Online First

Marc K Chan · Cain Polidano · Ha Vu · Roger Wilkins · Andrew Carter · Hang To

Governments across ten-plus countries — including Australia, the United States, Germany, and New Zealand — have introduced matching schemes to encourage low- and middle-income earners to contribute …

Peyman Firouzi Naeim · David W Johnston · Maryam Naghsh-Nejad

This paper examines how workplace environments shape the economic consequences that fall on mothers — but not fathers — when a child is diagnosed with cancer. The motivation is a gap in the …

Kjetil Storesletten · Bo Zhao · Fabrizio Zilibotti

This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and theoretical.

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) shocks and demand …

Robert P Lieli · Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu

This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call "forecasting with feedback." …

Hyejoon Im · John McLaren

Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called "race to the bottom" (RTB) hypothesis. The question has high stakes: advocates …

Giorgio Chiovelli · Stelios Michalopoulos · Elias Papaioannou · Tanner Regan

Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and over time has …

Christian Bredemeier · Babette Jansen · Roland Winkler

This paper proposes a novel fiscal transmission channel through which government spending expansions reduce employer monopsony power in the labor market, generating larger fiscal multipliers and …

Vincenzo De Lipsis · Matteo Deleidi · Mariana Mazzucato · Paolo Agnolucci

This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational Expectations SVAR …

Christiaan van der Kwaak

When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by permanently expanding …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the state of the …

Frédéric Docquier · Stefano Iandolo · Hillel Rapoport · Riccardo Turati · Gonzague Vannoorenberghe

This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a unified empirical case …

Weizheng Lai · Lixin Colin Xu · Li Yang

Research question and motivation: How do civil wars affect long-term development, and through which institutional mechanisms? The paper studies the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864) in Qing China, one of …

Robert J Barro · V V Chari

Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, and the …

Alessandra Fenizia · Nicholas Li · Luca Citino

This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll tax reductions as a tool for stimulating labor demand among marginalized workers, using a natural experiment from Italy. The motivation is …

Julián Costas-Fernández · José-Alberto Guerra · Myra Mohnen

This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over place-based versus …

Sarah Sander

This paper estimates the causal effects of universal daycare access on mothers' labor force participation, full-time employment, hours worked, and earnings across 34 years after the birth of their …

Melanie Wallskog · Nicholas Bloom · Scott Ohlmacher · Cristina Tello-Trillo

This paper investigates how within-firm pay inequality relates to firm-level labor productivity, using a novel linkage of three confidential U.S. Census Bureau datasets covering millions of workers at …

Juan J Dolado · Etienne Lalé · Hélène Turon

Dolado, Lalé, and Turon build a structural equilibrium model of the U.K. low-wage labour market to evaluate zero-hours contracts (ZHCs), employment agreements under which firms are not required to …

Philippe Bacchetta · Elena Perazzi

As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts with bank deposits. Prior work spans a wide range of …

Chadwick Curtis · Julio Garín · Robert Lester

The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the elasticity of substitution across product varieties. …

Yang Han · Jun Ma

This paper proposes a shadow rate no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model (SDTSM) with drifting trends to estimate the long-run trend of the real interest rate using yield curve data from the U.S., …

Christiaan van der Kwaak · Sweder van Wijnbergen

Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic government bonds? This was a first-order policy …

Luís A.V. Catão · Jan Ditzen · Daniel Marcel te Kaat

The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks' non-core funding, and whether exchange rate flexibility (and macroprudential policy) can insulate …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers and investors.

Can Xu · Andreas Steiner

Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and why the type of employment — specifically public-sector employment — affects household saving rates in China. This matters because Chinese …

Gene Ambrocio

Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic policy, while a key transmission channel runs …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

This paper revisits the "reversal puzzle" — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian models the effect of forward …

Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo · Iván Payá

There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of it, yet evidence on the macroeconomic effectiveness …

Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez · João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso · Bernardus Ferdinandus Nazar Van Doornik

Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — especially Brazil — kept using them countercyclically …

Meltem Chadwick · Rennae Cherry · Jaqueson K. Galimberti

Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household Inflation Expectations survey decline to answer the …

Takao Asano · Yusuke Osaki

How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the "precautionary saving motive." The precautionary-saving literature has mostly studied one-dimensional …

