …

Ilwoo Hwang · Kyungmin Kim · Raphael Boleslavsky

Hwang, Kim, and Boleslavsky study how firms in an oligopoly simultaneously choose prices and advertising strategies, where advertising is modeled as the choice of how much product information to …

Fernando Alvarez · Katarína Borovičková · Robert Shimer

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks two related questions. First, can one develop a robust, distribution-free estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of …

Emil Holst Partsch · Ivan Petrella · Emiliano Santoro

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two …

Andreas Haupt · Zoë Hitzig

Haupt and Hitzig introduce a framework for comparing the privacy properties of different mechanism protocols. The core research question is: when a designer commits to implementing a social choice …

Frank Yang

This paper studies when a principal can improve upon simple one-dimensional mechanisms by also deploying costly nonprice screening instruments — actions that are socially wasteful yet potentially …

Myrto Kalouptsidi · Yuichi Kitamura · Lucas Lima · Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

Research Question. Discrete choice data identify only differences in agents’ utilities, not utility levels. In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models this means many policy-relevant …

Andrea Chiavari

This paper asks how rising returns to scale in production contributed to three concurrent U.S. secular trends since 1980: declining business dynamism, rising markups, and growing firm expenditures on …

Marek Ignaszak · Petr Sedláček

This paper asks whether firm-level customer acquisition — distinct from productivity differences — is a quantitatively important driver of aggregate economic growth, and whether ignoring it distorts …

Pol Campos-Mercade · Lorenz Goette · Thomas Graeber · Alexandre Kellogg · Charles Sprenger

This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …

Victor Chernozhukov · Kaspar Wuthrich · Yinchu Zhu

Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Chen Qiu · Jörg Stoye

This paper applies classical statistical decision theory (Wald 1950) to treatment choice problems where the data only partially identify payoff-relevant parameters. The policy maker chooses an action …

Nikhil Agarwal · Paulo Somaini

Agarwal and Somaini study demand estimation in markets where consumers face latent choice constraints — situations where a consumer’s effective choice set is determined not only by her …

Andreas Haller · Stefan Staubli · Josef Zweimüller

This paper develops a sufficient statistics framework for the welfare analysis of disability insurance (DI) policy reforms and applies it to two reform episodes in Austria. The framework derives …

Julien Bengui · Louphou Coulibaly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from …

Francesco Ferrante · Nils Gornemann

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Ferrante and Gornemann study the aggregate and redistributive effects of currency devaluations in emerging market economies, focusing on a feature that prior …

Panle Jia Barwick · Siyu Chen · Chao Fu · Teng Li

This paper estimates the causal effects of mobile app usage on college students’ academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes, while separately identifying behavioral …

Andreas Hornstein · Marios Karabarbounis · André Kurmann · Etienne Lalé · Lien Ta

This paper isolates the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on employment recovery, separating them from the simultaneously operating stimulative (demand) effects …

Anastasiia Antonova · Gernot J. Müller

This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …

El Hadi Caoui · Andrew Steck

This paper investigates how buyer demand for supplier diversification shapes entry incentives and market structure, using the global undersea fiber-optic cable industry as the empirical setting. The …

Daniel L. Greenwald · Adam Guren

Overview Research Question. To what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the 2000s housing boom and bust? The existing literature offers sharply divergent answers — ranging from …

Supreet Kaur · Sendhil Mullainathan · Suanna Oh · Frank Schilbach

Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive? Research Question The paper tests whether financial concerns distract workers sufficiently to meaningfully reduce their productivity, and whether …

Alec Brandon · Paul J Ferraro · John A List · Robert D Metcalfe · Michael K Price · Florian Rundhammer

This paper asks why the Home Energy Report (HER) — a widely deployed social-comparison nudge that shows households how their electricity consumption compares to their neighbors — produces behavioral …

Lee K. Davison · Carlos D. Ramirez

Overview Research question. Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Giacomo Lanzani

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that …

Cynthia L Doniger

Overview Research question. This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers’ educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare …

Gautam Gowrisankaran · Ashley Langer · Mar Reguant

This paper asks how rate-of-return (RoR) regulation in U.S. electricity markets affects the speed and efficiency of energy transitions, specifically the transition from coal to combined-cycle natural …

Ali Almelhem · Murat Iyigun · Austin Kennedy · Jared Rubin

This paper tests Joel Mokyr’s claim that Britain’s industrialization was preceded and enabled by a cultural shift — specifically, that Enlightenment ideals produced a …

