Growth

Stephie Fried

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the distributional welfare impacts of higher temperatures from climate change across income groups in the United …

Lena Gerling · Arzu Kibris

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how individual-level exposure to internal armed conflict shapes social capital, specifically trust in institutions and trust in people. The question matters because …

Kjetil Storesletten · Bo Zhao · Fabrizio Zilibotti

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and …

Réka Juhász (University of British Columbia · CEPR · NBER) · Shogo Sakabe (AI Lab · CyberAgent · Japan) · David E. Weinstein (Columbia University · NBER · CEPR)

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why did the First Industrial Revolution (IR) spread to Meiji Japan—and to essentially no other non-Western country—during the first wave of …

Lucas Corrêa-Dias (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV) · Jordan J Norris (New York University Abu Dhabi) · Heitor S Pellegrina (University of Notre Dame)

Layer 1: Overview Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and …

Stephen Ayerst · Loren Brandt · Diego Restuccia

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how institutional distortions to factor markets affect not only the static allocation of inputs across farms but also the dynamic choices — crop selection and …

Philipp Hochmuth (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Per Krusell (Stockholm University; NBER; CEPR); Kurt Mitman (Stockholm University; CEPR; CEMFI; IZA)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the EU’s Fit-for-55 climate package will affect aggregate output and distribute its costs across the income distribution. The question matters …

Eugene Tan

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the illiquidity of entrepreneurial capital shapes investment dynamics and wealth inequality. The central question is whether entrepreneurship drives …

Ia Vardishvili

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. US cohorts of establishments born in recessions persistently employ fewer workers at entry and over their life cycle, yet are on average more …

Eric Jondeau · Gregory Levieuge · Jean-Guillaume Sahuc · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether public subsidies to green-technology producers, financed by a carbon tax, can materially reduce the macroeconomic cost of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by …

Ruixue Jia · Xiao Ma · Victoria Wenxin Xie

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what …

Tristany Armangüé-Jubert · Tancredi Rapone · Alessandro Ruggieri

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Firms are larger and grow faster over the life cycle in high-income countries, while labor markets in poorer countries are less competitive …

Alessandro Ferrari · Francisco Queirós

Layer 1: Overview Ferrari and Queirós ask why US recoveries have become progressively slower and argue that rising firm heterogeneity and market power — well-documented long-run trends — can …

Hiroshi Inokuma · Juan M. Sánchez

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how the well-documented slowdown in labor-force growth affects aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, a question that prior work on business dynamism had …

Hyejoon Im (Yeungnam University · South Korea) · John McLaren (University of Virginia · USA)

Layer 1: Overview Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called “race to the bottom” (RTB) hypothesis. The …

Nick Pretnar · Maria Feldman

Layer 1: Overview The paper investigates why the U.S. health-services sector has simultaneously experienced a tripling of relative prices since 1948 and a rise in the personal consumption expenditure …

Flavien Moreau · Ludovic Panon

Layer 1: Overview Moreau and Panon ask how much cartels cost the aggregate economy — in terms of both total factor productivity and welfare — and find the losses are considerably larger than the …

Giorgio Chiovelli (Universidad de Montevideo); Stelios Michalopoulos (Brown University · CEPR · NBER); Elias Papaioannou (London Business School · CEPR); Tanner Regan (George Washington University)

Layer 1: Overview Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and …

Holger Breinlich · Elsa Leromain · Dennis Novy · Thomas Sampson

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How does import liberalization affect a country’s export performance and welfare? Economic theory (Graham 1923, Ethier 1982, Krugman 1984) …

Benjamin Bridgman · Berthold Herrendorf

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks why the U.S. labor share has declined over the postwar period, and whether rising markups or capital deepening (automation, falling capital prices) is the primary …

Sebastian Ellingsen

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the location of economic activity adapts to changes in the location of trading opportunities, or whether historical patterns of trade permanently fix where …

Junichi Fujimoto · David Lagakos · Mitchell VanVuren

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether publicly funded (“free”) secondary schooling in developing countries raises GDP per capita. The question is policy-relevant because many …

