Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis — "periods of stability lead to periods of instability" — can arise endogenously from a tractable …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic models. The …
Governments across ten-plus countries — including Australia, the United States, Germany, and New Zealand — have introduced matching schemes to encourage low- and middle-income earners to contribute …
PublishedJournal of Economic GrowthOnline 20 Apr 2026Published Sep 2026
This paper asks how individual-level exposure to internal armed conflict shapes social capital, specifically trust in institutions and trust in people. The question matters because trust is a core …
This paper examines how workplace environments shape the economic consequences that fall on mothers — but not fathers — when a child is diagnosed with cancer. The motivation is a gap in the …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
This paper resolves a long-standing theoretical impasse in labor search models: how to model wage bargaining when workers search on the job (OJS) and the quit rate depends on the wage. Shimer (2006) …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 20 Jan 2026
This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and theoretical.
The paper asks why large gross financial flows exist between similarly rich countries (especially the U.S. and Europe), why financial integration raises rather than lowers asset price volatility, and …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 11 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper quantifies the sources and distributional consequences of unexpected carbon price changes for European households using a money-metric welfare framework. The motivation is stark: while …
This paper investigates why non-U.S. central banks accumulate large holdings of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, focusing on a previously under-emphasized motive: the currency mismatch of …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 10 Apr 2026Published Jul 2026
Research question and motivation: Why did the First Industrial Revolution (IR) spread to Meiji Japan—and to essentially no other non-Western country—during the first wave of globalization? The paper …
This paper estimates the firm- and worker-level effects of the corporate income tax cuts in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — the largest corporate tax cut in U.S. history — to inform the …
Research question and motivation. On-the-job search models typically organize firms along a "job ladder" — a common ranking by workers of available jobs — but they disagree on whether the rung is best …
This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and their quality as …
This paper proposes a text-based measure of monetary policy stance by modelling FOMC post-meeting statements as convex combinations of the staff-drafted dovish ("alternative A") and hawkish …
The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely cited (Elmendorf-Mankiw, Krugman) as evidence that an …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 20 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and input-intensive farming. This …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 27 Jan 2026
Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) shocks and demand …
This paper asks how institutional distortions to factor markets affect not only the static allocation of inputs across farms but also the dynamic choices — crop selection and productivity-enhancing …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 9 Jan 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper investigates how the EU's Fit-for-55 climate package will affect aggregate output and distribute its costs across the income distribution. The question matters because energy is a necessity …
This paper provides a theory and evidence for why firms with higher markups extend more trade credit, focusing on a financing cost channel that is distinct from existing competition-based …
This paper investigates how the illiquidity of entrepreneurial capital shapes investment dynamics and wealth inequality. The central question is whether entrepreneurship drives wealth heterogeneity or …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Jan 2026
US cohorts of establishments born in recessions persistently employ fewer workers at entry and over their life cycle, yet are on average more productive than expansionary cohorts; the number of …
This paper asks whether public subsidies to green-technology producers, financed by a carbon tax, can materially reduce the macroeconomic cost of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by 2060. The …
This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what this implies for …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Jan 2026
Firms are larger and grow faster over the life cycle in high-income countries, while labor markets in poorer countries are less competitive (employers hold more wage-setting power). The paper asks how …
Ferrari and Queirós ask why US recoveries have become progressively slower and argue that rising firm heterogeneity and market power — well-documented long-run trends — can substantially increase the …
This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call "forecasting with feedback." …
This paper asks how the well-documented slowdown in labor-force growth affects aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, a question that prior work on business dynamism had left unanswered. …
How do international trade shocks propagate through spatially connected regional labor markets, and how large are the general equilibrium effects that standard shift-share specifications miss? Adão, …
Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called "race to the bottom" (RTB) hypothesis. The question has high stakes: advocates …
The paper investigates why the U.S. health-services sector has simultaneously experienced a tripling of relative prices since 1948 and a rise in the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) share from …
Moreau and Panon ask how much cartels cost the aggregate economy — in terms of both total factor productivity and welfare — and find the losses are considerably larger than the received wisdom from …
To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate "shocks" — changes in interest rates that are not systematic responses to economic conditions. The paper proposes a new …
Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role in New Keynesian …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 12 Jan 2026
Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and over time has …
This paper documents and explains a previously unreported reversal in U.S. manufacturing inventory trends: after a 25-year secular decline, inventories-to-sales ratios have been rising steadily since …
Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, stable, …
This paper asks whether uncertainty in the interbank market — distinct from general macroeconomic uncertainty — raises the cost of bank credit to firms, and whether bank-specific characteristics …
This paper addresses two connected questions: why do Black workers face persistently higher and more volatile unemployment than white workers, and can the Federal Reserve's August 2020 shift from a …
The paper asks why the U.S. labor share has declined over the postwar period, and whether rising markups or capital deepening (automation, falling capital prices) is the primary driver. The authors …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 11 Feb 2026
This paper proposes a novel fiscal transmission channel through which government spending expansions reduce employer monopsony power in the labor market, generating larger fiscal multipliers and …
This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies (EMEs) and (ii) the …
This paper asks whether the location of economic activity adapts to changes in the location of trading opportunities, or whether historical patterns of trade permanently fix where cities emerge and …
This paper asks how bank holdings of long-term government securities interact with interest-rate-driven monetary tightening to amplify macroeconomic downturns and generate banking crises. The …
This paper asks whether publicly funded ("free") secondary schooling in developing countries raises GDP per capita. The question is policy-relevant because many low-income countries — including Ghana, …
This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational Expectations SVAR …
PublishedJournal of Economic GrowthOnline 25 Apr 2026Published Sep 2026
Karlinsky and Shayo ask which governments manipulate public information, in which direction, and by how much — questions that are normally intractable because the ground truth is unobservable. The …
The paper asks why market liquidity sometimes behaves in a stabilizing way (an illiquidity hike curbs liquidity demand and attracts liquidity supply) but on other occasions "evaporates when it is most …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
Guner, Rauh, and Ventura document the scope, generosity, distributional impact, and time evolution of means-tested transfers to working-age US households, and provide parametric estimates of transfer …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
This paper asks why medical innovation can widen health disparities even when it unambiguously improves health for everyone who takes it. The authors argue that the standard access-versus-preferences …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 30 May 2026
When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by permanently expanding …
Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The standard quantitative macro models used to interpret …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of the U.S. housing finance system that jointly determines mortgage credit and mortgage-backed security (MBS) issuance, with the aim of …
Chen, Hsieh, and Song study the use of unofficial non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by China during the U.S.-China trade war of 2018–2019 and in the first year of the Phase 1 purchase agreement (2020). The …
This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the state of the …
Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without targeting inflation in …
This paper asks how conventional and informational monetary policy shocks affect the cross-sectional distributions of labor earnings, consumption, and financial income in the United States. The …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Apr 2026
This paper estimates the elasticities of substitution between labor, information and communication technology (ICT) and intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital using a nested …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of endogenous growth driven by cumulative innovation, and uses it to characterize optimal patent policy — both for patent breadth (via a …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 15 Jan 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper asks whether inequality and redistributive taxation should make climate policy more or less ambitious, and how optimal carbon taxes interact with optimal income taxes when households differ …
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jul 2026
Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem members) already …
The paper asks how much economic progress looks different when one applies a total utilitarian welfare criterion — counting every person's flow utility — rather than the standard per-capita …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 16 Feb 2026
This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a unified empirical case …
This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: policymakers worry that …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Apr 2026
This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial shocks (following …
Developing and emerging economies exhibit procyclical fiscal policy on both the spending and taxation sides: government expenditures expand in booms and contract in recessions, and tax rates fall in …
Online FirstJournal of Economic GrowthOnline 14 Jan 2026
Research question and motivation: How do civil wars affect long-term development, and through which institutional mechanisms? The paper studies the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864) in Qing China, one of …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg ask why remote work surged abruptly and permanently after COVID-19 despite information-technology advances raising it only marginally between 1980 and 2019, why the …
This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation — and asks how …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Apr 2026
A large empirical literature uses micro data to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of labor supply, a parameter crucial for understanding business-cycle fluctuations in hours …
This paper asks whether worker self-selection, rather than slow technological progress, can explain the low measured labor productivity growth in the U.S. service sector — a phenomenon known as …
Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips self-fulfilling …
This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change (DTC) — is hard to …
This paper studies entrepreneurship and new firm creation in China through the lens of serial entrepreneurs (SEs) — individuals who establish more than one firm — contrasting them with non-serial …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Jan 2026
U.S. outstanding student debt rose roughly 20-fold, from about $50 billion in 1985 to nearly $1 trillion in 2014 (about 7% of GDP), making it the second-largest form of household debt after mortgages.
Sovereign debt restructuring is a central tool for countries in debt distress, yet surprisingly little evidence exists on whether it actually reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio — the metric used in …
Firms that invest heavily in intangible assets — patents, R&D, software — face a structural financing disadvantage: intangibles offer limited collateral value to banks, so intangible-intensive firms …
This paper investigates how the level and progressivity of personal income taxes shape entrepreneurial activity in the United States, contributing empirical evidence, theoretical intuition, and a …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 25 May 2026
Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, and the …
Proposals to tax top wealth (e.g., Saez and Zucman, 2019) face a recurring objection in public debate: that the wealthy will emigrate en masse and, because many are entrepreneurs, their departure will …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 23 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
Research question and motivation: How sophisticated are the technologies establishments actually use, and how close are they to the world frontier? Traditional measures (since Ryan-Gross 1943 and …
This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but poorly understood …
This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll tax reductions as a tool for stimulating labor demand among marginalized workers, using a natural experiment from Italy. The motivation is …
Research question and motivation. A large literature argues that credit constraints are the dominant financial friction holding private businesses below their optimal scale, so that easing credit …
Many countries, primarily in Europe, apply dismissal protections to permanent employment contracts but not to temporary ones, creating a two-tiered labor market in which younger and less educated …
Women accounted for only 3% of U.S. inventors in 1976 and still just 14% in 2023, a pace of convergence far slower than in law (3% to 49%) or medicine (6% to 46%) over the same period. Under the …
PublishedJournal of Economic GrowthOnline 24 Mar 2026Published Sep 2026
This paper asks a foundational question: can the economy-wide degree of automation be measured coherently from standard macroeconomic data, without relying on technology-specific proxies such as robot …
Research question and motivation. This paper asks how monetary policy transmits to corporate investment through bank credit, and specifically whether the relevant credit margin is the origination of …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 10 Jan 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper asks whether carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes economic costs that are unequally distributed across European regions, and whether those economic costs …
PublishedThe Economic JournalOnline 24 Feb 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper asks who wins and loses from climate policies — carbon taxes, renewable subsidies, and carbon tariffs — across 193 heterogeneous countries, and by how much. The motivation is that the …
This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over place-based versus …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but it is far less clear what makes firms uncertain in …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Apr 2026
This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and welfare inequality in the …
Why do some firms pay persistently higher wages for observably similar workers, and what role do firms' product-market power (monopoly/markups), labor-market power (monopsony/markdowns), and workers' …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 18 Mar 2026
This paper estimates the causal effects of universal daycare access on mothers' labor force participation, full-time employment, hours worked, and earnings across 34 years after the birth of their …
This paper proposes that university R&D is determined endogenously by competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education, and asks why universities fund research …
This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual Nash renegotiation …
This paper asks how the threat of forced climate migration — international displacement driven by climate-induced natural disasters — should alter optimal carbon taxation. The motivation is twofold.
The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a methodological …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Aug 2026
Wealth in the US is far more concentrated than income, even among the bottom 99%. In 2013, the next-49% (above the bottom 50%) earned 4.7 times the income of the bottom 50% but held 6.5 times the net …
This paper investigates how within-firm pay inequality relates to firm-level labor productivity, using a novel linkage of three confidential U.S. Census Bureau datasets covering millions of workers at …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 24 Jan 2026
Dolado, Lalé, and Turon build a structural equilibrium model of the U.K. low-wage labour market to evaluate zero-hours contracts (ZHCs), employment agreements under which firms are not required to …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Sep 2025Published Sep 2026
Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian (NK) and monetarist models struggle with three broad …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 11 Jul 2025Published Aug 2026
Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by implication, financial markets and the transmission …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 28 Aug 2025
As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts with bank deposits. Prior work spans a wide range of …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 5 Jun 2025
The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the elasticity of substitution across product varieties. …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Oct 2025
This paper proposes a shadow rate no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model (SDTSM) with drifting trends to estimate the long-run trend of the real interest rate using yield curve data from the U.S., …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Jun 2025
Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic government bonds? This was a first-order policy …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Sep 2025Published Aug 2026
Research question and motivation: Asset fire sales were a defining feature of the 2007-08 crisis, and post-crisis reforms (Basel III liquidity requirements, Money Market Mutual Fund reforms) were …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 25 Jun 2025Published Aug 2026
This paper studies a transmission channel from sovereign fiscal weakness to banking performance that the literature has largely overlooked: government-provided deposit insurance, rather than banks' …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 29 Oct 2025
The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks' non-core funding, and whether exchange rate flexibility (and macroprudential policy) can insulate …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Jan 2026
Folch and Mazzone ask how undergraduate student debt shapes three intertwined post-college decisions — whether to pursue a post-bachelor (graduate) degree, the trajectory of earnings, and whether/when …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 11 Jun 2025
Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers and investors.
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Jul 2025
Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and why the type of employment — specifically public-sector employment — affects household saving rates in China. This matters because Chinese …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 7 Jun 2025
Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic policy, while a key transmission channel runs …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Jun 2025Published Aug 2026
Noël and Sun build an information-based theory of capital structure designed to explain the diversity of observed firm financing behavior and the coexistence of distinct optimal financial contracts. …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Jun 2025
This paper revisits the "reversal puzzle" — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian models the effect of forward …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Sep 2025Published Aug 2026
This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a "market-maker of last resort" (MMLR) can …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 10 Oct 2025Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation. Banks reluctant to recognize losses on troubled borrowers engage in "loan evergreening"—rolling over or extending credit to delay loss recognition.
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Nov 2025
There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of it, yet evidence on the macroeconomic effectiveness …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Sep 2025
Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — especially Brazil — kept using them countercyclically …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jul 2025
Antitrust review of mergers has historically focused almost entirely on harm to consumers (product-market monopoly), ignoring harm to workers (labor-market monopsony). Following the July 2021 White …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 8 Jul 2025Published Sep 2026
Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies' foreign debt rose from 75% in 2010 to 81% in 2018. Such debt is dangerous …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Jun 2025Published Sep 2026
Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents "present bias" — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, producing preference reversals inconsistent with standard …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jan 2025
Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for policymakers.
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Jun 2025Published Aug 2026
When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that fundamentals are …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Oct 2025
Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household Inflation Expectations survey decline to answer the …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jun 2025
Research question and motivation: Central bankers, regulators, and investors increasingly worry about climate "transition risks" — abrupt shifts in climate policy, green technology breakthroughs, or …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Oct 2025
How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the "precautionary saving motive." The precautionary-saving literature has mostly studied one-dimensional …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Oct 2025
The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system's foreign-asset exposure plays in transmitting exchange rate shocks. The motivation is concrete: …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Nov 2025
This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as "Import Competition and …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 29 Jul 2025
Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, Krueger-Kubler, …
PublishedReview of Economic DynamicsPublished Jan 2026
How does endogenizing retirement (career-length) choice change the labor-supply and human-capital implications of the canonical Heckman, Lochner, and Taber (1998a, HLT) life-cycle general-equilibrium …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 1 Sep 2025
How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given rising reliance on international borrowing under …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 15 Nov 2024
Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing an "insurance …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 15 Nov 2024
Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends even a decade later? Imai and Sawada test one …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2024
This paper establishes basic facts about the external finance premium (EFP) faced by euro area firms borrowing from banks, and studies how monetary policy is transmitted to it. The EFP — the extra …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Dec 2024Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households' one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, unemployment, economic …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2024
Research question and motivation. Public procurement accounts for roughly one-third of government spending (12.6% of GDP and 30% of total government expenditures in OECD countries in 2019).