Thomas R Covert · Ryan Kellogg

Covert and Kellogg study policies that aim to “keep carbon in the ground” by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment, with the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) as their empirical …

Brent Bundick · Isabel Cairó · Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in …

Ming Zeng · Guihai Zhao

Overview Research Question. What drives the joint historical dynamics of the term structure of equity yields and nominal bond yields — and can a single unified equilibrium model explain the …

Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks whether an explicit, global, closed-form solution exists for the consumption function in the standard income fluctuation problem with a borrowing …

Sergio Correia · Stephan Luck · Emil Verner

Correia, Luck, and Verner ask a foundational question in banking: why do banks fail? Specifically, they seek to adjudicate between two theoretical views — the solvency view (failures caused by …

Renato Faccini · Seungcheol Lee · Ralph Luetticke · Morten O. Ravn · Tobias Renkin

Overview Research Question. How do consumer credit spreads — the gap between household borrowing rates and deposit rates — affect aggregate business cycle dynamics and the distribution of consumption …

Kirstin Hubrich · Yves S. Schüler · Daniel Waggoner

This paper investigates the role of leverage of financial institutions in amplifying the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, with particular attention to whether that amplification …

Richard Audoly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question How do aggregate economic fluctuations reallocate workers across the firm productivity distribution over the business cycle? In particular, to what extent do …

Alessandro Moro · Valerio Nispi Landi

Moro and Nispi Landi develop FraNK, a multi-country New Keynesian model designed to study geoeconomic fragmentation — defined, following Aiyar et al. (2023), as a policy-driven reversal of economic …

Tan Gan · Nicholas Wu

This paper studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which an informed seller sells an experience good to a skeptical buyer who learns about the product through consumption. The central question …

Nava Ashraf · Maxim Bakhtin · Erica Field · Alessandra Voena · Roberta Ziparo

This paper investigates whether information asymmetries within households about maternal health risk can explain persistent spousal disagreement over fertility in a high-fertility, …

Eduardo Azevedo · Jonathan Beauchamp · Richard Karlsson Linnér

This paper asks how much adverse selection would arise in critical illness insurance (CII) markets if consumers can observe polygenic indexes (PGIs) — genetic risk scores derived from millions of …

Timothy Besley · Christopher Dann · Sacha Dray

This paper investigates whether individuals who have experienced stronger GDP growth over their lifetimes are more likely to trust their national government. The authors — Besley, Dann, and Dray — …

EMMANUEL DE VEIRMAN · JASPER DE JONG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The …

Karam Jo · Seula Kim

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Jo and Kim ask two related questions: (1) How do firms use different types of innovation when learning others’ technology takes time? (2) How does this …

Carlos Arteta · Steven Kamin · Franz U. Ruch

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the …

Wooyong Lee

This paper studies linear panel data models where regression coefficients are individual-specific (random coefficients) and regressors may be predetermined — that is, sequentially exogenous rather …

Aprajit Mahajan · Christian Michel · Alessandro Tarozzi

This paper addresses two related problems: the formal identification of time-inconsistent preferences in dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneous types, and the structural …

Jorge García-Hombrados · Marcel Jansen · Angel Martínez · Berkay Özcan · Pedro Rey-Biel · Antonio Roldán-Monés

This paper investigates how the ideological alignment between knowledge-disseminating institutions and policymakers affects the adoption of evidence-based policies. The core research question is …

Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in …

Joaquin Blaum · Federico Esposito · Sebastian Heise

Blaum, Esposito, and Heise study how supply chain risk — specifically, the risk of unexpected shipping delays caused by ocean weather conditions — affects U.S. manufacturing firms’ import …

Kai Gehring · Paul Schaudt

This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence that Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) — a remote-sensing-triggered, automated payout scheme for pastoralists — substantially reduces …

Bruce E Hansen

Hansen (2025) makes a theoretical case for replacing the conventional cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) and heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors with a specific jackknife variance …

Serdar Birinci · Fatih Karahan · Yusuf Mercan · Kurt See

Overview Research question. The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly …

Daniel Lewis · Davide Melcangi · Laura Pilossoph

Lewis, Melcangi, and Pilossoph estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using the 2008 Economic Stimulus Act (ESA) rebate payments, deploying Gaussian …

Chun-Che Chi

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt — specifically, the degree to which a borrowing country’s external debt is concentrated among a …

