Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

BEHZAD DIBA · OLIVIER LOISEL

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian …

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Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by …

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Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts …

Chadwick Curtis · Julio Garín · Robert Lester

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the …

Yang Han · Jun Ma

This paper proposes a shadow rate no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model (SDTSM) with drifting trends to estimate the long-run trend of the real interest rate using yield curve data from the U.S., …

Christiaan van der Kwaak · Sweder van Wijnbergen

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic …

RYUICHIRO IZUMI · YANG LI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Asset fire sales were a defining feature of the 2007-08 crisis, and post-crisis reforms (Basel III liquidity requirements, Money Market Mutual Fund …

Hiona Balfoussia · Harris Dellas · Dimitris Papageorgiou

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies a transmission channel from sovereign fiscal weakness to banking performance that the literature has largely overlooked: government-provided deposit insurance, …

Luís A.V. Catão · Jan Ditzen · Daniel Marcel Te Kaat

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks’ non-core funding, and whether exchange …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers …

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Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and why the type of employment — specifically public-sector employment — affects household saving rates in China. This …

Gene Ambrocio

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic …

Antoine L. Noël · Hongfei Sun

Layer 1: Overview Noël and Sun build an information-based theory of capital structure designed to explain the diversity of observed firm financing behavior and the coexistence of distinct optimal …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

Layer 1: Overview This paper revisits the “reversal puzzle” — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian …

CHARLES M. KAHN · DAVID MARSHALL · ROBERT L. MCDONALD

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a “market-maker of last …

CECILIA DASSATTI · RODRIGO LLUBERAS · FRANCESC RODRIGUEZ-TOUS

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Banks reluctant to recognize losses on troubled borrowers engage in “loan evergreening”—rolling over or extending credit to delay loss …

Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo · Iván Payá

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of …

RODRIGO BARBONE GONZALEZ · JOÃO BARATA RIBEIRO BLANCO BARROSO · BERNARDUS FERDINANDUS NAZAR VAN DOORNIK

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — …

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Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies’ foreign debt …

Richard Dennis · Oleg Kirsanov

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents “present bias” — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, …

Michael Smolyansky · Gustavo Suarez

Layer 1: Overview When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that …

MELTEM CHADWICK · RENNAE CHERRY · JAQUESON K. GALIMBERTI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household …

TAKAO ASANO · YUSUKE OSAKI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the “precautionary saving motive.” The …

THORSTEN BECK · PETER BEDNAREK · DANIEL TE KAAT · NATALJA VON WESTERNHAGEN

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system’s foreign-asset exposure plays in …

Jay Hyun · Ziho Park · Vladimir Smirnyagin

Layer 1: Overview This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as …

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Layer 1: Overview Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, …

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Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given …

Pasqualina Arca · Gianfranco Atzeni · Luca G. Deidda

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing …

Masami Imai · Michiru Sawada

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends …

Justine Guillochon

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households’ one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, …

Marius Clemens · Stefan Gebauer · Tobias König

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European …

Volha Audzei · Ivan Sutóris

Layer 1: Overview Audzei and Sutóris ask whether inflation-targeting monetary policy affects households’ incentives to invest in energy conservation, and whether the standard central bank …

DOMINIK BODDIN · DANIEL MARCEL TE KAAT · CHANG MA · ALESSANDRO REBUCCI

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing …

Allen N. Berger · Onesime Epouhe · Raluca A. Roman

This paper examines the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—two government bailout programs during the Global Financial Crisis and the …

SANG RAE KIM

This paper studies when a bank is more effective as a supplier of privately produced money-like safe assets (repo, commercial paper), finding that a bank produces safer, more liquid assets when (1) …

David Rivero · Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal

Layer 1: Overview This paper demonstrates that the canonical efficiency result of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) — that banks using maturity transformation can decentralize the first-best risk-sharing …

Kevin X.D. Huang · Qinglai Meng · Jianpo Xue

Layer 1: Overview This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget …

Hanfeng Chen · Maria Elena Filippin

The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …

BENJAMÍN GARCÍA · ARSENIOS SKAPERDAS

This paper constructs a new measure of political pressure on the Federal Reserve from textual analysis of Fed Chairs’ testimonies at Humphrey-Hawkins congressional hearings, and documents that …

Barbara Annicchiarico · Marco Carli · Francesca Diluiso

This paper embeds a carbon pricing sector into an extended DSGE model with a financial accelerator (E-DSGE) featuring heterogeneous firms, bank monitoring, and a borrowing-constraint amplification …

Stefania D'Amico · Iryna Kaminska

Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England’s published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, …

Fabian Gogolin · Ivan Lim · Francesco Vallascas

This paper studies what happens to local banking markets when a small bank suffers a successful cyberattack, using a stacked difference-in-differences design on 16 cyber incidents at small U.S. banks …

Gu Jin · Tao Zhu

This paper applies a multiple-denomination commodity money model — building on Lee, Wallace, and Zhu (2005) — to coinage episodes in late medieval England, and derives two main findings. Shortages of …

Lee K. Davison · Carlos D. Ramirez

Overview Research question. Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies …

Christoph Wegener · Robinson Kruse-Becher · Tony Klein

This paper tests whether the sharp rise in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowance prices from 2018 onward was driven by a rational bubble. The methodological contribution is to modify the Fama …

Emanuele Ciola · Gabriele Tedeschi

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the endogenous structure of credit, deposit, and interbank networks shapes business cycle fluctuations and large financial crises in the U.S. economy. …

