Inflation-Dynamics

Maximilian Schröder

This paper introduces a Bayesian Gaussian mixture density regression framework that estimates the complete forecast distribution of inflation — not just selected quantiles — and decomposes the entire …

Apostolos Serletis · Libo Xu

Measuring the welfare cost of inflation requires specifying a money demand function, a definition of money, and an approach to consumer surplus; existing estimates vary widely because these choices …

Gabriel Ehrlich · John Haltiwanger · Ron Jarmin · David Johnson · Ed Olivares · Luke Pardue · Matthew D. Shapiro · Laura Yi Zhao

Layer 1: Overview This paper implements and evaluates methods for constructing quality-adjusted price indices from item-level retail scanner data at scale — across hundreds of product categories, …

Michael Weber · Bernardo Candia · Hassan Afrouzi · Tiziano Ropele · Rodrigo Lluberas · Serafin Frache · Brent Meyer · Saten Kumar · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Dimitris Georgarakos · Olivier Coibion · Geoff Kenny · Jorge Ponce

This paper uses randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in multiple countries to study whether the economic environment — specifically the level of inflation — affects how agents learn from …