Thorsten Beck · Peter Bednarek · Daniel te Kaat · Natalja von Westernhagen

The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system's foreign-asset exposure plays in transmitting exchange rate shocks. The motivation is concrete: …

Jay Hyun · Ziho Park · Vladimir Smirnyagin

This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as "Import Competition and …

Jasmina Hasanhodzic · Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, Krueger-Kubler, …

Agustín Bénétrix · Michael Curran

How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given rising reliance on international borrowing under …

Pasqualina Arca · Gianfranco Atzeni · Luca G. Deidda

Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing an "insurance …

Masami Imai · Michiru Sawada

Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends even a decade later? Imai and Sawada test one …

Volha Audzei · Ivan Sutóris

Audzei and Sutóris ask whether inflation-targeting monetary policy affects households' incentives to invest in energy conservation, and whether the standard central bank response to energy price …

Dominik Boddin · Daniel Marcel te Kaat · Chang Ma · Alessandro Rebucci

This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing toward second homes (as opposed to the …

Davide Viviano · Kaspar Wüthrich · Paul Niehaus

This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what …

Maryam Farboodi · Laura Veldkamp

The paper builds a tractable dynamic general-equilibrium model in which data is information that firms accumulate to forecast a moving target, is generated as a by-product of production, is tradeable …

Luca Benati

Building on the finding that the velocity of M1 is, to a close approximation, the permanent component of short-term nominal interest rates, this paper proposes estimating the natural rate of interest …

Allen N. Berger · Onesime Epouhe · Raluca A. Roman

This paper examines the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—two government bailout programs during the Global Financial Crisis and the …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Benjamin Born · Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Georgi Kocharkov · Ralph Luetticke · Michael Weber

The paper studies Germany's temporary 3 percentage-point VAT cut from July 1 to December 31, 2020 (standard rate 19%→16%, reduced rate 7%→5%), combining two causal identification strategies with …

Mathieu Pedemonte · Hiroshi Toma · Esteban Verdugo

Consumers' inflation expectations are heterogeneous across birth cohorts and history-dependent: using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), the paper documents that each cohort's …

Paulo Maio

This paper derives a three-factor consumption model that adds news about long-run consumption growth and news about long-run consumption variance to the baseline Consumption CAPM, and tests it on a …

David Rivero · Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal

This paper demonstrates that the canonical efficiency result of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) — that banks using maturity transformation can decentralize the first-best risk-sharing allocation — breaks …

Greta Meggiorini · Fabio Milani

The Behavioral New Keynesian model fixes the forward guidance puzzle by making agents myopic: "cognitive discounting", in Gabaix's (2014, 2016, 2020) formulation, shrinks expectations of distant …

Dmitry Taubinsky · Luigi Butera · Matteo Saccarola · Chen Lian

Linking the monthly Danish Consumer Expectations Survey to the Danish administrative registry, this paper shows that households' inflation forecasts move strongly and negatively with their own recent …

Kevin X.D. Huang · Qinglai Meng · Jianpo Xue

This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget immunizes the economy …

Pablo Ottonello

Physical capital, like labour, can be "unemployed" — sitting idle while its owner searches for a buyer or tenant — and this paper documents that in the United States such idle capital is large, …

Federico Apicella · Andrea Fabiani

Using the November 2017 EU Emissions Trading System reform, which pushed permit prices from about 5 to 20 euros per tonne, and loan-level data from the Italian Credit Registry, this paper asks whether …

Matti Liski · François Salanié

This paper develops a general model of experimentation under catastrophe risk in which the catastrophe is triggered when a stock variable exceeds an unknown threshold, but occurs only after a …

Hanfeng Chen · Maria Elena Filippin

The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …

Barbara Annicchiarico · Marco Carli · Francesca Diluiso

This paper embeds a carbon pricing sector into an extended DSGE model with a financial accelerator (E-DSGE) featuring heterogeneous firms, bank monitoring, and a borrowing-constraint amplification …

Abhay Aneja · Silvia Farina · Guo Xu

This paper asks whether exposure to greater female representation in the workplace can persistently reduce intergenerational gender gaps in labor market outcomes. The authors exploit the sudden, …

Alexander M Jakobsen

This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes' rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals systematically …