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Dec 2024Published Sep 2026
Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European deposit insurance …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Nov 2024
This paper measures the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the 2021-2023 inflation surge across households in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Jul 2026
Why have less-educated voters in the United States abandoned the Democratic Party over recent decades? The paper argues that the Democratic Party's evolution on economic policy — specifically its …
This paper studies, within a simple "ad hoc" macroeconomic model not derived from individuals' and firms' optimizing behavior but built to resemble the macroeconometric models of the time, how the …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 20 Jan 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper investigates whether information constraints — rather than fully forward-looking choices — contribute to mothers' reduced labor supply after childbirth, a key driver of gender inequality. …
Commenting on Christina and David Romer's claim that active Federal Reserve policy ended postwar recessions, Cochrane argues that their historical narrative cannot distinguish a Fed that reacts to …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
Standard survey-based measurement of inflation expectations relies on density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified inflation bins; this method has been found to induce …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 5 Jun 2026Published Jul 2026
Bordalo, Gennaioli, Lanzani, and Shleifer develop a cognitive theory of choice in which a decision maker's attention to the features of options is determined by her categorization of the current …
Prepared as background for the IMF's Integrated Policy Framework, this paper builds a three-period small open economy in which monetary policy, capital inflow controls, sterilized foreign exchange …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished May 1992
This 1992 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil tests whether Robert Solow's (1956) neoclassical growth model, augmented to include accumulation of human as well as physical …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Feb 1956
Robert Solow's 1956 paper argues that the Harrod-Domar model's famous conclusion -- that steady economic growth is only ever balanced on a "knife-edge," liable to tip into growing unemployment or …
Cochrane asks whether U.S. postwar inflation can be understood using a "frictionless" fiscal theory of the price level -- in which the price level is pinned down by the government's intertemporal …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Feb 1969
This 1969 paper by James Tobin, published in the inaugural issue of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, sets out a general-equilibrium framework for monetary analysis built around the capital …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Dec 2025
This paper develops a tractable continuous-time model to study the fiscal sustainability of government deficits and the joint dynamics of public debt, with two main ingredients: an endogenous interest …
PublishedClassicMacroeconomic DynamicsOnline 30 Sep 2024Published Jan 2025
Audzei and Sutóris ask whether inflation-targeting monetary policy affects households' incentives to invest in energy conservation, and whether the standard central bank response to energy price …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Feb 2026
This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing toward second homes (as opposed to the …
This paper solves the full, global equilibrium dynamics (not just a linearization around the steady state) of an economy in which financially constrained "experts" intermediate capital, showing that …
Frank Ramsey's 1928 paper asks how much of its income a nation ought to save, and derives a rule -- that the rate of saving times the marginal utility of consumption should equal the gap between …
PublishedClassicQuantitative EconomicsOnline 1 Nov 2018Published Nov 2018
A method for solving heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate shocks that replaces the infinite-dimensional distribution with a flexible parametric family, treats that family's moments as endogenous …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Sep 2025
A common observation from account-level bank data is that low-income, low-liquidity households often use additional income to repay debt rather than consume, and that household-level consumption is …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Feb 2019
This 2019 Journal of Money, Credit and Banking paper by John Keating, Logan Kelly, A. Lee Smith, and Victor Valcarcel asks whether replacing the federal funds rate with Divisia M4 (DM4) -- a …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 14 May 2026
This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what …
What makes a sovereign bond a safe asset is not the strength of its fundamentals in absolute terms but their strength relative to the alternatives, together with the size of the debt outstanding -- …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 9 Jul 2026
The paper builds a tractable dynamic general-equilibrium model in which data is information that firms accumulate to forecast a moving target, is generated as a by-product of production, is tradeable …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 21 Feb 2025Published Jul 2025
Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to ordinary corporate bonds — with …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Jan 2023
Building on the finding that the velocity of M1 is, to a close approximation, the permanent component of short-term nominal interest rates, this paper proposes estimating the natural rate of interest …
This 2014 European Economic Review paper by Gary Koop and Dimitris Korobilis develops a time-varying-parameter factor-augmented VAR (TVP-FAVAR) with dynamic model averaging (DMA) to construct a …
This paper reformulates perturbation approximation of heterogeneous-agent models as the problem of finding directional derivatives that solve small, analytically-characterized linear systems -- a …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Nov 2025Published Nov 2025
The paper develops a two-country preferred-habitat model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles — currency traders with price-elastic demand for foreign …
A microfounded two-country New Keynesian model, calibrated separately to a representative emerging market and a representative advanced economy, in which limited FX-market risk-bearing capacity and an …
An empirically-oriented New Keynesian small open economy model, of the kind central banks use, built to quantify when foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management tools improve monetary …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Feb 2022
This 2022 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control paper by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland asks whether a policy rule that steers the growth rate of money, rather than the short-term nominal …
This 1966 American Economic Review paper by Maurice Allais asks whether the quantity theory of money can be given a single operational formulation that holds uniformly across normal times and …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 30 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
This paper develops a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that: (1) generalizes the Stock-Yogo (2005) and Sanderson-Windmeijer (2016) tests to be robust to …
PublishedClassicInternational Journal of Central BankingPublished Dec 2018
This 2023 American Economic Review paper by Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters develops a theoretical framework, with an empirical application to U.S. monetary policy, for evaluating whether current …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 17 Feb 2026
This paper examines the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—two government bailout programs during the Global Financial Crisis and the …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 10 Jun 2026
The paper studies Germany's temporary 3 percentage-point VAT cut from July 1 to December 31, 2020 (standard rate 19%→16%, reduced rate 7%→5%), combining two causal identification strategies with …
This paper builds a theory of macroprudential policy whose only friction is nominal rigidity in goods and labor markets, possibly combined with a constraint on monetary policy such as the zero lower …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Feb 2026Published Feb 2026
Modern macroeconomic models of aggregate supply universally restrict firms to price-setting — committing to a price and supplying whatever quantity the market demands. Flynn, Nikolakoudis, and Sastry …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Apr 2026
Finocchiaro and Weil ask whether financial development necessarily promotes long-run economic growth, or whether congestion externalities in R&D markets can offset — and even reverse — the growth …
This paper extends and applies the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) framework to evaluate the welfare consequences of 96 climate-related tax and spending policies in the United States. The MVPF …
This 2007 American Economic Review paper by Fernández-Villaverde, Rubio-Ramírez, Sargent, and Watson asks when the structural economic shocks in a DSGE model's state-space representation can be …
This paper asks how persistent increases in international migrant income prospects affect long-run economic development in migrant-origin areas. The central question is whether Philippine provinces …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
Many multinationals do not fully adjust wages to the local context of their foreign establishments; instead, they partially link the wages of foreign workers in a given position to the wages paid in …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper investigates the problem of additionality — the likelihood that a conservation action is marginal to (i.e., caused by) an incentive — in the United States Department of Agriculture's …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
Why do corporate defaults cluster in recurring episodes rather than occurring smoothly? The paper asks whether observable fundamental factors — firm characteristics and macroeconomic variables — are …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 23 Oct 2025
Consumers' inflation expectations are heterogeneous across birth cohorts and history-dependent: using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), the paper documents that each cohort's …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 13 Aug 2025Published Oct 2025
Errico and Lashkari address two intertwined problems in the measurement of aggregate price indices: how to account for quality change and variety entry/exit when the demand system is not CES, and how …
Building on the Kaplan-Violante two-account incomplete-markets model, this manuscript shows that once idiosyncratic risk is assumed to rise when asset valuations fall, the aggregate value of each …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 12 Dec 2025Published Jan 2026
AI can improve decisions, raise firm productivity, and accelerate human capital growth through its effect on signal quality in problem-solving tasks, but the consequences are heterogeneous across the …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 27 Nov 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper investigates the origins of serfdom in early modern Russia, arguing that the institution consolidated primarily through political economy dynamics between the crown and a landholding …
This 2004 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Paolo Giordani offers an analytical and empirical alternative to the Sims (1992) forward-looking-information explanation of the "price puzzle" — the …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
This paper introduces the Distributional Endogenous Gridpoint Method (DEGM), a novel numerical technique for solving the distributional dynamics that arise in heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models. …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
How should governments design neighborhood-based policies to improve long-run outcomes for children, once one accounts for general equilibrium (GE) forces—endogenous rents, neighborhood quality, …
PublishedClassicJournal of the European Economic AssociationPublished Sep 2003
A sticky-price, sticky-wage dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area, with habit formation, investment adjustment costs and variable capacity utilisation, is estimated by Bayesian methods on …
This 1958 Journal of Political Economy paper by Paul Samuelson builds a deliberately stripped-down model of a world in which goods cannot be stored or invested -- nothing "keeps" -- so people can only …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Nov 2025Published Nov 2025
This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether real marginal cost or the output gap …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 4 Jun 2026
This paper derives a three-factor consumption model that adds news about long-run consumption growth and news about long-run consumption variance to the baseline Consumption CAPM, and tests it on a …
This 1974 Journal of Political Economy paper by Robert Barro asks whether an increase in government bonds raises households' perceived net wealth, and argues that within an overlapping-generations …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 9 Jun 2025Published Oct 2025
The paper asks whether inflationary shocks are regressive, and demonstrates that the answer depends critically on the source of the shock. A single aggregate inflation statistic conceals radically …
This 2012 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Olivier Coibion asks why standard recursive VARs and the Romer-Romer (2004) narrative approach produce such different estimates of the real …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
Wang and Wong develop a continuous-time labor-search model to assess the dynamic effects of generative AI (GenAI) on labor productivity and unemployment. The paper is motivated by conflicting …
This 2002 FRBNY Economic Policy Review paper by Jean Boivin and Marc Giannoni asks whether the transmission of monetary policy shocks to U.S. output and inflation changed after the early 1980s, and if …
This 1978 Econometrica paper by Robert E. Lucas, Jr. builds a theoretical model of a one-good, pure-exchange economy with identical consumers and a fixed number of stochastically productive units, in …
A one-parameter-family utility function nests time-separable preferences, "catching up with the Joneses" (utility depends on own consumption relative to lagged aggregate consumption per capita) and …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 14 Oct 2025Published Mar 2026
This paper develops an auction model that jointly incorporates three frictions pervading informal price-formation processes: (1) costly recruitment by the seller, (2) costly participation by bidders, …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
Should regulators restrict banks from proactively raising credit card limits using machine-learning algorithms, and if so, how? The paper asks: to what extent are bank-initiated credit limit increases …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 30 Jan 2026Published Apr 2026
Acemoglu and Restrepo examine the effects of automation in economies where labor market distortions cause some workers to earn rents—wages above their opportunity cost or outside option. The central …
Because a Taylor-type interest-rate rule must be consistent with the zero nominal-interest-rate bound, it always admits a second, unintended steady state with low or negative inflation alongside the …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 24 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
Banks produce private information about borrowers that is inherently unobservable to outside researchers. Howes and Weitzner ask whether the quality of this private information is countercyclical — …
This 2007 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Wouter den Haan, Steven Sumner, and Guy Yamashiro asks whether the three main categories of U.S. bank loans -- commercial and industrial (C&I), real …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 14 Nov 2024Published Sep 2026
This paper studies when a bank is more effective as a supplier of privately produced money-like safe assets (repo, commercial paper), finding that a bank produces safer, more liquid assets when (1) …
A three-period model in which households face a privately observed, uninsurable risk of needing to consume early, and where a demand deposit contract lets banks share that risk better than any market …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 1 May 2026
This paper demonstrates that the canonical efficiency result of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) — that banks using maturity transformation can decentralize the first-best risk-sharing allocation — breaks …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 27 Oct 2020Published Mar 2021
A currency's role as the unit of account in which trade is invoiced and its role as a safe store of value reinforce each other, because households who buy dollar-priced imports want dollar-denominated …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 30 Oct 2025Published Jan 2026
How prevalent is individual wage bargaining in the labor market, what determines firms' bargaining strategies, how do bargaining encounters unfold for workers, and does heterogeneity in bargaining …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 23 Jun 2025Published Oct 2025
Why do observed international investment positions and cross-country differences in rates of return to capital fail to conform to a frictionless capital-market benchmark? The paper asks how large the …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 11 Sep 2026
The Behavioral New Keynesian model fixes the forward guidance puzzle by making agents myopic: "cognitive discounting", in Gabaix's (2014, 2016, 2020) formulation, shrinks expectations of distant …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 18 Jun 2026
Linking the monthly Danish Consumer Expectations Survey to the Danish administrative registry, this paper shows that households' inflation forecasts move strongly and negatively with their own recent …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jul 2025
Households are exposed to different rates of inflation because they buy different things, and using anonymised quarterly bank-account records for 89,507 individuals at one of Estonia's leading …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
The paper asks two questions: (1) How do workers' biased expectations about job finding and job separation shape the labor market equilibrium and wages? (2) Are differences in expectation biases …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Nov 2025Published Nov 2025
Does monetary policy stimulate household borrowing and consumption by enabling cash-out mortgage refinancing ("the cash-out refinance channel"), or does it primarily induce substitution across …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 19 Jun 2025Published Oct 2025
The paper asks how firm-level, sector-level, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation, and whether a single structural model can reconcile seemingly contradictory …
Cross-currency basis swap spreads are widely read as a post-crisis anomaly in which covered interest parity has broken down; this paper argues the opposite -- that a swap dealer who priced a …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 23 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
This paper measures the causal effects of land transport infrastructure on economic activity, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in bridge construction over the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment, specifically by incorporating firm-level investment decisions — a dimension absent from prior literature. The central …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Feb 1997
This paper argues that once consumers face meaningful, uninsurable income risk and are "impatient," they behave as buffer-stock savers who hold a target wealth-to-income ratio and whose average …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 29 May 2026Published Jul 2026
The paper studies how the two roles of stock markets — revealing information about firms' fundamentals, which guides capital allocation, and providing liquidity — interact, arguing that when stocks …
PublishedEconometricaOnline 1 Jan 2024Published Sep 2024
The paper asks whether a government can run a deficit today — issuing "stimulus checks" — and allow debt to return to its initial level without any future tax hike or spending cut. In environments …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Sep 2011
Surveying theory, aggregate U.S. time-series evidence, and the newer cross-state/cross-locality literature on the government-spending multiplier, Ramey concludes that the multiplier for a temporary, …
Farrokhi and Lashkaripour (2025) study the interaction between trade policy and climate change. The central research question is whether and how countries can use trade policy — specifically import …
Anderson and Duanmu (2025) ask how general equilibrium (GE) interactions — factor reallocation across sectors, capital misallocation under climate uncertainty, and the distributional incidence of …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Nov 2007
The literature's standard finding -- that countries with open capital accounts do not grow faster -- tests a prediction the neoclassical growth model never makes, because in that model liberalization …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished Nov 2012
Dating extreme capital-flow episodes from gross rather than net flows splits the picture in two -- "surges" and "stops" driven by foreign investors, "flight" and "retrenchment" driven by domestic …
Bank leverage is the linchpin of a risk-taking channel through which monetary policy travels across borders: in a pre-crisis quarterly VAR a tighter US policy rate raises the VIX, lowers broker-dealer …
Shifts in global risk appetite move not just the middle of the emerging-market capital-flow and return distributions but their left tails, and usually the left tail more. Estimating panel quantile …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 22 Jan 2013Published Oct 2013
The textbook neoclassical growth model says countries whose productivity is catching up should invest more and import more capital. Across 68 developing countries over 1980-2000 the cross-country …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 30 Apr 2026
This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget immunizes the economy …
PublishedClassicThe Canadian Journal of Economics and Political SciencePublished Nov 1963
This 1963 Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science paper by Robert Mundell asks what happens to monetary and fiscal policy's power over domestic income and employment once capital is …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 12 Aug 2026
Physical capital, like labour, can be "unemployed" — sitting idle while its owner searches for a buyer or tenant — and this paper documents that in the United States such idle capital is large, …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 21 May 2026
Using the November 2017 EU Emissions Trading System reform, which pushed permit prices from about 5 to 20 euros per tonne, and loan-level data from the Italian Credit Registry, this paper asks whether …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Apr 2026
Lippi and Moracci (2026) ask how euro area households choose between cash and card payments, and whether existing theoretical models can explain observed behavior. They draw on ECB payment diary …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 18 May 2026
This paper develops a general model of experimentation under catastrophe risk in which the catastrophe is triggered when a stock variable exceeds an unknown threshold, but occurs only after a …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jul 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three central questions: (1) Are leaks random …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 4 Jun 2026
The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Oct 2024Published Sep 2026
This paper constructs a new measure of political pressure on the Federal Reserve from textual analysis of Fed Chairs' testimonies at Humphrey-Hawkins congressional hearings, and documents that the use …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? Specifically, can a central bank that …
Classifying Federal Reserve crisis-era interventions into monetary policy, credit policy, and interest-on-reserves policy, Goodfriend argues that only "Treasuries only" monetary policy is fiscally …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 8 Jan 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper documents sharp divergent trends in intergenerational economic mobility by race and class in the United States across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, and investigates the causal mechanisms …
Embedding a costly-state-verification debt contract -- in which a borrower's external finance premium depends inversely on net worth -- into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model, this chapter …
PublishedClassicHandbook of International EconomicsPublished Jan 1995
The intertemporal approach treats the current account as the outcome of forward-looking saving and investment decisions rather than as a function of relative prices, and this chapter develops it from …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
This paper develops a unified choice-theoretic framework in which agents evaluate alternatives not in isolation but relative to their opportunity costs — the alternatives they forgo. The central …
PublishedClassicHandbook of International EconomicsPublished Jan 2022
A Handbook chapter reviewing the breakdown of covered interest rate parity during the Global Financial Crisis and its persistence through the following decade -- how the cross-currency basis is …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 12 Feb 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper examines the impact of conflict-driven forced displacement on human capital accumulation using the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992) as the empirical setting. During this war, over four …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper asks two related questions about the intersection of climate policy and bank capital regulation. First, can differentiated bank capital requirements — imposing higher equity charges on …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 4 Jun 2026
This paper embeds a carbon pricing sector into an extended DSGE model with a financial accelerator (E-DSGE) featuring heterogeneous firms, bank monitoring, and a borrowing-constraint amplification …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 20 May 2026
This paper asks whether exposure to greater female representation in the workplace can persistently reduce intergenerational gender gaps in labor market outcomes. The authors exploit the sudden, …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 18 Feb 2026
This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes' rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals systematically …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 11 Apr 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper asks how a third-party intermediary (an "algorithm") that observes market demand or costs superior to competing firms should optimally disclose that information to maximize the firms' …
Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles can resolve the capital over-accumulation problem when the economy is …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Apr 2026
This comment, written by J. Carter Braxton (University of Wisconsin), discusses the paper "Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment" by Wang and Wong (2025), which develops and …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jun 2026
This paper is a published comment by Miao Ben Zhang (USC Marshall School of Business) on Mihet, Rishabh, and Gomes (2025), "Is It AI or Data That Drives Market Power?" Zhang identifies three …
Discussing Christina and David Romer's "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks," Cochrane argues the paper's key innovation -- that Greenbook forecasts are a sufficient statistic for the Fed's information …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Sep 2025
A central debate in fiscal policy is whether fiscal rules—numerical constraints on budget deficits or debt levels—impair a government's ability to respond to adverse economic shocks, creating a …
PublishedClassicReview of Financial StudiesOnline 30 Aug 2011Published Nov 2011
Sorting currencies into six portfolios by their forward discounts, this paper shows that a single return-based factor -- the return on the highest minus the return on the lowest interest rate currency …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper studies how immigration enforcement affects public safety, asking two questions: (1) what is the effect of increased enforcement on criminal victimization, and (2) how does increased …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 16 Jun 2026
This paper studies imperfect competition in selection markets where competing firms have heterogeneous information about consumers — a layer of asymmetry distinct from the classic buyer-seller …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Apr 2026
Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 17 Jun 2026
How does individually negotiated pricing — where buyers make discrete choices among differentiated products and negotiate transaction-specific prices — affect market power and merger effects in …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 18 Jun 2026
Hwang, Kim, and Boleslavsky study how firms in an oligopoly simultaneously choose prices and advertising strategies, where advertising is modeled as the choice of how much product information to …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Oct 2025Published Oct 2025
This paper asks two related questions. First, can one develop a robust, distribution-free estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of duration with unobserved …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Feb 2026Published Feb 2026
Do import tariffs affect consumer credit terms, and does focusing solely on goods prices understate tariff pass-through to consumers? The paper also asks whether vertical integration -- specifically, …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two stylized facts motivate the paper: (1) …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished Nov 1993
Nontraded goods had been invoked to explain several international puzzles at once -- persistent deviations from purchasing power parity, low cross-country consumption correlations, and real interest …
Haupt and Hitzig introduce a framework for comparing the privacy properties of different mechanism protocols. The core research question is: when a designer commits to implementing a social choice …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 24 Sep 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper asks two related questions bearing on financial inclusion policy in developing countries: (1) How effective are credit card contract term changes — specifically interest rate reductions and …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 24 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
This paper studies when a principal can improve upon simple one-dimensional mechanisms by also deploying costly nonprice screening instruments — actions that are socially wasteful yet potentially …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 11 Dec 2024Published Jan 2025
This paper constructs a new dataset of US federal bond prices and uses it to estimate the full term structure of yields on gold-denominated US federal debt from 1791 to 1933 — the entire gold standard …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Aug 2026
Using the Livingston survey - the longest-running U.S. survey of professional economists, running twice a year since June 1952 - this paper shows that the expected excess stock return implied by these …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 11 May 2026
Discrete choice data identify only differences in agents' utilities, not utility levels. In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models this means many policy-relevant counterfactuals — those requiring …
PublishedClassicJournal of the European Economic AssociationPublished Feb 2011
This paper develops a simple, widely applicable approximation method for computing equilibrium country portfolios in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium open-economy macro models -- any number of …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Dec 2025
Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England's published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, QE4: …
This 2012 American Economic Review paper by Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajšek constructs a new corporate-bond credit spread index -- the "GZ spread" -- from a large panel of secondary-market bond …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jun 2026
This paper asks how rising returns to scale in production contributed to three concurrent U.S. secular trends since 1980: declining business dynamism, rising markups, and growing firm expenditures on …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 17 Jun 2026
This paper asks whether firm-level customer acquisition — distinct from productivity differences — is a quantitatively important driver of aggregate economic growth, and whether ignoring it distorts …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 26 Feb 2026
This paper studies what happens to local banking markets when a small bank suffers a successful cyberattack, using a stacked difference-in-differences design on 16 cyber incidents at small U.S. banks …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 19 Mar 2026
This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 4 Jun 2026
This paper applies a multiple-denomination commodity money model — building on Lee, Wallace, and Zhu (2005) — to coinage episodes in late medieval England, and derives two main findings. Shortages of …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 21 Aug 2026
Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 17 Feb 2026
This paper applies classical statistical decision theory (Wald 1950) to treatment choice problems where the data only partially identify payoff-relevant parameters. The policy maker chooses an action …
This 2020 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Marek Jarociński and Peter Karadi argues that conventional high-frequency-identified monetary policy surprises conflate two economically …
If households form habits over individual goods rather than over a consumption aggregate, the demand a firm faces depends on its own past sales, its pricing problem becomes dynamic, and mark-ups turn …
PublishedClassicQuantitative EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
DeepHAM represents the distribution of agents through a small set of algorithmically-learned "generalized moments" and uses deep neural networks trained on directly simulated paths to globally solve …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Nov 2025Published Nov 2025
Does automatic enrollment (auto-enrollment) in retirement savings plans increase lifetime wealth accumulation and welfare? The prior literature established large short-run participation effects but …
In a small open economy where a risk-averse government borrows from risk-neutral lenders using only non-contingent one-period bonds, default happens in equilibrium and happens in *recessions* -- the …
This paper asks whether digital platforms can improve healthcare outcomes by enabling needs-based matching between patients and physicians unconstrained by geography. Amanda Dahlstrand studies digital …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 29 Oct 2025Published Jul 2026
Agarwal and Somaini study demand estimation in markets where consumers face latent choice constraints — situations where a consumer's effective choice set is determined not only by her preferences but …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 6 Nov 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper estimates the distributional and social consequences of Department of Defense (DOD) contract spending using a city-level (CBSA) panel dataset spanning 2005–2016. The research question is …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 16 Sep 2026
A popular argument — the "asset market meltdown" of the 1990s, revived as the "great demographic reversal" — holds that once the old start running down their savings, aging will push interest rates …
This 2026 Journal of Macroeconomics paper by Zhengyang Chen asks why high-frequency monetary policy surprises (MPS) -- changes in short-term interest-rate futures measured in narrow windows around …
This paper develops a sufficient statistics framework for the welfare analysis of disability insurance (DI) policy reforms and applies it to two reform episodes in Austria. The framework derives …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper studies the design of dynamic reassignment mechanisms—centralized systems that must not only provide good initial matches but also accommodate changes in agents' preferences over time. The …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 23 Jan 2026
Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from low-inflation to high-inflation countries — …
Cochrane argues that the standard new-Keynesian account of how a Taylor rule pins down inflation is incomplete -- it works only by assuming the government will follow policies that amount to a threat …
Auclert, Majic, Rognlie, and Straub show that the sequence-space Jacobians used to solve macro models with rich heterogeneity have a special "quasi-Toeplitz" mathematical structure, which yields a …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 24 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
Ferrante and Gornemann study the aggregate and redistributive effects of currency devaluations in emerging market economies, focusing on a feature that prior open-economy HANK models had not jointly …
PublishedClassicThe Journal of FinanceOnline 24 May 2018Published Jun 2018
Covered interest rate parity, the no-arbitrage cornerstone of currency forward pricing, is shown to be systematically and persistently violated among G10 currencies after the 2008 crisis, in ways that …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 17 Oct 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper estimates the causal effects of mobile app usage on college students' academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes, while separately identifying behavioral (endogenous) …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 11 Feb 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper develops and implements a system of disaggregated economic accounts that breaks down national accounting positions into bilateral flows between small groups of consumers, producers, the …
PublishedClassicCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public PolicyPublished Dec 1993
This 1993 Carnegie-Rochester Conference paper by John Taylor introduces what became known as the "Taylor rule" — a simple guideline for setting the federal funds rate, r = p + 0.5y + 0.5(p - 2) + 2, …
PublishedClassicBrookings Papers on Economic ActivityPublished Mar 2012
This 2012 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity paper by James Stock and Mark Watson asks whether the unusual severity of the 2007-09 recession and the weakness of the recovery that followed required …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jul 2026
This paper isolates the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on employment recovery, separating them from the simultaneously operating stimulative (demand) effects …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ReviewPublished May 1995
This 1995 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review paper by Stephen Cecchetti surveys the empirical literature attempting to distinguish two competing theories of how monetary policy affects the real …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 22 Jul 2025Published Oct 2025
This paper constructs the first estimates of the aggregate and distributional effects of worldwide educational expansion since 1980 by developing a "distributional growth accounting" framework that …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 11 Nov 2025Published Sep 2026
This paper investigates how buyer demand for supplier diversification shapes entry incentives and market structure, using the global undersea fiber-optic cable industry as the empirical setting. The …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 30 Oct 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper studies why children from high-income families are more likely to attend Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, Chicago — 12 colleges total) and whether attending these …
PublishedClassicInternational Journal of Central BankingPublished May 2005
This 2005 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson tests whether asset-price responses to FOMC announcements can be adequately characterized by a …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Oct 2025Published Oct 2025
To what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the 2000s housing boom and bust? The existing literature offers sharply divergent answers — ranging from credit explaining virtually …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 27 Nov 2024Published Jan 2025
The paper tests whether financial concerns distract workers sufficiently to meaningfully reduce their productivity, and whether receiving cash — by alleviating those concerns — can raise output even …
PublishedClassicEconomic ModellingOnline 28 May 2022Published Sep 2022
In a calibrated neo-classical growth model, moving from financial autarky to integration raises consumption most in the first years after opening, so the standard infinite-horizon Hicksian welfare …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 20 Feb 2026
This paper asks why the Home Energy Report (HER) — a widely deployed social-comparison nudge that shows households how their electricity consumption compares to their neighbors — produces behavioral …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 1 Dec 2025
Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies the deposit-stabilizing …
PublishedClassicCambridge Journal of EconomicsOnline 24 Dec 2013Published Mar 2014
A critical replication of Reinhart and Rogoff's "Growth in a Time of Debt" using their own working spreadsheet, which identifies three separate problems -- an unexplained exclusion of early post-war …
Even the most extreme departure from complete international asset markets -- one in which investors can hold nothing abroad but the foreign risk-free bond -- fails to match the smoothness of exchange …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 22 Sep 2025Published Jan 2026
An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are allegedly sticky in …
Written on the eve of Argentina's 2001-02 currency-board collapse, this Chicago Fed policy piece examines Argentina's 1991-99 dollar peg as a test case for the costs and benefits of full …
Sims argues that fiat government debt is best understood as analogous to privately issued equity rather than to privately issued debt, since it promises only future paper rather than a commodity the …
PublishedClassicStaff Papers - International Monetary FundPublished Nov 1962
This 1962 IMF Staff Papers article by J. Marcus Fleming compares how effective monetary policy and budgetary (fiscal) policy are at stimulating domestic income and output under fixed versus floating …
Across 16 industrial countries whose saving and investment rates are averaged over 1960-74, a one-percentage-point higher ratio of gross domestic saving to GDP comes with roughly nine-tenths of a …
Because most trade is invoiced in a few dominant currencies rather than in the producer's or the destination's currency, it is the dollar exchange rate and not the bilateral one that drives import …
This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
Hazell and Taska use wages posted on online job vacancies — matched to job titles and establishment identifiers from Burning Glass Technologies — to measure the wage for new hires at the job level …
This 2005 Review of Economic Dynamics paper by Timothy Cogley and Thomas J. Sargent extends their earlier Cogley-Sargent (2001) time-varying-parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) of postwar U.S.
PublishedClassicHandbook of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jan 2010
This 2011 Handbook of Monetary Economics chapter is a selective survey and original empirical estimation of medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE models for monetary policy analysis. It first works through …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Jan 2017
This 2017 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control paper by Stephen D. Morris is a methodological contribution explaining why maximum-likelihood or Bayesian estimates of DSGE structural parameters often …
This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that fear as evidence accumulates, and what …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 30 Jan 2026
This paper evaluates the efficiency of linked environmental regulation, a targeting mechanism whereby inspectors who discover violations at one plant can increase enforcement pressure on other plants …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Mar 2026
Each month a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more, creating thousands of natural experiments in which the same property's rent and capital value are revealed simultaneously. …
PublishedClassicCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public PolicyPublished Jan 1976
This 1976 Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series paper by Robert Lucas argues that the standard "theory of economic policy" -- simulating a fixed, estimated econometric model under alternative …
Trevor Swan's 1956 paper illustrates, with two diagrams, the connexion between capital accumulation and the growth of the productive labour force in a one-sector economy, then devotes a long appendix …
This 1980 paper lays out the theoretical foundation for treating monetary aggregates such as M2 as genuine economic quantities and derives the Divisia index as the theoretically correct way to measure …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 27 Jan 2026Published Sep 2026
This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers' educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare consequences are of ignoring this …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 May 2026Published May 2026
Can income tax schedules be justified as utilitarian-optimal without adopting extreme normative assumptions about how household welfare should be measured? The paper proposes a welfare criterion …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 21 May 2026
Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ReviewPublished Mar 1994
Across the dollar/mark, dollar/pound, dollar/yen and trade-weighted dollar rates over November 1976 to June 1981, no structural exchange rate model, univariate time series model, vector autoregression …
This paper studies how firms' optimal technique choices under productivity uncertainty endogenously shape the structure of production networks and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. Each sector chooses …
This 1990 Journal of Political Economy paper by Paul Romer models long-run growth as driven by technological change that arises from intentional research investment by profit-maximizing firms, …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper asks how rate-of-return (RoR) regulation in U.S. electricity markets affects the speed and efficiency of energy transitions, specifically the transition from coal to combined-cycle natural …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 29 Nov 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper tests Joel Mokyr's claim that Britain's industrialization was preceded and enabled by a cultural shift — specifically, that Enlightenment ideals produced a "progress-oriented" view of …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 4 Sep 2026
Covert and Kellogg study policies that aim to "keep carbon in the ground" by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment, with the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) as their empirical application. DAPL …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
This paper studies the labor market effects of "Equal Pay for Similar Work" (EPSW) policies — laws that require firms to pay equal wages to workers of different protected-class identities (e.g., …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 3 Sep 2026
Most quantitative models of entrepreneurship assume that large firms are widely held and unconstrained; this paper documents that across the Eurozone they are frequently not, and asks what that …
This 2017 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Mariano Kulish, James Morley, and Tim Robinson addresses a practical problem in Bayesian estimation of DSGE models: once the policy rate is pinned at …
By treating a nonlinear model's own parameters as extra "pseudo state variables" that a neural network learns to solve for across the entire parameter space at once, and by training a second network …
This 2011 International Economic Review paper by Óscar Jordà and Sharon Kozicki proposes "projection minimum distance" (PMD), a two-step semiparametric estimator for macroeconomic models whose …
This 2005 American Economic Review paper by Òscar Jordà introduces "local projections" (LP) — a way to estimate impulse responses directly from a sequence of single-horizon regressions of the future …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 3 Jun 2026
This paper tests whether the sharp rise in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowance prices from 2018 onward was driven by a rational bubble. The methodological contribution is to modify the Fama …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jun 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in macroeconomic models. Specifically, …
In a multi-country heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model, debt-financed fiscal transfers eventually raise the world interest rate and are entirely absorbed by foreign lenders, but in the short run a …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Dec 2013
Asked whether anything forecasts exchange rates, this survey's answer is "it depends" -- on the predictor, the horizon, the sample, the model and the evaluation test. Predictability shows up most …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 2 Apr 2026Published Aug 2026
The paper develops an asset demand system to analyze, jointly and across all countries, how international portfolio holdings and flows, exchange rates, short-term rates, long-term yields, and equity …
Introducing heterogeneous households with realistically high marginal propensities to consume into an otherwise-standard small open economy New Keynesian model creates a powerful real income channel …
Across four econometric approaches and up to 114 borrowing countries, a stronger international funding currency goes with less cross-border bank lending denominated in that currency: a one percentage …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 1 Mar 2025Published Dec 2025
This paper studies three centuries of U.K. fiscal history to understand the fiscal implications of safe asset supplier status — what the authors call "exorbitant privilege" — and how it can be gained …
Embedding the Kydland-Prescott/Barro-Gordon time-inconsistency logic into a standard sticky-price, cash-credit-goods general equilibrium model, this paper shows the model generically has either two …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
What drives the joint historical dynamics of the term structure of equity yields and nominal bond yields — and can a single unified equilibrium model explain the procyclical equity yield slope, the …
This 1976 Journal of Political Economy paper by Rudiger Dornbusch builds a small open-economy model in which capital is perfectly mobile and asset markets clear instantly, but the price of domestic …
This 1972 Journal of Economic Theory paper by Robert Lucas constructs an overlapping-generations general equilibrium model — young and old traders exchanging in two physically separated, …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ReviewPublished Jul 2001
Building a simple rational-expectations model of the federal funds market -- a lagged Trading Desk "reaction function" for the supply of Fed balances combined with a demand for balances that depends …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
The paper asks whether an explicit, global, closed-form solution exists for the consumption function in the standard income fluctuation problem with a borrowing constraint and constant income, a …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Apr 2018
This paper proposes computing the aggregate-uncertainty equilibrium of a heterogeneous-agent model by solving, entirely with standard nonlinear methods, the deterministic transition path back to …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 8 Sep 2025Published Jan 2026
Correia, Luck, and Verner ask a foundational question in banking: why do banks fail? Specifically, they seek to adjudicate between two theoretical views — the solvency view (failures caused by …
PublishedClassicReview of International EconomicsOnline 23 Jan 2021Published May 2021
Economic policy uncertainty depresses growth in output, consumption and investment -- and about two-thirds of that effect comes from uncertainty originating in other countries rather than at home. …
This paper builds a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004 and uses it to construct financially-weighted exchange rate indices, showing that …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Feb 2026Published Feb 2026
How do consumer credit spreads — the gap between household borrowing rates and deposit rates — affect aggregate business cycle dynamics and the distribution of consumption across the wealth …
Combining high-frequency-identified monetary shocks with Compustat data, the paper shows that low-default-risk firms -- those with lower leverage and higher distance to default -- are substantially …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 15 May 2026
This paper develops a sufficient statistics approach to measuring the aggregate demand effects of financial intermediation disturbances — shocks to the ability of financial intermediaries to supply …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
This paper investigates the role of leverage of financial institutions in amplifying the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, with particular attention to whether that amplification …
This paper studies (1) how firm accommodation decisions respond to financial incentives in the context of workplace disability under workers' compensation, (2) what the causal effect of accommodation …
Contrary to treating corporate cash as simply negative debt, this paper shows that firms' liquid-asset holdings, not their leverage, robustly predict which firms cut investment most after a monetary …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
How do aggregate economic fluctuations reallocate workers across the firm productivity distribution over the business cycle? In particular, to what extent do recessions impede workers' movement up the …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper quantifies how idiosyncratic firm-level risk affects aggregate output, TFP, and firm life-cycle growth in an environment where firm productivity evolves endogenously through risky …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 28 Nov 2025Published Sep 2026
Crises have cleansing effects—low-quality firms face greater financial shortfalls and invest less than high-quality firms—but public credit support dampens these effects by reducing financing cost …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
The paper asks three related questions in the context of Belgium, a small open economy: (1) What do firms' responses to demand shocks reveal about their cost structures? (2) What are the worker and …
Estimated New Keynesian models reconcile inertial inflation with Calvo pricing only by forcing firms to re-optimise prices once every two years or more, which micro price data contradict. Making …
Auclert, Rognlie, and Straub review a decade of Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (HANK) research through a single canonical model, showing that monetary and balanced-budget fiscal policy have …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished May 2001
Applying the fiscal theory of the price level's corporate-finance analogy -- fiat (own-currency) government debt behaves like equity, while dollar-denominated or indexed debt behaves like conventional …
Solving a Ramsey model of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in which the government can finance itself only with non-contingent nominal bonds of various maturities, this paper finds that optimal …
This paper builds a model in which a currency crisis is triggered by a "fiscal imbalance" -- an anticipated decline in the government's future primary surpluses -- and shows that the size and maturity …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 28 Jul 2026
The conventional division of labour holds that central banks should not target distribution and that fiscal policy, with its targeted instruments, should handle the redistributive consequences of …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Aug 2001
Woodford argues that commitment to a sound monetary policy rule, such as a Taylor rule, cannot by itself guarantee price stability, because Ricardian equivalence fails to make fiscal policy irrelevant …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 6 Aug 2026
Most recent work on optimal foreign-exchange intervention prices the opportunity cost of reserves off either deviations from uncovered interest parity or deviations from covered interest parity, and …
This 2006 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Sophocles Brissimis and Nicholas Magginas asks whether augmenting a standard monetary VAR with forward-looking information can resolve the "price …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Apr 2026
Moro and Nispi Landi develop FraNK, a multi-country New Keynesian model designed to study geoeconomic fragmentation — defined, following Aiyar et al. (2023), as a policy-driven reversal of economic …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 13 Aug 2026
This paper studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which an informed seller sells an experience good to a skeptical buyer who learns about the product through consumption. The central question …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 28 Jan 2026
This paper investigates how the endogenous structure of credit, deposit, and interbank networks shapes business cycle fluctuations and large financial crises in the U.S. economy.
