The Economic Journal

Stephie Fried

This paper develops a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the distributional welfare impacts of higher temperatures from climate change across income groups in the United States. The …

Marc K Chan · Cain Polidano · Ha Vu · Roger Wilkins · Andrew Carter · Hang To

Governments across ten-plus countries — including Australia, the United States, Germany, and New Zealand — have introduced matching schemes to encourage low- and middle-income earners to contribute …

Peyman Firouzi Naeim · David W Johnston · Maryam Naghsh-Nejad

This paper examines how workplace environments shape the economic consequences that fall on mothers — but not fathers — when a child is diagnosed with cancer. The motivation is a gap in the …

Kjetil Storesletten · Bo Zhao · Fabrizio Zilibotti

This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and theoretical.

Saki Bigio · Diego R Känzig · Pablo Sánchez · Conor Walsh

This paper quantifies the sources and distributional consequences of unexpected carbon price changes for European households using a money-metric welfare framework. The motivation is stark: while …

Lucas Corrêa-Dias · Jordan J Norris · Heitor S Pellegrina

Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and input-intensive farming. This …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) shocks and demand …

Philipp Hochmuth · Per Krusell · Kurt Mitman

This paper investigates how the EU's Fit-for-55 climate package will affect aggregate output and distribute its costs across the income distribution. The question matters because energy is a necessity …

Robert P Lieli · Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu

This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call "forecasting with feedback." …

Hyejoon Im · John McLaren

Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called "race to the bottom" (RTB) hypothesis. The question has high stakes: advocates …

Giorgio Chiovelli · Stelios Michalopoulos · Elias Papaioannou · Tanner Regan

Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and over time has …

Christian Bredemeier · Babette Jansen · Roland Winkler

This paper proposes a novel fiscal transmission channel through which government spending expansions reduce employer monopsony power in the labor market, generating larger fiscal multipliers and …

Vincenzo De Lipsis · Matteo Deleidi · Mariana Mazzucato · Paolo Agnolucci

This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational Expectations SVAR …

Christiaan van der Kwaak

When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by permanently expanding …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the state of the …

Thomas Douenne · Albert Jan Hummel · Marcelo Pedroni

This paper asks whether inequality and redistributive taxation should make climate policy more or less ambitious, and how optimal carbon taxes interact with optimal income taxes when households differ …

Frédéric Docquier · Stefano Iandolo · Hillel Rapoport · Riccardo Turati · Gonzague Vannoorenberghe

This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a unified empirical case …

Robert J Barro · V V Chari

Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, and the …

Alessandra Fenizia · Nicholas Li · Luca Citino

This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll tax reductions as a tool for stimulating labor demand among marginalized workers, using a natural experiment from Italy. The motivation is …

Maximilian Konradt · Giacomo Mangiante

This paper asks whether carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes economic costs that are unequally distributed across European regions, and whether those economic costs …

Thomas Bourany · Jordan Rosenthal-Kay

This paper asks who wins and loses from climate policies — carbon taxes, renewable subsidies, and carbon tariffs — across 193 heterogeneous countries, and by how much. The motivation is that the …

Julián Costas-Fernández · José-Alberto Guerra · Myra Mohnen

This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over place-based versus …

Sarah Sander

This paper estimates the causal effects of universal daycare access on mothers' labor force participation, full-time employment, hours worked, and earnings across 34 years after the birth of their …

Melanie Wallskog · Nicholas Bloom · Scott Ohlmacher · Cristina Tello-Trillo

This paper investigates how within-firm pay inequality relates to firm-level labor productivity, using a novel linkage of three confidential U.S. Census Bureau datasets covering millions of workers at …

Juan J Dolado · Etienne Lalé · Hélène Turon

Dolado, Lalé, and Turon build a structural equilibrium model of the U.K. low-wage labour market to evaluate zero-hours contracts (ZHCs), employment agreements under which firms are not required to …

F. P. Ramsey

Frank Ramsey's 1928 paper asks how much of its income a nation ought to save, and derives a rule -- that the rate of saving times the marginal utility of consumption should equal the gap between …

Mathieu Pedemonte · Hiroshi Toma · Esteban Verdugo

Consumers' inflation expectations are heterogeneous across birth cohorts and history-dependent: using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), the paper documents that each cohort's …

Martin Feldstein · Charles Horioka

Across 16 industrial countries whose saving and investment rates are averaged over 1960-74, a one-percentage-point higher ratio of gross domestic saving to GDP comes with roughly nine-tenths of a …

Xincheng Qiu · Nicolò Russo

The paper provides the most comprehensive cross-country empirical characterisation of effective income tax functions to date, estimating the two-parameter log-linear tax function — pioneered by …

Ricardo Lagos

The cashless-limiting result in Woodford (1998) — that as money velocity diverges the allocation of a monetary economy converges to that of the corresponding economy without money — is the theoretical …

Bruno Conte · Klaus Desmet · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Standard analyses of unilateral carbon taxes ignore the spatial reallocation of economic activity induced by the policy, leading them to overstate the costs and understate the effectiveness of such …

Stefania D'Amico · William English · David López-Salido · Edward Nelson

This 2012 Economic Journal paper estimates how the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programmes of 2008-2011 lowered longer-term US Treasury yields, disaggregating the total effect within a …

N. Gregory Mankiw

The consensus view that contractionary monetary shocks raise unemployment but only slowly and gradually lower inflation is, this lecture argues, flatly inconsistent with the forward-looking "new …

Benjamin Moll

This essay argues that rational expectations about equilibrium prices -- which in heterogeneous-agent models means forecasting prices by forecasting the entire cross-sectional distribution, via an …