Marco Cosconati · Yi Xin · Fan Wu · Yizhou Jin

This paper studies imperfect competition in selection markets where competing firms have heterogeneous information about consumers — a layer of asymmetry distinct from the classic buyer-seller …

Walter Beckert · Howard Smith · Yuya Takahashi

How does individually negotiated pricing — where buyers make discrete choices among differentiated products and negotiate transaction-specific prices — affect market power and merger effects in …

Ilwoo Hwang · Kyungmin Kim · Raphael Boleslavsky

Hwang, Kim, and Boleslavsky study how firms in an oligopoly simultaneously choose prices and advertising strategies, where advertising is modeled as the choice of how much product information to …

Stig V. Møller · Thomas Q. Pedersen · Sigurd A. M. Steffensen · Martin M. Andreasen

Using the Livingston survey - the longest-running U.S. survey of professional economists, running twice a year since June 1952 - this paper shows that the expected excess stock return implied by these …

Myrto Kalouptsidi · Yuichi Kitamura · Lucas Lima · Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

Discrete choice data identify only differences in agents' utilities, not utility levels. In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models this means many policy-relevant counterfactuals — those requiring …

Stefania D'Amico · Iryna Kaminska

Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England's published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, QE4: …

Marek Ignaszak · Petr Sedláček

This paper asks whether firm-level customer acquisition — distinct from productivity differences — is a quantitatively important driver of aggregate economic growth, and whether ignoring it distorts …

Fabian Gogolin · Ivan Lim · Francesco Vallascas

This paper studies what happens to local banking markets when a small bank suffers a successful cyberattack, using a stacked difference-in-differences design on 16 cyber incidents at small U.S. banks …

Pol Campos-Mercade · Lorenz Goette · Thomas Graeber · Alexandre Kellogg · Charles Sprenger

This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …

Gu Jin · Tao Zhu

This paper applies a multiple-denomination commodity money model — building on Lee, Wallace, and Zhu (2005) — to coinage episodes in late medieval England, and derives two main findings. Shortages of …

Victor Chernozhukov · Kaspar Wüthrich · Yinchu Zhu

Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Chen Qiu · Jörg Stoye

This paper applies classical statistical decision theory (Wald 1950) to treatment choice problems where the data only partially identify payoff-relevant parameters. The policy maker chooses an action …

Adrien Auclert · Hannes Malmberg · Frédéric Martenet · Matthew Rognlie

A popular argument — the "asset market meltdown" of the 1990s, revived as the "great demographic reversal" — holds that once the old start running down their savings, aging will push interest rates …

Julien Bengui · Louphou Coulibaly

Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from low-inflation to high-inflation countries — …

Alec Brandon · Paul J Ferraro · John A List · Robert D Metcalfe · Michael K Price · Florian Rundhammer

This paper asks why the Home Energy Report (HER) — a widely deployed social-comparison nudge that shows households how their electricity consumption compares to their neighbors — produces behavioral …

Lee K. Davison · Carlos D. Ramirez

Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies the deposit-stabilizing …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Matthew Leisten · Nicholas Vreugdenhil

This paper evaluates the efficiency of linked environmental regulation, a targeting mechanism whereby inspectors who discover violations at one plant can increase enforcement pressure on other plants …

Mohammed Abdellaoui · Philippe Colo · Brian Hill

Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …

Thomas R Covert · Ryan Kellogg

Covert and Kellogg study policies that aim to "keep carbon in the ground" by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment, with the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) as their empirical application. DAPL …

Alessandra Peter

Most quantitative models of entrepreneurship assume that large firms are widely held and unconstrained; this paper documents that across the Eurozone they are frequently not, and asks what that …

Christoph Wegener · Robinson Kruse-Becher · Tony Klein

This paper tests whether the sharp rise in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowance prices from 2018 onward was driven by a rational bubble. The methodological contribution is to modify the Fama …

Yu-Ting Chiang · Piotr Zoch

This paper develops a sufficient statistics approach to measuring the aggregate demand effects of financial intermediation disturbances — shocks to the ability of financial intermediaries to supply …

Antoine Camous

The conventional division of labour holds that central banks should not target distribution and that fiscal policy, with its targeted instruments, should handle the redistributive consequences of …

Philippe Bacchetta · Kenza Benhima · Brendan Berthold

Most recent work on optimal foreign-exchange intervention prices the opportunity cost of reserves off either deviations from uncovered interest parity or deviations from covered interest parity, and …

Tan Gan · Nicholas Wu

This paper studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which an informed seller sells an experience good to a skeptical buyer who learns about the product through consumption. The central question …

Emanuele Ciola · Gabriele Tedeschi

This paper investigates how the endogenous structure of credit, deposit, and interbank networks shapes business cycle fluctuations and large financial crises in the U.S. economy.