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 6 Feb 2026
This paper uses confidential daily data on the Bank of Israel's (BOI) foreign exchange purchase program in the USD/Israeli new shekel (ILS) spot market from 2013 to 2019 to study how FX interventions …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 13 Mar 2026
This paper investigates whether information asymmetries within households about maternal health risk can explain persistent spousal disagreement over fertility in a high-fertility, …
This paper asks how much adverse selection would arise in critical illness insurance (CII) markets if consumers can observe polygenic indexes (PGIs) — genetic risk scores derived from millions of …
This paper studies the short- and long-term consequences of intra-household respiratory disease transmission from older to younger siblings in Danish families. The central research questions are: (1) …
The repeated transition method solves rich heterogeneous-agent models globally and without perfect foresight by exploiting the ergodicity of a long simulated path -- matching periods with similar …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 2 Jul 2026
Drawing on about 5,000 labor force and household surveys from 160 countries that cover 97% of the world's population, this paper builds a new global database of hours worked and shows that hours …
PublishedClassicGlobalization in Historical PerspectivePublished Jan 2003
Global capital mobility traces a U over the past century and a half, and the authors argue the shape is explained by the open-economy policy trilemma rather than by technology: capital moved freely …
In 1716-1720, John Law restructured French public finance by converting most of the government's debt into equity in a trading-and-tax-farming conglomerate and replacing silver coin with paper money; …
This paper builds a general-equilibrium model in which a currency crisis is triggered by prospective government deficits and shows that governments finance the resulting fiscal costs mainly through …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 13 Jan 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper investigates whether individuals who have experienced stronger GDP growth over their lifetimes are more likely to trust their national government. The authors — Besley, Dann, and Dray — …
Sorting about 3,700 annual observations from 44 countries over roughly two centuries into four debt-to-GDP buckets, the authors find little relationship between public debt and growth below 90 percent …
Standard optimising consumption models make spending jump on impact when a shock hits, which the data flatly contradict; replacing time-separable utility with habit formation gives consumers a motive …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyPublished Jun 2026
Capatina and Keane build and calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings for U.S. men that incorporates health shocks, endogenous human capital accumulation via learning-by-doing, …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2025
The U.S. Treasury market is the deepest and most liquid fixed-income market in the world, yet in March 2020 it experienced unprecedented dysfunction—widening bid-ask spreads, skyrocketing repo rates, …
By building three nested HANK economies and then constructing a deliberately simple two-agent counterpart for each, this paper argues that what household heterogeneity does to aggregate output can be …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 22 Nov 2025
De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The central questions are: (1) how do …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
Jo and Kim ask two related questions: (1) How do firms use different types of innovation when learning others' technology takes time? (2) How does this process alter the aggregate implications of firm …
This paper extends the "certainty equivalence" shortcut that makes first-order sequence-space methods fast for heterogeneous-agent models to second and third order, showing that these higher-order …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Mar 2013
A survey of why international investors hold a disproportionate share of domestic equities, bonds and bank assets ("home bias") despite the diversification gains foreign holdings would offer, …
PublishedClassicJournal of International Money and FinancePublished Jul 2019
When the sovereign yield in an investor's own country falls, that country's private investors hold more U.S. bonds and tilt the mix toward riskier corporate debt rather than Treasuries. Across 31 …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 26 Sep 2025Published May 2026
This paper asks why job polarization and income inequality are higher in large U.S. cities, and proposes a novel housing-market mechanism that operates independently of — but interacts with — the …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished May 2020
This paper builds a Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian Small Open Model Economy (HANKSOME), calibrated to Hungary's pre-2009 current account boom and sudden-stop reversal, and shows that when …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 27 Mar 2026
Using FEMA disaster declarations matched to SHELDUS property-damage estimates and Call Report data for 1995–2018, this paper finds that weather disasters — even at their most severe — have had modest …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Dec 2025
This paper uses detailed transaction-level data from Canada's new high-value payment system (HVPS) to show how participants save liquidity by strategically exploiting the gridlock resolution …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Nov 2025
This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the interest rate increase. Specifically, it …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 21 Jan 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper develops a novel experimental method to identify the causal contribution of managers to team performance, and uses it to evaluate which characteristics predict managerial effectiveness and …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 26 Aug 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper quantifies the effect of the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges — an intensive two-week economics training program run by the Law and Economics Center from 1976 to 1998 — on the …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 30 Apr 2026
This paper studies linear panel data models where regression coefficients are individual-specific (random coefficients) and regressors may be predetermined — that is, sequentially exogenous rather …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 4 Mar 2026
This paper addresses two related problems: the formal identification of time-inconsistent preferences in dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneous types, and the structural …
This 1997 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by David Cushman and Tao Zha addresses the "exchange rate puzzle" and "price puzzle" that plague conventional recursive (Choleski) VAR studies of monetary …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Jun 2026
This paper develops a revealed-preference theory that uses asset-market data to identify whether investors have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty (PER), a property of non-expected …
This paper investigates how the ideological alignment between knowledge-disseminating institutions and policymakers affects the adoption of evidence-based policies. The core research question is …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 27 Jul 2026
The paper develops a quantitative capital-accumulation model in which capital trades in illiquid markets with asymmetric information — sellers know the quality of their capital but buyers do not. It …
Adding habit formation in consumption to an optimising sticky-price model changes both the IS curve and the Phillips curve, makes the variance of output itself -- not only the output gap -- …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 6 Apr 2021Published Jan 2022
This paper recasts the Aiyagari-Bewley-Huggett incomplete-markets model in continuous time, showing it reduces to a coupled system of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and a Kolmogorov Forward …
In a calibrated stochastic growth model where a continuum of households face partially uninsurable employment risk and can self-insure only by holding aggregate capital, the macroeconomic aggregates …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 3 Jun 2026
The paper establishes a causal link from rising top income shares to reduced net job creation at small firms, working through a bank funding channel rooted in non-homothetic household portfolio …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 12 Jan 2026
The paper provides the most comprehensive cross-country empirical characterisation of effective income tax functions to date, estimating the two-parameter log-linear tax function — pioneered by …
This paper derives a generalized Euler relation for aggregate consumption in incomplete-markets economies with idiosyncratic income risk, and shows that under specific benchmark conditions -- zero …
This 1986 Journal of Political Economy paper by Paul Romer builds a fully specified competitive-equilibrium model of long-run growth in which knowledge is an input to production with increasing …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher's (1933) debt-deflation mechanism as it operates during Sudden Stop crises — episodes characterized by large, abrupt reversals in the current …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 23 Jan 2026
The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in which existing algorithms are shown to …
Using Flow-of-Funds and Survey-of-Consumer-Finances data to reconstruct market-value nominal asset and liability positions -- including their maturity structure -- across U.S. sectors and household …
Surveying and extending the Bailey-Friedman tradition of estimating the welfare cost of inflation, Lucas fits U.S. money-demand data for 1900-1994 and estimates that reducing annual inflation from 10 …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished May 1997
This 1997 Journal of Economic Perspectives essay by Ben Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin is a survey and policy assessment, not an empirical study: it draws on comparative experience across the eight …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 14 May 2026
Blaum, Esposito, and Heise study how supply chain risk — specifically, the risk of unexpected shipping delays caused by ocean weather conditions — affects U.S. manufacturing firms' import sourcing …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Nov 1995
This 1995 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler surveys the "credit channel" of monetary policy transmission — described explicitly as an amplifying mechanism, not an …
This 2022 Journal of Political Economy paper by Mikkel Plagborg-Møller and Christian K. Wolf asks what an external instrument (a proxy correlated with one structural shock and uncorrelated with the …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 23 Jun 2026
Kim and Li study how publicly provided reinsurance affects insurer behavior and market outcomes in health insurance markets where firms face substantial cost uncertainty. The central question is …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 2 Feb 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence that Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) — a remote-sensing-triggered, automated payout scheme for pastoralists — substantially reduces …
PublishedClassicThe Review of Economics and StatisticsPublished May 1939
This short 1939 note by Paul Samuelson formalizes Alvin Hansen's combination of Keynes's income-expenditure multiplier with the accelerator principle of induced private investment.
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic QuarterlyPublished Jan 1993
Using the 30-year bond rate as a real-time signal of the public's long-run inflation expectations, this narrative study of Fed federal funds rate policy from 1979 to 1992 argues that the central …
Reconciling the consensus view that raising short rates fights inflation with the quantity-theoretic evidence that inflation and interest rates move together with money growth in the long run, this …
This paper provides experimental evidence on the intergenerational impacts of secondary education subsidies in a low-income context, leveraging a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in rural …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsOnline 13 Nov 2009Published Mar 2010
This paper develops a solution method for dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium open-economy models with portfolio choice -- extending standard first- and second-order perturbation techniques, which …
Using a new security-level dataset covering $32 trillion in global investment positions, this paper establishes that the currency a bond is denominated in -- not the nationality of its issuer -- is …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 12 May 2026Published Jul 2026
The paper extends the Cole-Kehoe (2000) sovereign rollover crisis model to include international reserves and derives the joint optimal management of sovereign debt and reserves in a small open …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 12 Oct 2021Published Mar 2022
Using the universe of Turkish corporate credit transactions matched to bank balance sheets over 2003-13, this paper shows that an easing of global financial conditions lowers domestic borrowing costs …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Sep 2025
Sanctions are increasingly used as an instrument of economic statecraft, yet their macroeconomic consequences—especially the transitional dynamics and their effects on business cycles—are poorly …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Nov 2025Published Nov 2025
This paper asks whether differences in labor market regulations — specifically payroll taxes and minimum wages — shape countries' comparative advantage in the cross-border provision of labor-intensive …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 24 Jan 2026
This paper investigates whether institutional investors influence the political activities of their portfolio firms, using political action committee (PAC) giving as a window into the broader question …
Plant-level data from Chile and the U.S. show that swings in aggregate investment come almost entirely from changes in how many establishments are having an investment spike, not how big those spikes …
Keynes's idea that shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment drive fluctuations is placed inside a neoclassical model in which firms choose how hard to run their capital; a shock that raises the …
At the end of 1989 Japanese investors held 1.9 percent of their equity abroad, US investors 6.2 percent and British investors 18 percent. Inverting a standard portfolio first-order condition, the …
Israeli inflation jumped from 130% to 400% in October 1983 with no contemporaneous rise in the government deficit; Sargent and Zeira attribute the jump to the government's announced bailout of …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 19 May 2026
Hansen (2025) makes a theoretical case for replacing the conventional cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) and heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors with a specific jackknife variance …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Feb 2026
Calvo and Velasco study an economy where both money and government bonds provide liquidity services, and they show that this shared role implies bond-financed fiscal expansions can be neutral or …
This 2022 Journal of Econometrics paper by Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian develops a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework for reporting inference about an entire vector of structural VAR impulse …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 27 Feb 2026
This paper asks how a currency achieves international status — moving from zero to positive cross-border use — and whether deliberate central bank policy can accelerate that transition. The authors …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 May 2026Published May 2026
Why have immigrant-native wage gaps widened substantially across arrival cohorts in the United States since the 1960s, and why has the speed of wage convergence slowed? The paper argues that the …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly inflation? (2) What is the …
A New Keynesian model is extended with hiring costs that rise in labour market tightness and with real wage rigidity, so that unemployment exists and moves. Under the paper's utility specification the …
This 2019 Journal of Econometrics paper by Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark, and Massimiliano Marcellino develops a computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating large …
This paper argues, using data from five large devaluation episodes (Argentina 2001, Brazil 1999, Korea 1997, Mexico 1994, Thailand 1997), that the large post-devaluation fall in the real exchange rate …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 18 Feb 2026Published Sep 2026
Lewis, Melcangi, and Pilossoph estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using the 2008 Economic Stimulus Act (ESA) rebate payments, deploying Gaussian …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt — specifically, the degree to which a borrowing country's external debt is concentrated among a small number of large lenders — affects …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 15 Jan 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper investigates whether virtual contact — exposure to an outgroup through a documentary film — can promote interethnic harmony, and whether targeting network-central individuals amplifies …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 20 Nov 2025Published Sep 2026
This paper asks how wage inequalities build up over the life cycle when individual wage trajectories are plagued by interruptions in private-sector participation, and when the standard Missing At …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
The paper asks: what are the sources of cross-country differences in aggregate employment across European economies, and which types of worker flows — between employment (E), unemployment (U), and …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyPublished Jun 2026
This paper asks whether an individual's attitude toward risk in the personal domain (choices affecting only oneself) can be linked to that same individual's attitude toward risk in the social domain …
This 1944 Econometrica paper by Franco Modigliani builds three alternative macrostatic systems of equations -- a Keynesian system and two classical variants -- that share identical saving, investment, …
This 1958 Review of Economic Studies paper by James Tobin asks why investors hold non-interest-bearing cash at all, and derives the inverse relationship between aggregate money demand and the interest …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 9 Jun 2026
The paper develops a tractable open-economy New Keynesian model with nominal rigidities and an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) to study how monetary policy and macroprudential policy …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 15 May 2025Published Jul 2025
Does the Great Recession reduce or increase mortality, and what are the welfare implications of incorporating recession-induced mortality changes into standard macroeconomic welfare frameworks?
