This paper proposes a text-based measure of monetary policy stance by modelling FOMC post-meeting statements as convex combinations of the staff-drafted dovish ("alternative A") and hawkish …
This 2020 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Marek Jarociński and Peter Karadi argues that conventional high-frequency-identified monetary policy surprises conflate two economically …
This 2026 Journal of Macroeconomics paper by Zhengyang Chen asks why high-frequency monetary policy surprises (MPS) -- changes in short-term interest-rate futures measured in narrow windows around …
PublishedClassicCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public PolicyPublished Dec 1993
This 1993 Carnegie-Rochester Conference paper by John Taylor introduces what became known as the "Taylor rule" — a simple guideline for setting the federal funds rate, r = p + 0.5y + 0.5(p - 2) + 2, …
PublishedClassicInternational Journal of Central BankingPublished May 2005
This 2005 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson tests whether asset-price responses to FOMC announcements can be adequately characterized by a …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ReviewPublished Jul 2001
Building a simple rational-expectations model of the federal funds market -- a lagged Trading Desk "reaction function" for the supply of Fed balances combined with a demand for balances that depends …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished May 1997
This 1997 Journal of Economic Perspectives essay by Ben Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin is a survey and policy assessment, not an empirical study: it draws on comparative experience across the eight …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 7 May 2026
This paper estimates the European Central Bank's loss function directly rather than inferring it from a reaction function, using the tone of the Governing Council's press conference introductory …
This paper uses randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in multiple countries to study whether the economic environment — specifically the level of inflation — affects how agents learn from …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Sep 2026
When a central bank announces a policy it will not implement for some time, households and firms respond straight away. This paper measures how much of a policy's effect arrives in that anticipation …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Jun 2004
Demiralp and Jorda argue that since the Fed began publicly announcing its Federal funds rate target in 1994, it has manipulated short-term rates through a Pavlovian "announcement effect" -- moral …
This 2005 American Economic Review paper by Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson asks whether long-term forward interest rates respond to daily macroeconomic and monetary-policy news, a …