Markus Hertrich · Daniel Nathan

This paper uses confidential daily data on the Bank of Israel's (BOI) foreign exchange purchase program in the USD/Israeli new shekel (ILS) spot market from 2013 to 2019 to study how FX interventions …

Nava Ashraf · Maxim Bakhtin · Erica Field · Alessandra Voena · Roberta Ziparo

This paper investigates whether information asymmetries within households about maternal health risk can explain persistent spousal disagreement over fertility in a high-fertility, …

Amory Gethin · Emmanuel Saez

Drawing on about 5,000 labor force and household surveys from 160 countries that cover 97% of the world's population, this paper builds a new global database of hours worked and shows that hours …

Emmanuel De Veirman · Jasper De Jong

De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The central questions are: (1) how do …

Kristian S. Blickle · Sarah N. Hamerling · Donald P. Morgan

Using FEMA disaster declarations matched to SHELDUS property-damage estimates and Call Report data for 1995–2018, this paper finds that weather disasters — even at their most severe — have had modest …

Rodney J. Garratt · Zhentong Lu · Phoebe Tian

This paper uses detailed transaction-level data from Canada's new high-value payment system (HVPS) to show how participants save liquidity by strategically exploiting the gridlock resolution …

Carlos Arteta · Steven Kamin · Franz U. Ruch

This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the interest rate increase. Specifically, it …

Wooyong Lee

This paper studies linear panel data models where regression coefficients are individual-specific (random coefficients) and regressors may be predetermined — that is, sequentially exogenous rather …

Aprajit Mahajan · Christian Michel · Alessandro Tarozzi

This paper addresses two related problems: the formal identification of time-inconsistent preferences in dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneous types, and the structural …

Aimé Bierdel · Andres Drenik · Juan Herreño · Pablo Ottonello

The paper develops a quantitative capital-accumulation model in which capital trades in illiquid markets with asymmetric information — sellers know the quality of their capital but buyers do not. It …

Sebastian Doerr · Thomas Drechsel · Donggyu Lee

The paper establishes a causal link from rising top income shares to reduced net job creation at small firms, working through a bank funding channel rooted in non-homothetic household portfolio …

Xincheng Qiu · Nicolò Russo

The paper provides the most comprehensive cross-country empirical characterisation of effective income tax functions to date, estimating the two-parameter log-linear tax function — pioneered by …

Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner

The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in which existing algorithms are shown to …

Joaquin Blaum · Federico Esposito · Sebastian Heise

Blaum, Esposito, and Heise study how supply chain risk — specifically, the risk of unexpected shipping delays caused by ocean weather conditions — affects U.S. manufacturing firms' import sourcing …

Paul H S Kim · Anran Li

Kim and Li study how publicly provided reinsurance affects insurer behavior and market outcomes in health insurance markets where firms face substantial cost uncertainty. The central question is …

Marianne Bertrand · Matilde Bombardini · Raymond Fisman · Francesco Trebbi · Eyub Yegen

This paper investigates whether institutional investors influence the political activities of their portfolio firms, using political action committee (PAC) giving as a window into the broader question …

Bruce E Hansen

Hansen (2025) makes a theoretical case for replacing the conventional cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) and heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors with a specific jackknife variance …

Guillermo A. Calvo · Andrés Velasco

Calvo and Velasco study an economy where both money and government bonds provide liquidity services, and they show that this shared role implies bond-financed fiscal expansions can be neutral or …

Saleem Bahaj · Ricardo Reis

This paper asks how a currency achieves international status — moving from zero to positive cross-border use — and whether deliberate central bank policy can accelerate that transition. The authors …

Javier Bianchi · Louphou Coulibaly

The paper develops a tractable open-economy New Keynesian model with nominal rigidities and an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) to study how monetary policy and macroprudential policy …

