C32

Christoph Grosse-Steffen · Laura Pagenhardt · Malte Rieth

A central debate in fiscal policy is whether fiscal rules—numerical constraints on budget deficits or debt levels—impair a government’s ability to respond to adverse economic shocks, creating a …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Kirstin Hubrich · Yves S. Schüler · Daniel Waggoner

This paper investigates the role of leverage of financial institutions in amplifying the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, with particular attention to whether that amplification …

EMMANUEL DE VEIRMAN · JASPER DE JONG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The …

Ke-Li Xu

This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …

Thomas Drechsel

This paper combines a hand-collected archival data set of over 800 personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Federal Reserve officials from 1933 to 2016 with a narrative structural VAR to …

Jonas E. Arias · Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez · Daniel F. Waggoner

Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions are a widely used tool for estimating dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics. Critics—notably Baumeister and Hamilton …