Forthcoming

Alvaro Garcia-Marin · Santiago Justel · Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

This paper provides a theory and evidence for why firms with higher markups extend more trade credit, focusing on a financing cost channel that is distinct from existing competition-based …

Damien Capelle · Yang Liu

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …

Robert W. Hahn · Nathaniel Hendren · Robert D. Metcalfe · Ben Sprung-Keyser

This paper extends and applies the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) framework to evaluate the welfare consequences of 96 climate-related tax and spending policies in the United States. The MVPF …

Karl M. Aspelund · Anna Russo

This paper investigates the problem of additionality — the likelihood that a conservation action is marginal to (i.e., caused by) an incentive — in the United States Department of Agriculture’s …

Ariel T Burstein · Vasco M Carvalho · Basile Grassi

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper asks how firm-level, sector-level, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation, and whether a single structural model can …

Michael Ehrmann · Phillipp Gnan · Kilian Rieder

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three …

Felipe Gonçalves · Elisa Jácome · Emily Weisburst

This paper studies how immigration enforcement affects public safety, asking two questions: (1) what is the effect of increased enforcement on criminal victimization, and (2) how does increased …

Kristine W. Hankins · Morteza Momeni · David Sovich

Overview Research Question. Do import tariffs affect consumer credit terms, and does focusing solely on goods prices understate tariff pass-through to consumers? The paper also asks whether vertical …

Emil Holst Partsch · Ivan Petrella · Emiliano Santoro

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two …

Andreas Haupt · Zoë Hitzig

Haupt and Hitzig introduce a framework for comparing the privacy properties of different mechanism protocols. The core research question is: when a designer commits to implementing a social choice …

Amanda Dahlstrand

This paper asks whether digital platforms can improve healthcare outcomes by enabling needs-based matching between patients and physicians unconstrained by geography. Amanda Dahlstrand studies digital …

Ingrid Huitfeldt · Victoria Marone · Daniel Waldinger

This paper studies the design of dynamic reassignment mechanisms—centralized systems that must not only provide good initial matches but also accommodate changes in agents’ preferences over …

Cynthia L Doniger

Overview Research question. This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers’ educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare …

Gautam Gowrisankaran · Ashley Langer · Mar Reguant

This paper asks how rate-of-return (RoR) regulation in U.S. electricity markets affects the speed and efficiency of energy transitions, specifically the transition from coal to combined-cycle natural …

Brent Bundick · Isabel Cairó · Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in …

Eduardo Azevedo · Jonathan Beauchamp · Richard Karlsson Linnér

This paper asks how much adverse selection would arise in critical illness insurance (CII) markets if consumers can observe polygenic indexes (PGIs) — genetic risk scores derived from millions of …

N. Meltem Daysal · Hui Ding · Maya Rossin-Slater · Hannes Schwandt

This paper studies the short- and long-term consequences of intra-household respiratory disease transmission from older to younger siblings in Danish families. The central research questions are: (1) …

EMMANUEL DE VEIRMAN · JASPER DE JONG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The …

Carlos Arteta · Steven Kamin · Franz U. Ruch

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the …

Jorge García-Hombrados · Marcel Jansen · Angel Martínez · Berkay Özcan · Pedro Rey-Biel · Antonio Roldán-Monés

This paper investigates how the ideological alignment between knowledge-disseminating institutions and policymakers affects the adoption of evidence-based policies. The core research question is …

Esther Duflo · Pascaline Dupas · Elizabeth Spelke · Mark Walsh

This paper provides experimental evidence on the intergenerational impacts of secondary education subsidies in a low-income context, leveraging a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in rural …

Serdar Birinci · Fatih Karahan · Yusuf Mercan · Kurt See

Overview Research question. The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly …

Laurent Gobillon · Thierry Magnac · Sebastien Roux

Layer 1 – Overview Research Question This paper asks how wage inequalities build up over the life cycle when individual wage trajectories are plagued by interruptions in private-sector …

Jonathan Créchet · Etienne Lalé · Linas Tarasonis

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks: what are the sources of cross-country differences in aggregate employment across European economies, and which types of worker flows — between …

Daniel Björkegren · Joshua E. Blumenstock · Samsun Knight

This paper addresses the problem of algorithmic manipulation: when consequential decisions are encoded in machine learning algorithms, individuals strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired …

