Online-First

Stephie Fried

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the distributional welfare impacts of higher temperatures from climate change across income groups in the United …

Marc K Chan (University of Melbourne · Tax and Transfer Policy Institute); Cain Polidano (University of Melbourne · TTPI · ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families Over the LifeCourse); Ha Vu (Deakin University · TTPI); Roger Wilkins (University of Melbourne · TTPI · IZA); Andrew Carter (Australian Taxation Office); Hang To (Australian Taxation Office)

Layer 1: Overview Governments across ten-plus countries — including Australia, the United States, Germany, and New Zealand — have introduced matching schemes to encourage low- and middle-income …

Peyman Firouzi Naeim · David W Johnston · Maryam Naghsh-Nejad

Layer 1: Overview This paper examines how workplace environments shape the economic consequences that fall on mothers — but not fathers — when a child is diagnosed with cancer. The motivation is a gap …

Kjetil Storesletten · Bo Zhao · Fabrizio Zilibotti

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and …

Saki Bigio (University of California · Los Angeles) · Diego R Känzig (Northwestern University) · Pablo Sánchez (Northwestern University) · Conor Walsh (Columbia University)

Layer 1: Overview This paper quantifies the sources and distributional consequences of unexpected carbon price changes for European households using a money-metric welfare framework. The motivation is …

Lucas Corrêa-Dias (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV) · Jordan J Norris (New York University Abu Dhabi) · Heitor S Pellegrina (University of Notre Dame)

Layer 1: Overview Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Layer 1: Overview Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) …

Philipp Hochmuth (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Per Krusell (Stockholm University; NBER; CEPR); Kurt Mitman (Stockholm University; CEPR; CEMFI; IZA)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the EU’s Fit-for-55 climate package will affect aggregate output and distribute its costs across the income distribution. The question matters …

Robert P Lieli (Central European University · Austria); Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu (Universidad Nacional de Tucuman · Argentina)

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call …

Hyejoon Im (Yeungnam University · South Korea) · John McLaren (University of Virginia · USA)

Layer 1: Overview Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called “race to the bottom” (RTB) hypothesis. The …

Giorgio Chiovelli (Universidad de Montevideo); Stelios Michalopoulos (Brown University · CEPR · NBER); Elias Papaioannou (London Business School · CEPR); Tanner Regan (George Washington University)

Layer 1: Overview Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and …

Christian Bredemeier (University of Wuppertal; IZA) · Babette Jansen (University of Antwerp) · Roland Winkler (University of Antwerp; Friedrich Schiller University Jena)

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes a novel fiscal transmission channel through which government spending expansions reduce employer monopsony power in the labor market, generating larger fiscal …

Vincenzo De Lipsis (University of Southampton; Bartlett School · UCL); Matteo Deleidi (University of Bari Aldo Moro; IIPP · UCL); Mariana Mazzucato (IIPP · UCL); Paolo Agnolucci (Bartlett School · UCL; World Bank)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational …

Ariel Karlinsky · Moses Shayo

Layer 1: Overview Karlinsky and Shayo ask which governments manipulate public information, in which direction, and by how much — questions that are normally intractable because the ground truth is …

Christiaan van der Kwaak (University of Groningen)

Layer 1: Overview When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the …

Thomas Douenne (University of Amsterdam); Albert Jan Hummel (University of Groningen); Marcelo Pedroni (Inter-American Development Bank; University of Amsterdam)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether inequality and redistributive taxation should make climate policy more or less ambitious, and how optimal carbon taxes interact with optimal income taxes when …

Frédéric Docquier (LISER · Luxembourg) · Stefano Iandolo (Università degli Studi di Salerno) · Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics · CEPII · LISER · CEPR) · Riccardo Turati (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona · IZA · RFBerlin) · Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (Université catholique de Louvain)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, …

Alessandra Fenizia (The George Washington University) · Nicholas Li (The George Washington University) · Luca Citino (Bank of Italy)

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll tax reductions as a tool for stimulating labor demand among marginalized workers, using a natural experiment from Italy. …

Hideki Nakamura · Masakatsu Nakamura · Shota Moriwaki

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks a foundational question: can the economy-wide degree of automation be measured coherently from standard macroeconomic data, without relying on technology-specific …

Maximilian Konradt (Imperial College London); Giacomo Mangiante (Bank of Italy)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes economic costs that are unequally distributed across European regions, and whether …

Thomas Bourany (Columbia University · USA) · Jordan Rosenthal-Kay (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco · USA)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks who wins and loses from climate policies — carbon taxes, renewable subsidies, and carbon tariffs — across 193 heterogeneous countries, and by how much. The motivation …

Julián Costas-Fernández (University of Surrey · UK); José-Alberto Guerra (Universidad de los Andes · Colombia); Myra Mohnen (University of Ottawa and CEP LSE · Canada)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over …

