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[What Ends Recessions?]: CommentJohn H. Cochrane
Commenting on Christina and David Romer's claim that active Federal Reserve policy ended postwar recessions, Cochrane argues that their historical narrative cannot distinguish a Fed that reacts to …
A Mathematical Theory of SavingF. P. Ramsey
Frank Ramsey's 1928 paper asks how much of its income a nation ought to save, and derives a rule -- that the rate of saving times the marginal utility of consumption should equal the gap between …
Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?Robert J. Barro
This 1974 Journal of Political Economy paper by Robert Barro asks whether an increase in government bonds raises households' perceived net wealth, and argues that within an overlapping-generations …
Bank Opacity and Safe Asset MoneynessSang Rae Kim
This paper studies when a bank is more effective as a supplier of privately produced money-like safe assets (repo, commercial paper), finding that a bank produces safer, more liquid assets when (1) …
BridgesAnna Tompsett
This paper measures the causal effects of land transport infrastructure on economic activity, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in bridge construction over the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the …
Costly Multidimensional ScreeningFrank Yang
This paper studies when a principal can improve upon simple one-dimensional mechanisms by also deploying costly nonprice screening instruments — actions that are socially wasteful yet potentially …
Currency UnionsA. Alesina · R. J. Barro
This 2002 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper by Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro builds a formal model of which countries should give up their own currency and adopt another country's, combining a …
DSGE pileupsStephen D. Morris
This 2017 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control paper by Stephen D. Morris is a methodological contribution explaining why maximum-likelihood or Bayesian estimates of DSGE structural parameters often …
Endogenous Technological ChangePaul M. Romer
This 1990 Journal of Political Economy paper by Paul Romer models long-run growth as driven by technological change that arises from intentional research investment by profit-maximizing firms, …
Exchange Rate PredictabilityBarbara Rossi
Asked whether anything forecasts exchange rates, this survey's answer is "it depends" -- on the predictor, the horizon, the sample, the model and the evaluation test. Predictability shows up most …
Exchange Rates and PricesRudiger Dornbusch
Motivated by the large, persistent real appreciation of the dollar between 1980 and 1985, this paper takes the nominal exchange rate movement as given (it does not explain it) and asks, in a …
Failing BanksSergio Correia · Stephan Luck · Emil Verner
Correia, Luck, and Verner ask a foundational question in banking: why do banks fail? Specifically, they seek to adjudicate between two theoretical views — the solvency view (failures caused by …
Growth and IdeasCharles I. Jones
This Handbook of Economic Growth survey chapter lays out why treating ideas -- nonrivalrous instructions or recipes, as distinct from the rivalrous "objects" that embody them -- as a distinct input to …
Inflation and WelfareRobert E. Lucas, Jr.
Surveying and extending the Bailey-Friedman tradition of estimating the welfare cost of inflation, Lucas fits U.S. money-demand data for 1900-1994 and estimates that reducing annual inflation from 10 …
Local ProjectionsÒscar Jordà · Alan M. Taylor
This 2025 Journal of Economic Literature survey takes stock of local projections (LP) as a general framework for estimating impulse responses, arguing that LPs "help bridge the divide between current …
Measuring Monetary PolicyBen S. Bernanke · Ilian Mihov
Bernanke and Mihov (1998, QJE) address a measurement problem in the monetary-VAR literature: the era's dominant methods for extracting a "monetary policy shock" -- Cholesky orderings built around the …
Micro and Macro UncertaintyAndreas Schaab
Using a new global solution method for a HANK model with counter-cyclical unemployment risk and a zero lower bound, this job-market paper shows that the dominant transmission channel of macroeconomic …
Money as stockJohn H. Cochrane
Cochrane argues that the fiscal theory of the price level rests on a valuation equation, not a budget constraint -- nominal government debt is priced like a claim on future government surpluses, …
Money Is MemoryNarayana R. Kocherlakota
This 1998 *Journal of Economic Theory* paper by Narayana Kocherlakota asks what money technologically does by comparing it against an alternative record-keeping technology the paper calls memory: …
Mussa Puzzle ReduxOleg Itskhoki · Dmitry Mukhin
The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the empirical observation of a sharp, simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange …
Response to a SkepticEdward C. Prescott
This 1986 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review piece is Edward Prescott's direct reply, in the same issue, to Lawrence Summers's "Some Skeptical Observations on Real Business Cycle …
Robust Real Rate RulesTom D. Holden
The paper proposes and analyzes real rate rules — monetary policy rules of the form i_t = r_t + φπ_t (φ > 1), where r_t is the current-period real interest rate observed via TIPS yields or inflation …
ShocksJohn H. Cochrane
Surveying the evidence for monetary, technology, oil-price, and credit shocks as drivers of postwar U.S. business cycles, Cochrane finds that none of these popular observable candidates robustly …
Some Fiscal CalculusHarald Uhlig
In a calibrated neoclassical growth model with distortionary labor and capital taxes, an ARRA-style government spending increase produces short-run net-present-value fiscal multipliers above one, but …
Sovereign DebtMark Aguiar · Manuel Amador
A Handbook survey that organises the economics of sovereign debt around a single benchmark limited-commitment model, then shows how each strand of the literature -- debt overhang, equilibrium default, …
Talent Hoarding in OrganizationsIngrid Haegele
This paper provides the first empirical evidence of talent hoarding in organizations — the practice whereby managers deliberately suppress workers' internal mobility to retain productive team members, …
The Ends of Four Big InflationsThomas J. Sargent
This paper studies the abrupt endings of four post-World War I European hyperinflations -- in Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Germany -- arguing that each stopped suddenly and at a comparatively low …
The Purchasing Power Parity PuzzleKenneth Rogoff
This 1996 Journal of Economic Literature survey by Kenneth Rogoff states the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle as a reconciliation problem: the empirical literature finds that real exchange rates …
The Role of Monetary PolicyMilton Friedman
Delivered as Friedman's presidential address to the American Economic Association in December 1967, this paper argues that two decades of professional opinion had swung too far toward assigning …
The Triumph of Monetarism?J. Bradford De Long
Tracing the 20th-century history of "monetarism" through four successive subspecies, De Long argues that although monetarism's most politically influential and empirically fragile form collapsed in …
The User Cost of MoneyWilliam A. Barnett
This 1978 Economics Letters paper by William A. Barnett asks what the correct price of holding a monetary asset actually is -- the "user cost" or equivalent rental price of the liquidity services a …
Trade in Risky AssetsLars E. O. Svensson
This 1988 American Economic Review paper by Lars Svensson extends the law of comparative advantage from trade in goods to trade in any arbitrarily specified set of risky assets, complete or …
Vector AutoregressionsJames H. Stock · Mark W. Watson
This 2001 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by James Stock and Mark Watson reviews how vector autoregressions (VARs) have performed at the four core tasks of applied macroeconometrics — data …