Published

Fan Liang

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why small firms hold large quantities of liquid assets — cash and cash equivalents that earn low or negative real returns — even when external credit is available. …

Lukasz Rachel

Layer 1: Overview This paper builds a tractable, fully analytical version of the workhorse macro-epidemiology (“econ-epi”) model and uses it to characterize how susceptible individuals …

Mitali Das · Gita Gopinath · Helene Hall · Taehoon Kim · Jeremy C. Stein

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why non-U.S. central banks accumulate large holdings of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, focusing on a previously under-emphasized motive: the …

Taeyoung Doh · Dongho Song · Shu-Kuei Yang

This paper proposes a text-based measure of monetary policy stance by modelling FOMC post-meeting statements as convex combinations of the staff-drafted dovish (“alternative A”) and …

Julien Acalin · Laurence Ball

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely …

Ruixue Jia · Xiao Ma · Victoria Wenxin Xie

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what …

Tristany Armangüé-Jubert · Tancredi Rapone · Alessandro Ruggieri

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Firms are larger and grow faster over the life cycle in high-income countries, while labor markets in poorer countries are less competitive …

Holger Breinlich · Elsa Leromain · Dennis Novy · Thomas Sampson

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How does import liberalization affect a country’s export performance and welfare? Economic theory (Graham 1923, Ethier 1982, Krugman 1984) …

Nezih Guner · Christopher Rauh · Gustavo Ventura

Layer 1: Overview Guner, Rauh, and Ventura document the scope, generosity, distributional impact, and time evolution of means-tested transfers to working-age US households, and provide parametric …

Barton H. Hamilton · Andrés Hincapié · Emma C. Kalish · Nicholas W. Papageorge

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why medical innovation can widen health disparities even when it unambiguously improves health for everyone who takes it. The authors argue that the standard …

Salomon Garcia-Villegas

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of the U.S. housing finance system that jointly determines mortgage credit and mortgage-backed security (MBS) issuance, …

Lukasz A. Drozd · Marcin Kolasa · Jaromir B. Nosal

Layer 1: Overview This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Debora Revoltella · Jan Svejnar · Christoph T. Weiss

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation …

Sjak Smulders · Sophie Zhou

Layer 1: Overview This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change …

Donggyu Lee

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and …

Titan Alon · Damien Capelle · Kazushige Matsuda

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes that university R&D is determined endogenously by competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education, and asks why universities …

Ana Costa-Ramón · Michaela Slotwinski · Ursina Schaede · Anne Ardila Brenøe

This paper investigates whether information constraints — rather than fully forward-looking choices — contribute to mothers’ reduced labor supply after childbirth, a key driver of gender …

Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Pascal Kieren · Stefan Trautmann

Standard survey-based measurement of inflation expectations relies on density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified inflation bins; this method has been found to induce …

Atif Mian · Ludwig Straub · Amir Sufi

This paper develops a tractable continuous-time model to study the fiscal sustainability of government deficits and the joint dynamics of public debt, with two main ingredients: an endogenous interest …

Jorge Miranda-Pinto · Daniel Murphy · Kieran James Walsh · Eric R. Young

A common observation from account-level bank data is that low-income, low-liquidity households often use additional income to repay debt rather than consume, and that household-level consumption is …

Marco Bassetto · David S Miller

Overview Research Question. Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to …

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Walker Ray · Dimitri Vayanos

Layer 1 — Core Argument The paper develops a two-country preferred-habitat model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles — currency traders with price-elastic …

Joel P. Flynn · George Nikolakoudis · Karthik A. Sastry

Research Question Modern macroeconomic models of aggregate supply universally restrict firms to price-setting — committing to a price and supplying whatever quantity the market demands. Flynn, …

Daria Finocchiaro · Philippe Weil

Research Question. Finocchiaro and Weil ask whether financial development necessarily promotes long-run economic growth, or whether congestion externalities in R&D markets can offset — and even …

Gaurav Khanna · Emir Murathanoglu · Caroline Theoharides · Dean Yang

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how persistent increases in international migrant income prospects affect long-run economic development in migrant-origin areas. The central …

Jonas Hjort · Xuan Li · Heather Sarsons

Layer 1 — Summary Many multinationals do not fully adjust wages to the local context of their foreign establishments; instead, they partially link the wages of foreign workers in a given position to …

Jess Benhabib · Feng Dong · Pengfei Wang · Zhenyang Xu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Why do corporate defaults cluster in recurring episodes rather than occurring smoothly? The paper asks whether observable fundamental factors — firm …

