This paper asks what the optimal response of an exhaustible-resource producer is to sanctions in the form of a price cap, and how a sanctioning coalition should set the cap. The motivation is the …
The paper asks why large gross financial flows exist between similarly rich countries (especially the U.S. and Europe), why financial integration raises rather than lowers asset price volatility, and …
This paper investigates why non-U.S. central banks accumulate large holdings of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, focusing on a previously under-emphasized motive: the currency mismatch of …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 10 Apr 2026Published Jul 2026
Research question and motivation: Why did the First Industrial Revolution (IR) spread to Meiji Japan—and to essentially no other non-Western country—during the first wave of globalization? The paper …
This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and their quality as …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 20 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and input-intensive farming. This …
How do international trade shocks propagate through spatially connected regional labor markets, and how large are the general equilibrium effects that standard shift-share specifications miss? Adão, …
Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called "race to the bottom" (RTB) hypothesis. The question has high stakes: advocates …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 12 Jan 2026
Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and over time has …
This paper documents and explains a previously unreported reversal in U.S. manufacturing inventory trends: after a 25-year secular decline, inventories-to-sales ratios have been rising steadily since …
This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies (EMEs) and (ii) the …
This paper asks whether the location of economic activity adapts to changes in the location of trading opportunities, or whether historical patterns of trade permanently fix where cities emerge and …
Chen, Hsieh, and Song study the use of unofficial non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by China during the U.S.-China trade war of 2018–2019 and in the first year of the Phase 1 purchase agreement (2020). The …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 16 Feb 2026
This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a unified empirical case …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Apr 2026
This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial shocks (following …
Developing and emerging economies exhibit procyclical fiscal policy on both the spending and taxation sides: government expenditures expand in booms and contract in recessions, and tax rates fall in …
This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation — and asks how …
Sovereign debt restructuring is a central tool for countries in debt distress, yet surprisingly little evidence exists on whether it actually reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio — the metric used in …
Proposals to tax top wealth (e.g., Saez and Zucman, 2019) face a recurring objection in public debate: that the wealthy will emigrate en masse and, because many are entrepreneurs, their departure will …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 23 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
Research question and motivation: How sophisticated are the technologies establishments actually use, and how close are they to the world frontier? Traditional measures (since Ryan-Gross 1943 and …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 10 Jan 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper asks whether carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes economic costs that are unequally distributed across European regions, and whether those economic costs …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 24 Feb 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper asks who wins and loses from climate policies — carbon taxes, renewable subsidies, and carbon tariffs — across 193 heterogeneous countries, and by how much. The motivation is that the …
This paper asks how the threat of forced climate migration — international displacement driven by climate-induced natural disasters — should alter optimal carbon taxation. The motivation is twofold.
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 29 Oct 2025
The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks' non-core funding, and whether exchange rate flexibility (and macroprudential policy) can insulate …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Sep 2025
Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — especially Brazil — kept using them countercyclically …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 8 Jul 2025Published Sep 2026
Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies' foreign debt rose from 75% in 2010 to 81% in 2018. Such debt is dangerous …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Oct 2025
The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system's foreign-asset exposure plays in transmitting exchange rate shocks. The motivation is concrete: …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Nov 2025
This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as "Import Competition and …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 1 Sep 2025
How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given rising reliance on international borrowing under …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Dec 2024Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European deposit insurance …
PublishedClassicReview of International EconomicsOnline 23 Jan 2021Published May 2021
Economic policy uncertainty depresses growth in output, consumption and investment -- and about two-thirds of that effect comes from uncertainty originating in other countries rather than at home. …
PublishedClassicIMF Economic ReviewOnline 14 Feb 2020Published Mar 2020
US monetary tightening raises the probability of a banking crisis abroad, but only where the exposure to the United States is direct -- heavy bilateral trade or large dollar-denominated liabilities. …
PublishedClassicIMF Economic ReviewOnline 14 Feb 2020Published Mar 2020
Across nearly 1,000 listed financial firms in 21 countries, prolonged monetary easing raises leverage -- and for non-US firms, sustained easing in the United States raises leverage by more than easing …