E58

Taeyoung Doh · Dongho Song · Shu-Kuei Yang

This paper proposes a text-based measure of monetary policy stance by modelling FOMC post-meeting statements as convex combinations of the staff-drafted dovish ("alternative A") and hawkish …

Tobias Adrian · Christopher Erceg · Marcin Kolasa · Jesper Lindé · Pawel Zabczyk

A microfounded two-country New Keynesian model, calibrated separately to a representative emerging market and a representative advanced economy, in which limited FX-market risk-bearing capacity and an …

Tobias Adrian · Christopher Erceg · Jesper Lindé · Pawel Zabczyk · Jianping Zhou

An empirically-oriented New Keynesian small open economy model, of the kind central banks use, built to quantify when foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management tools improve monetary …

Marco J. Lombardi · Feng Zhu

This 2018 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Marco J. Lombardi and Feng Zhu proposes a "shadow policy rate" for U.S.

Allen N. Berger · Onesime Epouhe · Raluca A. Roman

This paper examines the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—two government bailout programs during the Global Financial Crisis and the …

Emmanuel Farhi · Iván Werning

This paper builds a theory of macroprudential policy whose only friction is nominal rigidity in goods and labor markets, possibly combined with a constraint on monetary policy such as the zero lower …

Jess Benhabib · Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé · Martín Uribe

Because a Taylor-type interest-rate rule must be consistent with the zero nominal-interest-rate bound, it always admits a second, unintended steady state with low or negative inflation alongside the …

Douglas W. Diamond · Philip H. Dybvig

A three-period model in which households face a privately observed, uninsurable risk of needing to consume early, and where a demand deposit contract lets banks share that risk better than any market …

Michael Ehrmann · Phillipp Gnan · Kilian Rieder

This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three central questions: (1) Are leaks random …

Hanfeng Chen · Maria Elena Filippin

The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …

Benjamín García · Arsenios Skaperdas

This paper constructs a new measure of political pressure on the Federal Reserve from textual analysis of Fed Chairs' testimonies at Humphrey-Hawkins congressional hearings, and documents that the use …

Manuel Amador · Christopher Phelan

How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? Specifically, can a central bank that …

Marvin Goodfriend

Classifying Federal Reserve crisis-era interventions into monetary policy, credit policy, and interest-on-reserves policy, Goodfriend argues that only "Treasuries only" monetary policy is fiscally …

John H. Cochrane

Discussing Christina and David Romer's "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks," Cochrane argues the paper's key innovation -- that Greenbook forecasts are a sufficient statistic for the Fed's information …

Stefania D'Amico · Iryna Kaminska

Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England's published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, QE4: …

Marek Jarociński · Peter Karadi

This 2020 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Marek Jarociński and Peter Karadi argues that conventional high-frequency-identified monetary policy surprises conflate two economically …

Zhengyang Chen

This 2026 Journal of Macroeconomics paper by Zhengyang Chen asks why high-frequency monetary policy surprises (MPS) -- changes in short-term interest-rate futures measured in narrow windows around …

John B. Taylor

This 1993 Carnegie-Rochester Conference paper by John Taylor introduces what became known as the "Taylor rule" — a simple guideline for setting the federal funds rate, r = p + 0.5y + 0.5(p - 2) + 2, …

Refet S. Gürkaynak · Brian Sack · Eric T. Swanson

This 2005 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson tests whether asset-price responses to FOMC announcements can be adequately characterized by a …

Michael McLeay · Silvana Tenreyro

An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are allegedly sticky in …

François R. Velde · Marcelo Veracierto

Written on the eve of Argentina's 2001-02 currency-board collapse, this Chicago Fed policy piece examines Argentina's 1991-99 dollar peg as a test case for the costs and benefits of full …

John B. Taylor

Building a simple rational-expectations model of the federal funds market -- a lagged Trading Desk "reaction function" for the supply of Fed balances combined with a demand for balances that depends …

Giancarlo Corsetti · Bartosz Maćkowiak

This paper builds a model in which a currency crisis is triggered by a "fiscal imbalance" -- an anticipated decline in the government's future primary surpluses -- and shows that the size and maturity …

