Macro-Dynamics

Noah Williams

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis — “periods of stability lead to …

Stephie Fried

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the distributional welfare impacts of higher temperatures from climate change across income groups in the United …

Simon Johnson · Lukasz Rachel · Catherine Wolfram

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks what the optimal response of an exhaustible-resource producer is to sanctions in the form of a price cap, and how a sanctioning coalition should set the cap. The …

Fatih Guvenen · Alisdair McKay · Conor Ryan

Layer 1: Overview Guvenen, McKay, and Ryan estimate a stochastic income process for US male workers that simultaneously matches five empirical regularities from Social Security Administration …

Lukasz Rachel

Layer 1: Overview This paper builds a tractable, fully analytical version of the workhorse macro-epidemiology (“econ-epi”) model and uses it to characterize how susceptible individuals …

Andrew Y. Chen · Francisco Palomino

Layer 1: Overview Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic …

Axel Gottfries

Layer 1: Overview This paper resolves a long-standing theoretical impasse in labor search models: how to model wage bargaining when workers search on the job (OJS) and the quit rate depends on the …

Kjetil Storesletten · Bo Zhao · Fabrizio Zilibotti

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and …

Ana Fostel · John Geanakoplos · Gregory Phelan

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks why large gross financial flows exist between similarly rich countries (especially the U.S. and Europe), why financial integration raises rather than lowers asset …

Saki Bigio (University of California · Los Angeles) · Diego R Känzig (Northwestern University) · Pablo Sánchez (Northwestern University) · Conor Walsh (Columbia University)

Layer 1: Overview This paper quantifies the sources and distributional consequences of unexpected carbon price changes for European households using a money-metric welfare framework. The motivation is …

Antoine Bertheau · Rune Vejlin

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. On-the-job search models typically organize firms along a “job ladder” — a common ranking by workers of available jobs — but they …

Katharina Bergant · Prachi Mishra · Raghuram Rajan · Freddy Pinzon-Puerto

Layer 1: Overview This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and …

Julien Acalin · Laurence Ball

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Layer 1: Overview Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) …

Stephen Ayerst · Loren Brandt · Diego Restuccia

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how institutional distortions to factor markets affect not only the static allocation of inputs across farms but also the dynamic choices — crop selection and …

Philipp Hochmuth (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Per Krusell (Stockholm University; NBER; CEPR); Kurt Mitman (Stockholm University; CEPR; CEMFI; IZA)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the EU’s Fit-for-55 climate package will affect aggregate output and distribute its costs across the income distribution. The question matters …

Eugene Tan

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the illiquidity of entrepreneurial capital shapes investment dynamics and wealth inequality. The central question is whether entrepreneurship drives …

Ia Vardishvili

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. US cohorts of establishments born in recessions persistently employ fewer workers at entry and over their life cycle, yet are on average more …

Eric Jondeau · Gregory Levieuge · Jean-Guillaume Sahuc · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether public subsidies to green-technology producers, financed by a carbon tax, can materially reduce the macroeconomic cost of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by …

Ruixue Jia · Xiao Ma · Victoria Wenxin Xie

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what …

Tristany Armangüé-Jubert · Tancredi Rapone · Alessandro Ruggieri

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Firms are larger and grow faster over the life cycle in high-income countries, while labor markets in poorer countries are less competitive …

Alessandro Ferrari · Francisco Queirós

Layer 1: Overview Ferrari and Queirós ask why US recoveries have become progressively slower and argue that rising firm heterogeneity and market power — well-documented long-run trends — can …

Hiroshi Inokuma · Juan M. Sánchez

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how the well-documented slowdown in labor-force growth affects aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, a question that prior work on business dynamism had …

Rodrigo Adão · Costas Arkolakis · Federico Esposito

Layer 1: Overview How do international trade shocks propagate through spatially connected regional labor markets, and how large are the general equilibrium effects that standard shift-share …

Nick Pretnar · Maria Feldman

Layer 1: Overview The paper investigates why the U.S. health-services sector has simultaneously experienced a tripling of relative prices since 1948 and a rise in the personal consumption expenditure …

Flavien Moreau · Ludovic Panon

Layer 1: Overview Moreau and Panon ask how much cartels cost the aggregate economy — in terms of both total factor productivity and welfare — and find the losses are considerably larger than the …

S. Borağan Aruoba · Thomas Drechsel

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate “shocks” — changes in interest rates that are not …

Maria-Jose Carreras-Valle

Layer 1: Overview This paper documents and explains a previously unreported reversal in U.S. manufacturing inventory trends: after a 25-year secular decline, inventories-to-sales ratios have been …