Sarah Sander (University of Copenhagen)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the causal effects of universal daycare access on mothers’ labor force participation, full-time employment, hours worked, and earnings across 34 years …

Melanie Wallskog (Duke University) · Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University) · Scott Ohlmacher (Federal Reserve Board) · Cristina Tello-Trillo (U.S. Census Bureau)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how within-firm pay inequality relates to firm-level labor productivity, using a novel linkage of three confidential U.S. Census Bureau datasets covering …

Juan J Dolado · Etienne Lalé · Hélène Turon

Layer 1: Overview Dolado, Lalé, and Turon build a structural equilibrium model of the U.K. low-wage labour market to evaluate zero-hours contracts (ZHCs), employment agreements under which firms are …

Yang Han · Jun Ma

This paper proposes a shadow rate no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model (SDTSM) with drifting trends to estimate the long-run trend of the real interest rate using yield curve data from the U.S., …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers …

THORSTEN BECK · PETER BEDNAREK · DANIEL TE KAAT · NATALJA VON WESTERNHAGEN

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system’s foreign-asset exposure plays in …

Ilyana Kuziemko · Nicolas Longuet-Marx · Suresh Naidu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Why have less-educated voters in the United States abandoned the Democratic Party over recent decades? The paper argues that the Democratic Party’s …

Pedro Bordalo · Nicola Gennaioli · Giacomo Lanzani · Andrei Shleifer

Bordalo, Gennaioli, Lanzani, and Shleifer develop a cognitive theory of choice in which a decision maker’s attention to the features of options is determined by her categorization of the current …

Volha Audzei · Ivan Sutóris

Layer 1: Overview Audzei and Sutóris ask whether inflation-targeting monetary policy affects households’ incentives to invest in energy conservation, and whether the standard central bank …

DOMINIK BODDIN · DANIEL MARCEL TE KAAT · CHANG MA · ALESSANDRO REBUCCI

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing …

Davide Viviano · Kaspar Wüthrich · Paul Niehaus

This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what …

Daniel J Lewis · Karel Mertens

This paper develops a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that: (1) generalizes the Stock-Yogo (2005) and Sanderson-Windmeijer (2016) tests to be robust to …

Allen N. Berger · Onesime Epouhe · Raluca A. Roman

This paper examines the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—two government bailout programs during the Global Financial Crisis and the …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Benjamin Born · Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Georgi Kocharkov · Ralph Luetticke · Michael Weber

The paper studies Germany’s temporary 3 percentage-point VAT cut from July 1 to December 31, 2020 (standard rate 19%→16%, reduced rate 7%→5%), combining two causal identification strategies with …

Mathieu Pedemonte · Hiroshi Toma · Esteban Verdugo

Consumers’ inflation expectations are heterogeneous across birth cohorts and history-dependent: using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), the paper documents that each …

Andrea Matranga · Timur Natkhov

This paper investigates the origins of serfdom in early modern Russia, arguing that the institution consolidated primarily through political economy dynamics between the crown and a landholding …

Cooper Howes · Gregory Weitzner

Bank Information Production Over the Business Cycle Research Question Banks produce private information about borrowers that is inherently unobservable to outside researchers. Howes and Weitzner ask …

SANG RAE KIM

This paper studies when a bank is more effective as a supplier of privately produced money-like safe assets (repo, commercial paper), finding that a bank produces safer, more liquid assets when (1) …

David Rivero · Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal

Layer 1: Overview This paper demonstrates that the canonical efficiency result of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) — that banks using maturity transformation can decentralize the first-best risk-sharing …

Anna Tompsett

This paper measures the causal effects of land transport infrastructure on economic activity, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in bridge construction over the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the …

Gorkem Bostanci · Guillermo Ordoñez

The paper studies how the two roles of stock markets — revealing information about firms’ fundamentals (which guides capital allocation) and providing liquidity — interact, arguing that when …

Kevin X.D. Huang · Qinglai Meng · Jianpo Xue

Layer 1: Overview This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget …

Matti Liski · François Salanie

This paper develops a general model of experimentation under catastrophe risk in which the catastrophe is triggered when a stock variable exceeds an unknown threshold, but occurs only after a …

Hanfeng Chen · Maria Elena Filippin

The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …

BENJAMÍN GARCÍA · ARSENIOS SKAPERDAS

This paper constructs a new measure of political pressure on the Federal Reserve from textual analysis of Fed Chairs’ testimonies at Humphrey-Hawkins congressional hearings, and documents that …

Paola Manzini · Marco Mariotti · Levent Ülkü

Layer 1 — Overview This paper develops a unified choice-theoretic framework in which agents evaluate alternatives not in isolation but relative to their opportunity costs — the alternatives they …

