E62

Damien Capelle · Yang Liu

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …

Atif Mian · Ludwig Straub · Amir Sufi

This paper develops a tractable continuous-time model to study the fiscal sustainability of government deficits and the joint dynamics of public debt, with two main ingredients: an endogenous interest …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Benjamin Born · Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Georgi Kocharkov · Ralph Luetticke · Michael Weber

The paper studies Germany’s temporary 3 percentage-point VAT cut from July 1 to December 31, 2020 (standard rate 19%→16%, reduced rate 7%→5%), combining two causal identification strategies with …

George-Marios Angeletos · Chen Lian · Christian K. Wolf

The paper asks whether a government can run a deficit today — issuing “stimulus checks” — and allow debt to return to its initial level without any future tax hike or spending cut. In …

Kevin X.D. Huang · Qinglai Meng · Jianpo Xue

Layer 1: Overview This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget …

Christoph Grosse-Steffen · Laura Pagenhardt · Malte Rieth

A central debate in fiscal policy is whether fiscal rules—numerical constraints on budget deficits or debt levels—impair a government’s ability to respond to adverse economic shocks, creating a …

Anastasiia Antonova · Gernot J. Müller

This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …

Carlos Arteta · Steven Kamin · Franz U. Ruch

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the …

Daniel Lewis · Davide Melcangi · Laura Pilossoph

Lewis, Melcangi, and Pilossoph estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using the 2008 Economic Stimulus Act (ESA) rebate payments, deploying Gaussian …

Jacob D Orchard · Valerie A Ramey · Johannes F Wieland

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. Do the high marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) estimated in the leading household studies of the 2008 U.S. tax rebates—particularly Parker et al. (2013), …

Luis G. Hernández-Román

This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve’s historical response, and …

Sebastian Schmidt

The paper builds a discrete-time DSGE model with Calvo sticky prices in which the public sector has two feedback rules that can hit corners, generating endogenous shifts between an …

Boaz Abramson · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abramson and Van Nieuwerburgh study Rent Guarantee Insurance (RGI), a product in which an insurer pays the landlord on behalf of a tenant who defaults on rent due to a negative income or health …

Mamoon Kader · Hashmat Khan · Minjoon Lee · Raúl Razo-García

Layer 1: Overview This paper uses an open-economy heterogeneous-household model with incomplete markets to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) …