5413 terms defined across 978 papers — each definition kept in the paper's own sense, attributed to its source.
5413 terms5563 definitions
These definitions are paper-scoped: each one keeps the term in the sense its source paper uses. Looking for a plain-language overview instead? See the curated glossary.
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A monetarist economy1 paper
The paper's simplifying description of an economy with (a) a common constant growth rate for real income and population, (b) a constant real return on government securities exceeding that growth rate, and (c) a quantity-theory demand schedule for base money with constant income velocity -- an economy chosen to "embrace[] as unqualified a set of monetarist assumptions as we can imagine," so that the paper's limits on monetary control cannot be attributed to abandoning any assumption monetarists themselves rely on (Section "Tighter money now can mean higher inflation eventually"). — Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
Abatement goods sector1 paper
In this paper, the sector producing intermediate inputs (abatement goods) purchased by final-goods firms to reduce their CO2 emissions. The sector is initially immature and highly concentrated, with high barriers to entry that prevent competition and keep abatement prices above the price of the final good. The paper models this sector with endogenous firm entry following Bilbiie, Ghironi, and Melitz (2012), distinguishing between incumbents (intensive margin) and startups (extensive margin). — Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Net-Zero Transition Costs
ABCD representation1 paper
the state-space form of a DSGE model used throughout the paper (following Fernandez-Villaverde et al. 2007), with an m x 1 state vector X_t, n x 1 observable vector Y_t, structural shocks eps_t entering through loading matrices B and D, and transition matrix A; the model is "stochastically singular" when D is not invertible (more shocks than observables), which the paper's main result explicitly rules out via Assumption 1. — VARMA representation of DSGE models
Ability Cutoff (am) in Residency Matching1 paper
In the paper's theoretical model, the minimum ability level required to gain entry into a restricted-entry specialty. Because the number of residency slots is fixed, the cutoff rises when a specialty's relative earnings increase (attracting more high-ability applicants), displacing lower-ability physicians who would otherwise have entered. This makes the earnings-specialty relationship nonmonotonic across the ability distribution. — The Earnings and Labor Supply of U.S. Physicians
Absolute advantage (in professional services)1 paper
A worker's log skill level in professional services, a(i) ≡ ln z_p(i), which determines output contribution to that sector independently of what the worker could earn elsewhere. In the model, absolute advantage is distributed Gumbel conditional on the worker's comparative advantages, with mean α(q_m, q_e) = α_m ln q_m + α_e ln q_e. — Selection, Structural Transformation, and the Cost Disease of Services
absolute bias criterion1 paper
the criterion that the 2SLS relative bias (standardized absolute bias) is below a threshold; equivalently, the 2SLS bias as a proportion of the maximum OLS bias; defined by Stock-Yogo (2005) and generalized here to the HAC-robust multi-instrument setting. — A Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors
Absolute emissions versus emissions intensity1 paper
the choice of dependent variable, which the authors treat as substantive rather than technical. Absolute national emissions are what carbon budgets and mitigation targets are written in, and a country can lower emissions per unit of output while still emitting more in total. Intensity ratios can also flatter large emitters whose output is growing, and dividing by a volatile denominator adds noise. The paper therefore uses total emissions with GDP as a control, and reports that the GDP-normalized version gives similar results. — The Effects of Financial Liberalization on Country-Level Emissions
Absolute versus conditional convergence1 paper
the paper's baseline assumption and its main alternative. Under absolute convergence "the autarkic interest rate converges to the world interest rate meaning that the autarkic economy eventually reaches the same steady state level of capital as the liberalized economy," so "[c]apital account liberalization in this framework, therefore, serves to expedite a country's convergence to its own steady state" -- the level effect comes only from arriving sooner, not from a higher terminal capital stock. Under conditional convergence, cross-country differences "in educational attainment, fertility decisions, technology, and institutions" give each country its own steady state pinned down by a country-specific interest rate, proxied by earnings-price ratios from stock market data; countries whose own rate is below the world rate gain more than under absolute convergence, and those above it gain less. — Do finite horizons matter? The welfare consequences of capital account liberalization
Acceptability and liquidity (vs. velocity) as moneyness measures1 paper
acceptability is the probability a good is accepted when offered in trade, and liquidity (for agent type *i* and good *j*) is the expected time until type *i* trades, directly or indirectly, into his own consumption good; the paper shows both track which goods are functioning as media of exchange far better than velocity of circulation does (Sec. V, pp. 946-948). — On Money as a Medium of Exchange
Acceptance policy function1 paper
A reduced-form function mapping consumer attributes, consumer unobservables, and the choice-set shifter to a binary accept/reject decision by product j. Indexed by product and market, allowing arbitrary variation in selectivity across products and time. The consumer's latent choice set is defined as the set of products whose acceptance policy equals 1. — Demand Analysis under Latent Choice Constraints
Access costs1 paper
Mokyr's (2011) term for the cost of obtaining usable technical knowledge; the paper argues vernacular codification (dictionaries, translations) lowered these costs, and that linguistic distance from English/Latin-Greek roots and physical distance from Europe raised them. — Codification, Technology Absorption, and the Globalization of the Industrial Revolution
accommodation parameters (phi^d, phi^b)1 paper
the two structural parameters in BM's nonborrowed-reserves/policy equation that measure how much the Fed lets nonborrowed reserves adjust to absorb reserves-demand shocks (phi^d) and borrowing shocks (phi^b) rather than holding NBR (or the funds rate) fixed; setting these parameters to specific values nests the FFR, NBR, NBR/TR, and BR indicators as special cases, and their estimated values -- and the regime shift in them BM document around 1979-1982 -- are what identify how the Fed's operating procedure has changed over time. — Measuring Monetary Policy
Accounting numbers (as distinct from statistics)1 paper
the paper's own characterization of its reported decomposition shares -- a measure of how much of the actual, historical movement of the U.S. real exchange rate is attributable to each component, not "sample measures of some underlying population parameters," analogous to measuring the actual average height of people in a specific room rather than estimating a population average. — Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes
ACEL model1 paper
the estimated monetary DSGE model of Altig, Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Linde (2005), incorporating both real and nominal (firm-specific capital, price- and wage-setting) frictions and multiple shock types (two technology shocks plus a monetary-policy shock); used here as a richer, empirically-grounded data-generating process alongside the simpler RBC models. — Assessing Structural VARs
Acquirer excess (abnormal) return1 paper
Market-adjusted stock return of the acquiring firm over one-to-four quarters following the M&A announcement date, computed as the acquirer's raw return minus the contemporaneous country-specific equity index return from Global Financial Data. Used as a contemporaneous market signal of expected deal quality; a negative abnormal return at announcement is interpreted as the market assessing the acquisition as value-destroying. — Cross-Border Spillovers: How U.S. Monetary Conditions Affect M&As Around the World
Acquisitions vs. new capacity (ITA transaction-type distinction)1 paper
the International Trade Administration's classification of FDI transactions, used by the authors to separate transfers of existing assets (Mergers and Acquisitions, Equity Increases) from creation of new productive capacity (New Plant, Plant Expansion) -- a distinction the model is specifically about (foreign acquisitions of existing, informationally-opaque assets), with transfers showing far stronger exchange-rate sensitivity in the data than new capacity does. — Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach
Across-country wage compression1 paper
The reduction in the cross-country dispersion of wages within a multinational that results from wage anchoring. Because foreign establishment wages are partially pulled toward headquarters levels rather than fully adjusting to local wages, the multinational's within-firm wage distribution is more compressed across countries than it would be under purely localized wage-setting. In the paper's data, this compression is particularly pronounced for low-skill occupations in lower-income host countries. — Across-Country Wage Compression in Multinationals
active experimentation1 paper
producing (even at a loss) partly in order to generate data with future value — a bandit-like motive in which current negative-expected-value actions are taken because they produce information. — A Model of the Data Economy
Active fiscal / passive money (non-Ricardian) regime1 paper
the alternative regime, following Leeper (1991), in which fiscal policy sets the path of real primary surpluses independently of the price level, so the government-debt valuation equation alone determines a unique price level (not just inflation), "the same mechanism by which stock market prices are determined as the present value of dividends." In this regime the central bank remains free to set nominal rates via a Taylor rule, is not forced to "blow up the economy" to rule out alternative paths, and Cochrane notes this regime "is not inconsistent with empirical Taylor rule regressions," offering a coherent alternative account of how the price level is actually pinned down. — Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules
Active QT vs. passive QT1 paper
Active QT means the central bank actively sells bonds from its portfolio (as in New Zealand, Sweden and the UK); passive QT means allowing securities to run off as they mature, sometimes slowed by caps (as in the US and initially Sweden). In the paper's estimates active QT has larger effects on yields, particularly at longer maturities, and appears to work by steepening the yield curve, while passive QT has more muted effects concentrated at short maturities. — Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?