Barbara Annicchiarico · Marco Carli · Francesca Diluiso

This paper embeds a carbon pricing sector into an extended DSGE model with a financial accelerator (E-DSGE) featuring heterogeneous firms, bank monitoring, and a borrowing-constraint amplification …

Abhay Aneja · Silvia Farina · Guo Xu

This paper asks whether exposure to greater female representation in the workplace can persistently reduce intergenerational gender gaps in labor market outcomes. The authors exploit the sudden, …

Alexander M Jakobsen

This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes’ rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals …

Takuo Sugaya · Alexander Wolitzky

This paper asks how a third-party intermediary (an “algorithm”) that observes market demand or costs superior to competing firms should optimally disclose that information to maximize the …

Marco Cosconati · Yi Xin · Fan Wu · Yizhou Jin

This paper studies imperfect competition in selection markets where competing firms have heterogeneous information about consumers — a layer of asymmetry distinct from the classic buyer-seller …

Walter Beckert · Howard Smith · Yuya Takahashi

Research Question How does individually negotiated pricing — where buyers make discrete choices among differentiated products and negotiate transaction-specific prices — affect market power and merger …

Ilwoo Hwang · Kyungmin Kim · Raphael Boleslavsky

Hwang, Kim, and Boleslavsky study how firms in an oligopoly simultaneously choose prices and advertising strategies, where advertising is modeled as the choice of how much product information to …

Sara G Castellanos · Diego Jiménez-Hernández · Aprajit Mahajan · Eduardo Alcaraz Prous · Enrique Seira

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks two related questions bearing on financial inclusion policy in developing countries: (1) How effective are credit card contract term changes — …

Frank Yang

This paper studies when a principal can improve upon simple one-dimensional mechanisms by also deploying costly nonprice screening instruments — actions that are socially wasteful yet potentially …

Myrto Kalouptsidi · Yuichi Kitamura · Lucas Lima · Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

Research Question. Discrete choice data identify only differences in agents’ utilities, not utility levels. In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models this means many policy-relevant …

Stefania D'Amico · Iryna Kaminska

Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England’s published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, …

Marek Ignaszak · Petr Sedláček

This paper asks whether firm-level customer acquisition — distinct from productivity differences — is a quantitatively important driver of aggregate economic growth, and whether ignoring it distorts …

Fabian Gogolin · Ivan Lim · Francesco Vallascas

This paper studies what happens to local banking markets when a small bank suffers a successful cyberattack, using a stacked difference-in-differences design on 16 cyber incidents at small U.S. banks …

Pol Campos-Mercade · Lorenz Goette · Thomas Graeber · Alexandre Kellogg · Charles Sprenger

This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …

Gu Jin · Tao Zhu

This paper applies a multiple-denomination commodity money model — building on Lee, Wallace, and Zhu (2005) — to coinage episodes in late medieval England, and derives two main findings. Shortages of …

Victor Chernozhukov · Kaspar Wuthrich · Yinchu Zhu

Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Chen Qiu · Jörg Stoye

This paper applies classical statistical decision theory (Wald 1950) to treatment choice problems where the data only partially identify payoff-relevant parameters. The policy maker chooses an action …

Nikhil Agarwal · Paulo Somaini

Agarwal and Somaini study demand estimation in markets where consumers face latent choice constraints — situations where a consumer’s effective choice set is determined not only by her …

Alan J Auerbach · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Daniel Murphy

This paper estimates the distributional and social consequences of Department of Defense (DOD) contract spending using a city-level (CBSA) panel dataset spanning 2005–2016. The research question is …

Julien Bengui · Louphou Coulibaly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from …

Francesco Ferrante · Nils Gornemann

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Ferrante and Gornemann study the aggregate and redistributive effects of currency devaluations in emerging market economies, focusing on a feature that prior …

El Hadi Caoui · Andrew Steck

This paper investigates how buyer demand for supplier diversification shapes entry incentives and market structure, using the global undersea fiber-optic cable industry as the empirical setting. The …

Alec Brandon · Paul J Ferraro · John A List · Robert D Metcalfe · Michael K Price · Florian Rundhammer

This paper asks why the Home Energy Report (HER) — a widely deployed social-comparison nudge that shows households how their electricity consumption compares to their neighbors — produces behavioral …

Lee K. Davison · Carlos D. Ramirez

Overview Research question. Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Matthew Leisten · Nicholas Vreugdenhil

This paper evaluates the efficiency of linked environmental regulation, a targeting mechanism whereby inspectors who discover violations at one plant can increase enforcement pressure on other plants …

Mohammed Abdellaoui · Philippe Colo · Brian Hill

Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …

Thomas R Covert · Ryan Kellogg

Covert and Kellogg study policies that aim to “keep carbon in the ground” by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment, with the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) as their empirical …

