This paper reformulates perturbation approximation of heterogeneous-agent models as the problem of finding directional derivatives that solve small, analytically-characterized linear systems -- a …
This paper builds a theory of macroprudential policy whose only friction is nominal rigidity in goods and labor markets, possibly combined with a constraint on monetary policy such as the zero lower …
This 2006 *American Economic Review* paper (circulated as NBER Working Paper 10592, June 2004) asks a question its own abstract answers in one word -- "Yes" -- are technology improvements …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Oct 2025Published Oct 2025
To what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the 2000s housing boom and bust? The existing literature offers sharply divergent answers — ranging from credit explaining virtually …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
How do aggregate economic fluctuations reallocate workers across the firm productivity distribution over the business cycle? In particular, to what extent do recessions impede workers' movement up the …
Sorting about 3,700 annual observations from 44 countries over roughly two centuries into four debt-to-GDP buckets, the authors find little relationship between public debt and growth below 90 percent …
This 2002 NBER Macroeconomics Annual paper by James Stock and Mark Watson documents and investigates the "Great Moderation": the standard deviation of annual U.S. real GDP growth fell from 2.7% over …
This 2005 *Journal of Monetary Economics* paper (circulated as NBER Working Paper 8726, January 2002) subjects a startling empirical result -- that identified "technology shocks" appear to *reduce* …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of EconomicsOnline 15 May 2025Published Jul 2025
Does the Great Recession reduce or increase mortality, and what are the welfare implications of incorporating recession-induced mortality changes into standard macroeconomic welfare frameworks?
PublishedReview of Economic StudiesOnline 30 Dec 2025Published Sep 2026
Anderson, Rebelo, and Wong study the behavior of markups in the retail sector across regions and over time, using a combination of firm-level Compustat data and product-level scanner data from two …
PublishedClassicJournal of Money, Credit and BankingPublished Apr 2004
Re-estimating the Clarida-Galí-Gertler forward-looking Fed policy rule using only the real-time Greenbook forecasts available to the FOMC at the time, rather than revised after-the-fact data, this …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsPublished Mar 2026
This paper asks whether Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data can be efficiently integrated into medium-scale DSGE models, and whether models with imperfectly rational expectations based on …
This 2006 *American Economic Review* paper (circulated as NBER Working Paper 10548, June 2004) develops a novel way to use the joint behavior of stock prices and measured total factor productivity …
PublishedJournal of Monetary EconomicsOnline 1 Mar 2026Published Mar 2026
Which measures of labor market tightness best predict nominal wage inflation, and do standard measures such as the unemployment rate and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio capture the relevant slack? …