Inflation Expectations

Mathieu Pedemonte · Hiroshi Toma · Esteban Verdugo

Consumers' inflation expectations are heterogeneous across birth cohorts and history-dependent: using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), the paper documents that each cohort's …

Dmitry Taubinsky · Luigi Butera · Matteo Saccarola · Chen Lian

Linking the monthly Danish Consumer Expectations Survey to the Danish administrative registry, this paper shows that households' inflation forecasts move strongly and negatively with their own recent …

Merike Kukk · Jan Toczynski · Christoph Basten

Households are exposed to different rates of inflation because they buy different things, and using anonymised quarterly bank-account records for 89,507 individuals at one of Estonia's leading …

Marvin Goodfriend

Using the 30-year bond rate as a real-time signal of the public's long-run inflation expectations, this narrative study of Fed federal funds rate policy from 1979 to 1992 argues that the central …

Thomas J. Sargent · Joseph Zeira

Israeli inflation jumped from 130% to 400% in October 1983 with no contemporaneous rise in the government deficit; Sargent and Zeira attribute the jump to the government's announced bailout of …

Max Diegel · Dieter Nautz

This 2021 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control paper by Max Diegel and Dieter Nautz asks whether U.S. long-term inflation expectations respond to monetary policy shocks in a way consistent with a …

Julio L. Ortiz

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a "misspecified expectations" …

Zhengyang Chen · Victor J. Valcarcel

This 2025 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control paper by Zhengyang Chen and Victor J. Valcarcel proposes a "rational expectations structural VAR" (RE-SVAR) — a way to embed rational expectations …

Sandra Daudignon · Oreste Tristani

This paper analyzes how monetary policy should respond to a long-run natural interest rate that can drift permanently — following a bounded random walk with upper bound 3 percent and lower bound 0 …

Christopher Gust · Edward Herbst · David López-Salido

Central banks must set policy under uncertainty about how private-sector expectations form, which changes how monetary policy transmits to output and inflation. This paper studies optimal …

Thomas J. Sargent

This paper studies the abrupt endings of four post-World War I European hyperinflations -- in Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Germany -- arguing that each stopped suddenly and at a comparatively low …

Marvin Goodfriend

Dividing 1987-2001 into six phases -- the post-crash inflation of 1987-90, the Gulf War disinflation, the celebrated 1994-95 preemptive tightening, the near-full-credibility long boom, the 1999-2000 …