Active versus passive fiscal and monetary policy1 paper
Sims' use of Leeper's (1991) terminology throughout the paper's models: "active" fiscal policy sets the primary surplus exogenously, without regard to the level of outstanding debt, while "passive" fiscal policy adjusts the surplus to stabilize debt; similarly, "active" monetary policy responds more than one-for-one to inflation (satisfies the Taylor principle) while "passive" monetary policy does not. The paper's central theoretical point is that an active-money/active-fiscal combination can still yield a unique (if explosive) equilibrium, and that an active-fiscal/passive-money combination can leave monetary policy able to affect real activity in the short run while losing control of the long-run price level. — Stepping on a rake: The role of fiscal policy in the inflation of the 1970s
Active versus passive margin changes1 paper
A decomposition of gross margin changes into active changes (arising from retailer price decisions, irrespective of cost changes) and passive changes (arising when replacement cost changes but the retailer holds price fixed). Ninety-one percent of U.S. margin changes and 93 percent of Canadian changes are active. — Markups Across Space and Time
Active versus passive monetary policy (in the Taylor-rule sense)1 paper
a policy is "active" at a steady-state inflation rate if the interest-rate feedback rule's slope there exceeds one (R′(π) > 1, a more-than-one-for-one response to inflation) and "passive" if the slope is less than one; the paper's central finding is that the zero lower bound on nominal rates forces any continuous, non-decreasing feedback rule supporting an active steady state to also admit a passive one. — The Perils of Taylor Rules
Active versus passive ("Ricardian") fiscal and monetary policy1 paper
Leeper's (1991) taxonomy, used throughout the paper: "passive" (Woodford's "Ricardian") fiscal policy raises the primary surplus more than enough to offset a rise in real debt, while "active" fiscal policy sets the surplus without regard to the debt level; "active" monetary policy raises the interest rate (or otherwise responds) to a rising price level, while "passive" monetary policy does not. A unique, stable price path requires exactly one of the fiscal or monetary "legs" of the model to be unstable (active) and the other stable (passive) -- either active-money/passive-fiscal or passive-money/active-fiscal -- while both stable or both unstable configurations respectively produce indeterminacy or non-existence in the paper's baseline case. — The Precarious Fiscal Foundations of EMU
Active vs. passive nonparticipants1 paper
Active nonparticipants received the survey invitation and declined because the incentive was insufficient; they tend to have higher labor market attachment. Passive nonparticipants never received or attended to the invitation but may respond to reminders; they tend to have been more adversely affected by the lockdown. This distinction motivates the two-dimensional model. — Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias
Activism index and inflationary bias from output-gap misperception1 paper
The paper's index γ/(β − 1), derived from the policy rule's steady-state condition, measuring how much (in percentage points) inflation would settle away from target if the output gap were persistently misperceived by one percentage point; the index is "around 1 for the policy rules describing the Great Inflation but only about one quarter as high for the post-1979 sample" (p. 14, Table 3), translating into an estimated inflationary bias of about 4.4 percentage points before mid-1979 versus about 1.2 points afterward. — Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation, A View from the Trenches
Actual (statistical) transition probability1 paper
The paper defines actual transition probabilities not as raw sample transition rates but as individual-level predicted probabilities from probit models estimated on realized transitions within 24 months, conditional on a comprehensive set of individual, job, and employer characteristics observed at interview time. These are rounded to the nearest decile for comparability with the survey's discrete response format. — Biased expectations and labor market outcomes: Evidence from German survey data and implications for the East–West wage gap
ACUMCA, ACUMFL and IPNFA1 paper
the paper's three measures of the net external position, kept distinct rather than merged. ACUMCA is the cumulated current account adjusted for capital transfers, debt reduction and forgiveness, and valuation changes including capital gains on equity and FDI; it is available for all 67 countries over 1970-1998 and estimates debt assets residually. ACUMFL, used for developing countries, instead sums the separately estimated stocks, taking debt liabilities from World Bank data and estimating debt assets as cumulative recorded outflows plus errors and omissions. IPNFA is the officially reported International Investment Position net of gold, available for industrial and a few developing countries, typically only from 1980. In accounting terms ACUMCA and ACUMFL are equivalent, "but they may cease to be so once we make use of existing stock measures for some of the cumulative capital flows." — The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries
Ad hoc macroeconomic model1 paper
the authors' term for their four-equation macro system (aggregate supply, aggregate demand/IS, portfolio balance/LM, and capital-stock accumulation, plus autoregressive exogenous-variable processes), explicitly not derived from a consistent set of assumptions about individuals' and firms' objective functions and information -- a "deplorable feature" the authors accept because the model closely resembles the macroeconometric models actually in policy use. — "Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule
Ad Load (alpha)1 paper
The Poisson rate at which ads are displayed to a user per unit time. Total ad displays follow a Poisson(alpha*T) distribution. Higher ad load means less time on entertaining content — expected entertainment time is (1-alpha)*T — and a higher probability (1 - exp(-alpha*T)) that the user sees the ad at least once. The platform chooses alpha as its primary instrument for extracting surplus from naïve users. — Online Business Models, Digital Ads, and User Welfare
Adapting to irrelevance1 paper
Staying within the class of models covered by the theorem — accepting that risk parameters do not affect first-moment impulse responses — but driving business cycle dynamics primarily with shocks to higher-moment states (volatility, risk aversion). Requires additional mechanisms (nominal rigidities, reallocation channels) to maintain positive comovement of consumption, investment, and labor, which higher-moment shocks cannot generate in the neoclassical structure alone. — An irrelevance theorem for risk aversion and time-varying risk
Adaptive-expectations mechanism1 paper
following Cagan, the postulate that the (algebraic) rate of change of the expected rate of inflation is an increasing function of the excess of the actual inflation rate over the expected rate, equal to zero when that excess is zero; formally dx/dt = -a(p/p + x) with a(0) = 0, a' > 0, which combined with the Quasi-Phillips Curve yields the law of motion x-dot = G(y), G(y*) = 0, G' < 0 (Part I.B, pp. 262-264, eq. 3-5). — Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time
Adaptive Learning (AL)1 paper
An expectation-formation mechanism in which agents do not know true model parameters and instead estimate linear forecasting models (PLMs) that are updated each period via a Kalman filter algorithm. This produces a time-varying Actual Law of Motion — transmission parameters mu_t, T_t, R_t all evolve with beliefs — enabling endogenous trend drift and time-varying shock responses absent from RE models with fixed coefficients. — Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Adaptive regression (parameter drift)1 paper
Cooley and Prescott's proposed alternative to the fixed-parameter view, in which the parameter vector θ follows a random walk (θ_{t+1} = θ_t + η_{t+1}); Lucas uses it positively, as a descriptive model of how large-model forecasters actually behave (revising intercepts based on recent runs of residuals, frequent re-fitting), reconciling good short-term forecast accuracy with the paper's claim that long-run policy simulations from the same models are meaningless. — Econometric policy evaluation: A critique
Additionality1 paper
The expected impact of contracting on a landowner's conservation action — formally, tau(c) = E[1 - a_i0 | c = c_i], the probability that a landowner would not have conserved absent the incentive. A landowner is additional if she would have cropped without the CRP contract; the social benefit of contracting depends only on this incremental conservation impact. — Additionality and Asymmetric Information in Environmental Markets: Evidence from Conservation Auctions
ADHD match signal (x_i)1 paper
A physician-observed, noisy signal of a patient's true latent ADHD risk (v_i), observed only conditional on the patient receiving a behavioral assessment. In estimation, it is proxied via a cosine similarity measure between the patient's aggregated clinical doctor note text and the DSM-V symptom list, constructed separately for inattentive and hyperactive/impulsive sub-types. — Mis(sed) Diagnosis: Physician Decision Making and ADHD
Adjacency result for currency-union formation1 paper