Jonathan Créchet · Etienne Lalé · Linas Tarasonis

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks: what are the sources of cross-country differences in aggregate employment across European economies, and which types of worker flows — between …

Alexander W. Cappelen · Shachar Kariv · Erik Ø. Sørensen · Bertil Tungodden · William R. Zame

This paper asks whether an individual’s attitude toward risk in the personal domain (choices affecting only oneself) can be linked to that same individual’s attitude toward risk in the …

Amy Finkelstein · Matthew J Notowidigdo · Frank Schilbach · Jonathan Zhang

Overview Research Question. Does the Great Recession reduce or increase mortality, and what are the welfare implications of incorporating recession-induced mortality changes into standard …

Ke-Li Xu

This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …

Daniel Björkegren · Joshua E. Blumenstock · Samsun Knight

This paper addresses the problem of algorithmic manipulation: when consequential decisions are encoded in machine learning algorithms, individuals strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired …

KOZO UEDA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) stems from temporary circumstances (e.g., transient wealth shocks that tighten …

Matthew Elliott · Andrea Galeotti · Andrew Koh · Wenhao Li

This paper asks what market outcomes an information designer — modeled as an internet platform that knows consumers’ preferences — can achieve by choosing what information to disclose to …

Niko Jaakkola · Florian Wagener

This paper by Jaakkola and Wagener addresses a long-standing open problem in the theory of differential games: how to make Markov-perfect equilibria (MPE) well-defined when best-response policy …

Eric Anderson · Sergio Rebelo · Arlene Wong

Anderson, Rebelo, and Wong study the behavior of markups in the retail sector across regions and over time, using a combination of firm-level Compustat data and product-level scanner data from two …

Alberto Bisin · Giulia Tura

Bisin and Tura study the cultural integration of immigrants in Italy by estimating a structural model of marital matching embedded with intra-household decisions — fertility, socialization of …

Vivek Bhattacharya · Gastón Illanes · David Stillerman

This paper by Bhattacharya, Illanes, and Stillerman makes two contributions to the debate over US antitrust enforcement stringency. First, it documents the price, quantity, and assortment effects of a …

Jacob D Orchard · Valerie A Ramey · Johannes F Wieland

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. Do the high marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) estimated in the leading household studies of the 2008 U.S. tax rebates—particularly Parker et al. (2013), …

Camelia Minoiu · Rebecca Zarutskie · Andrei Zlate

Overview Research Question. Minoiu, Zarutskie, and Zlate ask whether participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency facility launched in mid-2020 to channel credit …

Peter Andre · Ingar Haaland · Christopher Roth · Mirko Wiederholt · Johannes Wohlfart

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates two related empirical questions in the context of the historic surge in US inflation in late 2021 and 2022: (1) What narratives—causal …

Michael P Leung · Hyungsik Roger Moon

This paper proves a central limit theorem (CLT) for network formation models with strategic interactions and homophilous agents, addressing a foundational inferential gap in the econometrics of large …

Volker Britz · Hans Gersbach

This paper revisits the open rule legislative bargaining model of Baron and Ferejohn (1989) — the dominant workhorse model in political economy for analyzing how legislatures divide a surplus — and …

Timothy Christensen · Hyungsik Roger Moon · Frank Schorfheide

This paper derives asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when the payoffs associated with some choices are only partially identified. The research question is: …

Gabriel Kreindler · Arya Gaduh · Tilman Graff · Rema Hanna · Benjamin A. Olken

This paper studies how commuter preferences over wait times, travel times, and transfers should shape the design of urban bus networks, using the world’s largest Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system — …

Gene M Grossman · Elhanan Helpman · Alejandro Sabal

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Grossman, Helpman, and Sabal ask what market failures arise in vertical supply chains with multiple production tiers, limited (non-anonymous) supply networks, …

Karun Adusumilli

This paper addresses a practical gap in the inference literature for sequential and adaptive experiments: while the design of such experiments has been studied extensively, there is little theory …

Klaus M Schmidt · Jonas von Wangenheim

Schmidt and von Wangenheim develop a dynamic model of organizational change in which workers have reference-dependent preferences — specifically loss aversion and social comparisons — to explain …

Fabio Bertolotti

This paper examines how anticipated changes in patent term affect R&D and innovation, using the U.S. ratification of the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement in …