PublishedClassicThe Journal of FinanceOnline 11 May 2016Published Jun 2016
Emerging-market governments that borrow in their own currency still pay a measurable default premium: stripping out currency risk with cross-currency swaps leaves a "local currency credit spread" …
This 2021 Econometrica paper by José Luis Montiel Olea and Mikkel Plagborg-Møller studies what inference procedure applied researchers should use for local-projection (LP) estimates of impulse …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 30 Apr 2026
This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Mar 2025
This 2025 Journal of Economic Literature survey takes stock of local projections (LP) as a general framework for estimating impulse responses, arguing that LPs "help bridge the divide between current …
This 2021 Econometrica paper by Mikkel Plagborg-Møller and Christian K. Wolf proves that local-projection (LP) and vector-autoregression (VAR) based impulse-response estimators are, at the population …
This 2024 Journal of Econometrics paper by Dake Li, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, and Christian K. Wolf asks a purely practical question rather than proposing a new estimator or identification scheme: when …
Extending the fiscal theory of the price level to long-term government debt, Cochrane shows that the maturity structure of outstanding debt determines whether news about future deficits shows up as …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Jun 2026
This paper uses instrumental-variable local projections (IV-LP) on an unbalanced panel of up to 35 countries over approximately two decades to establish two interconnected findings about fixed-rate …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Sep 2021
This 2021 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control paper by Max Diegel and Dieter Nautz asks whether U.S. long-term inflation expectations respond to monetary policy shocks in a way consistent with a …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 15 May 2026
This paper provides the first long-run causal evidence that a persistently loose stance of monetary policy — defined as extended periods of low interest rates relative to the neutral rate — …
Interpreting the French Revolution through the lens of government-budget-constraint theory, this paper traces how a pre-1789 fiscal crisis, the assignat's evolution from tax-backed money into fiat …
PublishedClassicJournal of the European Economic AssociationOnline 12 Jun 2020Published Apr 2021
A HANK model that is tractable enough to solve on paper, built by grafting Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search frictions onto a New Keynesian economy and then imposing assumptions that make the wealth …
This 2016 Handbook of Macroeconomics chapter by Valerie Ramey surveys how macroeconomists identify structural shocks to monetary policy, fiscal policy, and technology, and how those shocks propagate …
Using PSID panel data and a calibrated heterogeneous-household business-cycle model, this chapter shows that a sufficiently large mass of low-wealth, non-hand-to-mouth households who sharply raise …
PublishedClassicJournal of Financial EconomicsPublished Apr 2021
Macroprudential rules on banks' foreign currency exposure do what they are meant to do -- cross-border FX borrowing by banks falls by roughly a third, and bank stock returns become markedly less …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 23 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper asks why managers matter for firm performance, and specifically whether managers improve productivity by matching workers to better-suited jobs inside firms rather than through supervision, …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 4 Jun 2026
This paper asks whether managers are paid for market power. Bao, De Loecker, and Eeckhout build a general equilibrium model in which firms compete oligopolistically in goods markets (following Atkeson …
Working with a continuous-time New Keynesian model, this paper shows that discretionary monetary policy during a liquidity trap produces deflation and depression that get worse, not better, as prices …
In a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model of an energy-importing small open economy, realistically high MPCs combined with a realistically low elasticity of substitution between energy and other …
This paper addresses the problem of algorithmic manipulation: when consequential decisions are encoded in machine learning algorithms, individuals strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 1 Feb 2026
This paper asks whether heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) stems from temporary circumstances (e.g., transient wealth shocks that tighten liquidity) or persistent personal …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 10 Dec 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper asks whether enrolling in an American public university generates positive net returns for marginal students — those who barely qualify for admission — and whether those returns justify …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 9 Sep 2024Published Aug 2026
This paper develops a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous TFP growth and product and labor market frictions to assess how cross-country differences in market regulation affect …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 17 Jun 2026
This paper asks what market outcomes an information designer — modeled as an internet platform that knows consumers' preferences — can achieve by choosing what information to disclose to competing …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 14 May 2026
This paper by Jaakkola and Wagener addresses a long-standing open problem in the theory of differential games: how to make Markov-perfect equilibria (MPE) well-defined when best-response policy …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 30 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
Anderson, Rebelo, and Wong study the behavior of markups in the retail sector across regions and over time, using a combination of firm-level Compustat data and product-level scanner data from two …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 31 Jul 2026
Across macroeconomics, market power is almost always modelled with the Dixit–Stiglitz (1977) monopolistic-competition framework, in which a seller's markup is pinned down by how substitutable buyers …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 6 Aug 2026
Using Norwegian administrative registries that record wealth and capital income for the whole population, and for each spouse before they marry, this paper documents that people sort at marriage not …
Bisin and Tura study the cultural integration of immigrants in Italy by estimating a structural model of marital matching embedded with intra-household decisions — fertility, socialization of …
This 1996 Journal of Political Economy paper by Michael T. Belongia asks a narrow but consequential question: do the qualitative conclusions of recent monetary economics depend on whether money is …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 26 Sep 2024Published Jan 2025
Do Black taxpayers face higher IRS audit rates than non-Black taxpayers, despite race-blind audit selection? And if so, why — and what would mitigation look like?
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Aug 1998
Bernanke and Mihov (1998, QJE) address a measurement problem in the monetary-VAR literature: the era's dominant methods for extracting a "monetary policy shock" -- Cholesky orderings built around the …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Feb 2005
This 2005 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper by Ben Bernanke, Jean Boivin, and Piotr Eliasz proposes the Factor-Augmented VAR (FAVAR) to address a specific problem with standard small monetary VARs: …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 25 Jul 2026
Using tailored surveys of more than 11,000 US and German households, retail investors, financial professionals, and academic experts, the paper documents the "mental models" people use when reasoning …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper by Bhattacharya, Illanes, and Stillerman makes two contributions to the debate over US antitrust enforcement stringency. First, it documents the price, quantity, and assortment effects of a …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Nov 1980
This 1980 paper by Robert Lucas argues that economic theories should be understood as explicit instructions for building fully articulated, artificial "analogue" economies, and traces business cycle …
Using a new global solution method for a HANK model with counter-cyclical unemployment risk and a zero lower bound, this job-market paper shows that the dominant transmission channel of macroeconomic …
Estimating a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with "sticky expectations" that simultaneously matches households' large immediate marginal propensities to consume and the hump-shaped aggregate …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 21 Feb 2025Published Jul 2025
Do the high marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) estimated in the leading household studies of the 2008 U.S. tax rebates—particularly Parker et al. (2013), which found MPCs of 50–90 percent within …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Aug 2018
This essay argues that the Great Recession exposed how badly representative-agent models capture household consumption behavior, and outlines the emerging Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) …
Can minimum wages improve welfare through efficiency — by correcting monopsony-driven under-employment — and, if so, by how much? What is the optimal minimum wage, and how much of the welfare gain …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 2 Sep 2026
This paper develops and estimates a structural model of ADHD diagnosis to decompose the mechanisms driving the observed 2.3:1 male-to-female diagnostic difference in the United States. The research …
India liberalised foreign equity investment industry by industry in 2001 and 2006, and that staggered timing identifies what the policy did to the *distribution* of capital rather than only its level. …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Nov 2009
In a monopolistic-competition model with heterogeneous firms, a plant's revenue productivity should be equalised within an industry unless the plant faces distortions -- so the dispersion of revenue …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Oct 2025
Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a "misspecified expectations" …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 14 May 2026
This paper introduces a Bayesian Gaussian mixture density regression framework that estimates the complete forecast distribution of inflation — not just selected quantiles — and decomposes the entire …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Jan 2025
This 2025 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control paper by Zhengyang Chen and Victor J. Valcarcel proposes a "rational expectations structural VAR" (RE-SVAR) — a way to embed rational expectations …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ReviewPublished Nov 1968
This paper introduces a four-agent estimated New Keynesian DSGE model—comprising banked simple households, underbanked simple households, firm owners, and bank owners—to examine agent-specific and …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Jan 2026
In a multicountry model with nominal wage rigidities, two sectors (tradable with convex supply, nontradable with flat supply), and free capital mobility, the paper studies optimal monetary policy …
Online FirstThe Economic JournalOnline 26 Jun 2026
The cashless-limiting result in Woodford (1998) — that as money velocity diverges the allocation of a monetary economy converges to that of the corresponding economy without money — is the theoretical …
This paper builds a two-asset Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model matching the empirical joint distribution of income, liquid, and illiquid wealth, and finds that the indirect effect of an …
PublishedClassicBrookings Papers on Economic ActivityPublished Jan 2004
This 2004 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity paper by Ben Bernanke, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian Sack asks whether "nonstandard" monetary policies can still work once the short-term policy rate is …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 15 May 2026
This paper asks whether a central bank should deviate from strict inflation targeting (SIT) to promote financial stability, studying the question in a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with …
This paper builds a tractable small open economy version of the Calvo sticky-price New Keynesian model, shows its equilibrium reduces to a two-equation system in domestic inflation and the output gap …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 26 Jun 2024Published Jul 2025
THANK, a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model built around a single statistic for the cyclicality of income inequality, shows that the conditions needed for HANK-style amplification of …
PublishedClassicJournal of Political Economy MacroeconomicsPublished Mar 2023
This paper builds an open-economy heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model in which households differ not only in income and wealth but in their real integration (tradable vs. nontradable …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 23 Feb 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper develops a New Keynesian small open economy model with endogenous sovereign default — the NK-Default framework — and uses it to study the interplay between monetary policy and sovereign …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 15 Sep 2025Published Aug 2026
This paper analyzes how monetary policy should respond to a long-run natural interest rate that can drift permanently — following a bounded random walk with upper bound 3 percent and lower bound 0 …
This paper shows that monetary policy affects aggregate consumption not only through the standard income and substitution channels but also through three redistribution channels -- earnings …
Against fears that electronic money will erode central banks' monopoly over a monetary base and so undermine their power to control inflation, Woodford argues that monetary policy works through …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper studies the design of monetary policy in a multi-sector small open economy with domestic input-output linkages and cross-border production networks, under nominal price rigidities in …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Aug 1988
This 1988 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by William Poole is a survey and analytical essay -- not a structural estimation exercise with a formal identification strategy -- that draws lessons …
This 2013 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by S. Mahdi Barakchian and Christopher Crowe argues that the standard toolkit for identifying monetary policy shocks -- recursive VARs …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Feb 2000
Estimating a forward-looking Federal Reserve policy rule separately for 1960-79 and 1979-96, this paper finds that the Fed let real short-term rates fall as expected inflation rose before Volcker, but …
This 2001 American Economic Review paper by Athanasios Orphanides asks how large the informational problem is when Taylor-type interest rate rules are implemented with the data actually available to …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Apr 2004
Re-estimating the Clarida-Galí-Gertler forward-looking Fed policy rule using only the real-time Greenbook forecasts available to the FOMC at the time, rather than revised after-the-fact data, this …
This chapter in the 1999 Handbook of Macroeconomics (Volume 1) by Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles Evans surveys and unifies the VAR-based literature on identifying monetary policy …
This 2001 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Kenneth N. Kuttner addresses a basic errors-in-variables problem in earlier event studies of monetary policy and interest rates (notably Cook and Hahn …
PublishedClassicAmerican Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsPublished Jan 2015
This 2015 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Mark Gertler and Peter Karadi uses a "proxy SVAR" — a structural VAR identified with external instruments rather than timing restrictions — …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jun 2026Published Jun 2026
This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve's historical response, and evaluates …
This paper asks how much of the HANK literature's message about aggregate behaviour survives in a far simpler model, and answers by first identifying exactly what heterogeneity does.
