Inflation

Julien Acalin · Laurence Ball

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Layer 1: Overview Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) …

Robert P Lieli (Central European University · Austria); Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu (Universidad Nacional de Tucuman · Argentina)

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call …

William A. Branch

Layer 1: Overview Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role …

Maria-Jose Carreras-Valle

Layer 1: Overview This paper documents and explains a previously unreported reversal in U.S. manufacturing inventory trends: after a 25-year secular decline, inventories-to-sales ratios have been …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Ari Kutai · Rafi Melnick

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, …

Hassan Afrouzi · Marina Halac · Kenneth Rogoff · Pierre Yared

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler

Layer 1: Overview Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without …

Damien Capelle · Yang Liu

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …

Matthew Klepacz

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: …

Lukasz A. Drozd · Marcin Kolasa · Jaromir B. Nosal

Layer 1: Overview This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial …

Russell Cooper · Ozgen Ozturk

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but …

Michael W. L. Elsby · Axel Gottfries · Pawel Krolikowski · Gary Solon

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual …

Drago Bergholt · Fabio Canova · Francesco Furlanetto · Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli · Pål Ulvedal

Layer 1: Overview The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a …

BEHZAD DIBA · OLIVIER LOISEL

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian …

Chadwick Curtis · Julio Garín · Robert Lester

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the …

Gene Ambrocio

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic …

Richard Dennis · Oleg Kirsanov

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents “present bias” — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, …

MELTEM CHADWICK · RENNAE CHERRY · JAQUESON K. GALIMBERTI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household …

Justine Guillochon

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households’ one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, …

Filippo Pallotti · Gonzalo Paz-Pardo · Jiri Slacalek · Oreste Tristani · Giovanni L. Violante

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the 2021-2023 inflation surge across households in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, …

Luca Fornaro · Federica Romei

In a multicountry model with nominal wage rigidities, two sectors (tradable with convex supply, nontradable with flat supply), and free capital mobility, the paper studies optimal monetary policy …

Luis G. Hernández-Román

This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve’s historical response, and …