Expectations

Noah Williams

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis — “periods of stability lead to …

Simon Johnson · Lukasz Rachel · Catherine Wolfram

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks what the optimal response of an exhaustible-resource producer is to sanctions in the form of a price cap, and how a sanctioning coalition should set the cap. The …

Lukasz Rachel

Layer 1: Overview This paper builds a tractable, fully analytical version of the workhorse macro-epidemiology (“econ-epi”) model and uses it to characterize how susceptible individuals …

Andrew Y. Chen · Francisco Palomino

Layer 1: Overview Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic …

Lena Gerling · Arzu Kibris

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how individual-level exposure to internal armed conflict shapes social capital, specifically trust in institutions and trust in people. The question matters because …

Ruixue Jia · Xiao Ma · Victoria Wenxin Xie

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what …

Robert P Lieli (Central European University · Austria); Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu (Universidad Nacional de Tucuman · Argentina)

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call …

S. Borağan Aruoba · Thomas Drechsel

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate “shocks” — changes in interest rates that are not …

William A. Branch

Layer 1: Overview Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Ari Kutai · Rafi Melnick

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, …

Vincenzo De Lipsis (University of Southampton; Bartlett School · UCL); Matteo Deleidi (University of Bari Aldo Moro; IIPP · UCL); Mariana Mazzucato (IIPP · UCL); Paolo Agnolucci (Bartlett School · UCL; World Bank)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational …

Hassan Afrouzi · Marina Halac · Kenneth Rogoff · Pierre Yared

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler

Layer 1: Overview Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without …

Kee-Youn Kang · Zijian Wang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem …

Sushant Acharya · Jess Benhabib

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips …

Sjak Smulders · Sophie Zhou

Layer 1: Overview This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Kai Carstensen · Stefan Lautenbacher · Manuel Menkhoff · Martin Schneider

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but …

Jung Sakong

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Wealth in the US is far more concentrated than income, even among the bottom 99%. In 2013, the next-49% (above the bottom 50%) earned 4.7 times the …

Gene Ambrocio

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

Layer 1: Overview This paper revisits the “reversal puzzle” — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian …

Richard Dennis · Oleg Kirsanov

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents “present bias” — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, …

Michael Smolyansky · Gustavo Suarez

Layer 1: Overview When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that …

MELTEM CHADWICK · RENNAE CHERRY · JAQUESON K. GALIMBERTI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household …

TAKAO ASANO · YUSUKE OSAKI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the “precautionary saving motive.” The …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given …

Justine Guillochon

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households’ one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, …

Mohammed Abdellaoui · Philippe Colo · Brian Hill

Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …