This paper by Olivier Blanchard and Roberto Perotti (QJE 2002; circulated from 1998) characterizes the dynamic effects of U.S. government spending and net tax shocks on output using a structural VAR …
PublishedEconometricaOnline 1 Jan 2024Published Sep 2024
The paper asks whether a government can run a deficit today — issuing "stimulus checks" — and allow debt to return to its initial level without any future tax hike or spending cut. In environments …
PublishedClassicCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public PolicyPublished Jun 1998
This paper argues that the composition of government spending across sectors, not just its aggregate size, matters for its macroeconomic effects, because reallocating capital across sectors is costly. …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 11 Feb 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper develops and implements a system of disaggregated economic accounts that breaks down national accounting positions into bilateral flows between small groups of consumers, producers, the …
Using a newly constructed quarterly US data set spanning 1889–2015 — built specifically to include the large wars and deep recessions that the post-WWII sample most of the literature relies on simply …
PublishedClassicAmerican Economic Journal: Economic PolicyPublished May 2012
This 2012 American Economic Journal: Economic Policy paper by Alan Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko estimates how government spending multipliers vary with the state of the business cycle, using a …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Sep 2011
This 2011 *Journal of Economic Literature* forum essay by Jonathan Parker argues that as of early 2009 economists had no good measure of how government spending affects output specifically in a …
This paper by Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn (AER 2013) estimates the dynamic effects of U.S. federal personal and corporate income tax changes using a new estimator that treats narratively identified …
This paper develops a narrative method for identifying postwar U.S. tax changes that are plausibly uncorrelated with other influences on output, in order to get around the omitted-variable bias that …