Business-Cycles

Jorge Miranda-Pinto · Daniel Murphy · Kieran James Walsh · Eric R. Young

A common observation from account-level bank data is that low-income, low-liquidity households often use additional income to repay debt rather than consume, and that household-level consumption is …

Boyan Jovanovic · Peter L. Rousseau

AI can improve decisions, raise firm productivity, and accelerate human capital growth through its effect on signal quality in problem-solving tasks, but the consequences are heterogeneous across the …

Gorkem Bostanci · Guillermo Ordoñez

The paper studies how the two roles of stock markets — revealing information about firms’ fundamentals (which guides capital allocation) and providing liquidity — interact, arguing that when …

Kevin X.D. Huang · Qinglai Meng · Jianpo Xue

Layer 1: Overview This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget …

Jonathon Hazell · Bledi Taska

Layer 1 — Summary Hazell and Taska use wages posted on online job vacancies — matched to job titles and establishment identifiers from Burning Glass Technologies — to measure the wage for new hires at …

Alexandr Kopytov · Bineet Mishra · Kristoffer Nimark · Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

This paper studies how firms’ optimal technique choices under productivity uncertainty endogenously shape the structure of production networks and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. Each sector …

Fabio Ghironi · Daisoon Kim · Galip Kemal Ozhan

Sanctions are increasingly used as an instrument of economic statecraft, yet their macroeconomic consequences—especially the transitional dynamics and their effects on business cycles—are poorly …

Francois Le Grand · Xavier Ragot

The Chamley-Judd result (1986) states that the optimal long-run capital income tax rate is zero in representative-agent models. This paper shows that introducing heterogeneous agents — specifically, …

Silvia Miranda-Agrippino · Sinem Hacıoğlu-Hoke · Kristina Bluwstein

This paper constructs an instrumental variable for technology news shocks using patent applications, relaxing all identifying assumptions traditionally used in the news-shock literature. The IV is the …

Federico Mandelman · Mishita Mehra · Hewei Shen

High-skilled immigration policy frictions—particularly the H-1B visa lottery, fixed annual cap, and associated compliance costs—impose well-known burdens on firms, but their disproportionate impact on …

Mark Gertler · Christopher Huckfeldt · Antonella Trigari

This paper measures and models the role of temporary layoffs (TL) in cyclical unemployment dynamics, motivating the analysis by the extraordinary surge in temporary layoffs at the onset of the …

Iacopo Morchio · Christian Moser

Layer 1: Overview This paper uses linked employer-employee data from Brazil (RAIS, 2007–2014, covering 267 million worker-years, 56 million unique workers, and 607,000 employers) to document that the …

Diego Daruich

Layer 1: Overview This paper embeds early childhood development (ECD) investment into a general-equilibrium (GE), heterogeneous-agent, overlapping-generations model calibrated to U.S. data in order to …

Kyle Herkenhoff · Gueorgui Kambourov · Iourii Manovskii · Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas Sargent

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies the sources of long-term unemployment (LTU, defined as failing to find a job within six months) using administrative data on the universe of unemployment spells in …

Nils H. Lehr · Pascual Restrepo

Leading AI firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic publicly claim dual mandates of profit and social welfare, raising the question of whether—and how—a social mandate should change their pricing and …

Veasna Kheng · Lei Pan · Xiaodong Fan

This paper builds and estimates a small open economy real-business-cycle (SOE-RBC) model for Cambodia augmented with two non-standard external-sector shocks — net unilateral transfers (remittances and …

Ding Dong · Zheng Liu · Pengfei Wang

Firm-level evidence shows that recessions are characterized not just by aggregate downturns but by a sharp rise in turbulence—a reshuffling of firms’ productivity rankings in which …

Nicholas Kozeniauskas

The entrepreneurship rate in the United States—defined as the share of the labor force who own and actively manage a business with at least ten employees—declined by 26% between 1987 and 2015, a …