Expectations-Learning

JULIO L. ORTIZ

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a “misspecified …

Andrew Caplin · Victoria Gregory · Eungik Lee · Søren Leth-Petersen · Johan Sæverud

The paper introduces a survey instrument — fielded in the Copenhagen Life Panel in January 2021 to about 10,900 employed Danes aged 20-65 — that measures how much earnings risk workers subjectively …