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished May 1994
This 1994 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper by Mark Gertler and Simon Gilchrist asks whether small manufacturing firms bear a disproportionate share of the manufacturing decline that follows …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 2 Jun 2026
This paper examines optimal monetary policy under discretion when the loss function is asymmetric — placing greater weight on employment shortfalls than on equivalently sized employment strength. The …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Oct 2021
This 2021 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control paper by Zhengyang Chen and Victor Valcarcel shows that the Wu-Xia (2016) shadow federal funds rate — a standard modern-sample proxy for the stance …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 24 Dec 2025
The paper builds a discrete-time DSGE model with Calvo sticky prices in which the public sector has two feedback rules that can hit corners, generating endogenous shifts between an "orthodox" regime …
PublishedClassicJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 15 Apr 2005Published Apr 2005
Cochrane argues that the fiscal theory of the price level rests on a valuation equation, not a budget constraint -- nominal government debt is priced like a claim on future government surpluses, …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 21 May 2026
The paper studies the euro area interbank money markets during the global financial crisis (2007–09) and sovereign debt crisis (2010–15), documenting four empirical regularities and building a …
This 1992 American Economic Review paper by Benjamin Friedman and Kenneth Kuttner asks whether money remains a reliable indicator of future nominal and real activity, and whether the predictive …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 22 May 2026
When employers face a trade-off between growing large and paying low wages — that is, when they have monopsony power — some productive employers will decide to acquire fewer customers, forgo sales, …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
Minoiu, Zarutskie, and Zlate ask whether participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency facility launched in mid-2020 to channel credit to small and mid-sized …
PublishedClassicThe Review of Economics and StatisticsPublished May 2023
This paper shows that New Keynesian models with frictionless labor supply cannot simultaneously match three well-established empirical facts -- high marginal propensities to consume, low marginal …
This paper, written within a year of the publication of Keynes's General Theory, asks how much of Keynes's theory is genuinely new by building a small formal model of the "classical" theory of income …
This 1997 Econometric Theory paper by Michael Binder and M. Hashem Pesaran is a purely theoretical and computational contribution to solving multivariate linear rational expectations (RE) models -- it …
The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the empirical observation of a sharp, simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 18 Feb 2026
This paper investigates two related empirical questions in the context of the historic surge in US inflation in late 2021 and 2022: (1) What narratives—causal stories—do people invoke to explain why …
This 1965 American Economic Review paper by Peter Diamond extends Samuelson's pure consumption-loan model by adding a produced, durable capital good, so that people can provide for retirement either …
Winberry, Auclert, Rognlie, and Straub extend the Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian framework from households to firms, building a canonical heterogeneous-firm model with financial frictions in which …
PublishedClassicAmerican Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsPublished Jan 2009
Lucas's 1995 Nobel Prize lecture asks why changes in the quantity of money seem, from David Hume onward, to be both neutral "units changes" in the long run and yet a source of real stimulus or …
This 2005 Journal of Political Economy paper by Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (CEE) builds and estimates a general-equilibrium model to answer a specific question: what combination of frictions …
Complementing Friedman and Schwartz's monetary account of the Great Depression, Bernanke argues that the banking panics and pervasive debtor insolvency of 1930-33 independently raised the real cost of …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 19 Mar 2026
This paper proves a central limit theorem (CLT) for network formation models with strategic interactions and homophilous agents, addressing a foundational inferential gap in the econometrics of large …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
This paper estimates the effect of oil price fluctuations on US banking variables using a Bayesian SVAR with sign restrictions following Baumeister and Hamilton (2019). Oil market shocks that lead to …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Aug 2018
This 2018 Journal of Economic Perspectives essay by Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Mathias Trabandt is a perspective/survey defense of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 25 Oct 2025Published Jun 2026
Measuring the welfare cost of inflation requires specifying a money demand function, a definition of money, and an approach to consumer surplus; existing estimates vary widely because these choices …
Studies how governments finance the fiscal costs of "twin" currency-and-banking crises and shows that debt devaluation and implicit or explicit fiscal reform, not just money printing, can explain why …
Standard analyses of unilateral carbon taxes ignore the spatial reallocation of economic activity induced by the policy, leading them to overstate the costs and understate the effectiveness of such …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyPublished Jun 2026
This paper uses a novel longitudinal administrative dataset drawn from U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Social Security Administration (SSA) records to characterize income dynamics and the …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 19 Sep 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper asks how to optimally design a Financial Stability Fund (Fund) for a union of sovereign countries that must simultaneously (i) prevent sovereign default, (ii) provide risk-sharing and …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 15 Jun 2026
Acemoglu, Huttenlocher, Ozdaglar, and Siderius develop a two-sided platform model to study the welfare consequences of digital advertising as an online business model. The platform intermediates …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 12 May 2026
This paper revisits the open rule legislative bargaining model of Baron and Ferejohn (1989) — the dominant workhorse model in political economy for analyzing how legislatures divide a surplus — and …
Against Chamley's (1986) and Lucas's (1990) result that the optimal long-run capital income tax is zero, this paper shows that in a Bewley-type incomplete-markets economy with uninsured idiosyncratic …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 2 Mar 2026
This paper derives asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when the payoffs associated with some choices are only partially identified. The research question is: …
Studying optimal Ramsey fiscal and monetary policy in a sticky-price production economy where the government can tax only distortingly and can issue only nominal, non-state-contingent bonds, …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 1 Apr 2025Published Jul 2025
The Chamley-Judd result (1986) states that the optimal long-run capital income tax rate is zero in representative-agent models. This paper shows that introducing heterogeneous agents — specifically, …
Using a new sequence-space method for characterizing the long-run ("Ramsey") steady state of dynamic optimal-taxation problems, this paper finds that for standard calibrations of Aiyagari (1995)-style …
An analytically tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model in which a utilitarian planner's optimal monetary policy departs from the representative-agent benchmark because interest rates …
This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with wage rigidity, showing that a discretionary utilitarian planner's desire to redistribute …
In an optimizing-agent model where both wages and prices are set in staggered Calvo contracts, monetary policy cannot reach the allocation that would prevail under fully flexible wages and prices, …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2025
Central banks must set policy under uncertainty about how private-sector expectations form, which changes how monetary policy transmits to output and inflation. This paper studies optimal …
This paper characterizes optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules in a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model and finds that a "dual mandate" central bank's optimal targeting rule is identical …
This paper studies how commuter preferences over wait times, travel times, and transfers should shape the design of urban bus networks, using the world's largest Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system — …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 10 Aug 2024Published Oct 2024
Grossman, Helpman, and Sabal ask what market failures arise in vertical supply chains with multiple production tiers, limited (non-anonymous) supply networks, arms-length transactions, and recurrent …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
This paper asks whether and how optimal income taxation should change when firms have market power. The question is motivated by the documented rise in economy-wide markups since 1980, which has …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 29 Jul 2026
This paper addresses a practical gap in the inference literature for sequential and adaptive experiments: while the design of such experiments has been studied extensively, there is little theory …
David Cass's 1965 paper elaborates Frank Ramsey's 1928 optimum-saving problem inside Robert Solow's aggregative growth model, showing that maximizing the discounted stream of utility from per-capita …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 2 Feb 2026
Schmidt and von Wangenheim develop a dynamic model of organizational change in which workers have reference-dependent preferences — specifically loss aversion and social comparisons — to explain …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 25 Jan 2025Published Dec 2025
Third-party loan guarantees—in which a fee-charging guarantor formally guarantees a bank loan and conducts its own due diligence on the borrower—are present in approximately 10% of Chinese bank loans …
PublishedClassicPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering SciencesOnline 13 Nov 2014Published Nov 2014
Written explicitly to get mathematicians interested in macroeconomics, this review collects the systems of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations that arise once a macro model tracks a whole …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 23 Jun 2026
The paper introduces the concept of "passive quantitative easing" (passive QE): a deliberate reduction in government debt issuance that lowers anticipated future bond supply and reduces long-term …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 19 Jan 2026Published Sep 2026
This paper examines how anticipated changes in patent term affect R&D and innovation, using the U.S. ratification of the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement in 1995 …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 6 Oct 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper constructs an instrumental variable for technology news shocks using patent applications, relaxing all identifying assumptions traditionally used in the news-shock literature. The IV is the …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Feb 2026
This paper examines how the degree of user anonymity built into a central bank digital currency (CBDC) affects bank lending decisions and what this implies for the optimal design of CBDC anonymity. …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 3 Sep 2026
This paper investigates the mechanisms behind peer effects in the classroom using exogenous variation in study disruptions generated by the 2010 Maule mega-earthquake in Chile (magnitude 8.8, the …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 5 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper investigates whether exposure to a larger share of female peers during an MBA program causally affects the gender gap in senior corporate leadership positions. The research question is …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 15 Jun 2026
This paper develops a general nonparametric model of discrete choice in which peers influence agents through two distinct channels: (1) the set of alternatives an agent considers (consideration set …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Feb 1994
Using simple two-variable autoregressions of consumption and GNP, and of dividends and stock prices, Cochrane shows that a shock to GNP (or to stock prices) that leaves consumption (or dividends) …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 4 Nov 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper investigates two interrelated questions about historical banking crises: (1) whether bank losses during banking crises are primarily temporary or permanent in nature, and (2) whether policy …
This paper builds a dynamic, non-stochastic model of the "optimal" fiscal control of aggregate demand, deriving the time path of aggregate employment (or "utilization") that a policymaker who cares …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 3 Jun 2026
This paper reports on the MOBIS experiment, a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) implementing a multi-modal Pigovian transport pricing scheme in urban areas of German- and French-speaking …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Oct 2025Published Oct 2025
Should national governments redistribute income to residents of poor areas through place-based transfers, or should redistribution rely solely on place-blind (income-only) taxes? The longstanding view …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 17 Feb 2026
Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether the inability to commit (discretion …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 25 Sep 2025Published May 2026
This paper combines a hand-collected archival data set of over 800 personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Federal Reserve officials from 1933 to 2016 with a narrative structural VAR to …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Oct 2025Published Oct 2025
Do individual political views shape firm behavior and labor market outcomes in the private sector? Specifically, do business owners sort copartisan workers into their firms, and does employers' …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 28 Jul 2026
This paper asks how population aging changes the distribution of income and wealth, using a continuous-time overlapping-generations model in which persistent growth in per capita income is sustained …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 11 May 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper studies rainmaking as an instrumental religious belief. The central research question is: why do people believe that prayer can bring rain, even though it does not work?
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 10 Sep 2024Published Jan 2025
Maxted, Laibson, and Moll study fiscal and monetary policy in a partial-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model in which homeowners have present-biased time preferences (Instantaneous Gratification …
PublishedClassicCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public PolicyPublished Dec 1995
Woodford shows that the price level remains determinate even under two forms of radical money-supply endogeneity long thought to destroy monetary control -- a central-bank interest-rate peg and …
The 2009 Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act barred credit card lenders from discretionarily raising borrowers' interest rates in response to new information. Using the …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished May 2026
This paper provides the first integrated empirical analysis of how bank credit supply shocks propagate through both the production network and the financial network simultaneously, using the universe …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper studies how public sector workers balance professional motivations against private economic concerns, using arrest decisions by Dallas Police Department (DPD) officers as the empirical …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
This paper asks whether Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data can be efficiently integrated into medium-scale DSGE models, and whether models with imperfectly rational expectations based on …
Argues that the 1997 Asian currency crisis was driven by large prospective government deficits -- the anticipated future fiscal cost of bailing out failing banking systems -- rather than by the …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Jun 2026
This paper implements and evaluates methods for constructing quality-adjusted price indices from item-level retail scanner data at scale — across hundreds of product categories, heterogeneously …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 8 Jun 2026
This paper asks three questions about supply-side climate policies in the oil market: how do oil companies respond to production-based taxes; what are the aggregate effects of such taxes on global CO2 …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2025
Standard measures of capital allocative efficiency—based on the dispersion of the average revenue product of capital (ARPK)—are severely biased when capital utilization is endogenous. When utilization …
This review organizes the quantitative macroeconomics literature on household heterogeneity around the "standard incomplete markets" model, asking what sources of individual risk matter most, what …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 29 Jul 2026
Drawing on the recent experience of seven advanced-economy central banks, this paper offers the first cross-country assessment of quantitative tightening (QT) — the unwinding of bond holdings …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 17 Sep 2026
Ball and Kattwinkel study quota mechanisms — linking mechanisms that impose aggregate constraints on agents' reports across multiple decision problems — and provide the first theoretical analysis …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jun 2026
This paper asks whether racial differences in labor income can simultaneously explain both the crime gap and the wealth gap between Black and White individuals in the United States. The authors build …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 5 May 2026
This paper studies racial disparities in federal criminal sentencing by analyzing abnormal bunching in the distribution of crack-cocaine amounts recorded at sentencing. The identifying variation comes …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
This paper estimates the racial/ethnic gap in realized housing returns using administrative data on individual housing transactions, and investigates the mechanisms that generate those gaps. The …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper addresses a foundational gap in the random utility model (RUM) literature: existing axiomatizations by Falmagne (1978) and McFadden and Richter (1990) assume that whenever a menu is …
This 1961 Econometrica paper by John Muth proposes that economic expectations should be modeled as essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory itself -- so that, for a …
Singh and Venkataramani ask whether resource scarcity causes discriminatory rationing of health care by patient race, with patient death as the starkest possible outcome of biased allocation …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 7 May 2026
This paper estimates the European Central Bank's loss function directly rather than inferring it from a reaction function, using the tone of the Governing Council's press conference introductory …
This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations — beliefs that overweight the representativeness of recent data, formalized as $E_t^\theta(A_{t+1}) = E_t(A_{t+1}) + \theta[E_t(A_{t+1}) - …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Jan 2007
The standard New Keynesian model implies that stabilising inflation also stabilises the welfare-relevant output gap -- a property the authors name the "divine coincidence" and trace to the absence of …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 30 Apr 2026
This paper uses laboratory experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of two liquidity management tools — redemption fees and redemption gates — in reducing runs on money market funds (MMFs), …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Dec 2025
Governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) routinely intervene in agricultural markets — procuring grain and redistributing it to poor households — in response to food price …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 3 May 2021Published Jun 2021
Because global firms raise capital through subsidiaries incorporated in tax havens, official residency-based statistics attribute those securities to the haven rather than to the parent's country; …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 28 Jan 2026
This paper provides a contract-theoretic rationale for the special liquidity regulation of bank credit lines—a form of lending that has received little attention in the regulatory literature despite …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 15 Sep 2026
This paper quantitatively assesses the consequences of jurisdictional competition in the US life insurance industry, an $8 trillion market. The central question is whether competition between state …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 26 Sep 2025Published May 2026
This paper studies how Indonesia's Islamic education sector responded to one of the largest state-driven mass schooling expansions in history — the SD INPRES program (Sekolah Dasar Presidential …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 10 Aug 2026
Abramson and Van Nieuwerburgh study Rent Guarantee Insurance (RGI), a product in which an insurer pays the landlord on behalf of a tenant who defaults on rent due to a negative income or health …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 4 Nov 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper establishes a causal connection between the opioid epidemic and the political realignment toward the Republican Party in the United States from the mid-2000s through 2022. The …
Writing for the 30th anniversary of Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz's *A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960*, Lucas argues the book's lasting contribution is a normative one -- it …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyPublished Jun 2026
Gay, Gobbi, and Goñi test Le Play's (1875) hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France's early fertility decline by abolishing impartible inheritance. In 1793, a series of decrees …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 25 Nov 2025
This paper investigates how rising house prices affect the composition of household debt portfolios in Sweden during 2010–2014. Specifically, the authors ask whether homeowners who experience housing …
This paper builds a flexible-price model in which money's liquidity premium keeps real interest rates from falling when idiosyncratic risk rises, so money reduces investment rather than stabilizing …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 25 Sep 2021Published May 2022
This paper shows that spikes in idiosyncratic risk premiums can generate quantitatively plausible recessions -- with employment, consumption, and investment all falling together -- because the risk …
This paper identifies and corrects a fundamental flaw in the standard methodology for testing efficient risk-sharing when shocks are covariate (affecting common prices rather than only individual …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
Basso and Rachedi investigate how robot adoption influences inflation dynamics — specifically, whether the surge in automation during the 2000s and 2010s can explain the muted sensitivity of inflation …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 2 Apr 2026Published Aug 2026
This paper develops new estimation and inference tools for the coefficient on a covariate of interest in large panel regressions whose unobserved heterogeneity has an interactive fixed effects …
The paper proposes and analyzes real rate rules — monetary policy rules of the form i_t = r_t + φπ_t (φ > 1), where r_t is the current-period real interest rate observed via TIPS yields or inflation …
Letting a fraction of consumers and price setters replace optimisation with a backward-looking rule of thumb adds endogenous persistence to output and inflation, changes how shocks travel through a …
This 1977 Journal of Political Economy paper by Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott argues that optimal control theory -- the standard technique proposed for macroeconomic stabilization policy -- is not …
This 1983 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Robert Barro and David Gordon shows that a monetary authority acting with full discretion each period will generate more inflation on average than one …
The paper addresses two questions about government debt rollover. First, a positive question: what is the maximum ratio of government bonds to capital that can be sustained forever without any primary …
This paper asks why so much labor stays in low-productivity agriculture in developing countries, and treats the county-by-county rollout of China's New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) between 2009 and …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 27 Sep 2025Published Jul 2026
Itskhoki and Mukhin develop a tractable open-economy model with financial market segmentation — in which only the government sector (including state banks and exporting firms) can intermediate …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 19 Jun 2026
Grigoryan (2021) develops a unified general-equilibrium framework that jointly models school assignment mechanisms and the housing market to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of …
Bergemann, Heumann, and Wang study consumer surplus when a monopolist simultaneously engages in second-degree price discrimination (screening consumers within each market segment through …
This paper investigates whether intermediaries in the U.S. municipal bond market strategically exploit product design to increase search frictions and, through that channel, capture rents. …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 23 Feb 2026Published Sep 2026
This paper addresses nonresponse bias in surveys — the distortion that arises when survey participants differ systematically from nonparticipants in ways that correlate with the survey's outcomes of …
A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which a government that must roll over one-period debt can be forced into default purely because lenders expect it -- and a characterisation of …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 1 Apr 2025Published Dec 2025
This paper asks whether sovereign debt crises can be self-fulfilling — triggered by lenders' expectations of default rather than by weak fiscal fundamentals alone — and whether such crises are …
PublishedClassicCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public PolicyPublished Dec 1994
Surveying the evidence for monetary, technology, oil-price, and credit shocks as drivers of postwar U.S. business cycles, Cochrane finds that none of these popular observable candidates robustly …
A New Neoclassical Synthesis model of the US economy with seven structural shocks and a full set of real and nominal frictions is estimated on seven quarterly series by Bayesian methods, and shown to …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 12 Mar 2026
Should monetary policy deviate from price stability to address redistributive concerns in an economy with heterogeneous agents? The paper jointly solves for optimal monetary and fiscal policy under …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 22 Sep 2026
This paper examines how two types of communication about a minority group affect discriminatory behavior: (i) horizontal communication between majority-group members, and (ii) top-down communication …
PublishedClassicAmerican Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsPublished Jan 2011
This paper works through a series of simple, analytically solvable New Keynesian models to show that the size of the government-spending multiplier depends almost entirely on the monetary policy …
PublishedClassicJournal of Applied EconometricsPublished Jan 2019
This 2019 Journal of Applied Econometrics paper by José Luis Montiel Olea and Mikkel Plagborg-Møller addresses a practical problem in applied time-series econometrics: which "simultaneous" (joint, …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 26 Jun 2026
This paper proposes a model of skill-replacing routine-biased technological change (SR-RBTC) to explain patterns in U.S. bottom-half wage inequality that standard RBTC models cannot account for.