Christoph Wegener · Robinson Kruse-Becher · Tony Klein

This paper tests whether the sharp rise in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowance prices from 2018 onward was driven by a rational bubble. The methodological contribution is to modify the Fama …

Ralph S.J. Koijen · Motohiro Yogo

The paper develops an asset demand system to analyze, jointly and across all countries, how international portfolio holdings and flows, exchange rates, short-term rates, long-term yields, and equity …

Jeffrey Chiang · Reka Zoch

This paper develops a sufficient statistics approach to measuring the aggregate demand effects of financial intermediation disturbances — shocks to the ability of financial intermediaries to supply …

Wenhao Li · Ye Li

Crises have cleansing effects—low-quality firms face greater financial shortfalls and invest less than high-quality firms—but public credit support dampens these effects by reducing financing cost …

Tan Gan · Nicholas Wu

This paper studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which an informed seller sells an experience good to a skeptical buyer who learns about the product through consumption. The central question …

Emanuele Ciola · Gabriele Tedeschi

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the endogenous structure of credit, deposit, and interbank networks shapes business cycle fluctuations and large financial crises in the U.S. economy. …

Markus Hertrich · Daniel Nathan

This paper uses confidential daily data on the Bank of Israel’s (BOI) foreign exchange purchase program in the USD/Israeli new shekel (ILS) spot market from 2013 to 2019 to study how FX …

Nava Ashraf · Maxim Bakhtin · Erica Field · Alessandra Voena · Roberta Ziparo

This paper investigates whether information asymmetries within households about maternal health risk can explain persistent spousal disagreement over fertility in a high-fertility, …

Amory Gethin · Emmanuel Saez

Drawing on about 5,000 labor force and household surveys from 160 countries that cover 97% of the world’s population, this paper builds a new global database of hours worked and shows that hours …

Kristian S. Blickle · Sarah N. Hamerling · Donald P. Morgan

Using FEMA disaster declarations matched to SHELDUS property-damage estimates and Call Report data for 1995–2018, this paper finds that weather disasters — even at their most severe — have had modest …

Rodney J. Garratt · Zhentong Lu · Phoebe Tian

This paper uses detailed transaction-level data from Canada’s new high-value payment system (HVPS) to show how participants save liquidity by strategically exploiting the gridlock resolution …

Wooyong Lee

This paper studies linear panel data models where regression coefficients are individual-specific (random coefficients) and regressors may be predetermined — that is, sequentially exogenous rather …

Aprajit Mahajan · Christian Michel · Alessandro Tarozzi

This paper addresses two related problems: the formal identification of time-inconsistent preferences in dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneous types, and the structural …

Aimé Bierdel · Andres Drenik · Juan Herreño · Pablo Ottonello

The paper develops a quantitative capital-accumulation model in which capital trades in illiquid markets with asymmetric information — sellers know the quality of their capital but buyers do not. It …

Sebastian Doerr · Thomas Drechsel · Donggyu Lee

The paper establishes a causal link from rising top income shares to reduced net job creation at small firms, working through a bank funding channel rooted in non-homothetic household portfolio …

Xincheng Qiu · Nicoló Russo

The paper provides the most comprehensive cross-country empirical characterisation of effective income tax functions to date, estimating the two-parameter log-linear tax function — pioneered by …

Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in …

Joaquin Blaum · Federico Esposito · Sebastian Heise

Blaum, Esposito, and Heise study how supply chain risk — specifically, the risk of unexpected shipping delays caused by ocean weather conditions — affects U.S. manufacturing firms’ import …

Paul H S Kim · Anran Li

Kim and Li study how publicly provided reinsurance affects insurer behavior and market outcomes in health insurance markets where firms face substantial cost uncertainty. The central question is …

Mauricio Barbosa-Alves · Javier Bianchi · César Sosa-Padilla

The paper extends the Cole-Kehoe (2000) sovereign rollover crisis model to include international reserves and derives the joint optimal management of sovereign debt and reserves in a small open …

Marianne Bertrand · Matilde Bombardini · Raymond Fisman · Francesco Trebbi · Eyub Yegen

This paper investigates whether institutional investors influence the political activities of their portfolio firms, using political action committee (PAC) giving as a window into the broader question …

Bruce E Hansen

Hansen (2025) makes a theoretical case for replacing the conventional cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) and heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors with a specific jackknife variance …

Guillermo A. Calvo · Andrés Velasco

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Calvo and Velasco study an economy where both money and government bonds provide liquidity services, and they show that this shared role implies …

Saleem Bahaj · Ricardo Reis

This paper asks how a currency achieves international status — moving from zero to positive cross-border use — and whether deliberate central bank policy can accelerate that transition. The authors …

