Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis — "periods of stability lead to periods of instability" — can arise endogenously from a tractable …
This paper asks what the optimal response of an exhaustible-resource producer is to sanctions in the form of a price cap, and how a sanctioning coalition should set the cap. The motivation is the …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
This paper asks why small firms hold large quantities of liquid assets — cash and cash equivalents that earn low or negative real returns — even when external credit is available. The conventional …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic models. The …
The paper asks why large gross financial flows exist between similarly rich countries (especially the U.S. and Europe), why financial integration raises rather than lowers asset price volatility, and …
This paper investigates why non-U.S. central banks accumulate large holdings of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, focusing on a previously under-emphasized motive: the currency mismatch of …
This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and their quality as …
Ferrari and Queirós ask why US recoveries have become progressively slower and argue that rising firm heterogeneity and market power — well-documented long-run trends — can substantially increase the …
This paper asks whether uncertainty in the interbank market — distinct from general macroeconomic uncertainty — raises the cost of bank credit to firms, and whether bank-specific characteristics …
This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies (EMEs) and (ii) the …
This paper asks how bank holdings of long-term government securities interact with interest-rate-driven monetary tightening to amplify macroeconomic downturns and generate banking crises. The …
The paper asks why market liquidity sometimes behaves in a stabilizing way (an illiquidity hike curbs liquidity demand and attracts liquidity supply) but on other occasions "evaporates when it is most …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of the U.S. housing finance system that jointly determines mortgage credit and mortgage-backed security (MBS) issuance, with the aim of …
Developing and emerging economies exhibit procyclical fiscal policy on both the spending and taxation sides: government expenditures expand in booms and contract in recessions, and tax rates fall in …
Firms that invest heavily in intangible assets — patents, R&D, software — face a structural financing disadvantage: intangibles offer limited collateral value to banks, so intangible-intensive firms …
Research question and motivation. A large literature argues that credit constraints are the dominant financial friction holding private businesses below their optimal scale, so that easing credit …
Research question and motivation. This paper asks how monetary policy transmits to corporate investment through bank credit, and specifically whether the relevant credit margin is the origination of …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Apr 2026
This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and welfare inequality in the …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
Wealth in the US is far more concentrated than income, even among the bottom 99%. In 2013, the next-49% (above the bottom 50%) earned 4.7 times the income of the bottom 50% but held 6.5 times the net …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 11 Jul 2025Published Aug 2026
Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by implication, financial markets and the transmission …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Jun 2025
Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic government bonds? This was a first-order policy …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Sep 2025Published Aug 2026
Research question and motivation: Asset fire sales were a defining feature of the 2007-08 crisis, and post-crisis reforms (Basel III liquidity requirements, Money Market Mutual Fund reforms) were …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 25 Jun 2025Published Aug 2026
This paper studies a transmission channel from sovereign fiscal weakness to banking performance that the literature has largely overlooked: government-provided deposit insurance, rather than banks' …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 29 Oct 2025
The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks' non-core funding, and whether exchange rate flexibility (and macroprudential policy) can insulate …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 11 Jun 2025
Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers and investors.
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Jun 2025Published Aug 2026
Noël and Sun build an information-based theory of capital structure designed to explain the diversity of observed firm financing behavior and the coexistence of distinct optimal financial contracts. …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Sep 2025Published Aug 2026
This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a "market-maker of last resort" (MMLR) can …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 10 Oct 2025Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation. Banks reluctant to recognize losses on troubled borrowers engage in "loan evergreening"—rolling over or extending credit to delay loss recognition.
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Nov 2025
There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of it, yet evidence on the macroeconomic effectiveness …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Sep 2025
Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — especially Brazil — kept using them countercyclically …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jan 2025
Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for policymakers.
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Jun 2025Published Aug 2026
When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that fundamentals are …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jun 2025
Research question and motivation: Central bankers, regulators, and investors increasingly worry about climate "transition risks" — abrupt shifts in climate policy, green technology breakthroughs, or …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Oct 2025
The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system's foreign-asset exposure plays in transmitting exchange rate shocks. The motivation is concrete: …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 1 Sep 2025
How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given rising reliance on international borrowing under …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 15 Nov 2024
Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing an "insurance …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 15 Nov 2024
Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends even a decade later? Imai and Sawada test one …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2024
This paper establishes basic facts about the external finance premium (EFP) faced by euro area firms borrowing from banks, and studies how monetary policy is transmitted to it. The EFP — the extra …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2024
Research question and motivation. Public procurement accounts for roughly one-third of government spending (12.6% of GDP and 30% of total government expenditures in OECD countries in 2019).
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Dec 2024Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European deposit insurance …
Cross-currency basis swap spreads are widely read as a post-crisis anomaly in which covered interest parity has broken down; this paper argues the opposite -- that a swap dealer who priced a …
Shifts in global risk appetite move not just the middle of the emerging-market capital-flow and return distributions but their left tails, and usually the left tail more. Estimating panel quantile …
PublishedClassicReview of Financial StudiesOnline 30 Aug 2011Published Nov 2011
Sorting currencies into six portfolios by their forward discounts, this paper shows that a single return-based factor -- the return on the highest minus the return on the lowest interest rate currency …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Aug 2026
Using the Livingston survey - the longest-running U.S. survey of professional economists, running twice a year since June 1952 - this paper shows that the expected excess stock return implied by these …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 31 Aug 2026
Survey forecasts depart from rational expectations in ways that look contradictory: consensus forecasts under-react to news, individual forecasts of macroeconomic variables tend to over-react, and …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished Mar 2005
On a panel of bilateral gross cross-border equity transactions among 14 countries from 1989 to 1996, a gravity specification with market capitalisations, distance and a measure of market …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Sep 2026
Two literatures predict opposite things about what happens to a country's pollution when it opens its equity market to foreign investors. Foreign institutional investors have been shown to push firms …