Rodney J. Garratt · Zhentong Lu · Phoebe Tian

This paper uses detailed transaction-level data from Canada's new high-value payment system (HVPS) to show how participants save liquidity by strategically exploiting the gridlock resolution …

Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner

The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in which existing algorithms are shown to …

Ben S. Bernanke · Frederic S. Mishkin

This 1997 Journal of Economic Perspectives essay by Ben Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin is a survey and policy assessment, not an empirical study: it draws on comparative experience across the eight …

Marvin Goodfriend

Using the 30-year bond rate as a real-time signal of the public's long-run inflation expectations, this narrative study of Fed federal funds rate policy from 1979 to 1992 argues that the central …

Thomas J. Sargent · Joseph Zeira

Israeli inflation jumped from 130% to 400% in October 1983 with no contemporaneous rise in the government deficit; Sargent and Zeira attribute the jump to the government's announced bailout of …

Maximilian Grimm · Òscar Jordà · Moritz Schularick · Alan M. Taylor

This paper provides the first long-run causal evidence that a persistently loose stance of monetary policy — defined as extended periods of low interest rates relative to the neutral rate — …

George J. Bratsiotis · Kasun D. Pathirage

This paper introduces a four-agent estimated New Keynesian DSGE model—comprising banked simple households, underbanked simple households, firm owners, and bank owners—to examine agent-specific and …

Ben S. Bernanke · Vincent R. Reinhart · Brian P. Sack

This 2004 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity paper by Ben Bernanke, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian Sack asks whether "nonstandard" monetary policies can still work once the short-term policy rate is …

Florin O. Bilbiie

THANK, a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model built around a single statistic for the cyclicality of income inequality, shows that the conditions needed for HANK-style amplification of …

Michael Woodford

Against fears that electronic money will erode central banks' monopoly over a monetary base and so undermine their power to control inflation, Woodford argues that monetary policy works through …

Richard Clarida · Jordi Galí · Mark Gertler

Estimating a forward-looking Federal Reserve policy rule separately for 1960-79 and 1979-96, this paper finds that the Fed let real short-term rates fall as expected inflation rose before Volcker, but …

Athanasios Orphanides

This 2001 American Economic Review paper by Athanasios Orphanides asks how large the informational problem is when Taylor-type interest rate rules are implemented with the data actually available to …

Athanasios Orphanides

Re-estimating the Clarida-Galí-Gertler forward-looking Fed policy rule using only the real-time Greenbook forecasts available to the FOMC at the time, rather than revised after-the-fact data, this …

Luis G. Hernández-Román

This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve's historical response, and evaluates …

Michael T. Kiley

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under discretion when the loss function is asymmetric — placing greater weight on employment shortfalls than on equivalently sized employment strength. The …

Fiorella De Fiore · Marie Hoerova · Ciaran Rogers · Harald Uhlig

The paper studies the euro area interbank money markets during the global financial crisis (2007–09) and sovereign debt crisis (2010–15), documenting four empirical regularities and building a …

Camelia Minoiu · Rebecca Zarutskie · Andrei Zlate

Minoiu, Zarutskie, and Zlate ask whether participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency facility launched in mid-2020 to channel credit to small and mid-sized …

Michael Woodford

Woodford shows that the price level remains determinate even under two forms of radical money-supply endogeneity long thought to destroy monetary control -- a central-bank interest-rate peg and …

Markus Haavio · Joni Heikkinen · Pirkka Jalasjoki · Juha Kilponen · Maritta Paloviita · Ilona Vänni

This paper estimates the European Central Bank's loss function directly rather than inferring it from a reaction function, using the tone of the Governing Council's press conference introductory …

James Bullard · Alex Grimaud · Isabelle Salle · Gauthier Vermandel

Why did the 2021–2023 US inflation surge end in a soft landing — disinflation without a major recession — while the Volcker disinflation of 1979–1987 required substantial output losses? And was the …