Marco Errico · Danial Lashkari

Errico and Lashkari address two intertwined problems in the measurement of aggregate price indices: how to account for quality change and variety entry/exit when the demand system is not CES, and how …

Boyan Jovanovic · Peter L. Rousseau

AI can improve decisions, raise firm productivity, and accelerate human capital growth through its effect on signal quality in problem-solving tasks, but the consequences are heterogeneous across the …

Christian Bayer · Ralph Luetticke · M. Weiss · Yannik Winkelmann

This paper introduces the Distributional Endogenous Gridpoint Method (DEGM), a novel numerical technique for solving the distributional dynamics that arise in heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models. …

Eric Chyn · Diego Daruich

Overview Research question. How should governments design neighborhood-based policies to improve long-run outcomes for children, once one accounts for general equilibrium (GE) forces—endogenous rents, …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler · Simone Lenzu · Joris Tielens

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether …

Felipe Del Canto · John Grigsby · Eric Qian · Conor Walsh

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks whether inflationary shocks are regressive, and demonstrates that the answer depends critically on the source of the shock. A single aggregate …

Ping Wang · Tsz-Nga Wong

Wang and Wong develop a continuous-time labor-search model to assess the dynamic effects of generative AI (GenAI) on labor productivity and unemployment. The paper is motivated by conflicting …

Stephan Lauermann · Asher Wolinsky

This paper develops an auction model that jointly incorporates three frictions pervading informal price-formation processes: (1) costly recruitment by the seller, (2) costly participation by bidders, …

Vitaly M. Bord · Agnes Kovacs · Patrick Moran

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should regulators restrict banks from proactively raising credit card limits using machine-learning algorithms, and if so, how? The paper asks: to what extent are …

Daron Acemoglu · Pascual Restrepo

Acemoglu and Restrepo examine the effects of automation in economies where labor market distortions cause some workers to earn rents—wages above their opportunity cost or outside option. The central …

Sydnee Caldwell · Ingrid Haegele · Jörg Heining

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How prevalent is individual wage bargaining in the labor market, what determines firms’ bargaining strategies, how do bargaining encounters unfold for …

Bruno Pellegrino · Enrico Spolaore · Romain Wacziarg

Overview Research Question. Why do observed international investment positions and cross-country differences in rates of return to capital fail to conform to a frictionless capital-market benchmark? …

Almut Balleer · Georg Duernecker · Susanne Forstner · Johannes Goensch

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks two questions: (1) How do workers’ biased expectations about job finding and job separation shape the labor market equilibrium and wages? (2) …

Elliot Anenberg · Tess Scharlemann · Eileen van Straelen

Overview Research Question. Does monetary policy stimulate household borrowing and consumption by enabling cash-out mortgage refinancing (“the cash-out refinance channel”), or does it …

Minsu Chang · Hanbaek Lee

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment, specifically by incorporating firm-level investment decisions — a dimension absent from …

George-Marios Angeletos · Chen Lian · Christian K. Wolf

The paper asks whether a government can run a deficit today — issuing “stimulus checks” — and allow debt to return to its initial level without any future tax hike or spending cut. In …

Farid Farrokhi · Ahmad Lashkaripour

Overview Farrokhi and Lashkaripour (2025) study the interaction between trade policy and climate change. The central research question is whether and how countries can use trade policy — specifically …

Robert M. Anderson · Haosui Duanmu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Anderson and Duanmu (2025) ask how general equilibrium (GE) interactions — factor reallocation across sectors, capital misallocation under climate uncertainty, and …

Francesco Lippi · Elia Moracci

Lippi and Moracci (2026) ask how euro area households choose between cash and card payments, and whether existing theoretical models can explain observed behavior. They draw on ECB payment diary …

Manuel Amador · Christopher Phelan

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? …

Raj Chetty · Will Dobbie · Benjamin Goldman · Sonya R Porter · Crystal S Yang

This paper documents sharp divergent trends in intergenerational economic mobility by race and class in the United States across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, and investigates the causal mechanisms …

Giorgio Chiovelli · Stelios Michalopoulos · Elias Papaioannou · Sandra Sequeira

This paper examines the impact of conflict-driven forced displacement on human capital accumulation using the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992) as the empirical setting. During this war, over four …

Francesco Giovanardi · Matthias Kaldorf

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks two related questions about the intersection of climate policy and bank capital regulation. First, can differentiated bank capital requirements — …

Ngoc-Sang Pham · Alexis Akira Toda

Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles can resolve the capital over-accumulation problem when the economy is …