Nail Kashaev · Natalia Lazzati · Ruli Xiao

This paper develops a general nonparametric model of discrete choice in which peers influence agents through two distinct channels: (1) the set of alternatives an agent considers (consideration set …

Matthew Baron · Luc Laeven · Julien Pénasse · Yevhenii Usenko

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates two interrelated questions about historical banking crises: (1) whether bank losses during banking crises are primarily temporary or …

Beat Hintermann · Beaumont Schoeman · Joseph Molloy · Thomas Götschi · Alberto Castro · Christopher Tchervenkov · Uros Tomic · Kay W Axhausen

This paper reports on the MOBIS experiment, a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) implementing a multi-modal Pigovian transport pricing scheme in urban areas of German- and French-speaking …

RICHARD DENNIS · TATIANA KIRSANOVA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether …

José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez · Salvador Gil-Guirado · Nicholas Ryan

This paper studies rainmaking as an instrumental religious belief. The central research question is: why do people believe that prayer can bring rain, even though it does not work? The authors develop …

Yuliya Rychalovska · Sergey Slobodyan · Rafael Wouters

This paper asks whether Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data can be efficiently integrated into medium-scale DSGE models, and whether models with imperfectly rational expectations based on …

Lassi Ahlvik · Jørgen Juel Andersen · Jonas Hveding Hamang · Torfinn Harding

This paper asks three questions about supply-side climate policies in the oil market: how do oil companies respond to production-based taxes; what are the aggregate effects of such taxes on global CO2 …

Ian Schofield Ball · Deniz Kattwinkel

Ball and Kattwinkel study quota mechanisms — linking mechanisms that impose aggregate constraints on agents’ reports across multiple decision problems — and provide the first theoretical …

Ayşe İmrohoroğlu · Çağrı S. Kumru · Jiu Lian

This paper asks whether racial differences in labor income can simultaneously explain both the crime gap and the wealth gap between Black and White individuals in the United States. The authors build …

Haruki Kono · Kota Saito · Alec Sandroni

This paper addresses a foundational gap in the random utility model (RUM) literature: existing axiomatizations by Falmagne (1978) and McFadden and Richter (1990) assume that whenever a menu is …

Boaz Abramson · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abramson and Van Nieuwerburgh study Rent Guarantee Insurance (RGI), a product in which an insurer pays the landlord on behalf of a tenant who defaults on rent due to a negative income or health …

ANNA GRODECKA‐MESSI · JIEYING LI · XIN ZHANG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates how rising house prices affect the composition of household debt portfolios in Sweden during 2010–2014. Specifically, the authors ask …

Ethan Ligon

This paper identifies and corrects a fundamental flaw in the standard methodology for testing efficient risk-sharing when shocks are covariate (affecting common prices rather than only individual …

Henrique S. Basso · Omar Rachedi

Robot Adoption and Inflation Dynamics Research Question Basso and Rachedi investigate how robot adoption influences inflation dynamics — specifically, whether the surge in automation during the 2000s …

Andrew B. Abel · Stavros Panageas

Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality Research Question The paper addresses two questions about government debt rollover. First, a positive …

Dirk Bergemann · Tibor Heumann · Michael C. Wang

Bergemann, Heumann, and Wang study consumer surplus when a monopolist simultaneously engages in second-degree price discrimination (screening consumers within each market segment through …

Deniz Dutz · Ingrid Huitfeldt · Santiago Lacouture · Magne Mogstad · Alexander Torgovitsky · Winnie van Dijk

This paper addresses nonresponse bias in surveys — the distortion that arises when survey participants differ systematically from nonparticipants in ways that correlate with the survey’s …

Oren Danieli

This paper proposes a model of skill-replacing routine-biased technological change (SR-RBTC) to explain patterns in U.S. bottom-half wage inequality that standard RBTC models cannot account for. The …

James Bullard · Alex Grimaud · Isabelle Salle · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Why did the 2021–2023 US inflation surge end in a soft landing — disinflation without a major recession — while the Volcker disinflation of 1979–1987 required …

Julio L. Ortiz

This paper investigates the macroeconomic consequences of widespread just-in-time (JIT) inventory management, documenting a fundamental trade-off: JIT raises firm profitability and reduces micro-level …

Agneta Berge · Ann-Sofie Kolm · Per Krusell

This paper asks whether a labor market with search-and-matching frictions and firms producing under decreasing returns to labor is better characterized by in-house hiring with intra-firm wage …