Ke-Li Xu

This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …

Alessia De Stefani · Rui C. Mano

This paper uses instrumental-variable local projections (IV-LP) on an unbalanced panel of up to 35 countries over approximately two decades to establish two interconnected findings about fixed-rate …

Maximilian Grimm · Òscar Jordà · Moritz Schularick · Alan M. Taylor

This paper provides the first long-run causal evidence that a persistently loose stance of monetary policy — defined as extended periods of low interest rates relative to the neutral rate — …

Renjie Bao · Jan De Loecker · Jan Eeckhout

This paper asks whether managers are paid for market power. Bao, De Loecker, and Eeckhout build a general equilibrium model in which firms compete oligopolistically in goods markets (following Atkeson …

Kozo Ueda

This paper asks whether heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) stems from temporary circumstances (e.g., transient wealth shocks that tighten liquidity) or persistent personal …

Matthew Elliott · Andrea Galeotti · Andrew Koh · Wenhao Li

This paper asks what market outcomes an information designer — modeled as an internet platform that knows consumers' preferences — can achieve by choosing what information to disclose to competing …

Niko Jaakkola · Florian Wagener

This paper by Jaakkola and Wagener addresses a long-standing open problem in the theory of differential games: how to make Markov-perfect equilibria (MPE) well-defined when best-response policy …

Guido Menzio

Across macroeconomics, market power is almost always modelled with the Dixit–Stiglitz (1977) monopolistic-competition framework, in which a seller's markup is pinned down by how substitutable buyers …

Andreas Fagereng · Luigi Guiso · Luigi Pistaferri

Using Norwegian administrative registries that record wealth and capital income for the whole population, and for each spouse before they marry, this paper documents that people sort at marriage not …

Peter Andre · Philipp Schirmer · Johannes Wohlfart

Using tailored surveys of more than 11,000 US and German households, retail investors, financial professionals, and academic experts, the paper documents the "mental models" people use when reasoning …

Kelli Marquardt

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of ADHD diagnosis to decompose the mechanisms driving the observed 2.3:1 male-to-female diagnostic difference in the United States. The research …

Julio L. Ortiz

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a "misspecified expectations" …

Maximilian Schröder

This paper introduces a Bayesian Gaussian mixture density regression framework that estimates the complete forecast distribution of inflation — not just selected quantiles — and decomposes the entire …

Ricardo Lagos

The cashless-limiting result in Woodford (1998) — that as money velocity diverges the allocation of a monetary economy converges to that of the corresponding economy without money — is the theoretical …

Frédéric Boissay · Fabrice Collard · Jordi Galí · Cristina Manea

This paper asks whether a central bank should deviate from strict inflation targeting (SIT) to promote financial stability, studying the question in a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with …

Michael T. Kiley

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under discretion when the loss function is asymmetric — placing greater weight on employment shortfalls than on equivalently sized employment strength. The …

Sebastian Schmidt

The paper builds a discrete-time DSGE model with Calvo sticky prices in which the public sector has two feedback rules that can hit corners, generating endogenous shifts between an "orthodox" regime …

Fiorella De Fiore · Marie Hoerova · Ciaran Rogers · Harald Uhlig

The paper studies the euro area interbank money markets during the global financial crisis (2007–09) and sovereign debt crisis (2010–15), documenting four empirical regularities and building a …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Christian Bayer · Heiko Stüber · Felix Wellschmied

When employers face a trade-off between growing large and paying low wages — that is, when they have monopsony power — some productive employers will decide to acquire fewer customers, forgo sales, …

Peter Andre · Ingar Haaland · Christopher Roth · Mirko Wiederholt · Johannes Wohlfart

This paper investigates two related empirical questions in the context of the historic surge in US inflation in late 2021 and 2022: (1) What narratives—causal stories—do people invoke to explain why …

Michael P Leung · Hyungsik Roger Moon

This paper proves a central limit theorem (CLT) for network formation models with strategic interactions and homophilous agents, addressing a foundational inferential gap in the econometrics of large …

Daron Acemoglu · Daniel Huttenlocher · Asuman Ozdaglar · James Siderius

Acemoglu, Huttenlocher, Ozdaglar, and Siderius develop a two-sided platform model to study the welfare consequences of digital advertising as an online business model. The platform intermediates …