J. Carter Braxton

This comment, written by J. Carter Braxton (University of Wisconsin), discusses the paper “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong (2025), which develops …

Miao Ben Zhang

This paper is a published comment by Miao Ben Zhang (USC Marshall School of Business) on Mihet, Rishabh, and Gomes (2025), “Is It AI or Data That Drives Market Power?” Zhang identifies …

Christoph Grosse-Steffen · Laura Pagenhardt · Malte Rieth

A central debate in fiscal policy is whether fiscal rules—numerical constraints on budget deficits or debt levels—impair a government’s ability to respond to adverse economic shocks, creating a …

Ippei Fujiwara · Kiminori Matsuyama

Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …

Fernando Alvarez · Katarína Borovičková · Robert Shimer

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks two related questions. First, can one develop a robust, distribution-free estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of …

Jonathan Payne · Bálint Szőke · George Hall · Thomas J Sargent

Overview This paper constructs a new dataset of US federal bond prices and uses it to estimate the full term structure of yields on gold-denominated US federal debt from 1791 to 1933 — the entire gold …

Andrea Chiavari

This paper asks how rising returns to scale in production contributed to three concurrent U.S. secular trends since 1980: declining business dynamism, rising markups, and growing firm expenditures on …

Taha Choukhmane

Overview Research question. Does automatic enrollment (auto-enrollment) in retirement savings plans increase lifetime wealth accumulation and welfare? The prior literature established large short-run …

Andreas Haller · Stefan Staubli · Josef Zweimüller

This paper develops a sufficient statistics framework for the welfare analysis of disability insurance (DI) policy reforms and applies it to two reform episodes in Austria. The framework derives …

Panle Jia Barwick · Siyu Chen · Chao Fu · Teng Li

This paper estimates the causal effects of mobile app usage on college students’ academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes, while separately identifying behavioral …

Asger L. Andersen · Kilian Huber · Niels Johannesen · Ludwig Straub · Emil Toft Vestergaard

This paper develops and implements a system of disaggregated economic accounts that breaks down national accounting positions into bilateral flows between small groups of consumers, producers, the …

Andreas Hornstein · Marios Karabarbounis · André Kurmann · Etienne Lalé · Lien Ta

This paper isolates the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on employment recovery, separating them from the simultaneously operating stimulative (demand) effects …

Anastasiia Antonova · Gernot J. Müller

This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …

Amory Gethin

Layer 1 — Core Argument This paper constructs the first estimates of the aggregate and distributional effects of worldwide educational expansion since 1980 by developing a “distributional growth …

Raj Chetty · David J Deming · John N Friedman

This paper studies why children from high-income families are more likely to attend Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, Chicago — 12 colleges total) and whether attending these …

Daniel L. Greenwald · Adam Guren

Overview Research Question. To what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the 2000s housing boom and bust? The existing literature offers sharply divergent answers — ranging from …

Supreet Kaur · Sendhil Mullainathan · Suanna Oh · Frank Schilbach

Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive? Research Question The paper tests whether financial concerns distract workers sufficiently to meaningfully reduce their productivity, and whether …

Michael McLeay · Silvana Tenreyro

Layer 1 — Summary An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are …

Jonathon Hazell · Bledi Taska

Layer 1 — Summary Hazell and Taska use wages posted on online job vacancies — matched to job titles and establishment identifiers from Burning Glass Technologies — to measure the wage for new hires at …

Giacomo Lanzani

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that …

Veronica Backer-Peral · Jonathon Hazell · Atif Mian

Each month a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more, creating thousands of natural experiments in which the same property’s rent and capital value are revealed …

John Sturm Becko · André Sztutman

Overview Research Question. Can income tax schedules be justified as utilitarian-optimal without adopting extreme normative assumptions about how household welfare should be measured? The paper …

Alexandr Kopytov · Bineet Mishra · Kristoffer Nimark · Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

This paper studies how firms’ optimal technique choices under productivity uncertainty endogenously shape the structure of production networks and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. Each sector …

Ali Almelhem · Murat Iyigun · Austin Kennedy · Jared Rubin

This paper tests Joel Mokyr’s claim that Britain’s industrialization was preceded and enabled by a cultural shift — specifically, that Enlightenment ideals produced a …

Diego Gentile Passaro · Fuhito Kojima · Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies the labor market effects of “Equal Pay for Similar Work” (EPSW) policies — laws that require firms to pay equal wages to workers of …

Zhengyang Jiang · Hanno Lustig · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh · Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies three centuries of U.K. fiscal history to understand the fiscal implications of safe asset supplier status — what the authors call “exorbitant …