Daniel Lewis · Davide Melcangi · Laura Pilossoph

Lewis, Melcangi, and Pilossoph estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using the 2008 Economic Stimulus Act (ESA) rebate payments, deploying Gaussian …

Javier Bianchi · Louphou Coulibaly

The paper develops a tractable open-economy New Keynesian model with nominal rigidities and an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) to study how monetary policy and macroprudential policy …

Ke-Li Xu

This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …

Alessia De Stefani · Rui C. Mano

This paper uses instrumental-variable local projections (IV-LP) on an unbalanced panel of up to 35 countries over approximately two decades to establish two interconnected findings about fixed-rate …

Maximilian Grimm · Òscar Jordà · Moritz Schularick · Alan M. Taylor

This paper provides the first long-run causal evidence that a persistently loose stance of monetary policy — defined as extended periods of low interest rates relative to the neutral rate — …

Virginia Minni

This paper asks why managers matter for firm performance, and specifically whether managers improve productivity by matching workers to better-suited jobs inside firms rather than through supervision, …

Renjie Bao · Jan De Loecker · Jan Eeckhout

This paper asks whether managers are paid for market power. Bao, De Loecker, and Eeckhout build a general equilibrium model in which firms compete oligopolistically in goods markets (following Atkeson …

KOZO UEDA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) stems from temporary circumstances (e.g., transient wealth shocks that tighten …

MIRKO ABBRITTI · SEBASTIAN WEBER

This paper develops a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous TFP growth and product and labor market frictions to assess how cross-country differences in market regulation affect …

Matthew Elliott · Andrea Galeotti · Andrew Koh · Wenhao Li

This paper asks what market outcomes an information designer — modeled as an internet platform that knows consumers’ preferences — can achieve by choosing what information to disclose to …

Niko Jaakkola · Florian Wagener

This paper by Jaakkola and Wagener addresses a long-standing open problem in the theory of differential games: how to make Markov-perfect equilibria (MPE) well-defined when best-response policy …

Eric Anderson · Sergio Rebelo · Arlene Wong

Anderson, Rebelo, and Wong study the behavior of markups in the retail sector across regions and over time, using a combination of firm-level Compustat data and product-level scanner data from two …

Guido Menzio

What this paper finds — and why it matters Across macroeconomics, market power is almost always modelled with the Dixit–Stiglitz (1977) monopolistic-competition framework, in which a seller’s …

Kelli Marquardt

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of ADHD diagnosis to decompose the mechanisms driving the observed 2.3:1 male-to-female diagnostic difference in the United States. The research …

JULIO L. ORTIZ

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a “misspecified …

Maximilian Schröder

This paper introduces a Bayesian Gaussian mixture density regression framework that estimates the complete forecast distribution of inflation — not just selected quantiles — and decomposes the entire …

GEORGE J. BRATSIOTIS · KASUN D. PATHIRAGE

This paper introduces a four-agent estimated New Keynesian DSGE model—comprising banked simple households, underbanked simple households, firm owners, and bank owners—to examine agent-specific and …

Frederic Boissay · Fabrice Collard · Jordi Gali · Cristina Manea

This paper asks whether a central bank should deviate from strict inflation targeting (SIT) to promote financial stability, studying the question in a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with …

Sandra Daudignon · Oreste Tristani

This paper analyzes how monetary policy should respond to a long-run natural interest rate that can drift permanently — following a bounded random walk with upper bound 3 percent and lower bound 0 …

Michael T. Kiley

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under discretion when the loss function is asymmetric — placing greater weight on employment shortfalls than on equivalently sized employment strength. The …

Sebastian Schmidt

The paper builds a discrete-time DSGE model with Calvo sticky prices in which the public sector has two feedback rules that can hit corners, generating endogenous shifts between an …

Fiorella De Fiore · Marie Hoerova · Ciaran Rogers · Harald Uhlig

The paper studies the euro area interbank money markets during the global financial crisis (2007–09) and sovereign debt crisis (2010–15), documenting four empirical regularities and building a …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Christian Bayer · Heiko Stüber · Felix Wellschmied

Layer 1 — Summary When employers face a trade-off between growing large and paying low wages — that is, when they have monopsony power — some productive employers will decide to acquire fewer …

Peter Andre · Ingar Haaland · Christopher Roth · Mirko Wiederholt · Johannes Wohlfart

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates two related empirical questions in the context of the historic surge in US inflation in late 2021 and 2022: (1) What narratives—causal …

Michael P Leung · Hyungsik Roger Moon

This paper proves a central limit theorem (CLT) for network formation models with strategic interactions and homophilous agents, addressing a foundational inferential gap in the econometrics of large …

Bruno Conte · Klaus Desmet · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Standard analyses of unilateral carbon taxes ignore the spatial reallocation of economic activity induced by the policy, leading them to overstate the costs and understate the effectiveness of such …