Volker Britz · Hans Gersbach

This paper revisits the open rule legislative bargaining model of Baron and Ferejohn (1989) — the dominant workhorse model in political economy for analyzing how legislatures divide a surplus — and …

Timothy Christensen · Hyungsik Roger Moon · Frank Schorfheide

This paper derives asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when the payoffs associated with some choices are only partially identified. The research question is: …

Karun Adusumilli

This paper addresses a practical gap in the inference literature for sequential and adaptive experiments: while the design of such experiments has been studied extensively, there is little theory …

Klaus M Schmidt · Jonas von Wangenheim

Schmidt and von Wangenheim develop a dynamic model of organizational change in which workers have reference-dependent preferences — specifically loss aversion and social comparisons — to explain …

Jens H. E. Christensen · Simon T. Hetland

The paper introduces the concept of "passive quantitative easing" (passive QE): a deliberate reduction in government debt issuance that lowers anticipated future bond supply and reduces long-term …

Yuteng Cheng · Ryuichiro Izumi

This paper examines how the degree of user anonymity built into a central bank digital currency (CBDC) affects bank lending decisions and what this implies for the optimal design of CBDC anonymity. …

Michela Maria Tincani

This paper investigates the mechanisms behind peer effects in the classroom using exogenous variation in study disruptions generated by the 2010 Maule mega-earthquake in Chile (magnitude 8.8, the …

Nail Kashaev · Natalia Lazzati · Ruli Xiao

This paper develops a general nonparametric model of discrete choice in which peers influence agents through two distinct channels: (1) the set of alternatives an agent considers (consideration set …

Beat Hintermann · Beaumont Schoeman · Joseph Molloy · Thomas Götschi · Alberto Castro · Christopher Tchervenkov · Uros Tomic · Kay W Axhausen

This paper reports on the MOBIS experiment, a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) implementing a multi-modal Pigovian transport pricing scheme in urban areas of German- and French-speaking …

Richard Dennis · Tatiana Kirsanova

Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether the inability to commit (discretion …

Thomas Drechsel

This paper combines a hand-collected archival data set of over 800 personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Federal Reserve officials from 1933 to 2016 with a narrative structural VAR to …

Kazuo Mino · Hiroaki Sasaki

This paper asks how population aging changes the distribution of income and wealth, using a continuous-time overlapping-generations model in which persistent growth in per capita income is sustained …

Lassi Ahlvik · Jørgen Juel Andersen · Jonas Hveding Hamang · Torfinn Harding

This paper asks three questions about supply-side climate policies in the oil market: how do oil companies respond to production-based taxes; what are the aggregate effects of such taxes on global CO2 …

Wenxin Du · Kristin Forbes · Matthew Luzzetti

Drawing on the recent experience of seven advanced-economy central banks, this paper offers the first cross-country assessment of quantitative tightening (QT) — the unwinding of bond holdings …

Ian Schofield Ball · Deniz Kattwinkel

Ball and Kattwinkel study quota mechanisms — linking mechanisms that impose aggregate constraints on agents' reports across multiple decision problems — and provide the first theoretical analysis …

Cody Tuttle

This paper studies racial disparities in federal criminal sentencing by analyzing abnormal bunching in the distribution of crack-cocaine amounts recorded at sentencing. The identifying variation comes …

Markus Haavio · Joni Heikkinen · Pirkka Jalasjoki · Juha Kilponen · Maritta Paloviita · Ilona Vänni

This paper estimates the European Central Bank's loss function directly rather than inferring it from a reaction function, using the tone of the Governing Council's press conference introductory …

Hubert János Kiss · Alfonso Rosa García · Lukas Voellmy

This paper uses laboratory experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of two liquidity management tools — redemption fees and redemption gates — in reducing runs on money market funds (MMFs), …

Ojasvita Bahl · Chetan Ghate · Debdulal Mallick

Governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) routinely intervene in agricultural markets — procuring grain and redistributing it to poor households — in response to food price …

José E. Gutiérrez

This paper provides a contract-theoretic rationale for the special liquidity regulation of bank credit lines—a form of lending that has received little attention in the regulatory literature despite …

Johnny Tang

This paper quantitatively assesses the consequences of jurisdictional competition in the US life insurance industry, an $8 trillion market. The central question is whether competition between state …