Ming Zeng · Guihai Zhao

Overview Research Question. What drives the joint historical dynamics of the term structure of equity yields and nominal bond yields — and can a single unified equilibrium model explain the …

Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks whether an explicit, global, closed-form solution exists for the consumption function in the standard income fluctuation problem with a borrowing …

Sergio Correia · Stephan Luck · Emil Verner

Correia, Luck, and Verner ask a foundational question in banking: why do banks fail? Specifically, they seek to adjudicate between two theoretical views — the solvency view (failures caused by …

Renato Faccini · Seungcheol Lee · Ralph Luetticke · Morten O. Ravn · Tobias Renkin

Overview Research Question. How do consumer credit spreads — the gap between household borrowing rates and deposit rates — affect aggregate business cycle dynamics and the distribution of consumption …

Kirstin Hubrich · Yves S. Schüler · Daniel Waggoner

This paper investigates the role of leverage of financial institutions in amplifying the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, with particular attention to whether that amplification …

Naoki Aizawa · Corina Mommaerts · Stephanie Rennane

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies (1) how firm accommodation decisions respond to financial incentives in the context of workplace disability under workers’ compensation, …

Richard Audoly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question How do aggregate economic fluctuations reallocate workers across the firm productivity distribution over the business cycle? In particular, to what extent do …

Galina Vereshchagina

This paper quantifies how idiosyncratic firm-level risk affects aggregate output, TFP, and firm life-cycle growth in an environment where firm productivity evolves endogenously through risky …

Emmanuel Dhyne · Ayumu Ken Kikkawa · Toshiaki Komatsu · Magne Mogstad · Felix Tintelnot

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks three related questions in the context of Belgium, a small open economy: (1) What do firms’ responses to demand shocks reveal about their …

Alessandro Moro · Valerio Nispi Landi

Moro and Nispi Landi develop FraNK, a multi-country New Keynesian model designed to study geoeconomic fragmentation — defined, following Aiyar et al. (2023), as a policy-driven reversal of economic …

Timothy Besley · Christopher Dann · Sacha Dray

This paper investigates whether individuals who have experienced stronger GDP growth over their lifetimes are more likely to trust their national government. The authors — Besley, Dann, and Dray — …

Elena Capatina · Michael Keane

Capatina and Keane build and calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings for U.S. men that incorporates health shocks, endogenous human capital accumulation via learning-by-doing, …

Daniel Barth · R. Jay Kahn

The U.S. Treasury market is the deepest and most liquid fixed-income market in the world, yet in March 2020 it experienced unprecedented dysfunction—widening bid-ask spreads, skyrocketing repo rates, …

Karam Jo · Seula Kim

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Jo and Kim ask two related questions: (1) How do firms use different types of innovation when learning others’ technology takes time? (2) How does this …

Andrii Parkhomenko

This paper asks why job polarization and income inequality are higher in large U.S. cities, and proposes a novel housing-market mechanism that operates independently of — but interacts with — the …

Ben Weidmann · Joseph Vecci · Farah Said · Sonia Bhalotra · Achyuta Adhvaryu · Anant Nyshadham · Jorge Tamayo · David Deming

This paper develops a novel experimental method to identify the causal contribution of managers to team performance, and uses it to evaluate which characteristics predict managerial effectiveness and …

Elliott Ash · Daniel L Chen · Suresh Naidu

This paper quantifies the effect of the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges — an intensive two-week economics training program run by the Law and Economics Center from 1976 to 1998 — on the …

Hengjie Ai · Ravi Bansal · Hongye Guo · Amir Yaron

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a revealed-preference theory that uses asset-market data to identify whether investors have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty (PER), a property of …

Sergio Villalvazo

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher’s (1933) debt-deflation mechanism as it operates during Sudden Stop crises — episodes …

Kai Gehring · Paul Schaudt

This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence that Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) — a remote-sensing-triggered, automated payout scheme for pastoralists — substantially reduces …

Fabio Ghironi · Daisoon Kim · Galip Kemal Ozhan

Sanctions are increasingly used as an instrument of economic statecraft, yet their macroeconomic consequences—especially the transitional dynamics and their effects on business cycles—are poorly …

Mathilde Muñoz

Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether differences in labor market regulations — specifically payroll taxes and minimum wages — shape countries’ comparative advantage in the …

Christoph Albert · Albrecht Glitz · Joan Llull

Labor Market Competition and the Assimilation of Immigrants Research Question Why have immigrant-native wage gaps widened substantially across arrival cohorts in the United States since the 1960s, and …