The paper's equilibrium configuration theorem (Sec. IV.B): if countries i and i+2 belong to the same currency union, country i+1 must also belong to it -- currency unions form among countries that are adjacent in the sense of being close in distance, trading heavily, and having correlated business-cycle shocks, not among arbitrarily dispersed sets of countries. — Currency Unions
Adjacent complementarity1 paper
the condition, introduced by Ryder and Heal (1973) and adopted here as the formal definition of potential addiction, under which the rise over time in the marginal utility of a good from a higher stock of past consumption exceeds the corresponding rise in the good's "full price" (eq. 16); the paper shows it is necessary and sufficient both for potential addiction and for present and future consumption to be Slutsky complements (Sec. IV, VI). — A Theory of Rational Addiction
adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)1 paper
a mortgage where the interest rate resets with market rates (at intervals shorter than 12 months for the paper's classification); holders feel policy rate changes immediately in their monthly payments, amplifying the cash-flow channel; the paper finds ARM share in new flows rises after monetary tightening due to budget constraint effects. — Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission
Adjusted Bag-of-Words (BOW) cosine similarity1 paper
The NLP method used to construct the ADHD match signal proxy. Patient notes are tokenized into uni-grams and bi-grams after preprocessing (spell check, abbreviation replacement, part-of-speech tagging, synonym replacement), and tf-idf weighted. The cosine similarity between the resulting document vector and the DSM-V symptom text vector is computed separately for each ADHD sub-type and rescaled to [0,1]. — Mis(sed) Diagnosis: Physician Decision Making and ADHD
Adjusted gross rate of return / riskfree rate (R, Rf)1 paper
R ≡ (1+r)/G and Rf ≡ (1+rf)/G, where r is the net return on capital, rf is the riskfree interest rate on bonds, and G = 1+g is the gross growth rate. Expressing returns in these "adjusted" gross units scales out balanced growth and simplifies the sustainability condition to Rf ≤ 1 (equivalently, rf ≤ g). — Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality
Adjusted market value1 paper
the market-capitalisation weights used for the value-weighted benchmark: capitalisation data from Morgan Stanley Capital International "but with corrections for intercorporate equity holdings as in our earlier article," i.e. excluding cross-holdings between corporations from total market value, and corresponding to June 1990 values. The correction is not cosmetic for this exercise: "[t]he adjustment reduces the importance of the Japanese and German markets," and so changes how underweighted or overweighted a given national portfolio looks. — Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets
Adjusted Years of Schooling (AdjYearsEduc)1 paper
The paper's harmonized education variable across more than 1,000 surveys spanning eight decades. Because raw educational categories change over time and represent different selectivity (e.g., in 1940 only one-quarter of adults had completed twelfth grade, versus nearly 90 percent today), the authors use Census microdata to predict years of schooling as a function of self-reported educational category, sex, race, year, and birth cohort in ten-year bins. This provides a common unit of measurement across surveys with incompatible category systems. — "Compensate the Losers?" Economic Policy and the Origins of U.S. Partisan Realignment
Administratively-estimated earnings risk1 paper
risk inferred from the cross-sectional distribution of realized earnings growth within demographic/earnings cells (as in Guvenen et al., 2021), which relies on the assumption that workers within a cell draw from the same underlying distribution. — Subjective Earnings Risk
Admissibility (welfare)1 paper
A rule d is admissible if no rule d' weakly dominates it in expected welfare at every theta with strict improvement at some theta. Under partial identification with Gaussian likelihood, every rule is admissible — admissibility has no refinement power. — Decision Theory for Treatment Choice Problems with Partial Identification
Admissible region (of risk-free rate/equity-premium pairs)1 paper
the set of (average risk-free rate, average equity risk premium) pairs that the model can generate for any preference-parameter pair (alpha, beta) with 0 < alpha < 10 and 0 < beta < 1, given the consumption process calibrated to U.S. 1889-1978 data; plotted in fig. 4, the observed U.S. pair (0.80 percent, 6.18 percent) lies far outside this region, whose maximum attainable premium is 0.35 percent (Section 4, pp. 155-156, Appendix, pp. 159-160). — The equity premium: A puzzle
Adoption Sunk Cost1 paper
The one-time upfront cost c_s a non-adopter must pay to initiate JIT status, which exceeds the continuation cost c_f paid by existing JIT firms to maintain their status; the gap between these costs generates hysteresis in the adoption decision. — Spread too thin: The impact of lean inventories
Adult Labor Market Access (vs. Childhood Developmental Exposure)1 paper
A distinction the paper draws in explaining why children born in treated counties had higher adult earnings. The "developmental exposure" mechanism (as in Chetty and Hendren 2018b) implies benefits scale with the amount of time spent in an improved childhood environment. The "adult labor market access" mechanism means children benefit irrespective of years of childhood exposure because they can access improved local labor market conditions when they reach working age as adults — what the paper operationalizes through the finding that earnings effects are entirely accounted for by 1979 county of residence and are concentrated among individuals who remain in their birth counties. — The Long-Run Impacts of Public Industrial Investment on Local Development and Economic Mobility: Evidence from World War II
the pattern in which more creditworthy, higher-income borrowers are the ones most likely to avoid collateral requirements, the reverse of the adverse selection typically assumed in collateral models; consistent with these borrowers having strong repayment intent independent of the lien. — The Cost of Consumer Collateral: Evidence From Bunching
adverse retention1 paper
the post-CARD-Act phenomenon in which borrowers who become higher-risk are less likely to attrite (because their pricing is not raised) while borrowers who become lower-risk are more likely to leave (because their favorable pricing is no longer reinforced); the paper estimates a 0.7 percentage point drop in quarterly attrition hazard per 100 basis points of under-pricing of emergent risk. — Private Information and Price Regulation in the US Credit Card Market
Adverse Selection1 paper
The positive correlation between landowner cost of accepting a contract and additionality. Because landowners with low costs are low-cost partly because they expected to conserve regardless of the program, lower-cost participants are less socially valuable. This upward-sloping contract value curve mirrors adverse selection in insurance markets as modeled by Einav, Finkelstein, and Cullen (2010). — Additionality and Asymmetric Information in Environmental Markets: Evidence from Conservation Auctions
Adverse Selection Death Spiral1 paper
The Akerlof (1970) mechanism in which high-risk consumers disproportionately purchase insurance, causing insurers to raise premiums, which deters low-risk consumers, which further raises the average risk of purchasers, ultimately driving equilibrium quantity to zero. The paper's calibrated equilibrium model finds this outcome under future PGI accuracy for the HRS CAD contract. — Genetic Prediction and Adverse Selection
Adverse selection discount (mu_t)1 paper
In this paper, the per-unit discount arising from adverse selection, defined as the endogenous equilibrium fraction of low-quality loans in the aggregate supply of traded loans (S_B_t / S_t); this fraction is determined jointly with prices and lenders' trading decisions, and rises when household default risk increases. — Mortgage securitization and information frictions in general equilibrium
Adverse-selection effect of the interest rate1 paper
the tendency of a higher contract interest rate to change the composition of the applicant pool toward riskier borrowers, because the critical riskiness threshold below which a firm still finds borrowing worthwhile rises with the rate charged (pp. 393-397, Theorem 2). — Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information
Adverse Selection (in iBuyer context)1 paper
The problem arising because sellers possess soft private information about their property (odors, hidden defects, neighbor quality) that algorithmic valuation models cannot capture, while traditional buyers can acquire this information through physical visits. Because iBuyers price quickly without visits, they disproportionately attract sellers of unobservably lower-quality homes, as measured in the paper by the calibrated parameter α = 0.35 (the fraction of low-quality homes the intermediary correctly identifies). — Why Is Intermediating Houses So Difficult? Evidence from iBuyers
Adverse Selection (in RGI context)1 paper
The tendency of renters with higher default risk to self-select into RGI when access is unrestricted, worsening the insurer's risk pool and driving up expected payouts relative to premiums. — Rent Guarantee Insurance
Adverse selection multiplier1 paper
The amplification factor arising from private information in the securitization market: as household credit risk rises, sellers' incentives to offload low-quality loans worsen pool quality, causing buyers to demand a larger discount, which causes more lenders to withdraw from selling, creating a feedback loop that magnifies the initial shock to credit supply. Quantified at 1.5 for the GFC episode. — Mortgage securitization and information frictions in general equilibrium
