What makes a sovereign bond a safe asset is not the strength of its fundamentals in absolute terms but their strength relative to the alternatives, together with the size of the debt outstanding -- …
Bank leverage is the linchpin of a risk-taking channel through which monetary policy travels across borders: in a pre-crisis quarterly VAR a tighter US policy rate raises the VIX, lowers broker-dealer …
Written on the eve of Argentina's 2001-02 currency-board collapse, this Chicago Fed policy piece examines Argentina's 1991-99 dollar peg as a test case for the costs and benefits of full …
This paper builds a model in which a currency crisis is triggered by a "fiscal imbalance" -- an anticipated decline in the government's future primary surpluses -- and shows that the size and maturity …
PublishedClassicGlobalization in Historical PerspectivePublished Jan 2003
Global capital mobility traces a U over the past century and a half, and the authors argue the shape is explained by the open-economy policy trilemma rather than by technology: capital moved freely …
PublishedClassicReview of Economic StudiesOnline 8 May 2020Published Nov 2020
A single global factor extracted from a large panel of risky asset prices traded around the world falls sharply after a US monetary contraction, alongside deleveraging by global banks, a rise in …