E70

JULIO L. ORTIZ

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a “misspecified …

Christopher Gust · Edward Herbst · David López-Salido

Central banks must set policy under uncertainty about how private-sector expectations form, which changes how monetary policy transmits to output and inflation. This paper studies optimal …