Boaz Abramson · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abramson and Van Nieuwerburgh study Rent Guarantee Insurance (RGI), a product in which an insurer pays the landlord on behalf of a tenant who defaults on rent due to a negative income or health …

Anna Grodecka-Messi · Jieying Li · Xin Zhang

This paper investigates how rising house prices affect the composition of household debt portfolios in Sweden during 2010–2014. Specifically, the authors ask whether homeowners who experience housing …

Aram Grigoryan

Grigoryan (2021) develops a unified general-equilibrium framework that jointly models school assignment mechanisms and the housing market to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of …

François Le Grand · Alaïs Martin-Baillon · Xavier Ragot

Should monetary policy deviate from price stability to address redistributive concerns in an economy with heterogeneous agents? The paper jointly solves for optimal monetary and fiscal policy under …

Duncan Webb

This paper examines how two types of communication about a minority group affect discriminatory behavior: (i) horizontal communication between majority-group members, and (ii) top-down communication …

Oren Danieli

This paper proposes a model of skill-replacing routine-biased technological change (SR-RBTC) to explain patterns in U.S. bottom-half wage inequality that standard RBTC models cannot account for.

Matthew J Delventhal · Andrii Parkhomenko

Delventhal and Parkhomenko build a quantitative spatial model of the United States to study how the rise of telecommuting reshapes the distribution of residents, jobs, and housing costs across and …

Nicola Mastrorocco · Edoardo Teso

Mastrorocco and Teso study how the internal organization of a state evolves during national development, framing state capacity as an organizational — specifically a principal-agent — problem. Using a …

Snehal Banerjee · Jesse Davis · Naveen Gondhi

Survey forecasts depart from rational expectations in ways that look contradictory: consensus forecasts under-react to news, individual forecasts of macroeconomic variables tend to over-react, and …

Paul Gaggl · Aspen Gorry · Christian vom Lehn

Gaggl, Gorry, and vom Lehn document that services sectors produce a rising share of output in both of the US production networks they study — the input-output network for intermediate inputs and the …

Andrew Caplin · Victoria Gregory · Eungik Lee · Søren Leth-Petersen · Johan Sæverud

The paper introduces a survey instrument — fielded in the Copenhagen Life Panel in January 2021 to about 10,900 employed Danes aged 20-65 — that measures how much earnings risk workers subjectively …

Masazumi Hattori · Tomohide Mineyama · Jouchi Nakajima

The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal funds rate (FFR) and cannot assess …

Seda Basihos

Since the mid-1990s computing revolution, advanced economies have shown a cluster of regularities — a decade-long productivity boom followed by a slowdown below trend, a sharply declining labour …

Michela Giorcelli · Bo Li

This paper estimates the causal effect of technology and knowledge transfers on early industrial development using the Sino-Soviet Alliance of the 1950s as a natural experiment. Between 1950 and 1957, …

Soonwoo Kwon · Jonathan Roth

Kwon and Roth develop econometric tests for the "sharp null of full mediation": the hypothesis that a treatment D affects an outcome Y only through a specified mechanism (or set of mechanisms) M, with …

Bryony Reich

This paper examines how the architecture of social networks shapes the success or failure of technology diffusion when adoption decisions exhibit strategic complementarities. The research question is: …

George S. Tavlas

This paper sets Milton Friedman's 1953 essay "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" side by side with Harry Johnson's near-identically titled 1969 essay, argument by argument, and concludes that …

Samuel Bazzi · Andreas Ferrara · Martin Fiszbein · Thomas Pearson · Patrick A Testa

This paper investigates how white migration out of the postbellum South diffused Confederate culture and entrenched racial norms across the United States during a critical juncture of westward …

Bruno Cavani · Samer F. Shousha

Textbook Mundell–Fleming logic says a weaker local currency should be expansionary through net exports, yet in emerging market economies (EMEs) a stronger US dollar has been consistently associated …

Greg Howard · Hansen Shao

Howard and Shao document a new empirical regularity in U.S. internal migration: the t-year interstate migration rate — defined as the share of people living in a different state than they did t years …

Zihao Li · Jonathan Libgober

This paper develops a dynamic principal-agent model in which a principal seeks to select exactly one project from a stream of possibilities emerging over time, while a biased agent (who wants any …