Chun-Che Chi

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt — specifically, the degree to which a borrowing country’s external debt is concentrated among a …

Abu Siddique · Michael Vlassopoulos · Yves Zenou

This paper investigates whether virtual contact — exposure to an outgroup through a documentary film — can promote interethnic harmony, and whether targeting network-central individuals amplifies …

Alexander W. Cappelen · Shachar Kariv · Erik Ø. Sørensen · Bertil Tungodden · William R. Zame

This paper asks whether an individual’s attitude toward risk in the personal domain (choices affecting only oneself) can be linked to that same individual’s attitude toward risk in the …

Amy Finkelstein · Matthew J Notowidigdo · Frank Schilbach · Jonathan Zhang

Overview Research Question. Does the Great Recession reduce or increase mortality, and what are the welfare implications of incorporating recession-induced mortality changes into standard …

Jack Mountjoy

This paper asks whether enrolling in an American public university generates positive net returns for marginal students — those who barely qualify for admission — and whether those returns justify …

Jacob D Orchard · Valerie A Ramey · Johannes F Wieland

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. Do the high marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) estimated in the leading household studies of the 2008 U.S. tax rebates—particularly Parker et al. (2013), …

David Berger · Kyle Herkenhoff · Simon Mongey

Overview Research question. Can minimum wages improve welfare through efficiency — by correcting monopsony-driven under-employment — and, if so, by how much? What is the optimal minimum wage, and how …

Luca Fornaro · Federica Romei

In a multicountry model with nominal wage rigidities, two sectors (tradable with convex supply, nontradable with flat supply), and free capital mobility, the paper studies optimal monetary policy …

Cristina Arellano · Yan Bai · Gabriel Mihalache

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a New Keynesian small open economy model with endogenous sovereign default — the NK-Default framework — and uses it to study the interplay between monetary policy …

Zhesheng Qiu · Yicheng Wang · Le Xu · Francesco Zanetti

This paper studies the design of monetary policy in a multi-sector small open economy with domestic input-output linkages and cross-border production networks, under nominal price rigidities in …

Luis G. Hernández-Román

This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve’s historical response, and …

Camelia Minoiu · Rebecca Zarutskie · Andrei Zlate

Overview Research Question. Minoiu, Zarutskie, and Zlate ask whether participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency facility launched in mid-2020 to channel credit …

Oleg Itskhoki · Dmitry Mukhin

The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the empirical observation of a sharp, simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange …

Paolo Gelain · Marco Lorusso

This paper estimates the effect of oil price fluctuations on US banking variables using a Bayesian SVAR with sign restrictions following Baumeister and Hamilton (2019). Oil market shocks that lead to …

Apostolos Serletis · Libo Xu

Measuring the welfare cost of inflation requires specifying a money demand function, a definition of money, and an approach to consumer surplus; existing estimates vary widely because these choices …

Anmol Bhandari · Tobey Kass · Thomas J. May · Ellen R. McGrattan · Evan Schulz

This paper uses a novel longitudinal administrative dataset drawn from U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Social Security Administration (SSA) records to characterize income dynamics and the …

Francois Le Grand · Xavier Ragot

The Chamley-Judd result (1986) states that the optimal long-run capital income tax rate is zero in representative-agent models. This paper shows that introducing heterogeneous agents — specifically, …

Christopher Gust · Edward Herbst · David López-Salido

Central banks must set policy under uncertainty about how private-sector expectations form, which changes how monetary policy transmits to output and inflation. This paper studies optimal …

Gene M Grossman · Elhanan Helpman · Alejandro Sabal

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Grossman, Helpman, and Sabal ask what market failures arise in vertical supply chains with multiple production tiers, limited (non-anonymous) supply networks, …

Jan Eeckhout · Chunyang Fu · Wenjian Li · Xi Weng

Overview This paper asks whether and how optimal income taxation should change when firms have market power. The question is motivated by the documented rise in economy-wide markups since 1980, which …

Chenyu Shan · Dragon Yongjun Tang · Wenya Wang

Third-party loan guarantees—in which a fee-charging guarantor formally guarantees a bank loan and conducts its own due diligence on the borrower—are present in approximately 10% of Chinese bank loans …

Matthew Baron · Luc Laeven · Julien Pénasse · Yevhenii Usenko

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates two interrelated questions about historical banking crises: (1) whether bank losses during banking crises are primarily temporary or …

Cecile Gaubert · Patrick Kline · Damian Vergara · Danny Yagan

Place-Based Redistribution: Overview Research Question Should national governments redistribute income to residents of poor areas through place-based transfers, or should redistribution rely solely on …