Vincenzo De Lipsis (University of Southampton; Bartlett School · UCL); Matteo Deleidi (University of Bari Aldo Moro; IIPP · UCL); Mariana Mazzucato (IIPP · UCL); Paolo Agnolucci (Bartlett School · UCL; World Bank)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational …

Ariel Karlinsky · Moses Shayo

Layer 1: Overview Karlinsky and Shayo ask which governments manipulate public information, in which direction, and by how much — questions that are normally intractable because the ground truth is …

Barton H. Hamilton · Andrés Hincapié · Emma C. Kalish · Nicholas W. Papageorge

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why medical innovation can widen health disparities even when it unambiguously improves health for everyone who takes it. The authors argue that the standard …

Vahagn Jerbashian

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the elasticities of substitution between labor, information and communication technology (ICT) and intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital …

Davin Chor · Edwin L.-C. Lai

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of endogenous growth driven by cumulative innovation, and uses it to characterize optimal patent policy — both for patent …

Thomas Douenne (University of Amsterdam); Albert Jan Hummel (University of Groningen); Marcelo Pedroni (Inter-American Development Bank; University of Amsterdam)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether inequality and redistributive taxation should make climate policy more or less ambitious, and how optimal carbon taxes interact with optimal income taxes when …

Mohamad Adhami · Mark Bils · Charles I. Jones · Peter J. Klenow

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks how much economic progress looks different when one applies a total utilitarian welfare criterion — counting every person’s flow utility — rather than the …

Weizheng Lai · Lixin Colin Xu · Li Yang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How do civil wars affect long-term development, and through which institutional mechanisms? The paper studies the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864) in …

Ferdinando Monte · Charly Porcher · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Layer 1: Overview Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg ask why remote work surged abruptly and permanently after COVID-19 despite information-technology advances raising it only marginally between 1980 …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Debora Revoltella · Jan Svejnar · Christoph T. Weiss

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation …

Martin Shu

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether worker self-selection, rather than slow technological progress, can explain the low measured labor productivity growth in the U.S. service sector — a …

Sjak Smulders · Sophie Zhou

Layer 1: Overview This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change …

Loren Brandt · Ruochen Dai · Gueorgui Kambourov · Kjetil Storesletten · Xiaobo Zhang

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies entrepreneurship and new firm creation in China through the lens of serial entrepreneurs (SEs) — individuals who establish more than one firm — contrasting them …

Esther Ann Bøler · Andreas Moxnes · Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe

Layer 1: Overview Firms that invest heavily in intangible assets — patents, R&D, software — face a structural financing disadvantage: intangibles offer limited collateral value to banks, so …

Hans A. Holter · Serhiy Stepanchuk · Yicheng Wang

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the level and progressivity of personal income taxes shape entrepreneurial activity in the United States, contributing empirical evidence, theoretical …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, …

Xavier Cirera (World Bank) · Diego Comin (Dartmouth College) · Marcio Cruz (IFC · World Bank Group)

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How sophisticated are the technologies establishments actually use, and how close are they to the world frontier? Traditional measures (since …

Jean-Félix Brouillette

Layer 1: Overview Women accounted for only 3% of U.S. inventors in 1976 and still just 14% in 2023, a pace of convergence far slower than in law (3% to 49%) or medicine (6% to 46%) over the same …

Hideki Nakamura · Masakatsu Nakamura · Shota Moriwaki

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks a foundational question: can the economy-wide degree of automation be measured coherently from standard macroeconomic data, without relying on technology-specific …

Julián Costas-Fernández (University of Surrey · UK); José-Alberto Guerra (Universidad de los Andes · Colombia); Myra Mohnen (University of Ottawa and CEP LSE · Canada)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over …

Sarah Sander (University of Copenhagen)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the causal effects of universal daycare access on mothers’ labor force participation, full-time employment, hours worked, and earnings across 34 years …

Titan Alon · Damien Capelle · Kazushige Matsuda

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes that university R&D is determined endogenously by competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education, and asks why universities …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers …

Christoph Hambel · Frederick van der Ploeg

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Central bankers, regulators, and investors increasingly worry about climate “transition risks” — abrupt shifts in climate policy, green …

Masami Imai · Michiru Sawada

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends …