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Almut Balleer · Georg Duernecker · Susanne Forstner · Johannes Goensch

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks two questions: (1) How do workers’ biased expectations about job finding and job separation shape the labor market equilibrium and wages? (2) …

Pol Campos-Mercade · Lorenz Goette · Thomas Graeber · Alexandre Kellogg · Charles Sprenger

This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …

Mohammed Abdellaoui · Philippe Colo · Brian Hill

Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …

Timothy Besley · Christopher Dann · Sacha Dray

This paper investigates whether individuals who have experienced stronger GDP growth over their lifetimes are more likely to trust their national government. The authors — Besley, Dann, and Dray — …

JULIO L. ORTIZ

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a “misspecified …

Peter Andre · Ingar Haaland · Christopher Roth · Mirko Wiederholt · Johannes Wohlfart

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates two related empirical questions in the context of the historic surge in US inflation in late 2021 and 2022: (1) What narratives—causal …

Yuliya Rychalovska · Sergey Slobodyan · Rafael Wouters

This paper asks whether Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data can be efficiently integrated into medium-scale DSGE models, and whether models with imperfectly rational expectations based on …