Journal of Political Economy

Victor Chernozhukov · Kaspar Wuthrich · Yinchu Zhu

Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …

Thomas R Covert · Ryan Kellogg

Covert and Kellogg study policies that aim to “keep carbon in the ground” by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment, with the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) as their empirical …

Ralph S.J. Koijen · Motohiro Yogo

The paper develops an asset demand system to analyze, jointly and across all countries, how international portfolio holdings and flows, exchange rates, short-term rates, long-term yields, and equity …

Zhengyang Jiang · Hanno Lustig · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh · Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies three centuries of U.K. fiscal history to understand the fiscal implications of safe asset supplier status — what the authors call “exorbitant …

Tan Gan · Nicholas Wu

This paper studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which an informed seller sells an experience good to a skeptical buyer who learns about the product through consumption. The central question …

Elena Capatina · Michael Keane

Capatina and Keane build and calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings for U.S. men that incorporates health shocks, endogenous human capital accumulation via learning-by-doing, …

Aimé Bierdel · Andres Drenik · Juan Herreño · Pablo Ottonello

The paper develops a quantitative capital-accumulation model in which capital trades in illiquid markets with asymmetric information — sellers know the quality of their capital but buyers do not. It …

Alexander W. Cappelen · Shachar Kariv · Erik Ø. Sørensen · Bertil Tungodden · William R. Zame

This paper asks whether an individual’s attitude toward risk in the personal domain (choices affecting only oneself) can be linked to that same individual’s attitude toward risk in the …

Guido Menzio

What this paper finds — and why it matters Across macroeconomics, market power is almost always modelled with the Dixit–Stiglitz (1977) monopolistic-competition framework, in which a seller’s …

Kelli Marquardt

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of ADHD diagnosis to decompose the mechanisms driving the observed 2.3:1 male-to-female diagnostic difference in the United States. The research …

Anmol Bhandari · Tobey Kass · Thomas J. May · Ellen R. McGrattan · Evan Schulz

This paper uses a novel longitudinal administrative dataset drawn from U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Social Security Administration (SSA) records to characterize income dynamics and the …

Daron Acemoglu · Daniel Huttenlocher · Asuman Ozdaglar · James Siderius

Acemoglu, Huttenlocher, Ozdaglar, and Siderius develop a two-sided platform model to study the welfare consequences of digital advertising as an online business model. The platform intermediates …

Francois Le Grand · Xavier Ragot

The Chamley-Judd result (1986) states that the optimal long-run capital income tax rate is zero in representative-agent models. This paper shows that introducing heterogeneous agents — specifically, …

Karun Adusumilli

This paper addresses a practical gap in the inference literature for sequential and adaptive experiments: while the design of such experiments has been studied extensively, there is little theory …

Michela Maria Tincani

This paper investigates the mechanisms behind peer effects in the classroom using exogenous variation in study disruptions generated by the 2010 Maule mega-earthquake in Chile (magnitude 8.8, the …

Ian Schofield Ball · Deniz Kattwinkel

Ball and Kattwinkel study quota mechanisms — linking mechanisms that impose aggregate constraints on agents’ reports across multiple decision problems — and provide the first theoretical …

Johnny Tang

This paper quantitatively assesses the consequences of jurisdictional competition in the US life insurance industry, an $8 trillion market. The central question is whether competition between state …

Boaz Abramson · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abramson and Van Nieuwerburgh study Rent Guarantee Insurance (RGI), a product in which an insurer pays the landlord on behalf of a tenant who defaults on rent due to a negative income or health …

Victor Gay · Paula E. Gobbi · Marc Goñi

Gay, Gobbi, and Goñi test Le Play’s (1875) hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France’s early fertility decline by abolishing impartible inheritance. In 1793, a series of …

Timothy B. Armstrong · Martin Weidner · Andrei Zeleneev

This paper develops new estimation and inference tools for the coefficient on a covariate of interest in large panel regressions whose unobserved heterogeneity has an interactive fixed effects …

Marco Bacchetta · Philippe Bacchetta · Elena Perazzi

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether sovereign debt crises can be self-fulfilling — triggered by lenders’ expectations of default rather than by weak fiscal fundamentals alone — and whether …

Duncan Webb

This paper examines how two types of communication about a minority group affect discriminatory behavior: (i) horizontal communication between majority-group members, and (ii) top-down communication …

Ulrika Ahrsjo · Costas Meghir · Marten Palme · Marieke Schnabel

This paper studies the intergenerational effects of education policy on crime, asking whether a compulsory schooling reform that reduced crime among those directly exposed also reduced crime among …

David A. Green · Ben M. Sand · Iain G. Snoddy · Jeanne Tschopp

This paper estimates the impact of unions on nonunion wage setting in the United States over the period 1980–2010, distinguishing two channels through which unions affect nonunion wages: (1) a …

Diego Daruich

Layer 1: Overview This paper embeds early childhood development (ECD) investment into a general-equilibrium (GE), heterogeneous-agent, overlapping-generations model calibrated to U.S. data in order to …

Kyle Herkenhoff · Gueorgui Kambourov · Iourii Manovskii · Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas Sargent

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies the sources of long-term unemployment (LTU, defined as failing to find a job within six months) using administrative data on the universe of unemployment spells in …

Mikhail Chernov · Lars A. Lochstoer · Dongho Song

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes and measures the zero-beta rate — the expected return on a portfolio of stocks with zero market beta, constructed to be orthogonal to the SDF innovations spanned …

Andres Rodriguez-Clare · Mauricio Ulate · Jose P. Vasquez

Standard international trade models assume perfectly flexible prices and full employment. This paper introduces nominal rigidities (downward wage rigidity) into a quantitative trade model and asks how …

Zhengyang Jiang · Hanno Lustig · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh · Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the U.S. government exploits its market power as the dominant global supplier of safe assets when setting the quantity of public debt, and quantifies the …

Greg Buchak · Gregor Matvos · Tomasz Piskorski · Amit Seru

This paper examines frictions in dealer intermediation in durable consumer goods markets, using iBuyers — technology-driven real estate companies such as Opendoor and Offerpad — as a lens. The central …