Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis — "periods of stability lead to periods of instability" — can arise endogenously from a tractable …
This paper asks what the optimal response of an exhaustible-resource producer is to sanctions in the form of a price cap, and how a sanctioning coalition should set the cap. The motivation is the …
This paper builds a tractable, fully analytical version of the workhorse macro-epidemiology ("econ-epi") model and uses it to characterize how susceptible individuals behave during a deadly epidemic, …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic models. The …
PublishedJournal of Economic GrowthOnline 20 Apr 2026Published Sep 2026
This paper asks how individual-level exposure to internal armed conflict shapes social capital, specifically trust in institutions and trust in people. The question matters because trust is a core …
This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what this implies for …
This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call "forecasting with feedback." …
To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate "shocks" — changes in interest rates that are not systematic responses to economic conditions. The paper proposes a new …
Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role in New Keynesian …
Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, stable, …
This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational Expectations SVAR …
Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The standard quantitative macro models used to interpret …
Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without targeting inflation in …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jul 2026
Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem members) already …
Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips self-fulfilling …
This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change (DTC) — is hard to …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but it is far less clear what makes firms uncertain in …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
Wealth in the US is far more concentrated than income, even among the bottom 99%. In 2013, the next-49% (above the bottom 50%) earned 4.7 times the income of the bottom 50% but held 6.5 times the net …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 7 Jun 2025
Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic policy, while a key transmission channel runs …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Jun 2025
This paper revisits the "reversal puzzle" — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian models the effect of forward …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Jun 2025Published Sep 2026
Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents "present bias" — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, producing preference reversals inconsistent with standard …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Jun 2025Published Aug 2026
When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that fundamentals are …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Oct 2025
Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household Inflation Expectations survey decline to answer the …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Oct 2025
How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the "precautionary saving motive." The precautionary-saving literature has mostly studied one-dimensional …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 1 Sep 2025
How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given rising reliance on international borrowing under …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Dec 2024Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households' one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, unemployment, economic …
This paper studies, within a simple "ad hoc" macroeconomic model not derived from individuals' and firms' optimizing behavior but built to resemble the macroeconometric models of the time, how the …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 11 Sep 2026
The Behavioral New Keynesian model fixes the forward guidance puzzle by making agents myopic: "cognitive discounting", in Gabaix's (2014, 2016, 2020) formulation, shrinks expectations of distant …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Aug 2026
Using the Livingston survey - the longest-running U.S. survey of professional economists, running twice a year since June 1952 - this paper shows that the expected excess stock return implied by these …
PublishedClassicCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public PolicyPublished Jan 1976
This 1976 Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series paper by Robert Lucas argues that the standard "theory of economic policy" -- simulating a fixed, estimated econometric model under alternative …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 21 May 2026
Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …
At the end of 1989 Japanese investors held 1.9 percent of their equity abroad, US investors 6.2 percent and British investors 18 percent. Inverting a standard portfolio first-order condition, the …
This paper builds a dynamic, non-stochastic model of the "optimal" fiscal control of aggregate demand, deriving the time path of aggregate employment (or "utilization") that a policymaker who cares …
This 1961 Econometrica paper by John Muth proposes that economic expectations should be modeled as essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory itself -- so that, for a …
A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which a government that must roll over one-period debt can be forced into default purely because lenders expect it -- and a characterisation of …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 31 Aug 2026
Survey forecasts depart from rational expectations in ways that look contradictory: consensus forecasts under-react to news, individual forecasts of macroeconomic variables tend to over-react, and …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper develops a Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) search and matching model with internally rational (IR) agents who hold subjective beliefs about wages rather than perfect knowledge of the Nash …