E52

Marco Bassetto · David S Miller

Overview Research Question. Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to …

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Walker Ray · Dimitri Vayanos

Layer 1 — Core Argument The paper develops a two-country preferred-habitat model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles — currency traders with price-elastic …

Elliot Anenberg · Tess Scharlemann · Eileen van Straelen

Overview Research Question. Does monetary policy stimulate household borrowing and consumption by enabling cash-out mortgage refinancing (“the cash-out refinance channel”), or does it …

Michael Ehrmann · Phillipp Gnan · Kilian Rieder

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three …

Manuel Amador · Christopher Phelan

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? …

Ippei Fujiwara · Kiminori Matsuyama

Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …

Emil Holst Partsch · Ivan Petrella · Emiliano Santoro

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two …

Stefania D'Amico · Iryna Kaminska

Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England’s published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, …

Julien Bengui · Louphou Coulibaly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from …

Michael McLeay · Silvana Tenreyro

Layer 1 — Summary An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are …

Giacomo Lanzani

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that …

Cynthia L Doniger

Overview Research question. This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers’ educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare …

Brent Bundick · Isabel Cairó · Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in …

Renato Faccini · Seungcheol Lee · Ralph Luetticke · Morten O. Ravn · Tobias Renkin

Overview Research Question. How do consumer credit spreads — the gap between household borrowing rates and deposit rates — affect aggregate business cycle dynamics and the distribution of consumption …

Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in …

Serdar Birinci · Fatih Karahan · Yusuf Mercan · Kurt See

Overview Research question. The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly …

Maximilian Grimm · Òscar Jordà · Moritz Schularick · Alan M. Taylor

This paper provides the first long-run causal evidence that a persistently loose stance of monetary policy — defined as extended periods of low interest rates relative to the neutral rate — …

Sandra Daudignon · Oreste Tristani

This paper analyzes how monetary policy should respond to a long-run natural interest rate that can drift permanently — following a bounded random walk with upper bound 3 percent and lower bound 0 …

Michael T. Kiley

This paper examines optimal monetary policy under discretion when the loss function is asymmetric — placing greater weight on employment shortfalls than on equivalently sized employment strength. The …

Sebastian Schmidt

The paper builds a discrete-time DSGE model with Calvo sticky prices in which the public sector has two feedback rules that can hit corners, generating endogenous shifts between an …

Camelia Minoiu · Rebecca Zarutskie · Andrei Zlate

Overview Research Question. Minoiu, Zarutskie, and Zlate ask whether participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency facility launched in mid-2020 to channel credit …

RICHARD DENNIS · TATIANA KIRSANOVA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether …

Ojasvita Bahl · Chetan Ghate · Debdulal Mallick

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) routinely intervene in agricultural markets — procuring grain and redistributing it …

Tom D. Holden

The paper proposes and analyzes real rate rules — monetary policy rules of the form i_t = r_t + φπ_t (φ > 1), where r_t is the current-period real interest rate observed via TIPS yields or …

François Le Grand · Alaïs Martin-Baillon · Xavier Ragot

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should monetary policy deviate from price stability to address redistributive concerns in an economy with heterogeneous agents? The paper jointly solves for …

James Bullard · Alex Grimaud · Isabelle Salle · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Why did the 2021–2023 US inflation surge end in a soft landing — disinflation without a major recession — while the Volcker disinflation of 1979–1987 required …

MASAZUMI HATTORI · TOMOHIDE MINEYAMA · JOUCHI NAKAJIMA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal …

Xiaoming Li · Zheng Liu · Yuchao Peng · Zhiwei Xu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how changes in the composition (not the size) of Chinese local government debt influence bank risk-taking, credit allocation between privately …

Karlye Dilts Stedman · Andrew Hanson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper asks why unconventional monetary policy (UMP) spillovers from the European Central Bank (ECB) to the U.S. Treasury yield curve vary so substantially over …