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2025
High-skilled immigration policy frictions—particularly the H-1B visa lottery, fixed annual cap, and associated compliance costs—impose well-known burdens on firms, but their disproportionate impact on …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 15 Oct 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper estimates the long-term causal effects of the Kampung Improvement Program (KIP), one of the world's largest slum upgrading programs, on urban development in Jakarta, Indonesia. KIP ran from …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
Why did the 2021–2023 US inflation surge end in a soft landing — disinflation without a major recession — while the Volcker disinflation of 1979–1987 required substantial output losses? And was the …
PublishedClassicQuantitative EconomicsOnline 1 Nov 2020Published Nov 2020
A solution method for discrete-time heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate risk that extends Reiter's perturbation approach by compressing the state space after the no-aggregate-risk stationary …
Treating the cross-sectional distribution as an explicit state variable turns a heterogeneous-agent economy into a single, low-dimensional "Master Equation," and this paper shows that its first- and …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Mar 2009
This paper proposes a numerical method for solving general-equilibrium models with a continuum of heterogeneous agents that combines projection (a fully nonlinear, high-dimensional representation of …
A frictionless multi-country model implies no cross-country correlation between long-run savings and investment rates, so the Feldstein-Horioka finding really is a puzzle for it. Neither limited …
In a calibrated neoclassical growth model with distortionary labor and capital taxes, an ARRA-style government spending increase produces short-run net-present-value fiscal multipliers above one, but …
This 1961 American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings essay by Karl Brunner argues that evaluating monetary policy's effectiveness requires separately and rigorously assessing two distinct …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)Published Oct 1981
Sargent and Wallace show that even in a fully monetarist economy, a monetary authority that tightens money today while an independent fiscal authority's deficits are taken as given must finance the …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 31 Jan 2022Published Jul 2022
Two centuries of monthly prices for 1,552 foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York, matched bond-by-bond to a new archive of defaults and haircuts, show that external sovereign …
PublishedClassicHandbook of International EconomicsPublished Jan 2014
A Handbook survey that organises the economics of sovereign debt around a single benchmark limited-commitment model, then shows how each strand of the literature -- debt overhang, equilibrium default, …
A sovereign that can still hold assets abroad after defaulting can always replace any reputation-based loan contract with a sequence of cash-in-advance insurance contracts collateralised out of the …
The first present-value estimates of creditor losses for all 180 sovereign debt restructurings with foreign banks and bondholders between 1978 and 2010 -- average haircut 37%, with half the cases …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 11 Jun 2026
Delventhal and Parkhomenko build a quantitative spatial model of the United States to study how the rise of telecommuting reshapes the distribution of residents, jobs, and housing costs across and …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished May 2022
A country's macroprudential stance looks irrelevant to portfolio flows on average, but that average hides the tails. Countries with tighter ex-ante regulation see larger bond and equity outflows in …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Apr 2026
This paper investigates the macroeconomic consequences of widespread just-in-time (JIT) inventory management, documenting a fundamental trade-off: JIT raises firm profitability and reduces micro-level …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jun 2026
This paper asks whether a labor market with search-and-matching frictions and firms producing under decreasing returns to labor is better characterized by in-house hiring with intra-firm wage …
This 1983 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Guillermo Calvo builds a model of staggered price-setting that is more analytically tractable than the earlier discrete-contract-length models of …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 17 Jun 2026
Mastrorocco and Teso study how the internal organization of a state evolves during national development, framing state capacity as an organizational — specifically a principal-agent — problem. Using a …
Against the standard narrative that only monetary policy errors could have caused or prevented the 1970s US inflation, Sims documents dramatic swings in US fiscal stance over the period and shows, in …
Staggered price-setting was long hoped to turn a short spell of exogenous price stickiness into a long spell of endogenous stickiness, and so into persistent output movements after a monetary shock. …
This paper shows that if consumers maximize expected lifetime utility subject to an intertemporal budget constraint under uncertain future earnings -- the standard life cycle-permanent income model -- …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
This paper documents a puzzle for canonical limited-participation models: when U.S. stock market participation rose from 31.6% to 53% between 1989 and 2007—a period also characterized by the Great …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 31 Aug 2026
Survey forecasts depart from rational expectations in ways that look contradictory: consensus forecasts under-react to news, individual forecasts of macroeconomic variables tend to over-react, and …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ReviewPublished Sep 1992
Gaggl, Gorry, and vom Lehn document that services sectors produce a rising share of output in both of the US production networks they study — the input-output network for intermediate inputs and the …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 7 Nov 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper asks how cities grow in the process of structural transformation — specifically, whether urban expansion occurs at the intensive margin (higher density within a fixed area) or the extensive …
By replacing the cross-sectional distribution with low-dimensional current prices as the state variable and letting agents learn equilibrium price dynamics from simulated paths -- while still …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 2 Jul 2026
The paper introduces a survey instrument — fielded in the Copenhagen Life Panel in January 2021 to about 10,900 employed Danes aged 20-65 — that measures how much earnings risk workers subjectively …
A standard small-open-economy business-cycle model, augmented with a collateral constraint that caps total debt -- including within-period working-capital loans -- at a fraction of the market value of …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Dec 2025Published Dec 2025
How do workforce composition (labor supply), labor demand, and minimum wage policy jointly determine the wage distribution in imperfectly competitive labor markets, and what were the quantitative …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Nov 1995
This 1995 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by Frederic Mishkin is the introduction to a JEP symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism, and it contains no original data or estimation of …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Feb 2026Published Feb 2026
This paper studies the efficiency of self-enforced relational agreements in manufacturing supply chains when sellers have market power and contracts cannot be externally enforced. The setting is …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper provides the first empirical evidence of talent hoarding in organizations — the practice whereby managers deliberately suppress workers' internal mobility to retain productive team members, …
PublishedClassicReview of Financial StudiesOnline 7 Apr 2020Published Feb 2021
Identifying US monetary policy shocks from daily moves in five-year Treasury futures around FOMC announcements, this paper shows that during the unconventional-policy years those shocks largely …
PublishedClassicInternational Journal of Central BankingPublished Mar 2018
Does corporate income taxation raise or lower corporate leverage? The canonical Modigliani-Miller (1963) view holds that the interest tax deduction makes debt more attractive, predicting a positive …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 19 Nov 2025
The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal funds rate (FFR) and cannot assess …
PublishedClassicThe Review of Economics and StatisticsPublished Aug 1957
Robert Solow's 1957 paper proposes a simple method for separating shifts in the aggregate production function ("technical change," broadly defined) from movements along it caused by capital …
Online FirstJournal of Economic GrowthOnline 29 Jul 2026
Since the mid-1990s computing revolution, advanced economies have shown a cluster of regularities — a decade-long productivity boom followed by a slowdown below trend, a sharply declining labour …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 21 May 2026
This paper estimates the causal effect of technology and knowledge transfers on early industrial development using the Sino-Soviet Alliance of the 1950s as a natural experiment. Between 1950 and 1957, …
This paper uses randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in multiple countries to study whether the economic environment — specifically the level of inflation — affects how agents learn from …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Mar 2026
This paper measures and models the role of temporary layoffs (TL) in cyclical unemployment dynamics, motivating the analysis by the extraordinary surge in temporary layoffs at the onset of the …
Estimated Taylor-type policy rules typically find the Fed adjusts the funds rate only 20-30 percent of the way to its desired level each quarter, widely read as deliberate "interest rate smoothing" -- …
PublishedClassicInternational Journal of Central BankingPublished Mar 2013
This 2013 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Canlin Li and Min Wei asks whether changes in the supply of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) affect nominal …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 21 Apr 2026
Kwon and Roth develop econometric tests for the "sharp null of full mediation": the hypothesis that a treatment D affects an outcome Y only through a specified mechanism (or set of mechanisms) M, with …
PublishedClassicInternational Journal of Central BankingPublished Dec 2020
This 2020 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Lucas Hafemann and Peter Tillmann studies how ECB monetary policy transmits to the euro area as a whole and, separately, across individual …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 26 May 2026
This paper examines how the architecture of social networks shapes the success or failure of technology diffusion when adoption decisions exhibit strategic complementarities. The research question is: …
This 2014 Journal of Econometrics paper by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland asks whether Barnett's (1980) decades-old critique of simple-sum monetary aggregation -- that adding up the nominal values …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 15 Apr 2024
This paper sets Milton Friedman's 1953 essay "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" side by side with Harry Johnson's near-identically titled 1969 essay, argument by argument, and concludes that …
Extending a New Keynesian model to give the central bank's balance sheet a genuine role in equilibrium determination, the authors distinguish three independent dimensions of monetary policy -- the …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 13 Apr 2026
This paper investigates how white migration out of the postbellum South diffused Confederate culture and entrenched racial norms across the United States during a critical juncture of westward …
PublishedClassicSveriges Riksbank Economic ReviewPublished Nov 2000
Summarizing Sargent's "The Conquest of American Inflation," this essay compares the popular rational-expectations "triumph of natural-rate theory" account of the rise and fall of U.S. inflation …
PublishedClassicSveriges Riksbank Economic ReviewPublished Nov 2000
Introducing Thomas Sargent's monograph "The Conquest of American Inflation" to a central-bank audience, this short essay contrasts the two standard accounts of the postwar rise and fall of inflation …
This 2001 NBER Macroeconomics Annual paper by Marvin Barth and Valerie Ramey tests whether monetary policy operates through a supply-side "cost channel" -- in which a monetary contraction raises …
This paper estimates the shadow cost that consumers assign to pledging their primary residence as collateral, using administrative loan application and performance data from the U.S. Federal Disaster …
US court rulings in Republic of Argentina v. NML Capital moved the market-implied probability that Argentina would default on its restructured bonds without carrying any news about the Argentine …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper asks how changes in the composition (not the size) of Chinese local government debt influence bank risk-taking, credit allocation between privately owned enterprises (POEs) and state-owned …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished Mar 2005
On a panel of bilateral gross cross-border equity transactions among 14 countries from 1989 to 1996, a gravity specification with market capitalisations, distance and a measure of market …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 28 Jul 2026
Textbook Mundell–Fleming logic says a weaker local currency should be expansionary through net exports, yet in emerging market economies (EMEs) a stronger US dollar has been consistently associated …
The strength of the US dollar, the size of covered interest parity deviations and the growth of dollar-denominated cross-border bank lending move together in what the authors call a triangular …
Howard and Shao document a new empirical regularity in U.S. internal migration: the t-year interstate migration rate — defined as the share of people living in a different state than they did t years …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 11 May 2026
This paper develops a dynamic principal-agent model in which a principal seeks to select exactly one project from a stream of possibilities emerging over time, while a biased agent (who wants any …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 13 Jan 2025Published Apr 2025
What do U.S. physicians earn, how is that earnings variation structured across geography and specialty, and how much does government healthcare payment policy shape those earnings and — through them — …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 29 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
This paper develops an economic theory of competitive equilibrium with indivisible goods that accommodates both complementarities and substitutabilities. The central research question is: what …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 10 Aug 2026
This paper studies the intergenerational effects of education policy on crime, asking whether a compulsory schooling reform that reduced crime among those directly exposed also reduced crime among …
This paper is a comment on Moretti (2021b), which studied agglomeration effects for innovation by testing whether the size of technology clusters causes patenting. The original paper (M21) used US …
Masten and Poirier demonstrate a previously unrecognized asymmetry in the coefficient stability literature: depending on how omitted variable bias is measured, it can be substantially easier for …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 1 Oct 2025Published May 2026
This paper asks whether racial concordance between patients and medical providers — specifically, whether Black patients are treated by Black physicians — improves use of preventive care and reduces …
PublishedJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 26 Nov 2025Published Dec 2025
Using 2001-2022 annual data on U.S. commercial and savings banks matched with county-level demographic data, this paper shows that banks operating in areas with older populations—measured by the …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Sep 2026
Two literatures predict opposite things about what happens to a country's pollution when it opens its equity market to foreign investors. Foreign institutional investors have been shown to push firms …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 27 Mar 2026Published Jul 2026
Greenberg, Wasserman, and Weber (2024/2026) ask whether men negatively respond—in terms of job performance, behavior, and workplace perceptions—when women first enter an exclusively male occupation. …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 24 Apr 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper studies the causal effects of mandatory profit-sharing on workers and firms using a quasi-experimental design arising from a 1990 French reform that lowered the eligibility threshold for …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 26 Dec 2024Published Apr 2025
This paper asks whether relieving downstream medical debt — debt that has been sold to third-party debt collectors — causes improvements in financial outcomes, mental and physical health, and …
PublishedClassicBrookings Papers on Economic ActivityPublished Sep 2011
This 2011 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity paper by Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen evaluates the effect of the Federal Reserve's large-scale purchases of long-term Treasuries …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 11 Feb 2024
Using closures of U.S. bank regulatory offices between 2002 and 2013 as difference-in-differences shocks to the physical proximity between supervisors and the community banks they oversee, the paper …
This paper studies the abrupt endings of four post-World War I European hyperinflations -- in Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Germany -- arguing that each stopped suddenly and at a comparatively low …
This paper documents and quantifies an "environmental bias" embedded in the U.S. corporate income tax code: CO2-intensive ("dirty") firms systematically face lower effective tax rates than clean …
This 1985 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Rajnish Mehra and Edward C. Prescott documents that over 1889-1978 U.S. equities earned about seven percent real return per year on average while …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished Dec 2001
Capital flows were tracked continuously, but the stocks of foreign assets and liabilities they accumulate into were largely unmeasured outside a handful of industrial countries. This paper builds …
This 2002 American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings essay by John Cochrane and Monika Piazzesi proposes a high-frequency alternative to monthly-VAR identification of monetary policy shocks, …
This 2012 Economic Journal paper estimates how the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programmes of 2008-2011 lowered longer-term US Treasury yields, disaggregating the total effect within a …
PublishedClassicInternational Journal of Central BankingPublished Mar 2011
This 2011 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Gagnon, Raskin, Remache, and Sack provides the founding empirical assessment of the Federal Reserve's first large-scale asset purchase …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic Dynamics and ControlPublished Jan 2023
This paper builds a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets, capital, and nominal price/wage rigidities -- with a government budget constraint specified in nominal terms …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 19 Jan 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper tests whether a light-touch behavioral intervention targeting aspirations can produce persistent economic effects on a poor rural population. The research question is whether changing how …
This 2003 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Edward Nelson (Bank of England) asks whether the New Keynesian models that had displaced money-focused monetarist analysis by the early 2000s still …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished May 2026
This paper uses linked employer-employee data from Brazil (RAIS, 2007–2014, covering 267 million worker-years, 56 million unique workers, and 607,000 employers) to document that the gender pay gap of …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
This paper asks why unemployment rates differ so persistently across local labor markets, and what role job creation and job destruction play in generating those differences. The authors document a …
Decomposing a global risk factor built from stock returns in 63 economies into structural shocks, this paper finds that exogenous shifts in the financial sector's risk-bearing capacity matter more …
PublishedEconometricaOnline 1 Jan 2026Published Jan 2026
Using matched data combining physical production records (EAP survey) and financial statements (FARE) for 147,403 firm-years across 18 two-digit manufacturing industries in France (2009–2019), the …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
This paper estimates a causal housing wealth effect on consumption using a quasi-natural experiment in Stockholm, Sweden. The identification exploits an unanticipated political decision — announced in …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 17 Jan 2026Published Sep 2026
Donna and Espín-Sánchez investigate whether a market (sequential English auction) or a non-market institution (fixed quota) more efficiently allocates an intermediate good — irrigation water — when …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 29 Sep 2025Published May 2026
This paper studies the effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on educational attainment and labor market trajectories through two complementary approaches. Using policy discontinuities at U.S.