Stefano DellaVigna · Woojin Kim

DellaVigna and Kim study the innovation and diffusion of policies across U.S. states using a dataset of over 700 state laws spanning seven decades. The central question is what predicts whether a …

Emanuele Colonnelli · Valdemar Pinho Neto · Edoardo Teso

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Do individual political views shape firm behavior and labor market outcomes in the private sector? Specifically, do business owners sort copartisan workers into …

Peter Maxted · David Laibson · Benjamin Moll

Layer 1 — Summary Maxted, Laibson, and Moll study fiscal and monetary policy in a partial-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model in which homeowners have present-biased time preferences (Instantaneous …

Scott T. Nelson

The 2009 Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act barred credit card lenders from discretionarily raising borrowers’ interest rates in response to new information. …

Kenan Huremović · Gabriel Jiménez · Enrique Moral-Benito · José-Luis Peydró · Fernando Vega-Redondo

This paper provides the first integrated empirical analysis of how bank credit supply shocks propagate through both the production network and the financial network simultaneously, using the universe …

Yuliya Rychalovska · Sergey Slobodyan · Rafael Wouters

This paper asks whether Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data can be efficiently integrated into medium-scale DSGE models, and whether models with imperfectly rational expectations based on …

Gabriel Ehrlich · John Haltiwanger · Ron Jarmin · David Johnson · Ed Olivares · Luke Pardue · Matthew D. Shapiro · Laura Yi Zhao

Layer 1: Overview This paper implements and evaluates methods for constructing quality-adjusted price indices from item-level retail scanner data at scale — across hundreds of product categories, …

Poorya Kabir · Eugene Tan · Ia Vardishvili

Standard measures of capital allocative efficiency—based on the dispersion of the average revenue product of capital (ARPK)—are severely biased when capital utilization is endogenous. When utilization …

Ayşe İmrohoroğlu · Çağrı S. Kumru · Jiu Lian

This paper asks whether racial differences in labor income can simultaneously explain both the crime gap and the wealth gap between Black and White individuals in the United States. The authors build …

Pedro Bordalo · Nicola Gennaioli · Andrei Shleifer · Stephen J. Terry

This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations — beliefs that overweight the representativeness of recent data, formalized as $E_t^\theta(A_{t+1}) = E_t(A_{t+1}) + \theta[E_t(A_{t+1}) - …

Samuel Bazzi · Masyhur Hilmy · Benjamin Marx

This paper studies how Indonesia’s Islamic education sector responded to one of the largest state-driven mass schooling expansions in history — the SD INPRES program (Sekolah Dasar Presidential …

Carolina Arteaga · Victoria Barone

This paper establishes a causal connection between the opioid epidemic and the political realignment toward the Republican Party in the United States from the mid-2000s through 2022. The …

Victor Gay · Paula E. Gobbi · Marc Goñi

Gay, Gobbi, and Goñi test Le Play’s (1875) hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France’s early fertility decline by abolishing impartible inheritance. In 1793, a series of …

Henrique S. Basso · Omar Rachedi

Robot Adoption and Inflation Dynamics Research Question Basso and Rachedi investigate how robot adoption influences inflation dynamics — specifically, whether the surge in automation during the 2000s …

Tom D. Holden

The paper proposes and analyzes real rate rules — monetary policy rules of the form i_t = r_t + φπ_t (φ > 1), where r_t is the current-period real interest rate observed via TIPS yields or …

Andrew B. Abel · Stavros Panageas

Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality Research Question The paper addresses two questions about government debt rollover. First, a positive …

Marco Bacchetta · Philippe Bacchetta · Elena Perazzi

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether sovereign debt crises can be self-fulfilling — triggered by lenders’ expectations of default rather than by weak fiscal fundamentals alone — and whether …

Federico Mandelman · Mishita Mehra · Hewei Shen

High-skilled immigration policy frictions—particularly the H-1B visa lottery, fixed annual cap, and associated compliance costs—impose well-known burdens on firms, but their disproportionate impact on …

Julio L. Ortiz

This paper investigates the macroeconomic consequences of widespread just-in-time (JIT) inventory management, documenting a fundamental trade-off: JIT raises firm profitability and reduces micro-level …

Agneta Berge · Ann-Sofie Kolm · Per Krusell

This paper asks whether a labor market with search-and-matching frictions and firms producing under decreasing returns to labor is better characterized by in-house hiring with intra-firm wage …

Francesco Saverio Gaudio

This paper documents a puzzle for canonical limited-participation models: when U.S. stock market participation rose from 31.6% to 53% between 1989 and 2007—a period also characterized by the Great …

