Econometrica

George-Marios Angeletos · Chen Lian · Christian K. Wolf

The paper asks whether a government can run a deficit today — issuing “stimulus checks” — and allow debt to return to its initial level without any future tax hike or spending cut. In …

Farid Farrokhi · Ahmad Lashkaripour

Overview Farrokhi and Lashkaripour (2025) study the interaction between trade policy and climate change. The central research question is whether and how countries can use trade policy — specifically …

Robert M. Anderson · Haosui Duanmu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Anderson and Duanmu (2025) ask how general equilibrium (GE) interactions — factor reallocation across sectors, capital misallocation under climate uncertainty, and …

Ngoc-Sang Pham · Alexis Akira Toda

Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles can resolve the capital over-accumulation problem when the economy is …

Andreas Haller · Stefan Staubli · Josef Zweimüller

This paper develops a sufficient statistics framework for the welfare analysis of disability insurance (DI) policy reforms and applies it to two reform episodes in Austria. The framework derives …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Giacomo Lanzani

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that …

Alexandr Kopytov · Bineet Mishra · Kristoffer Nimark · Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

This paper studies how firms’ optimal technique choices under productivity uncertainty endogenously shape the structure of production networks and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. Each sector …

Naoki Aizawa · Corina Mommaerts · Stephanie Rennane

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies (1) how firm accommodation decisions respond to financial incentives in the context of workplace disability under workers’ compensation, …

Eduardo Azevedo · Jonathan Beauchamp · Richard Karlsson Linnér

This paper asks how much adverse selection would arise in critical illness insurance (CII) markets if consumers can observe polygenic indexes (PGIs) — genetic risk scores derived from millions of …

David Berger · Kyle Herkenhoff · Simon Mongey

Overview Research question. Can minimum wages improve welfare through efficiency — by correcting monopsony-driven under-employment — and, if so, by how much? What is the optimal minimum wage, and how …

Oleg Itskhoki · Dmitry Mukhin

The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the empirical observation of a sharp, simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange …

Scott T. Nelson

The 2009 Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act barred credit card lenders from discretionarily raising borrowers’ interest rates in response to new information. …

Tom D. Holden

The paper proposes and analyzes real rate rules — monetary policy rules of the form i_t = r_t + φπ_t (φ > 1), where r_t is the current-period real interest rate observed via TIPS yields or …

Andrew B. Abel · Stavros Panageas

Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality Research Question The paper addresses two questions about government debt rollover. First, a positive …

Clement Imbert · Gabriel Ulyssea

Overview Research Question. Does rural-urban migration increase or decrease urban informality, and through what mechanisms — and does the answer depend on the time horizon? Setting and Data. The paper …

Giulia Brancaccio · Karam Kang

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates whether intermediaries in the U.S. municipal bond market strategically exploit product design to increase search frictions and, through …

Michael Weber · Bernardo Candia · Hassan Afrouzi · Tiziano Ropele · Rodrigo Lluberas · Serafin Frache · Brent Meyer · Saten Kumar · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Dimitris Georgarakos · Olivier Coibion · Geoff Kenny · Jorge Ponce

This paper uses randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in multiple countries to study whether the economic environment — specifically the level of inflation — affects how agents learn from …

Benjamin L. Collier · Cameron M. Ellis · Benjamin J. Keys

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the shadow cost that consumers assign to pledging their primary residence as collateral, using administrative loan application and performance data from the U.S. …

Maarten De Ridder · Basile Grassi · Giovanni Morzenti

Using matched data combining physical production records (EAP survey) and financial statements (FARE) for 147,403 firm-years across 18 two-digit manufacturing industries in France (2009–2019), the …

Andrew Garin · Dmitri Koustas · Carl McPherson · Samuel Norris · Matthew Pecenco · Evan K. Rose · Yotam Shem-Tov · Jeffrey Weaver

Overview This paper estimates the causal effect of incarceration on employment, wage earnings, self-employment, and tax filing behavior using administrative criminal justice data linked to Internal …

Ana Cecília Fieler · Jonathan Eaton

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Eaton and Fieler seek to reconcile two literatures that have advanced in parallel but remained at odds: (i) general equilibrium models of bilateral trade flows …

Eliana Carranza · Aletheia Donald · Florian Grosset-Touba · Supreet Kaur

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks whether informal redistributive pressure — the social obligation to share earned income with kin and social networks — distorts labor supply in …

Jonas E. Arias · Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez · Daniel F. Waggoner

Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions are a widely used tool for estimating dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics. Critics—notably Baumeister and Hamilton …