Advertising Game:1 paper
A restricted subgame of the full market game in which firms choose their advertising strategies G_i taking the symmetric price as given. An equilibrium in the advertising game is a necessary condition for equilibrium in the full game. The advertising game's equilibrium uniquely pins down G* independently of the price level (under the baseline model without binding outside option). — Competitive Advertising and Pricing
AEMP (inflation is "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon")1 paper
Friedman's proposition, as Nelson interprets it, that a sustained g-percentage-point change in inflation requires the central bank to allow steady-state money growth to change by g points; it is a claim about the steady state and about money growth (not the price level), qualified by the possibility of one-time price-level shocks and by long lags from money growth to inflation -- not a claim that money enters the economy's contemporaneous price-setting equations. — The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis
Affect-cued recall1 paper
the mechanism the paper proposes: negative (positive) household-level events generate negative (positive) affect, which cues recall of past price experiences carrying similar affective valence, which in turn raises (lowers) both backcasts and forecasts. Because large price increases carry negative affect for most people, any other negative experience — a pay cut, an adverse health event — makes those episodes easier to recall. — Beliefs About the Economy are Excessively Sensitive to Household-Level Shocks: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data
Affective versus cognitive components of prejudice1 paper
A distinction between emotional aspects of prejudice (feelings, empathy) — which the authors find to be more responsive to the documentary intervention — and cognitive aspects (negative stereotypes, discriminatory opinions) — which show no significant change despite new information acquisition. — Leveraging Virtual Contact and Social Networks to Foster Interethnic Harmony
Affiliation (across firm values)1 paper
A technical condition borrowed from auction theory (Milgrom and Weber, 1982) used in the paper's model to characterize the correlation structure of firms' private valuations of filling a position. Affiliation implies that when one firm has a high value, others are also more likely to have high values, and hence to offer high wages — generating the model's equilibrium wage dispersion. — What's My Employee Worth? The Effects of Salary Benchmarking
Affinity in the state1 paper
The assumption that π(p, s) is affine (linearly increasing) in s for each price p. This implies E[π(p,s)] = π(p, E[s]), so expected profit is determined entirely by the expected state, enabling the reduction of the disclosure problem to choosing a distribution of posterior means. — Collusion with Optimal Information Disclosure
After-tax oil price elasticity of exploration1 paper
The percentage change in exploration expenditure per one-percent change in the after-tax oil price, estimated via 2SLS instrumenting the after-tax price with production taxes. The preferred estimate is 1.96, implying elastic exploration responses to tax-driven price changes. — Quantifying Supply-Side Climate Policies
Age-earnings profile (ε^{i,ζ}_j)1 paper
The deterministic, skill-race-age-specific component of labor income estimated from PSID data for each of six race-education groups. The gap between Black and White age-earnings profiles is identified as the dominant driver of both the racial wealth gap and racial crime disparities, accounting for the largest single-factor reduction in both outcomes across all counterfactual experiments. — Racial disparities in crime and wealth
Agency costs of debt (asset substitution / risk-shifting)1 paper
the incentive, modeled via option-pricing logic, for equity holders in a levered firm to switch from lower-variance to higher-variance investments after debt is sold, because equity's payoff resembles a call option on firm value whose worth rises with volatility; combined with the monitoring costs this incentive induces lenders to incur and with bankruptcy and reorganization costs, this forms the debt-side counterpart to the agency costs of outside equity, and the paper's proposed capital-structure theory sets leverage at the point that minimizes the sum of the two. — Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure
Agency friction (diversion problem)1 paper
Banks can divert a fraction λ of their assets; if they do so, depositors can recover only the fraction (1 − λ) and the bank is liquidated. This threat limits depositors' willingness to supply funds, resulting in an incentive-compatibility constraint on bank leverage: assets cannot exceed ϱt/λ (where ϱt is the bank's franchise value multiplier). When ϱt declines (because expected excess returns fall), the constraint binds more tightly and the spread between the return on assets and the deposit rate must be positive to sustain bank participation. — Financial Frictions: Micro versus Macro Volatility
Agency relationship and agency costs1 paper
a contract in which one party (the principal) delegates decision-making authority to another (the agent); because both are assumed to be utility maximizers whose interests diverge, agency costs are defined as the sum of the principal's monitoring expenditures, the agent's bonding expenditures, and the "residual loss" -- the dollar value of the welfare reduction to the principal from whatever behavioral divergence remains even after optimal monitoring and bonding. — Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure
The elasticity of local labor productivity to local employment in the production function, governing the feedback of employment changes on production costs and thus on excess labor demand. The authors estimate ψ = 0.56 for U.S. CZs — roughly twice the Krugman (1980) value and far above the zero assumed in Ricardian frameworks — and show it is the key parameter that amplifies both direct and indirect responses to trade shocks and determines model fit. — General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement
Aggregate consumption externality1 paper
the source of inefficiency the paper identifies (Section 4.3): private agents take interest rates and the market price of risk as given when choosing consumption, so they do not internalize that higher aggregate consumption improves everyone's idiosyncratic risk sharing (by raising entrepreneurs' net worth relative to the risk they bear). In the competitive equilibrium, "lower consumption in turn makes risk sharing even worse and raises the risk premium even more, further reducing employment and output in a negative feedback loop" -- a vicious cycle the constrained-efficient planner breaks by stimulating consumption and employment during downturns. — Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions
Aggregate consumption function1 paper
the paper's central analytical result, C = (p+θ)(H+W) -- aggregate consumption as a linear function of aggregate human wealth H and aggregate non-human wealth W -- obtained despite agents differing in age and wealth, because the constant-death-probability assumption gives every living agent, regardless of age, the same horizon and propensity to consume (Sec. I). — Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons
Aggregate demand complementarities (household-firm)1 paper
The paper's finding (Section 7) that combining heterogeneous households and heterogeneous firms in the same model amplifies fiscal multipliers beyond what either heterogeneity source produces alone, because a demand-side shock (e.g. a transfer) raises household income (stimulating high-MPC consumption) and firm cash flow (stimulating high-MPI investment) simultaneously, entering the model's Keynesian-cross multiplier as 1/(1 - MPC_weighted - MPI_weighted); in the paper's calibration this raises the response to a firm transfer by about 20% relative to the heterogeneous-firm-only model. — New Keynesian Economics with Household and Firm Heterogeneity
Aggregate demand externality2 papers
the externality at the centre of the paper -- ex post, the distribution of wealth across agents affects aggregate demand and hence output, because agents differ in their marginal propensities to spend, but ex ante these macroeconomic consequences "are not internalized in private financial decisions"; unlike the pecuniary externalities that dominate the prior macroprudential literature, it does not require incomplete markets or price-dependent borrowing constraints, only nominal rigidities (and, in the cases of interest, a binding constraint on monetary policy). — A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities
the externality (as in Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe 2016 and Farhi and Werning 2016) by which an individual agent's borrowing raises external debt and, given nominal rigidities and the ZLB, makes the economy more vulnerable to a future demand-driven contraction; it is the market failure that prudential policy targets in this model. — Liquidity Traps, Prudential Policies, and International Spillovers
Aggregate effective risk aversion (Gamma)1 paper