Carlo Altavilla · Giacomo Carboni · Michele Lenza · Harald Uhlig

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether uncertainty in the interbank market — distinct from general macroeconomic uncertainty — raises the cost of bank credit to firms, and whether bank-specific …

Isabel Cairó · Avi Lipton

Layer 1: Overview This paper addresses two connected questions: why do Black workers face persistently higher and more volatile unemployment than white workers, and can the Federal Reserve’s …

Benjamin Bridgman · Berthold Herrendorf

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks why the U.S. labor share has declined over the postwar period, and whether rising markups or capital deepening (automation, falling capital prices) is the primary …

Christian Bredemeier (University of Wuppertal; IZA) · Babette Jansen (University of Antwerp) · Roland Winkler (University of Antwerp; Friedrich Schiller University Jena)

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes a novel fiscal transmission channel through which government spending expansions reduce employer monopsony power in the labor market, generating larger fiscal …

Andrea Ferrero · Maurizio Michael Habib · Livio Stracca · Fabrizio Venditti

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies …

Sebastian Ellingsen

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the location of economic activity adapts to changes in the location of trading opportunities, or whether historical patterns of trade permanently fix where …

Jianjun Miao · Zhouxiang Shen · Dongling Su

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how bank holdings of long-term government securities interact with interest-rate-driven monetary tightening to amplify macroeconomic downturns and generate banking …

Vincenzo De Lipsis (University of Southampton; Bartlett School · UCL); Matteo Deleidi (University of Bari Aldo Moro; IIPP · UCL); Mariana Mazzucato (IIPP · UCL); Paolo Agnolucci (Bartlett School · UCL; World Bank)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational …

Christiaan van der Kwaak (University of Groningen)

Layer 1: Overview When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by …

Hassan Afrouzi · Marina Halac · Kenneth Rogoff · Pierre Yared

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The …

Salomon Garcia-Villegas

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of the U.S. housing finance system that jointly determines mortgage credit and mortgage-backed security (MBS) issuance, …

Tuo Chen · Chang-Tai Hsieh · Zheng (Michael) Song

Layer 1: Overview Chen, Hsieh, and Song study the use of unofficial non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by China during the U.S.-China trade war of 2018–2019 and in the first year of the Phase 1 purchase …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler

Layer 1: Overview Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without …

Minsu Chang · Frank Schorfheide

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how conventional and informational monetary policy shocks affect the cross-sectional distributions of labor earnings, consumption, and financial income in the United …

Vahagn Jerbashian

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the elasticities of substitution between labor, information and communication technology (ICT) and intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital …

Thomas Douenne (University of Amsterdam); Albert Jan Hummel (University of Groningen); Marcelo Pedroni (Inter-American Development Bank; University of Amsterdam)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether inequality and redistributive taxation should make climate policy more or less ambitious, and how optimal carbon taxes interact with optimal income taxes when …

Frédéric Docquier (LISER · Luxembourg) · Stefano Iandolo (Università degli Studi di Salerno) · Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics · CEPII · LISER · CEPR) · Riccardo Turati (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona · IZA · RFBerlin) · Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (Université catholique de Louvain)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a …

Matthew Klepacz

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: …

Lukasz A. Drozd · Marcin Kolasa · Jaromir B. Nosal

Layer 1: Overview This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial …

Andrés Fernández · Daniel Guzman · Ruy Lama · Carlos Végh

Layer 1: Overview Developing and emerging economies exhibit procyclical fiscal policy on both the spending and taxation sides: government expenditures expand in booms and contract in recessions, and …

Ferdinando Monte · Charly Porcher · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Layer 1: Overview Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg ask why remote work surged abruptly and permanently after COVID-19 despite information-technology advances raising it only marginally between 1980 …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Debora Revoltella · Jan Svejnar · Christoph T. Weiss

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation …

Scott French · Tess M. Stafford

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large empirical literature uses micro data to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of labor supply, a parameter crucial for …

Martin Shu

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether worker self-selection, rather than slow technological progress, can explain the low measured labor productivity growth in the U.S. service sector — a …

Sushant Acharya · Jess Benhabib

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips …

Sjak Smulders · Sophie Zhou

Layer 1: Overview This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change …

Loren Brandt · Ruochen Dai · Gueorgui Kambourov · Kjetil Storesletten · Xiaobo Zhang

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies entrepreneurship and new firm creation in China through the lens of serial entrepreneurs (SEs) — individuals who establish more than one firm — contrasting them …

Heejeong Kim · Jung Hwan Kim

Layer 1: Overview U.S. outstanding student debt rose roughly 20-fold, from about $50 billion in 1985 to nearly $1 trillion in 2014 (about 7% of GDP), making it the second-largest form of household …