Ulrika Ahrsjö · Costas Meghir · Mårten Palme · Marieke Schnabel

This paper studies the intergenerational effects of education policy on crime, asking whether a compulsory schooling reform that reduced crime among those directly exposed also reduced crime among …

Kim Ceulemans · Sarfraz Khan · John K. Wald

Two literatures predict opposite things about what happens to a country's pollution when it opens its equity market to foreign investors. Foreign institutional investors have been shown to push firms …

Ivan Lim · Jens Hagendorff · Seth Armitage

Using closures of U.S. bank regulatory offices between 2002 and 2013 as difference-in-differences shocks to the physical proximity between supervisors and the community banks they oversee, the paper …

David A. Green · Ben M. Sand · Iain G. Snoddy · Jeanne Tschopp

This paper estimates the impact of unions on nonunion wage setting in the United States over the period 1980–2010, distinguishing two channels through which unions affect nonunion wages: (1) a …

Marianna Blix Grimaldi · Alberto Crosta · Dong Zhang

This paper uses transaction-level bond data under MiFID I and II to measure five dimensions of Swedish government bond market liquidity during the Riksbank's QE program (2015–2020) and identifies two …

Erik G. Hurst · Patrick Kehoe · Elena Pastorino · Thomas Winberry

This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model with rich worker heterogeneity, firm monopsony power and putty-clay adjustment frictions in order to trace the time path of the effects of the federal …

Felipe Saffie · Liliana Varela · Kei-Mu Yi

Using the 2001 Hungarian capital account liberalization as a quasi-natural experiment and census-level firm data covering the entire economy (1992–2008), the paper identifies two channels through …

Vadym Lepetyuk · Lilia Maliar · Serguei Maliar · John B. Taylor

When a central bank announces a policy it will not implement for some time, households and firms respond straight away. This paper measures how much of a policy's effect arrives in that anticipation …

Veasna Kheng · Lei Pan · Xiaodong Fan

This paper builds and estimates a small open economy real-business-cycle (SOE-RBC) model for Cambodia augmented with two non-standard external-sector shocks — net unilateral transfers (remittances and …

Mamoon Kader · Hashmat Khan · Minjoon Lee · Raúl Razo-García

This paper uses an open-economy heterogeneous-household model with incomplete markets to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 — which …

David Bügel · Albert Hidalgo · Ralph Luetticke

Asking whether unconventional monetary policy works differently from an interest-rate cut has been hard to answer because the two kinds of policy have been measured with different tools, so any …

Gordon B. Dahl · Matthew M. Knepper

Seven U.S. states permanently cut unemployment insurance (UI) benefits by 30–64 percent between 2011 and 2014, providing the study's quasi-experimental variation.

Yuliyan Mitkov · Ulrich Schüwer

This paper documents that U.S. metropolitan statistical areas with higher income inequality have a larger share of failed banks, higher average bank default probabilities, and greater dispersion of …

Christian Hellwig · Nicolas Werquin

Two of the most influential results in optimal tax theory — Saez's (2001) formula for the top income tax rate and Atkinson and Stiglitz's (1976) case for not taxing savings — are usually invoked …

Sacha Dray · Camille Landais · Stefanie Stantcheva

Wealth data for the nineteenth-century United States barely exist, and this paper builds them from an unusual source: the paper trail of the General Property Tax, a levy that — unlike land taxes …

John J Conlon · Dev Patel

Conlon and Patel test whether students stereotype the link between college majors and occupations — that is, whether they exaggerate the likelihood that majors lead to their "representative" careers …

Christine Blandhol · John Bonney · Magne Mogstad · Alexander Torgovitsky

This paper asks: when does two-stage least squares (TSLS) with covariates actually estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE) — a non-negatively weighted average of causal effects for compliers …

Samuel Dodini · Anna Stansbury · Alexander Willén

This paper studies who bears the cost when unions raise worker wages — consumers, shareholders, other workers, or nobody, if productivity offsets the cost — using a legislative change in Norway that …

Greg Buchak · Gregor Matvos · Tomasz Piskorski · Amit Seru

This paper examines frictions in dealer intermediation in durable consumer goods markets, using iBuyers — technology-driven real estate companies such as Opendoor and Offerpad — as a lens. The central …