Nicolas Coeurdacier · Florian Oswald · Marc Teignier

This paper asks how cities grow in the process of structural transformation — specifically, whether urban expansion occurs at the intensive margin (higher density within a fixed area) or the extensive …

Felipe Brugués

Overview This paper studies the efficiency of self-enforced relational agreements in manufacturing supply chains when sellers have market power and contracts cannot be externally enforced. The setting …

MASAZUMI HATTORI · TOMOHIDE MINEYAMA · JOUCHI NAKAJIMA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal …

Soonwoo Kwon · Jonathan Roth

Kwon and Roth develop econometric tests for the “sharp null of full mediation”: the hypothesis that a treatment D affects an outcome Y only through a specified mechanism (or set of …

Bryony Reich

This paper examines how the architecture of social networks shapes the success or failure of technology diffusion when adoption decisions exhibit strategic complementarities. The research question is: …

Greg Howard · Hansen Shao

Howard and Shao document a new empirical regularity in U.S. internal migration: the t-year interstate migration rate — defined as the share of people living in a different state than they did t years …

Zihao Li · Jonathan Libgober

This paper develops a dynamic principal-agent model in which a principal seeks to select exactly one project from a stream of possibilities emerging over time, while a biased agent (who wants any …

Ravi Jagadeesan · Alexander Teytelboym

This paper develops an economic theory of competitive equilibrium with indivisible goods that accommodates both complementarities and substitutabilities. The central research question is: what …

Matthew A. Masten · Alexandre Poirier

Masten and Poirier demonstrate a previously unrecognized asymmetry in the coefficient stability literature: depending on how omitted variable bias is measured, it can be substantially easier for …

Unknown

This paper asks why unemployment rates differ so persistently across local labor markets, and what role job creation and job destruction play in generating those differences. The authors document a …

Jesper Böjeryd · Roine Vestman · Björn Tyrefors · Dany Kessel

This paper estimates a causal housing wealth effect on consumption using a quasi-natural experiment in Stockholm, Sweden. The identification exploits an unanticipated political decision — announced in …

Javier D Donna · José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez

Donna and Espín-Sánchez investigate whether a market (sequential English auction) or a non-market institution (fixed quota) more efficiently allocates an intermediate good — irrigation water — when …

David A. Green · Ben M. Sand · Iain G. Snoddy · Jeanne Tschopp

This paper estimates the impact of unions on nonunion wage setting in the United States over the period 1980–2010, distinguishing two channels through which unions affect nonunion wages: (1) a …

Masao Fukui · Emi Nakamura · Jón Steinsson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question How does an exchange rate depreciation causally affect macroeconomic outcomes? The paper asks whether depreciations are expansionary or contractionary, and through …

Isaac Baley · Andrés Blanco

Overview Research question. How does partial capital irreversibility — arising from a wedge between the purchase price and the resale (discounted) price of capital — shape the persistence and …

Ronan C Lyons · Allison Shertzer · Rowena Gray · David Agorastos

Lyons, Shertzer, Gray, and Agorastos construct the first consistent, annual, quality-adjusted market rent and home sales price series for American cities spanning 1890–2006. The paper addresses a …

Susan Athey · Raj Chetty · Guido W Imbens · Hyunseung Kang

This paper addresses a fundamental challenge in program evaluation: primary outcomes of interest — such as lifetime earnings or long-term employment — are often observed only with lengthy delays, …

Sebastian Heise · Jeremy Pearce · Jacob P. Weber

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Which measures of labor market tightness best predict nominal wage inflation, and do standard measures such as the unemployment rate and the …

Paul Bouscasse · Emi Nakamura · Jón Steinsson

Overview Research Question. When did sustained productivity growth begin in England? This paper constructs new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870, with the goal of …

Christine Blandhol · John Bonney · Magne Mogstad · Alexander Torgovitsky

This paper asks: when does two-stage least squares (TSLS) with covariates actually estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE) — a non-negatively weighted average of causal effects for compliers …

Marcella Alsan · Yousra Neberai

This paper investigates a critical juncture in the development of national health insurance (NHI) in the United States: the post-World War II period when most peer nations moved to establish …

Greg Buchak · Gregor Matvos · Tomasz Piskorski · Amit Seru

This paper examines frictions in dealer intermediation in durable consumer goods markets, using iBuyers — technology-driven real estate companies such as Opendoor and Offerpad — as a lens. The central …