Markus Hertrich · Daniel Nathan

This paper uses confidential daily data on the Bank of Israel’s (BOI) foreign exchange purchase program in the USD/Israeli new shekel (ILS) spot market from 2013 to 2019 to study how FX …

EMMANUEL DE VEIRMAN · JASPER DE JONG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The …

Kristian S. Blickle · Sarah N. Hamerling · Donald P. Morgan

Using FEMA disaster declarations matched to SHELDUS property-damage estimates and Call Report data for 1995–2018, this paper finds that weather disasters — even at their most severe — have had modest …

Rodney J. Garratt · Zhentong Lu · Phoebe Tian

This paper uses detailed transaction-level data from Canada’s new high-value payment system (HVPS) to show how participants save liquidity by strategically exploiting the gridlock resolution …

Carlos Arteta · Steven Kamin · Franz U. Ruch

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the …

Guillermo A. Calvo · Andrés Velasco

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Calvo and Velasco study an economy where both money and government bonds provide liquidity services, and they show that this shared role implies …

Alessia De Stefani · Rui C. Mano

This paper uses instrumental-variable local projections (IV-LP) on an unbalanced panel of up to 35 countries over approximately two decades to establish two interconnected findings about fixed-rate …

KOZO UEDA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) stems from temporary circumstances (e.g., transient wealth shocks that tighten …

MIRKO ABBRITTI · SEBASTIAN WEBER

This paper develops a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous TFP growth and product and labor market frictions to assess how cross-country differences in market regulation affect …

JULIO L. ORTIZ

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a “misspecified …

Maximilian Schröder

This paper introduces a Bayesian Gaussian mixture density regression framework that estimates the complete forecast distribution of inflation — not just selected quantiles — and decomposes the entire …

GEORGE J. BRATSIOTIS · KASUN D. PATHIRAGE

This paper introduces a four-agent estimated New Keynesian DSGE model—comprising banked simple households, underbanked simple households, firm owners, and bank owners—to examine agent-specific and …

Sandra Daudignon · Oreste Tristani

This paper analyzes how monetary policy should respond to a long-run natural interest rate that can drift permanently — following a bounded random walk with upper bound 3 percent and lower bound 0 …

Michael T. Kiley

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under discretion when the loss function is asymmetric — placing greater weight on employment shortfalls than on equivalently sized employment strength. The …

Sebastian Schmidt

The paper builds a discrete-time DSGE model with Calvo sticky prices in which the public sector has two feedback rules that can hit corners, generating endogenous shifts between an …

Apostolos Serletis · Libo Xu

Measuring the welfare cost of inflation requires specifying a money demand function, a definition of money, and an approach to consumer surplus; existing estimates vary widely because these choices …

Chenyu Shan · Dragon Yongjun Tang · Wenya Wang

Third-party loan guarantees—in which a fee-charging guarantor formally guarantees a bank loan and conducts its own due diligence on the borrower—are present in approximately 10% of Chinese bank loans …

Jens H. E. Christensen · Simon T. Hetland

The paper introduces the concept of “passive quantitative easing” (passive QE): a deliberate reduction in government debt issuance that lowers anticipated future bond supply and reduces …

Yuteng Cheng · Ryuichiro Izumi

This paper examines how the degree of user anonymity built into a central bank digital currency (CBDC) affects bank lending decisions and what this implies for the optimal design of CBDC anonymity. …

RICHARD DENNIS · TATIANA KIRSANOVA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether …

Hubert János Kiss · Alfonso Rosa García · Lukas Voellmy

Layer 1: Overview This paper uses laboratory experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of two liquidity management tools — redemption fees and redemption gates — in reducing runs on money market funds …

Ojasvita Bahl · Chetan Ghate · Debdulal Mallick

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) routinely intervene in agricultural markets — procuring grain and redistributing it …

José E. Gutiérrez

This paper provides a contract-theoretic rationale for the special liquidity regulation of bank credit lines—a form of lending that has received little attention in the regulatory literature despite …

ANNA GRODECKA‐MESSI · JIEYING LI · XIN ZHANG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates how rising house prices affect the composition of household debt portfolios in Sweden during 2010–2014. Specifically, the authors ask …

MASAZUMI HATTORI · TOMOHIDE MINEYAMA · JOUCHI NAKAJIMA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal …

Panagiotis Avramidis · George G. Pennacchi

Using 2001-2022 annual data on U.S. commercial and savings banks matched with county-level demographic data, this paper shows that banks operating in areas with older populations—measured by the …

IVAN LIM · JENS HAGENDORFF · SETH ARMITAGE

Using closures of U.S. bank regulatory offices between 2002 and 2013 as difference-in-differences shocks to the physical proximity between supervisors and the community banks they oversee, the paper …

Marianna Blix Grimaldi · Alberto Crosta · Dong Zhang

This paper uses transaction-level bond data under MiFID I and II to measure five dimensions of Swedish government bond market liquidity during the Riksbank’s QE program (2015–2020) and …

Veasna Kheng · Lei Pan · Xiaodong Fan

This paper builds and estimates a small open economy real-business-cycle (SOE-RBC) model for Cambodia augmented with two non-standard external-sector shocks — net unilateral transfers (remittances and …

Mamoon Kader · Hashmat Khan · Minjoon Lee · Raúl Razo-García

Layer 1: Overview This paper uses an open-economy heterogeneous-household model with incomplete markets to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) …

Yuliyan Mitkov · Ulrich Schüwer

This paper documents that U.S. metropolitan statistical areas with higher income inequality have a larger share of failed banks, higher average bank default probabilities, and greater dispersion of …