Daniel Haanwinckel

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. How do workforce composition (labor supply), labor demand, and minimum wage policy jointly determine the wage distribution in imperfectly competitive labor …

Felipe Brugués

Overview This paper studies the efficiency of self-enforced relational agreements in manufacturing supply chains when sellers have market power and contracts cannot be externally enforced. The setting …

Michael Weber · Bernardo Candia · Hassan Afrouzi · Tiziano Ropele · Rodrigo Lluberas · Serafin Frache · Brent Meyer · Saten Kumar · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Dimitris Georgarakos · Olivier Coibion · Geoff Kenny · Jorge Ponce

This paper uses randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in multiple countries to study whether the economic environment — specifically the level of inflation — affects how agents learn from …

Mark Gertler · Christopher Huckfeldt · Antonella Trigari

This paper measures and models the role of temporary layoffs (TL) in cyclical unemployment dynamics, motivating the analysis by the extraordinary surge in temporary layoffs at the onset of the …

Benjamin L. Collier · Cameron M. Ellis · Benjamin J. Keys

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the shadow cost that consumers assign to pledging their primary residence as collateral, using administrative loan application and performance data from the U.S. …

Xiaoming Li · Zheng Liu · Yuchao Peng · Zhiwei Xu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how changes in the composition (not the size) of Chinese local government debt influence bank risk-taking, credit allocation between privately …

Joshua D Gottlieb · Maria Polyakova · Kevin Rinz · Hugh Shiplett · Victoria Udalova

Overview Research Question. What do U.S. physicians earn, how is that earnings variation structured across geography and specialty, and how much does government healthcare payment policy shape those …

Michael Frakes · Jonathan Gruber

This paper asks whether racial concordance between patients and medical providers — specifically, whether Black patients are treated by Black physicians — improves use of preventive care and reduces …

Panagiotis Avramidis · George G. Pennacchi

Using 2001-2022 annual data on U.S. commercial and savings banks matched with county-level demographic data, this paper shows that banks operating in areas with older populations—measured by the …

Tanguy Bernard · Stefan Dercon · Kate Orkin · Giulio Schinaia · Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse

This paper tests whether a light-touch behavioral intervention targeting aspirations can produce persistent economic effects on a poor rural population. The research question is whether changing how …

Iacopo Morchio · Christian Moser

Layer 1: Overview This paper uses linked employer-employee data from Brazil (RAIS, 2007–2014, covering 267 million worker-years, 56 million unique workers, and 607,000 employers) to document that the …

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This paper asks why unemployment rates differ so persistently across local labor markets, and what role job creation and job destruction play in generating those differences. The authors document a …

Maarten De Ridder · Basile Grassi · Giovanni Morzenti

Using matched data combining physical production records (EAP survey) and financial statements (FARE) for 147,403 firm-years across 18 two-digit manufacturing industries in France (2009–2019), the …

Jesper Böjeryd · Roine Vestman · Björn Tyrefors · Dany Kessel

This paper estimates a causal housing wealth effect on consumption using a quasi-natural experiment in Stockholm, Sweden. The identification exploits an unanticipated political decision — announced in …

Julien Albertini · Arthur Poirier · Anthony Terriau

This paper studies the effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on educational attainment and labor market trajectories through two complementary approaches. Using policy discontinuities at U.S. …

Andrew Garin · Dmitri Koustas · Carl McPherson · Samuel Norris · Matthew Pecenco · Evan K. Rose · Yotam Shem-Tov · Jeffrey Weaver

Overview This paper estimates the causal effect of incarceration on employment, wage earnings, self-employment, and tax filing behavior using administrative criminal justice data linked to Internal …

Diego Daruich

Layer 1: Overview This paper embeds early childhood development (ECD) investment into a general-equilibrium (GE), heterogeneous-agent, overlapping-generations model calibrated to U.S. data in order to …

Masao Fukui · Emi Nakamura · Jón Steinsson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question How does an exchange rate depreciation causally affect macroeconomic outcomes? The paper asks whether depreciations are expansionary or contractionary, and through …

Adrien Bilal · Diego R. Känzig

The paper shows that the macroeconomic impact of climate change is an order of magnitude larger than what standard country-level panel estimates suggest. The key identification innovation is to …

Ana Cecília Fieler · Jonathan Eaton

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Eaton and Fieler seek to reconcile two literatures that have advanced in parallel but remained at odds: (i) general equilibrium models of bilateral trade flows …