This paper estimates the causal effect of incarceration on employment, wage earnings, self-employment, and tax filing behavior using administrative criminal justice data linked to Internal Revenue …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 25 Aug 2026
This paper estimates the impact of unions on nonunion wage setting in the United States over the period 1980–2010, distinguishing two channels through which unions affect nonunion wages: (1) a …
PublishedClassicThe Economic JournalOnline 23 Dec 2001Published Apr 2001
The consensus view that contractionary monetary shocks raise unemployment but only slowly and gradually lower inflation is, this lecture argues, flatly inconsistent with the forward-looking "new …
PublishedClassicThe Review of Economics and StatisticsPublished Aug 1956
This paper works out, with a simple mathematical model, whether the ordinary transactions demand for cash -- the money people hold just to bridge the gap between when they receive income and when they …
PublishedClassicThe Journal of FinanceOnline 25 Jan 2019Published Feb 2019
Using the universe of business loans in Mexico matched to firm and bank balance sheets, this paper shows that each foreign monetary policy moves local credit supply mainly through banks headquartered …
This paper derives an "intertemporal Keynesian cross" showing that intertemporal marginal propensities to consume (iMPCs) are sufficient statistics for the output response of fiscal policy in …
This paper uses transaction-level bond data under MiFID I and II to measure five dimensions of Swedish government bond market liquidity during the Riksbank's QE program (2015–2020) and identifies two …
Does government-led construction of large manufacturing plants in previously under-industrialized regions generate long-run improvements in regional economic development and in the lifetime earnings …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 7 Jan 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper embeds early childhood development (ECD) investment into a general-equilibrium (GE), heterogeneous-agent, overlapping-generations model calibrated to U.S. data in order to quantify the …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 6 Oct 2025Published Oct 2025
How does an exchange rate depreciation causally affect macroeconomic outcomes? The paper asks whether depreciations are expansionary or contractionary, and through which mechanism. The core …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 31 Aug 2026
This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model with rich worker heterogeneity, firm monopsony power and putty-clay adjustment frictions in order to trace the time path of the effects of the federal …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 19 Feb 2026Published Apr 2026
The paper shows that the macroeconomic impact of climate change is an order of magnitude larger than what standard country-level panel estimates suggest. The key identification innovation is to …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 13 Jan 2026Published Sep 2026
How does partial capital irreversibility — arising from a wedge between the purchase price and the resale (discounted) price of capital — shape the persistence and amplitude of aggregate capital …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished May 2007
Backing the marginal product of capital straight out of output, the capital stock and the capital share gives a return in poor countries more than twice that in rich ones -- until two corrections are …
This review systematically compares heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets models to see which model features and calibration strategies can deliver both a realistically large average marginal …
Eaton and Fieler seek to reconcile two literatures that have advanced in parallel but remained at odds: (i) general equilibrium models of bilateral trade flows (the "gravity" tradition) and (ii) …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 17 Jun 2026
Using the 2001 Hungarian capital account liberalization as a quasi-natural experiment and census-level firm data covering the entire economy (1992–2008), the paper identifies two channels through …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Nov 1995
This 1995 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by John B. Taylor lays out an empirical framework for the monetary transmission mechanism and asks what it implies for the choice between fixed and …
This 2002 FRBNY Economic Policy Review article by Kenneth Kuttner and Patricia Mosser is a conference overview, not an original empirical study: it synthesizes papers presented at the Federal Reserve …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 1 Feb 2025Published Dec 2025
This paper studies the sources of long-term unemployment (LTU, defined as failing to find a job within six months) using administrative data on the universe of unemployment spells in Sweden from 1992 …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic QuarterlyPublished Jul 2000
King gives a simple exposition of the "New IS-LM model" -- a three-equation system of a forward-looking IS curve, a Fisher equation, and a New Keynesian (expectational) Phillips curve, each derivable …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 23 Mar 2019Published Jan 2020
This paper shows that the standard New Keynesian monetary transmission mechanism -- in which a rate cut raises output and employment -- breaks down in the simplest possible heterogeneous-agent version …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished Aug 2001
An interim survey of the dynamic general equilibrium open-economy literature that grew out of Obstfeld and Rogoff's 1995 Redux model, organised around the question of which of its assumptions its …
This 2012 Review of Economic Studies paper by Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Johannes Wieland asks what rate of steady-state (trend) inflation maximizes welfare in a New Keynesian DSGE …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 27 May 2025Published Jul 2025
What is the optimal joint nonlinear earnings tax schedule for married couples? How should one spouse's marginal tax rate depend on the other's earnings? When is individual earnings-based (separable) …
Solving the full dynamic Ramsey optimal-taxation problem (not just the welfare-maximizing steady state) in an Aiyagari (1995)-style incomplete-markets economy, this paper proves the long-run optimal …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 6 Oct 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper studies the economics of illegal tropical forest fires in Indonesia, framed as a modern counterpart to Pigou's canonical externality example of sparks from railway engines. The central …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic QuarterlyPublished Sep 2002
Dividing 1987-2001 into six phases -- the post-crash inflation of 1987-90, the Gulf War disinflation, the celebrated 1994-95 preemptive tightening, the near-full-credibility long boom, the 1999-2000 …
This paper shows that the standard New Keynesian prediction that forward guidance about interest rates far in the future is at least as powerful as guidance about current rates -- and grows …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 12 Sep 2026
When a central bank announces a policy it will not implement for some time, households and firms respond straight away. This paper measures how much of a policy's effect arrives in that anticipation …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 12 May 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper studies how physical proximity to coworkers affects on-the-job training and productivity, using software engineers at a Fortune 500 online retailer observed from 2019 to 2024. The authors …
Outlining the fiscal theory of the price level and its implications for monetary policy under inflationary and deflationary stress, Sims argues that the Maastricht Treaty's elaborate monetary …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 10 Oct 2025Published Jan 2026
Lyons, Shertzer, Gray, and Agorastos construct the first consistent, annual, quality-adjusted market rent and home sales price series for American cities spanning 1890–2006. The paper addresses a …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Jan 2026
Leading AI firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic publicly claim dual mandates of profit and social welfare, raising the question of whether—and how—a social mandate should change their pricing and …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Aug 2026
This paper studies the productivity of nurse practitioners (NPs) versus physicians performing overlapping tasks in Veterans Health Administration (VHA) emergency departments (EDs), exploiting a …
This paper proves that the "interior" Ramsey steady state routinely assumed in heterogeneous-agent optimal-taxation models -- with a modified-golden-rule interest rate and a positive capital tax, as …
PublishedClassicJournal of International EconomicsPublished Sep 2017
Brazil's IOF tax on foreign portfolio inflows was announced overnight and without warning, which makes it readable in stock prices. Two-day cumulative abnormal returns for listed Brazilian firms fall …
This paper tests, using nearly a century of British data (1861-1957), the hypothesis that the rate of change of money wage rates can be explained by the level of unemployment and the rate of change of …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Jun 2004
Demiralp and Jorda argue that since the Fed began publicly announcing its Federal funds rate target in 1994, it has manipulated short-term rates through a Pavlovian "announcement effect" -- moral …
PublishedClassicJournal of Business & Economic StatisticsPublished Jan 1989
Using band-pass spectral filters on weekly U.S. data from the Federal Reserve's 1979-82 nonborrowed-reserve-targeting period, Cochrane finds a negative short-run correlation between money growth and …
Measured firm by firm from accounting and stock-market data rather than imputed from national accounts, the marginal product of capital really is higher in poorer countries -- but inflation-adjusted …
This paper builds a business-cycle model merging the standard incomplete-markets model with the New Keynesian model of nominal rigidities to quantify how much automatic fiscal stabilizers (progressive …
Delivered as Friedman's presidential address to the American Economic Association in December 1967, this paper argues that two decades of professional opinion had swung too far toward assigning …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 16 Apr 2026
This paper builds and estimates a small open economy real-business-cycle (SOE-RBC) model for Cambodia augmented with two non-standard external-sector shocks — net unilateral transfers (remittances and …
PublishedClassicIMF Economic ReviewOnline 14 Feb 2020Published Mar 2020
US monetary tightening raises the probability of a banking crisis abroad, but only where the exposure to the United States is direct -- heavy bilateral trade or large dollar-denominated liabilities. …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Apr 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper develops a Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) search and matching model with internally rational (IR) agents who hold subjective beliefs about wages rather than perfect knowledge of the Nash …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Dec 1999
This widely cited survey derives monetary policy design from a simple forward-looking New Keynesian model, showing that optimal policy without commitment requires raising the nominal rate more than …
This 2005 American Economic Review paper by Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson asks whether long-term forward interest rates respond to daily macroeconomic and monetary-policy news, a …
Six of international macroeconomics' most stubborn puzzles -- home bias in trade, Feldstein-Horioka, home bias in equity portfolios, low consumption correlations, the slow mean reversion of real …
This paper asks whether informal redistributive pressure — the social obligation to share earned income with kin and social networks — distorts labor supply in low-income communities. The authors …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 30 Sep 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper addresses a fundamental challenge in program evaluation: primary outcomes of interest — such as lifetime earnings or long-term employment — are often observed only with lengthy delays, …
This 2019 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Jonas Arias, Dario Caldara, and Juan Rubio-Ramírez proposes identifying monetary policy shocks in a structural VAR by placing sign and zero …
Evaluating Taylor's interest-rate rule against an explicit optimizing New Keynesian model, this paper coins the "Taylor principle" -- that the nominal rate must eventually rise by more than any …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Nov 1952
This 1952 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper by William J. Baumol applies inventory-control theory to the transactions demand for cash, modeling an individual who withdraws cash in evenly spaced …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Feb 2000
Tracing the 20th-century history of "monetarism" through four successive subspecies, De Long argues that although monetarism's most politically influential and empirically fragile form collapsed in …
PublishedClassicThe Economic JournalOnline 14 Nov 2025Published May 2026
This essay argues that rational expectations about equilibrium prices -- which in heterogeneous-agent models means forecasting prices by forecasting the entire cross-sectional distribution, via an …
This 1978 Economics Letters paper by William A. Barnett asks what the correct price of holding a monetary asset actually is -- the "user cost" or equivalent rental price of the liquidity services a …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 25 May 2026
This paper uses an open-economy heterogeneous-household model with incomplete markets to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 — which …
PublishedClassicBrookings Papers on Economic ActivityPublished Jan 2003
This 2003 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity article by Gauti Eggertsson and Michael Woodford builds a fully dynamic New Keynesian general-equilibrium model — Calvo (1983) staggered pricing, money …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 30 Apr 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper proposes and measures the zero-beta rate — the expected return on a portfolio of stocks with zero market beta, constructed to be orthogonal to the SDF innovations spanned by standard …
This 1982 Econometrica paper by Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott builds an equilibrium growth model, fitted to post-war U.S. quarterly data, in which business-cycle fluctuations arise from technology …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)Published Dec 1996
Investment projects begin with a long planning phase that consumes very little in the way of resources, and building that phase into an otherwise standard real business cycle model delays the response …
This 2005 Review of Economic Studies paper by Giorgio Primiceri develops a Bayesian time-varying-parameter structural VAR (TVP-SVAR) with stochastic volatility — allowing not just the VAR coefficients …
This 2015 Review of Economic Studies corrigendum identifies and fixes a flaw in the Gibbs-sampling algorithm that Primiceri (2005) used to estimate time-varying-parameter structural VARs with …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 18 Oct 2025Published Jul 2026
Using sales and leasing transaction records for the Greater Toronto Area (2006–2018), this paper finds three novel effects of a higher property transaction tax: higher buy-to-rent transactions …
Tobin's conjecture that investment depends on marginal q is derived from a general present-value-maximising firm problem with installation costs, giving an investment rule that depends on neither the …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2025
The rapid proliferation of cryptocurrency tokens—roughly 10,000 outstanding with a total market capitalization around $3 trillion as of early 2024—raises new questions about the design of token …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 1 May 2025Published Feb 2026
Standard international trade models assume perfectly flexible prices and full employment. This paper introduces nominal rigidities (downward wage rigidity) into a quantitative trade model and asks how …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 13 Aug 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper asks whether dowry — a transfer from the bride's family to the groom's household upon marriage, prevalent throughout India — enables male migration by providing liquidity that compensates …
In a two-asset HANK model where households hold liquid bonds and illiquid capital, monetary policy transmits mainly through investment rather than consumption, but a tightening redistributes income …
This 2008 American Economic Review paper by Timothy Cogley and Argia Sbordone asks whether the substantial persistence long observed in U.S. inflation reflects a genuine structural feature of …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 26 Feb 2026Published Apr 2026
This paper investigates whether and how a CEO's inherited generalized trust enhances innovation within firms, offering a micro-foundation for the well-documented macro-level relationship between …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Oct 2025
Firm-level evidence shows that recessions are characterized not just by aggregate downturns but by a sharp rise in turbulence—a reshuffling of firms' productivity rankings in which high-productivity …
Using quarterly U.S. money, price, and interest-rate data smoothed with a two-sided exponentially weighted moving-average filter, Lucas shows that once high-frequency "business cycle" noise is …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 8 May 2020Published Nov 2020
A single global factor extracted from a large panel of risky asset prices traded around the world falls sharply after a US monetary contraction, alongside deleveraging by global banks, a rise in …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 18 Sep 2026
Asking whether unconventional monetary policy works differently from an interest-rate cut has been hard to answer because the two kinds of policy have been measured with different tools, so any …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Jun 2026Published Jul 2026
The paper asks why unconventional monetary policy (UMP) spillovers from the European Central Bank (ECB) to the U.S. Treasury yield curve vary so substantially over time, and whether the time-varying …
Using an analytically tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with CARA preferences and normally distributed idiosyncratic income risk, the paper shows that whether incomplete markets …
PublishedClassicEuropean Economic ReviewOnline 21 Nov 2010Published Jan 2011
Using the government-debt valuation equation -- the requirement that the real value of outstanding government debt equal the present value of future primary surpluses -- this paper argues that after …
PublishedClassicFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic ReviewPublished Oct 1994
Seven U.S. states permanently cut unemployment insurance (UI) benefits by 30–64 percent between 2011 and 2014, providing the study's quasi-experimental variation.
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and BankingOnline 14 Apr 2026
This paper documents that U.S. metropolitan statistical areas with higher income inequality have a larger share of failed banks, higher average bank default probabilities, and greater dispersion of …
Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions are a widely used tool for estimating dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics. Critics—notably Baumeister and Hamilton …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Aug 1994
This paper builds the standard growth model modified so that a continuum of infinitely-lived agents face uninsured idiosyncratic labor-income risk and a borrowing constraint, and shows that the …
PublishedClassicIMF Economic ReviewOnline 14 Feb 2020Published Mar 2020
Across nearly 1,000 listed financial firms in 21 countries, prolonged monetary easing raises leverage -- and for non-US firms, sustained easing in the United States raises leverage by more than easing …
PublishedJournal of Political EconomyOnline 1 Aug 2025Published May 2026
This paper asks whether the U.S. government exploits its market power as the dominant global supplier of safe assets when setting the quantity of public debt, and quantifies the macroeconomic …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 31 Aug 2026
Two of the most influential results in optimal tax theory — Saez's (2001) formula for the top income tax rate and Atkinson and Stiglitz's (1976) case for not taxing savings — are usually invoked …
Auclert, Bardóczy, Rognlie, and Straub introduce the "sequence-space Jacobian," a fast algorithm for computing the first-order derivatives of general-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent models with …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 23 Sep 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper provides the first causal evidence on how military service shaped Black civil rights activism in the aftermath of World War I. The research question is whether random induction into the …
This 2016 Economics Letters paper by Stephen D. Morris asks how concise the VARMA (vector autoregressive moving-average) representation of a DSGE model can be made, and whether the model's structural …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Nov 2001
This 2001 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by James Stock and Mark Watson reviews how vector autoregressions (VARs) have performed at the four core tasks of applied macroeconometrics — data …
This 2007 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Federico Ravenna asks a purely methodological question with direct consequences for structural VAR (SVAR) practice: under what conditions does a DSGE …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 5 Mar 2025Published Jul 2025
This paper studies the labor market effects of voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) — company-wide, publicly announced wage floors set by large private employers — in the U.S. low-wage retail and service …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
Which measures of labor market tightness best predict nominal wage inflation, and do standard measures such as the unemployment rate and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio capture the relevant slack? …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 4 Sep 2026
Wealth data for the nineteenth-century United States barely exist, and this paper builds them from an unusual source: the paper trail of the General Property Tax, a levy that — unlike land taxes …
This 2005 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Harald Uhlig proposes an "agnostic" sign-restriction procedure for identifying monetary policy shocks in a VAR, designed to test rather than assume the …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 7 Oct 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper asks a fundamental question about policy design: when a program prioritizes one group over another, is that because the group benefits more from the intervention, or because the policy …
Even after monetary policy shocks are "correctly" identified in a VAR, Cochrane argues a further, purely theoretical identifying assumption -- whether anticipated money can affect output -- is needed …
PublishedClassicBrookings Papers on Economic ActivityPublished Sep 1996
This 1996 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity paper by Eric Leeper, Christopher Sims, and Tao Zha asks what monetary policy actually does, and argues that the answer the identified-VAR literature …
Comparing Argentina's high, chronic nineteenth-century inflation to the United States' price stability, this paper argues the divergence reflects not differing policy competence but the different …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 22 Jun 2026
Conlon and Patel test whether students stereotype the link between college majors and occupations — that is, whether they exaggerate the likelihood that majors lead to their "representative" careers …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 18 Feb 2025Published Jul 2025
This paper investigates which types of school facility investments benefit students (as measured by test scores) and are valued by homeowners (as measured by house prices), and for which student …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Sep 2025
The entrepreneurship rate in the United States—defined as the share of the labor force who own and actively manage a business with at least ten employees—declined by 26% between 1987 and 2015, a …
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 1 Oct 2025Published Jul 2026
This paper studies how salary benchmarking tools — products that reveal aggregate market pay statistics for specific job titles — affect employee compensation. The research question is whether firms' …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 26 Dec 2024Published Apr 2025
When did sustained productivity growth begin in England? This paper constructs new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870, with the goal of both dating the onset of …
Most heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) models take household portfolios as exogenously fixed. This paper develops a sequence-space method for solving instead for endogenous, risk-hedging …
This paper develops a continuous-time method for solving heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate shocks by linearizing around a nonlinearly computed stationary equilibrium (extending Reiter's …
The government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds, and the larger the fraction of the spending that occurs while the nominal …
Online FirstReview of Economic StudiesOnline 14 May 2026
This paper asks: when does two-stage least squares (TSLS) with covariates actually estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE) — a non-negatively weighted average of causal effects for compliers …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 1 Jul 2026
This paper studies who bears the cost when unions raise worker wages — consumers, shareholders, other workers, or nobody, if productivity offsets the cost — using a legislative change in Norway that …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 10 Dec 2025Published Jan 2026
This paper asks how independent (pass-through) businesses in the United States accommodate minimum wage increases — specifically whether they reduce employment, compress profits, pass costs through to …
PublishedClassicAmerican Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsPublished Oct 2012
This 2012 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko adjudicates between two observationally similar explanations for the federal funds rate target's …
If two countries produce the same good with the same constant-returns technology, diminishing returns imply the poorer one has the higher marginal product of capital -- and on 1988 data, US output per …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 5 May 2026Published Jul 2026
This paper investigates a critical juncture in the development of national health insurance (NHI) in the United States: the post-World War II period when most peer nations moved to establish …
Online FirstJournal of Political EconomyOnline 25 Sep 2026
This paper examines frictions in dealer intermediation in durable consumer goods markets, using iBuyers — technology-driven real estate companies such as Opendoor and Offerpad — as a lens. The central …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
Dahl and Knepper address the long-standing puzzle of why workplace sexual harassment is chronically underreported despite high estimated prevalence. Survey evidence indicates that no fewer than 1 in …