This 2014 European Economic Review paper by Gary Koop and Dimitris Korobilis develops a time-varying-parameter factor-augmented VAR (TVP-FAVAR) with dynamic model averaging (DMA) to construct a …
This paper builds a model in which a currency crisis is triggered by a "fiscal imbalance" -- an anticipated decline in the government's future primary surpluses -- and shows that the size and maturity …
Letting a fraction of consumers and price setters replace optimisation with a backward-looking rule of thumb adds endogenous persistence to output and inflation, changes how shocks travel through a …
Against the standard narrative that only monetary policy errors could have caused or prevented the 1970s US inflation, Sims documents dramatic swings in US fiscal stance over the period and shows, in …
This 1988 European Economic Review paper by Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano asks why a high-inflation country would voluntarily submit to the EMS's fixed-but-adjustable exchange-rate discipline, …
PublishedClassicEuropean Economic ReviewOnline 21 Nov 2010Published Jan 2011
Using the government-debt valuation equation -- the requirement that the real value of outstanding government debt equal the present value of future primary surpluses -- this paper argues that after …