Árpád Ábrahám · Eva Carceles-Poveda · Yan Liu · Ramon Marimon

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how to optimally design a Financial Stability Fund (Fund) for a union of sovereign countries that must simultaneously (i) prevent sovereign …

Daron Acemoglu · Daniel Huttenlocher · Asuman Ozdaglar · James Siderius

Acemoglu, Huttenlocher, Ozdaglar, and Siderius develop a two-sided platform model to study the welfare consequences of digital advertising as an online business model. The platform intermediates …

Volker Britz · Hans Gersbach

This paper revisits the open rule legislative bargaining model of Baron and Ferejohn (1989) — the dominant workhorse model in political economy for analyzing how legislatures divide a surplus — and …

Timothy Christensen · Hyungsik Roger Moon · Frank Schorfheide

This paper derives asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when the payoffs associated with some choices are only partially identified. The research question is: …

Karun Adusumilli

This paper addresses a practical gap in the inference literature for sequential and adaptive experiments: while the design of such experiments has been studied extensively, there is little theory …

Klaus M Schmidt · Jonas von Wangenheim

Schmidt and von Wangenheim develop a dynamic model of organizational change in which workers have reference-dependent preferences — specifically loss aversion and social comparisons — to explain …

Jens H. E. Christensen · Simon T. Hetland

The paper introduces the concept of “passive quantitative easing” (passive QE): a deliberate reduction in government debt issuance that lowers anticipated future bond supply and reduces …

Fabio Bertolotti

This paper examines how anticipated changes in patent term affect R&D and innovation, using the U.S. ratification of the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement in …

Silvia Miranda-Agrippino · Sinem Hacıoğlu-Hoke · Kristina Bluwstein

This paper constructs an instrumental variable for technology news shocks using patent applications, relaxing all identifying assumptions traditionally used in the news-shock literature. The IV is the …

Yuteng Cheng · Ryuichiro Izumi

This paper examines how the degree of user anonymity built into a central bank digital currency (CBDC) affects bank lending decisions and what this implies for the optimal design of CBDC anonymity. …

Michela Maria Tincani

This paper investigates the mechanisms behind peer effects in the classroom using exogenous variation in study disruptions generated by the 2010 Maule mega-earthquake in Chile (magnitude 8.8, the …

Menaka Hampole · Francesca Truffa · Ashley Wong

This paper investigates whether exposure to a larger share of female peers during an MBA program causally affects the gender gap in senior corporate leadership positions. The research question is …

Nail Kashaev · Natalia Lazzati · Ruli Xiao

This paper develops a general nonparametric model of discrete choice in which peers influence agents through two distinct channels: (1) the set of alternatives an agent considers (consideration set …

Beat Hintermann · Beaumont Schoeman · Joseph Molloy · Thomas Götschi · Alberto Castro · Christopher Tchervenkov · Uros Tomic · Kay W Axhausen

This paper reports on the MOBIS experiment, a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) implementing a multi-modal Pigovian transport pricing scheme in urban areas of German- and French-speaking …

Thomas Drechsel

This paper combines a hand-collected archival data set of over 800 personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Federal Reserve officials from 1933 to 2016 with a narrative structural VAR to …

José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez · Salvador Gil-Guirado · Nicholas Ryan

This paper studies rainmaking as an instrumental religious belief. The central research question is: why do people believe that prayer can bring rain, even though it does not work? The authors develop …

Lassi Ahlvik · Jørgen Juel Andersen · Jonas Hveding Hamang · Torfinn Harding

This paper asks three questions about supply-side climate policies in the oil market: how do oil companies respond to production-based taxes; what are the aggregate effects of such taxes on global CO2 …

Ian Schofield Ball · Deniz Kattwinkel

Ball and Kattwinkel study quota mechanisms — linking mechanisms that impose aggregate constraints on agents’ reports across multiple decision problems — and provide the first theoretical …

Cody Tuttle

This paper studies racial disparities in federal criminal sentencing by analyzing abnormal bunching in the distribution of crack-cocaine amounts recorded at sentencing. The identifying variation comes …

Hubert János Kiss · Alfonso Rosa García · Lukas Voellmy

Layer 1: Overview This paper uses laboratory experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of two liquidity management tools — redemption fees and redemption gates — in reducing runs on money market funds …

Ojasvita Bahl · Chetan Ghate · Debdulal Mallick

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) routinely intervene in agricultural markets — procuring grain and redistributing it …

José E. Gutiérrez

This paper provides a contract-theoretic rationale for the special liquidity regulation of bank credit lines—a form of lending that has received little attention in the regulatory literature despite …

Johnny Tang

This paper quantitatively assesses the consequences of jurisdictional competition in the US life insurance industry, an $8 trillion market. The central question is whether competition between state …