in the paper's model, the wealth-weighted average of the effective risk aversions of risk-neutral VaR-constrained global banks and risk-averse mean-variance asset managers, so that the global component of expected risky returns equals aggregate variance scaled by this term; empirically it is proxied by the inverse of the centred residual from projecting the global factor on realized global variance, and the paper notes the proxy could also reflect expected cash-flow growth or risk-free rates, which the VARs control for (Sections 2 and 4.1, fn. 17 and 34). — U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle
Aggregate error channel1 paper
the additional force by which strategic considerations and payoff externalities shape the subjective belief — creating an incentive to overestimate public precision when errors in the consensus reduce payoffs, and to underestimate it when the individual is better off if others are wrong. — Strategic Wishful Thinking: Implications for Forecasts
Aggregate foreign currency exposure (FX_AGG)1 paper
the paper's summary measure of a country's sensitivity to a uniform movement of its currency against all foreign currencies: the foreign-currency share of foreign assets times the asset share of gross cross-border holdings, minus the corresponding liability-side product; a negative value means depreciation destroys net foreign wealth (equation 16, Section 5.2.1). — Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures
Aggregate funding condition z1 paper
the authors' composite index of world funding conditions, z = log((1+f)/(1-theta)), rising in the aggregate pool of savings f and in the common fundamental theta; a high z is the paper's formalization of the "global savings glut," and it is what determines whether debt size helps or hurts -- the equilibrium threshold satisfies delta* <= 0 for every small-country size if and only if z >= 1. — A Model of Safe Asset Determination
Aggregate Incentive Compatibility (AIC)1 paper
The necessary and sufficient condition on the distribution of consumer valuations for the existence of a producer-optimal information structure; for each firm i and each candidate deviation price p_hat_i, the aggregate infra-marginal losses firm i would incur on its natural customers by lowering price to p_hat_i must weakly exceed the maximum revenue firm i could gain by attracting consumers who prefer rival products but have valuation for i above p_hat_i. — Market Segmentation through Information
Aggregate Investment Risk (Capital Depreciation Shocks)1 paper
Shocks to the aggregate capital depreciation rate calibrated following Barro (2006) as a 0.4% quarterly probability of a disaster that destroys 7.5% of the capital stock and causes a 10% annual GDP drop. Proposed as a replacement for near-linear Krusell-Smith aggregate productivity shocks to generate genuine nonlinearities in aggregate capital dynamics while remaining equally parsimonious. — An endogenous gridpoint method for distributional dynamics
Aggregate-stabilization vs. consumption-inequality trade-off across exchange-rate regimes1 paper
The paper's central open-economy policy finding (Sec. 4.2): fixed exchange-rate regimes amplify the aggregate consumption response to external shocks relative to a Taylor rule, as in standard representative-agent open-economy New Keynesian models, but they also *reduce* cross-household dispersion in that response, because defending the peg requires cutting domestic rates more sharply, which disproportionately benefits financially non-integrated and nontradable-sector households who are otherwise left out of the gains from currency appreciation-driven episodes -- so reducing distributional inequality from capital-market-linked shocks comes at the cost of larger aggregate (in particular, inflation) instability. — Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies
Aggregate state theta_t1 paper
The two-valued (theta_B bad, theta_G good) random fraction of buyers who become active and demand the DM good, equal to the level of aggregate demand; realized at the start of the DM with unbiased forecast theta-tilde_t derived from aggregated payment data. — Payment data, information disclosure, and privacy
Aggregate supply schedule (surprise-based)1 paper
the Lucas-type supply function (their equation 1) relating output directly to productive capacity and to the gap between the current price level and the public's own prior expectation of it, on the reasoning that suppliers mistake a surprise rise in the aggregate price level for a rise in the relative price of their own goods because they learn their own prices before they learn the aggregate price level. — "Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule
Aggregate Uncertainty1 paper
The paper's label for a distinct source of information friction in which firms are uncertain about the distribution of wages offered by other firms in the market — as opposed to uncertainty about individual worker characteristics. This uncertainty is assumed to be the primitive that generates equilibrium wage dispersion in the model, and its resolution through benchmarking is the mechanism driving the empirical results. — What's My Employee Worth? The Effects of Salary Benchmarking
Aggregate Welfare1 paper
The utilitarian sum of all families' expected utilities from their neighborhood–school assignments, not netting out neighborhood prices (so it includes the welfare of house sellers as passive agents); the comparison criterion for Theorems 3 and 4. — School Choice and the Housing Market
aggregation bias1 paper
The distortion that arises from using sector-level gross output prices to measure the price of goods and services across all final uses. Because only around 5% of services output is used for investment, the price of services-produced investment is averaged out of the services sector's aggregate price index — which is why prior work finds services investment prices rising while this paper finds them falling. — Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth
Aggregation-corrected estimates1 paper
the paper's empirical procedure of estimating the reallocation terms from the sectoral (industry-level) returns-to-scale estimates, subtracting them from observed aggregate gross-output and value-added growth, and re-regressing the residual on aggregate input growth (Table 3); this is offered, with explicit uncertainty, as a better (though not necessarily unbiased) estimate of the true weighted-average firm-level returns to scale than either the raw aggregate regression (Table 1) or the weighted average of industry-level regressions (Table 2). — Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications
Aggregation of differing individual expectations1 paper
because investors are assumed to differ in their critical rates r_c, the aggregate demand for cash -- the sum of individual all-or-nothing step functions -- can be approximated by a smooth, continuous, inversely sloped curve when the number of investors is large, even though no single investor's own demand curve is smooth; this is how Section 2 derives the textbook liquidity preference schedule from disagreement among investors rather than from any one investor's uncertainty (Section 2.4, p. 69, Figure 2.3). — Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk
Aggregation Problem1 paper
The paper's central methodological contribution — when gain-loss attitudes are heterogeneous and the EBRD treatment effect is non-linear in λ_i, the average treatment effect across a heterogeneous population need not equal the treatment effect at the average λ. In the exchange experiment, the aggregate treatment effect is precisely zero even though loss-averse and gain-seeking subjects each respond in the theoretically predicted (opposite) direction, because the concave relationship between λ_i and the exchange probability treatment effect causes negative gain-seeking effects to dominate in the aggregate. — De Gustibus and Disputes about Reference Dependence
Agnostic identification1 paper
Uhlig's term for identifying a structural shock by imposing sign restrictions only on variables *other than* the one whose response is the object of study (here, imposing them on prices, reserves, and the funds rate) while leaving that variable's own impulse response completely unrestricted, so the data -- not the identification scheme -- determine its behavior. — What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure
Agnostic identification / set identification1 paper
the paper identifies only the single monetary policy shock (not the full system of structural shocks), using restrictions that admit a range of structural parameter vectors consistent with the data rather than pinning down one point estimate; the authors describe the resulting wide posterior intervals as the "double-edged sword" of this approach. — The systematic component of monetary policy in SVARs: An agnostic identification procedure
Agricultural Modernization1 paper
As defined and used in this paper: the supply-side process by which rising wages induce producers to substitute from traditional, labor-intensive agricultural technology (τ=0, no purchased intermediate inputs) toward modern, input-intensive technology (τ=1, fertilizers, machinery, pesticides), which emits more GHG per calorie of output. This operates within each crop and is captured in the model by endogenous technology choice at the plot level. — Diet, Economic Development and Climate Change
AI as signal accuracy improvement1 paper
the paper's framework for thinking about AI's effect on decision quality: AI raises the precision of the signals that guide problem-solving, which leads to better individual and group decisions regardless of the specific mechanism. — AI and task efficiency
AI capability (z_i)1 paper
Firm-level ability to transform raw data into processed data. Firms with low AI capability may receive negative marginal value from additional raw data due to information entropy effects; firms with high AI capability extract large gains from the same raw data. — Comment on: Is it AI or data that drives market power?
