The Behavioral New Keynesian model fixes the forward guidance puzzle by making agents myopic: "cognitive discounting", in Gabaix's (2014, 2016, 2020) formulation, shrinks expectations of distant …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 18 Jun 2026
Linking the monthly Danish Consumer Expectations Survey to the Danish administrative registry, this paper shows that households' inflation forecasts move strongly and negatively with their own recent …
Embedding the Kydland-Prescott/Barro-Gordon time-inconsistency logic into a standard sticky-price, cash-credit-goods general equilibrium model, this paper shows the model generically has either two …
This 1972 Journal of Economic Theory paper by Robert Lucas constructs an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model — young and old traders exchanging in two physically separated, …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 25 Jul 2026
Using tailored surveys of more than 11,000 US and German households, retail investors, financial professionals, and academic experts, the paper documents the "mental models" people use when reasoning …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Oct 2025
Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a "misspecified expectations" …
This 1997 Econometric Theory paper by Michael Binder and M. Hashem Pesaran is a purely theoretical and computational contribution to solving multivariate linear rational expectations (RE) models -- it …
Lucas's 1995 Nobel Prize lecture asks why changes in the quantity of money seem, from David Hume onward, to be both neutral "units changes" in the long run and yet a source of real stimulus or …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 31 Aug 2026
Survey forecasts depart from rational expectations in ways that look contradictory: consensus forecasts under-react to news, individual forecasts of macroeconomic variables tend to over-react, and …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 2 Jul 2026
The paper introduces a survey instrument — fielded in the Copenhagen Life Panel in January 2021 to about 10,900 employed Danes aged 20-65 — that measures how much earnings risk workers subjectively …
PublishedClassicSveriges Riksbank Economic ReviewPublished Nov 2000
Summarizing Sargent's "The Conquest of American Inflation," this essay compares the popular rational-expectations "triumph of natural-rate theory" account of the rise and fall of U.S. inflation …
PublishedClassicSveriges Riksbank Economic ReviewPublished Nov 2000
Introducing Thomas Sargent's monograph "The Conquest of American Inflation" to a central-bank audience, this short essay contrasts the two standard accounts of the postwar rise and fall of inflation …
PublishedClassicThe Economic JournalOnline 14 Nov 2025Published May 2026
This essay argues that rational expectations about equilibrium prices -- which in heterogeneous-agent models means forecasting prices by forecasting the entire cross-sectional distribution, via an …