Boaz Abramson · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abramson and Van Nieuwerburgh study Rent Guarantee Insurance (RGI), a product in which an insurer pays the landlord on behalf of a tenant who defaults on rent due to a negative income or health …

ANNA GRODECKA‐MESSI · JIEYING LI · XIN ZHANG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates how rising house prices affect the composition of household debt portfolios in Sweden during 2010–2014. Specifically, the authors ask …

Timothy B. Armstrong · Martin Weidner · Andrei Zeleneev

This paper develops new estimation and inference tools for the coefficient on a covariate of interest in large panel regressions whose unobserved heterogeneity has an interactive fixed effects …

Oleg Itskhoki · Dmitry Mukhin

Layer 1 — Core Argument Itskhoki and Mukhin develop a tractable open-economy model with financial market segmentation — in which only the government sector (including state banks and exporting firms) …

Aram Grigoryan

Grigoryan (2021) develops a unified general-equilibrium framework that jointly models school assignment mechanisms and the housing market to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of …

Deniz Dutz · Ingrid Huitfeldt · Santiago Lacouture · Magne Mogstad · Alexander Torgovitsky · Winnie van Dijk

This paper addresses nonresponse bias in surveys — the distortion that arises when survey participants differ systematically from nonparticipants in ways that correlate with the survey’s …

François Le Grand · Alaïs Martin-Baillon · Xavier Ragot

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should monetary policy deviate from price stability to address redistributive concerns in an economy with heterogeneous agents? The paper jointly solves for …

Duncan Webb

This paper examines how two types of communication about a minority group affect discriminatory behavior: (i) horizontal communication between majority-group members, and (ii) top-down communication …

Oren Danieli

This paper proposes a model of skill-replacing routine-biased technological change (SR-RBTC) to explain patterns in U.S. bottom-half wage inequality that standard RBTC models cannot account for. The …

Mariaflavia Harari · Maisy Wong

This paper estimates the long-term causal effects of the Kampung Improvement Program (KIP), one of the world’s largest slum upgrading programs, on urban development in Jakarta, Indonesia. KIP …

Matthew J Delventhal · Andrii Parkhomenko

Delventhal and Parkhomenko build a quantitative spatial model of the United States to study how the rise of telecommuting reshapes the distribution of residents, jobs, and housing costs across and …

Nicola Mastrorocco · Edoardo Teso

Mastrorocco and Teso study how the internal organization of a state evolves during national development, framing state capacity as an organizational — specifically a principal-agent — problem. Using a …

Nicolas Coeurdacier · Florian Oswald · Marc Teignier

This paper asks how cities grow in the process of structural transformation — specifically, whether urban expansion occurs at the intensive margin (higher density within a fixed area) or the extensive …

Andrew Caplin · Victoria Gregory · Eungik Lee · Søren Leth-Petersen · Johan Sæverud

The paper introduces a survey instrument — fielded in the Copenhagen Life Panel in January 2021 to about 10,900 employed Danes aged 20-65 — that measures how much earnings risk workers subjectively …

Ivan T Ivanov · Luke Pettit · Toni M Whited

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Does corporate income taxation raise or lower corporate leverage? The canonical Modigliani-Miller (1963) view holds that the interest tax deduction makes debt more …

MASAZUMI HATTORI · TOMOHIDE MINEYAMA · JOUCHI NAKAJIMA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal …

Michela Giorcelli · Bo Li

This paper estimates the causal effect of technology and knowledge transfers on early industrial development using the Sino-Soviet Alliance of the 1950s as a natural experiment. Between 1950 and 1957, …

Soonwoo Kwon · Jonathan Roth

Kwon and Roth develop econometric tests for the “sharp null of full mediation”: the hypothesis that a treatment D affects an outcome Y only through a specified mechanism (or set of …

Bryony Reich

This paper examines how the architecture of social networks shapes the success or failure of technology diffusion when adoption decisions exhibit strategic complementarities. The research question is: …

Samuel Bazzi · Andreas Ferrara · Martin Fiszbein · Thomas Pearson · Patrick A Testa

This paper investigates how white migration out of the postbellum South diffused Confederate culture and entrenched racial norms across the United States during a critical juncture of westward …

Greg Howard · Hansen Shao

Howard and Shao document a new empirical regularity in U.S. internal migration: the t-year interstate migration rate — defined as the share of people living in a different state than they did t years …

Zihao Li · Jonathan Libgober

This paper develops a dynamic principal-agent model in which a principal seeks to select exactly one project from a stream of possibilities emerging over time, while a biased agent (who wants any …

Ravi Jagadeesan · Alexander Teytelboym

This paper develops an economic theory of competitive equilibrium with indivisible goods that accommodates both complementarities and substitutabilities. The central research question is: what …