AI exposure (ρ)1 paper
A firm-level parameter capturing the degree to which a job-match is subject to AI-driven displacement risk. The displacement option arrives at rate ρµAt per matched pair; ρ is calibrated at 0.618 using the average suitability-for-machine-learning score across O*NET occupations. The effective exposure measure is the product ρµ. — Artificial intelligence and technological unemployment
AKM Firm Effect (Wage Premium)1 paper
The firm fixed effect from the same two-way fixed effects regression, representing the pay premium a firm pays relative to what would be expected given its workforce composition. The paper uses the prior firm's AKM effect as a measure of a worker's outside option quality when testing whether prior-firm pay policy influences current pay under individual bargaining. — Bargaining and Inequality in the Labor Market
AKM Person Effect1 paper
A worker fixed effect estimated from a two-way fixed effects regression of log wages on worker and firm fixed effects (following Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis 1999). In this paper, AKM person effects are taken from Bellmann et al. (2020), estimated over 2010–2017 German population data. The paper provides evidence that these effects capture, in part, fixed differences in individual bargaining behavior rather than solely differences in productivity. — Bargaining and Inequality in the Labor Market
Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)1 paper
an annual, formula-determined cash payment to every eligible Alaska resident, funded from the state's oil royalties, whose size is driven mainly by the Fund's prior five years of investment earnings and is publicly estimable from monthly reports well before its official September announcement and October disbursement — the paper's natural experiment (Sec. I). — Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund
Algorithmic Accuracy1 paper
In the paper's terms, the informativeness of the algorithm's signal about s, formalized as the precision of the distribution F. Improving accuracy corresponds to a mean-preserving spread of F (Blackwell 1953). A more accurate algorithm always increases collusive profit; under the concavity condition on consumer surplus, it also reduces expected consumer surplus. — Collusion with Optimal Information Disclosure
Algorithmic Objective1 paper
The paper distinguishes between (1) the prediction component of audit selection — which model to use to forecast noncompliance — and (2) the objective component — what type of noncompliance to predict and pursue (overclaimed refundable credits versus total underreporting from any source). The paper finds that the objective, not just prediction error, is an independent driver of the racial audit disparity. — Measuring and Mitigating Racial Disparities in Tax Audits
Algorithmic Valuation Model (AVM)1 paper
The pricing technology used by iBuyers to value homes near-instantaneously using observable property characteristics. The paper measures AVM performance by the R-squared of a hedonic regression: over 80% for iBuyer transactions versus 68% for non-iBuyer transactions, with the residual representing information the algorithm misses and traditional buyers discover through visits. — Why Is Intermediating Houses So Difficult? Evidence from iBuyers
Allen-Gale (2000) rational bubbles framework1 paper
a one-period general equilibrium model in which banks lend to asset purchasers using deposit insurance, creating a wedge between private and social returns on risky assets; this paper adapts that framework to a mortgage/housing market with a continuous income distribution to generate endogenous bank sorting and an inequality channel. — Unequal and Unstable: Income Inequality and Bank Risk
Allen-Uzawa elasticity of substitution1 paper
A point elasticity measuring the percentage change in the ratio of two inputs in response to a percentage change in their price ratio, holding output and other input prices constant. In this paper, it is estimated as a structural parameter of the nested CES production function, normalized at sample geometric averages; values above 1 imply gross substitutability and values below 1 imply gross complementarity. — On the elasticity of substitution between labor and ICT and IP capital and traditional capital
Allocation mechanism (paper's usage)1 paper
The process by which managers discover workers' specific skills and match them to specialized jobs inside the firm, operating through lateral reallocation rather than through hiring, firing, or on-the-job training; identified in the paper as the primary channel through which high-flyer managers generate persistent wage and productivity gains. — Making the Invisible Hand Visible: Managers and the Allocation of Workers to Jobs
Allocative Efficiency (the view under test)1 paper
the survey's label for the position drawn from the Solow growth model, that liberalizing the capital account lets "[r]esources flow from capital-abundant developed countries, where the return to capital is low, to capital-scarce developing countries where the return to capital is high," reducing their cost of capital and "triggering a temporary increase in investment and growth that permanently raises their standard of living." Henry stresses what the position does not say -- "[t]he predictions of Allocative Efficiency hold only where there are no distortions to the economy other than barriers to free capital flows" -- which is precisely the objection the sceptical view (Rodrik, Bhagwati, Stiglitz) presses. — Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation
allowance scarcity expectations1 paper
market participants' beliefs about the future tightness of the EU ETS cap relative to aggregate emissions; the paper finds that the price surge since 2018 is consistent with a shift in these expectations driven by cap trajectory tightening and Market Stability Reserve reform, rather than with a speculative bubble. — EU ETS Market Expectations and Rational Bubbles
Alpha-spending constraint1 paper
A strengthened size requirement in group sequential trials that pre-allocates the total Type I error alpha across stages via a spending vector (alpha_1, ..., alpha_T); requires that conditional rejection probability at each stage t not exceed alpha_t, and sum alpha_t = alpha. — Optimal Tests Following Sequential Experiments
Ambiguity of the optimum saving rate's time path1 paper
Cass's finding that, without further restrictions on the shapes of the utility and production functions, the optimum path's saving rate need not move monotonically toward its long-run limit -- it "may increase (decrease) steadily or increase (decrease) and then decrease (increase)" even while capital per head moves monotonically toward the steady state, as illustrated by the Cobb-Douglas/constant-elasticity-of-marginal-utility case where the saving rate can rise, stay constant, or fall depending on parameter values. — Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation
amenity share1 paper
the fraction of total compensation (wages plus amenities) attributable to non-wage job attributes; estimated at 48.8% for men and 52.2% for women, indicating that amenities are quantitatively as important as wages in total compensation for both genders. — The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences
the paper's term for the pattern that the collateral constraint binds only in high-leverage states, so that one-standard-deviation shocks produce ordinary business-cycle responses most of the time and Sudden Stops in the states where the constraint binds. Amplification is the extra response of each aggregate relative to the same shock in the frictionless economy at the identical state; asymmetry is the finding that in non-Sudden-Stop states the two economies respond almost identically, so symmetric shocks generate asymmetric responses. — Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage
Amplification is conditional, not generic1 paper
The paper's finding that heterogeneity does not have a sign in general: relative to RANK, it may amplify or dampen the effects of aggregate shocks depending on the share of constrained agents and the cyclicality of fiscal transfers, among other factors, but -- the authors stress -- independently of the magnitude of nominal rigidities or of how monetary policy is conducted. — Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Insights from TANK models
Amplification loop between capital inflows and appreciation1 paper
the paper's central mechanism: cheaper bank funding raises lending, which requires capital inflows, which are associated with appreciation of the recipient currency, which lowers borrowers' default probability through their mismatch, which relaxes the leverage constraint and creates 'spare lending capacity' for more of the same; the paper emphasises that this works because 'the credit boom acts to suppress measured credit risk, rather than make apparent immediately the greater risks inherent in lending' (Sections 1 and 4.4). — Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy
The days between when workers are individually informed of their payment schedule (day 5) and when the interim payment is actually disbursed (day 8 or 9). This window serves as a within-experiment control: if effects arose from information about impending cash (e.g., through discounting, gift exchange, or trust), they should appear here. The consistent absence of treatment effects during this period is a key identification result. — Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?
