J64

Ping Wang · Tsz-Nga Wong

Wang and Wong develop a continuous-time labor-search model to assess the dynamic effects of generative AI (GenAI) on labor productivity and unemployment. The paper is motivated by conflicting …

Andreas Hornstein · Marios Karabarbounis · André Kurmann · Etienne Lalé · Lien Ta

This paper isolates the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on employment recovery, separating them from the simultaneously operating stimulative (demand) effects …

Brent Bundick · Isabel Cairó · Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in macroeconomic models. Specifically, …

Richard Audoly

How do aggregate economic fluctuations reallocate workers across the firm productivity distribution over the business cycle? In particular, to what extent do recessions impede workers' movement up the …

Serdar Birinci · Fatih Karahan · Yusuf Mercan · Kurt See

The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly inflation? (2) What is the …

Olivier Blanchard · Jordi Galí

A New Keynesian model is extended with hiring costs that rise in labour market tightness and with real wage rigidity, so that unemployment exists and moves. Under the paper's utility specification the …

Jonathan Créchet · Etienne Lalé · Linas Tarasonis

The paper asks: what are the sources of cross-country differences in aggregate employment across European economies, and which types of worker flows — between employment (E), unemployment (U), and …

Edmund S. Phelps

This paper builds a dynamic, non-stochastic model of the "optimal" fiscal control of aggregate demand, deriving the time path of aggregate employment (or "utilization") that a policymaker who cares …

Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas J. Sargent

This 1998 Journal of Political Economy paper by Lars Ljungqvist and Thomas Sargent argues that the persistently high unemployment that struck European welfare states from the 1980s onward reflects not …

Moritz Kuhn · Iourii Manovskii · Xincheng Qiu

This paper asks why unemployment rates differ so persistently across local labor markets, and what role job creation and job destruction play in generating those differences. The authors document a …

A. W. Phillips

This paper tests, using nearly a century of British data (1861-1957), the hypothesis that the rate of change of money wage rates can be explained by the level of unemployment and the rate of change of …

Milton Friedman

Delivered as Friedman's presidential address to the American Economic Association in December 1967, this paper argues that two decades of professional opinion had swung too far toward assigning …

Gordon B. Dahl · Matthew M. Knepper

Seven U.S. states permanently cut unemployment insurance (UI) benefits by 30–64 percent between 2011 and 2014, providing the study's quasi-experimental variation.