Anusha Chari · Karlye Dilts-Stedman · Kristin Forbes

A country's macroprudential stance looks irrelevant to portfolio flows on average, but that average hides the tails. Countries with tighter ex-ante regulation see larger bond and equity outflows in …

Frederic S. Mishkin

This 1995 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by Frederic Mishkin is the introduction to a JEP symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism, and it contains no original data or estimation of …

Anusha Chari · Karlye Dilts Stedman · Christian Lundblad

Identifying US monetary policy shocks from daily moves in five-year Treasury futures around FOMC announcements, this paper shows that during the unconventional-policy years those shocks largely …

Masazumi Hattori · Tomohide Mineyama · Jouchi Nakajima

The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal funds rate (FFR) and cannot assess …

Vasco Cúrdia · Michael Woodford

Extending a New Keynesian model to give the central bank's balance sheet a genuine role in equilibrium determination, the authors distinguish three independent dimensions of monetary policy -- the …

Thomas J. Sargent

This paper studies the abrupt endings of four post-World War I European hyperinflations -- in Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Germany -- arguing that each stopped suddenly and at a comparatively low …

A. Lee Smith · Victor J. Valcarcel

This 2023 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control paper by A. Lee Smith and Victor J.

Bernardo Morais · José-Luis Peydró · Jessica Roldán-Peña · Claudia Ruiz-Ortega

Using the universe of business loans in Mexico matched to firm and bank balance sheets, this paper shows that each foreign monetary policy moves local credit supply mainly through banks headquartered …

Milton Friedman

This 1961 Journal of Political Economy paper is Milton Friedman's reply to J. M.

John B. Taylor

This 1995 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by John B. Taylor lays out an empirical framework for the monetary transmission mechanism and asks what it implies for the choice between fixed and …

Kenneth N. Kuttner · Patricia C. Mosser

This 2002 FRBNY Economic Policy Review article by Kenneth Kuttner and Patricia Mosser is a conference overview, not an original empirical study: it synthesizes papers presented at the Federal Reserve …

Robert G. King

King gives a simple exposition of the "New IS-LM model" -- a three-equation system of a forward-looking IS curve, a Fisher equation, and a New Keynesian (expectational) Phillips curve, each derivable …

Olivier Coibion · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Johannes Wieland

This 2012 Review of Economic Studies paper by Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Johannes Wieland asks what rate of steady-state (trend) inflation maximizes welfare in a New Keynesian DSGE …

Marvin Goodfriend

Dividing 1987-2001 into six phases -- the post-crash inflation of 1987-90, the Gulf War disinflation, the celebrated 1994-95 preemptive tightening, the near-full-credibility long boom, the 1999-2000 …

Christopher A. Sims

Outlining the fiscal theory of the price level and its implications for monetary policy under inflationary and deflationary stress, Sims argues that the Maastricht Treaty's elaborate monetary …

Richard Clarida · Jordi Galí · Mark Gertler

This widely cited survey derives monetary policy design from a simple forward-looking New Keynesian model, showing that optimal policy without commitment requires raising the nominal rate more than …

Refet S. Gürkaynak · Brian Sack · Eric Swanson

This 2005 American Economic Review paper by Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson asks whether long-term forward interest rates respond to daily macroeconomic and monetary-policy news, a …

Michael Woodford

Evaluating Taylor's interest-rate rule against an explicit optimizing New Keynesian model, this paper coins the "Taylor principle" -- that the nominal rate must eventually rise by more than any …

Gauti B. Eggertsson · Michael Woodford

This 2003 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity article by Gauti Eggertsson and Michael Woodford builds a fully dynamic New Keynesian general-equilibrium model — Calvo (1983) staggered pricing, money …

Silvia Miranda-Agrippino · Hélène Rey

A single global factor extracted from a large panel of risky asset prices traded around the world falls sharply after a US monetary contraction, alongside deleveraging by global banks, a rise in …

Olivier Coibion · Yuriy Gorodnichenko

This 2012 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko adjudicates between two observationally similar explanations for the federal funds rate target's …