The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely cited (Elmendorf-Mankiw, Krugman) as evidence that an …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 27 Jan 2026
Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) shocks and demand …
This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call "forecasting with feedback." …
Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role in New Keynesian …
This paper documents and explains a previously unreported reversal in U.S. manufacturing inventory trends: after a 25-year secular decline, inventories-to-sales ratios have been rising steadily since …
Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, stable, …
Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The standard quantitative macro models used to interpret …
This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the state of the …
Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without targeting inflation in …
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …
This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: policymakers worry that …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Apr 2026
This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial shocks (following …
This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but poorly understood …
This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual Nash renegotiation …
The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a methodological …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Sep 2025Published Sep 2026
Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian (NK) and monetarist models struggle with three broad …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 5 Jun 2025
The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the elasticity of substitution across product varieties. …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 7 Jun 2025
Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic policy, while a key transmission channel runs …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Jun 2025Published Sep 2026
Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents "present bias" — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, producing preference reversals inconsistent with standard …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Oct 2025
Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household Inflation Expectations survey decline to answer the …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Dec 2024Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households' one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, unemployment, economic …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Nov 2024
This paper measures the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the 2021-2023 inflation surge across households in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). …
Sorting about 3,700 annual observations from 44 countries over roughly two centuries into four debt-to-GDP buckets, the authors find little relationship between public debt and growth below 90 percent …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Jan 2026
In a multicountry model with nominal wage rigidities, two sectors (tradable with convex supply, nontradable with flat supply), and free capital mobility, the paper studies optimal monetary policy …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jun 2026Published Jun 2026
This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve's historical response, and evaluates …