Alberto Bisin · Giulia Tura

Bisin and Tura study the cultural integration of immigrants in Italy by estimating a structural model of marital matching embedded with intra-household decisions — fertility, socialization of …

Hadi Elzayn · Evelyn Smith · Thomas Hertz · Cameron Guage · Arun Ramesh · Robin Fisher · Daniel E Ho · Jacob Goldin

Overview Research Question. Do Black taxpayers face higher IRS audit rates than non-Black taxpayers, despite race-blind audit selection? And if so, why — and what would mitigation look like? Data and …

Vivek Bhattacharya · Gastón Illanes · David Stillerman

This paper by Bhattacharya, Illanes, and Stillerman makes two contributions to the debate over US antitrust enforcement stringency. First, it documents the price, quantity, and assortment effects of a …

Gabriel Kreindler · Arya Gaduh · Tilman Graff · Rema Hanna · Benjamin A. Olken

This paper studies how commuter preferences over wait times, travel times, and transfers should shape the design of urban bus networks, using the world’s largest Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system — …

RICHARD DENNIS · TATIANA KIRSANOVA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether …

Aaron Chalfin · Felipe Goncalves

This paper studies how public sector workers balance professional motivations against private economic concerns, using arrest decisions by Dallas Police Department (DPD) officers as the empirical …

Amir Kermani · Francis Wong

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper estimates the racial/ethnic gap in realized housing returns using administrative data on individual housing transactions, and investigates the …

Haruki Kono · Kota Saito · Alec Sandroni

This paper addresses a foundational gap in the random utility model (RUM) literature: existing axiomatizations by Falmagne (1978) and McFadden and Richter (1990) assume that whenever a menu is …

Manasvini Singh · Atheendar Venkataramani

Singh and Venkataramani ask whether resource scarcity causes discriminatory rationing of health care by patient race, with patient death as the starkest possible outcome of biased allocation …

Ethan Ligon

This paper identifies and corrects a fundamental flaw in the standard methodology for testing efficient risk-sharing when shocks are covariate (affecting common prices rather than only individual …

Clement Imbert · Gabriel Ulyssea

Overview Research Question. Does rural-urban migration increase or decrease urban informality, and through what mechanisms — and does the answer depend on the time horizon? Setting and Data. The paper …

Dirk Bergemann · Tibor Heumann · Michael C. Wang

Bergemann, Heumann, and Wang study consumer surplus when a monopolist simultaneously engages in second-degree price discrimination (screening consumers within each market segment through …

Giulia Brancaccio · Karam Kang

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates whether intermediaries in the U.S. municipal bond market strategically exploit product design to increase search frictions and, through …

James Bullard · Alex Grimaud · Isabelle Salle · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Why did the 2021–2023 US inflation surge end in a soft landing — disinflation without a major recession — while the Volcker disinflation of 1979–1987 required …

Ingrid Haegele

This paper provides the first empirical evidence of talent hoarding in organizations — the practice whereby managers deliberately suppress workers’ internal mobility to retain productive team …

Michael Wiebe

This paper is a comment on Moretti (2021b), which studied agglomeration effects for innovation by testing whether the size of technology clusters causes patenting. The original paper (M21) used US …

Matthew A. Masten · Alexandre Poirier

Masten and Poirier demonstrate a previously unrecognized asymmetry in the coefficient stability literature: depending on how omitted variable bias is measured, it can be substantially easier for …

Raymond Kluender · Neale Mahoney · Francis Wong · Wesley Yin

Layer 1: Overview Research Question This paper asks whether relieving downstream medical debt — debt that has been sold to third-party debt collectors — causes improvements in financial outcomes, …

Luigi Iovino · Thorsten Martin · Julien Sauvagnat

This paper documents and quantifies an “environmental bias” embedded in the U.S. corporate income tax code: CO2-intensive (“dirty”) firms systematically face lower effective …

Andrew Garin · Jonathan Rothbaum

Overview Research Question. Does government-led construction of large manufacturing plants in previously under-industrialized regions generate long-run improvements in regional economic development …

David Chan · Yiqun Chen

This paper studies the productivity of nurse practitioners (NPs) versus physicians performing overlapping tasks in Veterans Health Administration (VHA) emergency departments (EDs), exploiting a …

Paul Bouscasse · Emi Nakamura · Jón Steinsson

Overview Research Question. When did sustained productivity growth begin in England? This paper constructs new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870, with the goal of …