Sakai Ando · Tamon Asonuma · Prachi Mishra · Alexandre Sollaci

Layer 1: Overview Sovereign debt restructuring is a central tool for countries in debt distress, yet surprisingly little evidence exists on whether it actually reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio — the …

Esther Ann Bøler · Andreas Moxnes · Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe

Layer 1: Overview Firms that invest heavily in intangible assets — patents, R&D, software — face a structural financing disadvantage: intangibles offer limited collateral value to banks, so …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, …

Russell Cooper · Ozgen Ozturk

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but …

Corina Boar · Denis Gorea · Virgiliu Midrigan

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. A large literature argues that credit constraints are the dominant financial friction holding private businesses below their optimal scale, so that …

Hideki Nakamura · Masakatsu Nakamura · Shota Moriwaki

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks a foundational question: can the economy-wide degree of automation be measured coherently from standard macroeconomic data, without relying on technology-specific …

Eunkyung Lee

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. This paper asks how monetary policy transmits to corporate investment through bank credit, and specifically whether the relevant credit margin is …

Maximilian Konradt (Imperial College London); Giacomo Mangiante (Bank of Italy)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes economic costs that are unequally distributed across European regions, and whether …

Thomas Bourany (Columbia University · USA) · Jordan Rosenthal-Kay (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco · USA)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks who wins and loses from climate policies — carbon taxes, renewable subsidies, and carbon tariffs — across 193 heterogeneous countries, and by how much. The motivation …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Kai Carstensen · Stefan Lautenbacher · Manuel Menkhoff · Martin Schneider

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but …

Donggyu Lee

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and …

Horng Chern Wong

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do some firms pay persistently higher wages for observably similar workers, and what role do firms’ product-market power …

Michael W. L. Elsby · Axel Gottfries · Pawel Krolikowski · Gary Solon

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual …

Maria Alsina-Pujols

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how the threat of forced climate migration — international displacement driven by climate-induced natural disasters — should alter optimal carbon taxation. The …

Drago Bergholt · Fabio Canova · Francesco Furlanetto · Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli · Pål Ulvedal

Layer 1: Overview The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a …

Juan J Dolado · Etienne Lalé · Hélène Turon

Layer 1: Overview Dolado, Lalé, and Turon build a structural equilibrium model of the U.K. low-wage labour market to evaluate zero-hours contracts (ZHCs), employment agreements under which firms are …

BEHZAD DIBA · OLIVIER LOISEL

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts …

Chadwick Curtis · Julio Garín · Robert Lester

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the …

Christiaan van der Kwaak · Sweder van Wijnbergen

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic …

Hiona Balfoussia · Harris Dellas · Dimitris Papageorgiou

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies a transmission channel from sovereign fiscal weakness to banking performance that the literature has largely overlooked: government-provided deposit insurance, …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and why the type of employment — specifically public-sector employment — affects household saving rates in China. This …

Gene Ambrocio

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

Layer 1: Overview This paper revisits the “reversal puzzle” — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian …

CHARLES M. KAHN · DAVID MARSHALL · ROBERT L. MCDONALD

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a “market-maker of last …

CECILIA DASSATTI · RODRIGO LLUBERAS · FRANCESC RODRIGUEZ-TOUS

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Banks reluctant to recognize losses on troubled borrowers engage in “loan evergreening”—rolling over or extending credit to delay loss …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies’ foreign debt …

Richard Dennis · Oleg Kirsanov

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents “present bias” — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, …

Matthias Gnewuch · Donghai Zhang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for …

Christoph Hambel · Frederick van der Ploeg

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Central bankers, regulators, and investors increasingly worry about climate “transition risks” — abrupt shifts in climate policy, green …

Jay Hyun · Ziho Park · Vladimir Smirnyagin

Layer 1: Overview This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, …

Sebastian Graves · Victoria Gregory · Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas J. Sargent

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How does endogenizing retirement (career-length) choice change the labor-supply and human-capital implications of the canonical Heckman, Lochner, …

Masami Imai · Michiru Sawada

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends …

Carlo Altavilla · Refet S. Gürkaynak · Rogier Quaedvlieg

Layer 1: Overview This paper establishes basic facts about the external finance premium (EFP) faced by euro area firms borrowing from banks, and studies how monetary policy is transmitted to it. The …

Ricardo Duque Gabriel

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Public procurement accounts for roughly one-third of government spending (12.6% of GDP and 30% of total government expenditures in OECD countries in …

Marius Clemens · Stefan Gebauer · Tobias König

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European …