Kyle Herkenhoff · Gueorgui Kambourov · Iourii Manovskii · Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas Sargent

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies the sources of long-term unemployment (LTU, defined as failing to find a job within six months) using administrative data on the universe of unemployment spells in …

Mikhail Golosov · Ilia Krasikov

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. What is the optimal joint nonlinear earnings tax schedule for married couples? How should one spouse’s marginal tax rate depend on the other’s …

Ronan C Lyons · Allison Shertzer · Rowena Gray · David Agorastos

Lyons, Shertzer, Gray, and Agorastos construct the first consistent, annual, quality-adjusted market rent and home sales price series for American cities spanning 1890–2006. The paper addresses a …

Nils H. Lehr · Pascual Restrepo

Leading AI firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic publicly claim dual mandates of profit and social welfare, raising the question of whether—and how—a social mandate should change their pricing and …

Marta García-Rodríguez

This paper develops a Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) search and matching model with internally rational (IR) agents who hold subjective beliefs about wages rather than perfect knowledge of the Nash …

Eliana Carranza · Aletheia Donald · Florian Grosset-Touba · Supreet Kaur

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks whether informal redistributive pressure — the social obligation to share earned income with kin and social networks — distorts labor supply in …

Mikhail Chernov · Lars A. Lochstoer · Dongho Song

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes and measures the zero-beta rate — the expected return on a portfolio of stocks with zero market beta, constructed to be orthogonal to the SDF innovations spanned …

Lu Han · L. Rachel Ngai · Kevin D. Sheedy

Layer 1 — Summary Using sales and leasing transaction records for the Greater Toronto Area (2006–2018), this paper finds three novel effects of a higher property transaction tax: higher buy-to-rent …

Urban Jermann · Haotian Xiang

The rapid proliferation of cryptocurrency tokens—roughly 10,000 outstanding with a total market capitalization around $3 trillion as of early 2024—raises new questions about the design of token …

Andres Rodriguez-Clare · Mauricio Ulate · Jose P. Vasquez

Standard international trade models assume perfectly flexible prices and full employment. This paper introduces nominal rigidities (downward wage rigidity) into a quantitative trade model and asks how …

Natalie Bau · Gaurav Khanna · Corinne Low · Alessandra Voena

This paper asks whether dowry — a transfer from the bride’s family to the groom’s household upon marriage, prevalent throughout India — enables male migration by providing liquidity that …

Kieu-Trang Nguyen

This paper investigates whether and how a CEO’s inherited generalized trust enhances innovation within firms, offering a micro-foundation for the well-documented macro-level relationship between …

Ding Dong · Zheng Liu · Pengfei Wang

Firm-level evidence shows that recessions are characterized not just by aggregate downturns but by a sharp rise in turbulence—a reshuffling of firms’ productivity rankings in which …

Karlye Dilts Stedman · Andrew Hanson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper asks why unconventional monetary policy (UMP) spillovers from the European Central Bank (ECB) to the U.S. Treasury yield curve vary so substantially over …

Jonas E. Arias · Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez · Daniel F. Waggoner

Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions are a widely used tool for estimating dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics. Critics—notably Baumeister and Hamilton …

Zhengyang Jiang · Hanno Lustig · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh · Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the U.S. government exploits its market power as the dominant global supplier of safe assets when setting the quantity of public debt, and quantifies the …

Desmond Ang · Sahil Chinoy

This paper provides the first causal evidence on how military service shaped Black civil rights activism in the aftermath of World War I. The research question is whether random induction into the …

Ellora Derenoncourt · David Weil

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies the labor market effects of voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) — company-wide, publicly announced wage floors set by large private employers — in …

Sebastian Heise · Jeremy Pearce · Jacob P. Weber

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Which measures of labor market tightness best predict nominal wage inflation, and do standard measures such as the unemployment rate and the …

Barbara Biasi · Julien Lafortune · David Schönholzer

What Works and for Whom? Effectiveness and Efficiency of School Capital Investments Across the U.S. Research Question This paper investigates which types of school facility investments benefit …

Nicholas Kozeniauskas

The entrepreneurship rate in the United States—defined as the share of the labor force who own and actively manage a business with at least ten employees—declined by 26% between 1987 and 2015, a …

Nirupama L Rao · Max Risch

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how independent (pass-through) businesses in the United States accommodate minimum wage increases — specifically whether they reduce employment, …

Gordon B. Dahl · Matthew Knepper

Layer 1 — Summary Research question and argument Dahl and Knepper address the long-standing puzzle of why workplace sexual harassment is chronically underreported despite high estimated prevalence. …