Annuity-value welfare/revenue measure1 paper
the paper's method for comparing policies that involve a transition, not just steady states -- it simulates the economy's full transitional path (up to two thousand periods) under a new policy, computes the hypothetical constant proportional consumption increment (ΔC) that would equate lifetime utility along that path to the original steady-state utility level, and converts both this welfare measure and government revenue into their annuity-equivalent values (expressed as a percent of GNP) so that policies with different transition dynamics can be compared on a consistent basis. — The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations
Anti-establishment stance (AES)1 paper
One of two dimensions underlying the paper's populism score. Measured from Manifesto Project Database quasi-sentences on political corruption and anti-pluralism (political authority), capturing the core populist premise that the people are virtuous and the ruling class corrupt, leaving no room for pluralism or minority protection. — Populism and the Skill Content of Globalisation
Anti-transgender discrimination1 paper
In the paper's own measurement, the reduction in the probability that a worker is chosen because they are transgender (relative to being non-transgender), conditional on other delivery option characteristics. Measured in incentivized, privately-elicited binary hiring choices. — Silence to Solidarity: How Communication About a Minority Affects Discrimination
Anticipated component1 paper
the portion of an actual target change that was already expected by the market, computed residually as the actual change minus the unanticipated (surprise) component; under the efficient markets hypothesis this component should already be reflected in asset prices and so should carry a coefficient near zero in the event-study regressions. — Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market
Anticipated Future Taylor Rule Shocks (News Shocks)1 paper
Shocks to the Taylor rule that are known to agents at time t but materialize in a future period t+h. Following Laséen and Svensson (2011) and Del Negro et al. (2012), the paper embeds these in a New Keynesian model to show that anticipated future expansionary policy has contemporaneous expansionary effects through consumption smoothing and forward-looking pricing—the theoretical mechanism underpinning why TRDs at longer maturities affect current macroeconomic outcomes. — Taylor Rule Deviations Across Horizons: A Practical Tool for Monetary Policy
Anticipated non-Markov news shock1 paper
a shock that is known in advance and occurs at a specific date, as distinct from a recurrent draw from a stationary distribution. The distinction is the paper's methodological pivot: because the event is dated and non-recurrent, the model's solution is a *sequence* of decision rules that differ period by period, rather than one time-invariant rule. The authors' phrase for the contrast is that the Markov literature "view[s] shocks as recurrent random draws from a stationary Markov distribution whereas we consider shocks which are given by a sequence of historical events happening at given dates." — The Power of Open-Mouth Policies
Anticipated utility / steady-state learning1 paper
The paper's theoretical model allows for non-rational subjective expectations. Firms and households are modeled as 'anticipated utility' maximizers (Woodford 2013) who adjust expectations over time ('learning') but assume for current decisions that expected inflation will remain at its present rate — termed 'steady-state learning' by Evans and Honkapohja (2001). This assumption implies future prices evolve along a linear trend from current expectations, yielding a tractable closed-form link between current expectations and the sector-specific price-setting equation. — Identifying the Impact of Inflation Expectations
Anticipated-versus-unanticipated money as the identifying assumption1 paper
The paper's central methodological demand, following Kareken and Solow's observation that "one cannot deduce conclusions about the effects of monetary policy...without making some hypothesis...about what the course of events would have been had the monetary authorities acted differently" -- because the key identifying assumption is whether anticipated money has real effects (a,,y(L) = 0) or only unanticipated money does (a,,(L) = 0), any claim about policy's real effects requires an explicit monetary theory able to explain why some large monetary events (hyperinflation endings, currency reforms) appear neutral while others are claimed not to be (Section 3.3, pp. 64-66). — [What Ends Recessions?]: Comment
Anticipated versus unanticipated money shocks1 paper
The central lesson Lucas draws from the theoretical work of the 1970s -- that a fully anticipated, foreseen change in money growth acts as a mere units change (subject only to the inflation-tax effect below), while a monetary change that is not foreseen can move real output, because agents cannot immediately distinguish an aggregate monetary shock from an idiosyncratic real shift in demand for their own goods (pp. 260-261); every rational-expectations model surveyed in the lecture, however differently it generates the short-run non-neutrality, "carr[ies] the implication that anticipated money changes will not stimulate production and that at least some unanticipated changes can do so" (p. 261). — Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality
Anticipated/unanticipated money model (lambda)1 paper
the paper's flexible linear model (equation 3), y_t = a*(L)[lambda*m_t + (1-lambda)(m_t - E_(t-1)[m_t])] + b*(L)d_t, in which the parameter lambda in [0,1] specifies what fraction of money's effect on output comes from its anticipated versus unanticipated component; lambda = 0 recovers the standard Lucas-style unanticipated-money model, and lambda = 1 recovers a purely mechanistic money-output relationship with no expected/unexpected distinction (Section 2.2). — What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy
Anticipation channel (expectations effect)1 paper
The component of the macroeconomic response to public R&D spending that is activated at the time of the public announcement rather than at the time of actual spending. In the RE-SVAR model, this channel accounts for the extra GDP boost of approximately 21 dollars at t = 1 and a peak of 24 dollars after one year, relative to the counterfactual scenario of an unanticipated shock. — Macroeconomic Effects of Public R&D
Anticipation/propagation effects (HANK vs. TANK)1 paper
The paper's explanation for why its HANK multiplier is much larger than in a Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model calibrated to the same average quarterly MPC (Sec. 3.4.1): "hand-to-mouth agents in TANK respond only to the contemporaneous decrease in transfers, but not to the anticipated cut in future transfers," whereas households in the full HANK model respond to both current and expected future income changes. This dynamic, forward-looking response -- "future income increases... drive the contemporaneous consumption response" -- is present in HANK but structurally absent from TANK, producing a materially larger multiplier (e.g. 0.61 for HANK versus 1.05 for the as-if TANK economy under tax financing) even holding the current-period MPC fixed. — The Fiscal Multiplier
Anticipatory (forward-looking) policy movements1 paper
in this paper, funds-rate changes the Fed makes pre-emptively in response to its own Greenbook forecasts of future inflation and output growth, rather than in response to a deliberate, independent monetary policy decision; the authors argue these movements -- not endogeneity alone -- are the primary source of the price puzzle and are what Step 2 of the shock construction purges. — A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications
Anticipatory rate movement via the "threat" of future open market operations1 paper