Ulrika Ahrsjo · Costas Meghir · Marten Palme · Marieke Schnabel

This paper studies the intergenerational effects of education policy on crime, asking whether a compulsory schooling reform that reduced crime among those directly exposed also reduced crime among …

Kyle Greenberg · Melanie Wasserman · E Anna Weber

Greenberg, Wasserman, and Weber (2024/2026) ask whether men negatively respond—in terms of job performance, behavior, and workplace perceptions—when women first enter an exclusively male occupation. …

Elio Nimier-David · David Sraer · David Thesmar

This paper studies the causal effects of mandatory profit-sharing on workers and firms using a quasi-experimental design arising from a 1990 French reform that lowered the eligibility threshold for …

IVAN LIM · JENS HAGENDORFF · SETH ARMITAGE

Using closures of U.S. bank regulatory offices between 2002 and 2013 as difference-in-differences shocks to the physical proximity between supervisors and the community banks they oversee, the paper …

Javier D Donna · José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez

Donna and Espín-Sánchez investigate whether a market (sequential English auction) or a non-market institution (fixed quota) more efficiently allocates an intermediate good — irrigation water — when …

David A. Green · Ben M. Sand · Iain G. Snoddy · Jeanne Tschopp

This paper estimates the impact of unions on nonunion wage setting in the United States over the period 1980–2010, distinguishing two channels through which unions affect nonunion wages: (1) a …

Marianna Blix Grimaldi · Alberto Crosta · Dong Zhang

This paper uses transaction-level bond data under MiFID I and II to measure five dimensions of Swedish government bond market liquidity during the Riksbank’s QE program (2015–2020) and …

Isaac Baley · Andrés Blanco

Overview Research question. How does partial capital irreversibility — arising from a wedge between the purchase price and the resale (discounted) price of capital — shape the persistence and …

Felipe Saffie · Liliana Varela · Kei-Mu Yi

Using the 2001 Hungarian capital account liberalization as a quasi-natural experiment and census-level firm data covering the entire economy (1992–2008), the paper identifies two channels through …

Clare Balboni · Robin Burgess · Benjamin A Olken

This paper studies the economics of illegal tropical forest fires in Indonesia, framed as a modern counterpart to Pigou’s canonical externality example of sparks from railway engines. The …

Natalia Emanuel · Emma Harrington · Amanda Pallais

This paper studies how physical proximity to coworkers affects on-the-job training and productivity, using software engineers at a Fortune 500 online retailer observed from 2019 to 2024. The authors …

Veasna Kheng · Lei Pan · Xiaodong Fan

This paper builds and estimates a small open economy real-business-cycle (SOE-RBC) model for Cambodia augmented with two non-standard external-sector shocks — net unilateral transfers (remittances and …

Susan Athey · Raj Chetty · Guido W Imbens · Hyunseung Kang

This paper addresses a fundamental challenge in program evaluation: primary outcomes of interest — such as lifetime earnings or long-term employment — are often observed only with lengthy delays, …

Mamoon Kader · Hashmat Khan · Minjoon Lee · Raúl Razo-García

Layer 1: Overview This paper uses an open-economy heterogeneous-household model with incomplete markets to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) …

Gordon B. Dahl · Matthew M. Knepper

Seven U.S. states permanently cut unemployment insurance (UI) benefits by 30–64 percent between 2011 and 2014, providing the study’s quasi-experimental variation. North Carolina enacted the …

Yuliyan Mitkov · Ulrich Schüwer

This paper documents that U.S. metropolitan statistical areas with higher income inequality have a larger share of failed banks, higher average bank default probabilities, and greater dispersion of …

Daniel Björkegren · Joshua E Blumenstock · Samsun Knight

This paper asks a fundamental question about policy design: when a program prioritizes one group over another, is that because the group benefits more from the intervention, or because the policy …

John J Conlon · Dev Patel

Conlon and Patel test whether students stereotype the link between college majors and occupations — that is, whether they exaggerate the likelihood that majors lead to their …

Zoë Cullen · Shengwu Li · Ricardo Perez-Truglia

This paper studies how salary benchmarking tools — products that reveal aggregate market pay statistics for specific job titles — affect employee compensation. The research question is whether …

Christine Blandhol · John Bonney · Magne Mogstad · Alexander Torgovitsky

This paper asks: when does two-stage least squares (TSLS) with covariates actually estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE) — a non-negatively weighted average of causal effects for compliers …

Marcella Alsan · Yousra Neberai

This paper investigates a critical juncture in the development of national health insurance (NHI) in the United States: the post-World War II period when most peer nations moved to establish …

Greg Buchak · Gregor Matvos · Tomasz Piskorski · Amit Seru

This paper examines frictions in dealer intermediation in durable consumer goods markets, using iBuyers — technology-driven real estate companies such as Opendoor and Offerpad — as a lens. The central …