Taylor's account of the mechanics through which a target-rate announcement moves the rate the same day: because the Trading Desk is expected (by the reaction function) to reduce the supply of balances tomorrow if the rate has not yet reached the new target, banks' expectation of tomorrow's rate rises today, which -- through the expectations-dependent demand equation -- shifts today's demand for balances and raises today's rate, even with zero change in the actual supply of balances on the announcement day (Section "Changes in the Daily Effective Rate in Response to Shocks"). — Expectations, Open Market Operations, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate
Anticipatory utility1 paper
the direct effect on current utility of anticipating a future experience, which is what a wishful thinker's belief choice maximises; the tension it creates is between accurate beliefs that lead to ex-post optimal actions and desirable beliefs that raise contemporaneous utility. — Strategic Wishful Thinking: Implications for Forecasts
Appropriate technology hypothesis1 paper
In this paper's usage, the claim (Basu-Weil 1998; Acemoglu-Zilibotti 2001) that establishments in poor countries underutilize sophisticated technologies because scarce human and physical capital limits the productivity gains those technologies embody. The paper's finding that the sophistication-performance association is not smaller in low-income countries runs counter to this hypothesis. — Technology Sophistication Across Establishments
Approximate aggregation1 paper
The paper's own coinage for its main finding: "in equilibrium, all aggregate variables -- consumption, the capital stock, and relative prices -- can be almost perfectly described as a function of two simple statistics: the mean of the wealth distribution and the aggregate productivity shock." The word "approximate" is load-bearing throughout -- strict aggregation does not obtain, higher moments of the wealth distribution do move substantially over time, and adding them to agents' forecasts "must significantly improve forecasts in a statistical sense"; the claim is only that those improvements "are minuscule in quantitative terms." — Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy
Approximate aggregation (and independence from it)1 paper
Khan and Thomas's property, following Krusell and Smith, that the aggregate capital stock alone almost completely captures how the firm distribution influences aggregate dynamics -- and the assumption the paper's method does not need. The paper's position is comparative rather than dismissive: where approximate aggregation holds "my method and the Krusell and Smith (1998) method are both viable," but the method is faster, and where it fails "extending Krusell and Smith (1998)'s algorithm would therefore require adding more moments to the forecasting rule, which quickly becomes infeasible since each additional moment adds another state variable." The paper demonstrates the failure case by making investment-specific shocks volatile enough. — A method for solving and estimating heterogeneous agent macro models
Approximate aggregation (and its misinterpretation)1 paper
Krusell and Smith's (1998) finding that the mean of the wealth distribution is sufficient to forecast future prices in many heterogeneous-agent models, which the paper argues has been widely misread as showing that heterogeneous- and representative-agent aggregate dynamics are "essentially equivalent" in general; the authors state plainly that "this interpretation of the original Krusell-Smith insight is inaccurate" (Section 2, p. 5) and that the misunderstanding is a key reason heterogeneous-agent models were, until recently, rarely used to study business cycles. — Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks
Approximate aggregation (Krusell-Smith)2 papers
Krusell and Smith's (1998) key result that, although consumption decision rules in SIM economies are generally concave in wealth so that perfect aggregation (as in the complete-markets case) fails in theory, in practice "in equilibrium all aggregate variables [...] can be almost perfectly described as a function of two simple statistics: the mean of the wealth distribution and the aggregate productivity shock" (p. 32); the authors stress this is not universal -- large redistributive shocks to wealth, such as Heathcote's (2005) tax-timing changes, can generate real effects with no representative-agent counterpart even when approximate aggregation holds in the Krusell-Smith sense. — Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households
the finding, due to Krusell and Smith (1998, 2006) and confirmed in this paper's own technology-shock exercise, that in some heterogeneous-agent models "everything one has to know about today's distribution of capital is the mean" for forecasting future aggregate capital with reasonable precision -- "higher moments of the distribution matter very little." The paper treats this as an empirical property of a particular model and shock structure, not a general law: its own tax-shock exercise (Section 5.3.1) shows a one-moment forecast "explains very little of the variation in aggregate capital" once redistributive shocks are added, so the paper's numbers should be read as "an upper bound" -- if a time-series forecast using n moments is already imprecise for the true model, a solution method that restricts households to forecasting with only those n moments cannot be expected to be precise either. — Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation
Approximately rational1 paper
Used here to mean that the Adam, Marcet and Beutel (2017) null — that the survey's covariance with a state variable equals the covariance of realized excess returns with the same variable — generally cannot be rejected at the 5% level. It is a failure to reject, not a demonstration of full rationality, and cyclical consumption is an exception. — Countercyclical Return Expectations: Evidence from the Livingston Survey
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)1 paper
A measure of binary classification performance used to quantify the predictability of bank failures; an uninformative predictor has AUC of 0.5, while AUC of 1.0 indicates perfect classification. In this paper, AUC ranges from 86% (historical, one-year horizon) to 95% (modern). — Failing Banks
arrest quality1 paper
The conditional probability that an arrest results in prosecution by the Dallas County Attorney's office; used as a revealed-preference measure of the officer's assessment of arrest strength. Higher arrest quality near shift end reflects greater selectivity under elevated private costs. — Professional Motivations in the Public Sector: Evidence from Police Officers
Arrow-Debreu security trade pattern1 paper
the special case (Eq. 2.1c, 4.25-4.26) in which each security pays one unit of the good in exactly one state; the paper shows the tendency to import the security for state s is governed simply by whether home output in that state is relatively scarce compared to foreign output in that state, i.e. by the relative scarcity of period-2 output state-by-state. — Trade in Risky Assets
Arrow securities (complete contingent-claims market)1 paper
a securities market with "an individual security with which one can promise to buy and sell units of both the first- and second-period consumption goods conditional on the state... being realized," for every possible state of the world -- letting agents insure against idiosyncratic productivity risk before it is realized, which the ex post bond structure cannot do. — Financial Structure and International Trade
Arrow–Pratt Absolute Risk Aversion (σ)1 paper
A quantitative measure of risk preferences computed from the paper's survey by eliciting the probability threshold α at which a respondent is indifferent between buying and not buying a lottery with prize Z = 100,000 JPY and price p = 10,000 JPY. Calculated as σ = (αZ² − 2αZp + p²) / (2(αZ − p)). Ranges from −4.5 to 0.891 in the sample, with σ = 0 indicating risk neutrality. — Marginal Propensity to Consume and Personal Characteristics: Evidence from Bank Transaction Data and Survey
Aruoba-Drechsel monetary policy shock1 paper
the external instrument used throughout, constructed in the authors' companion paper (2023) by applying natural-language-processing/machine-learning methods to Federal Reserve Greenbook (Tealbook) documents in the spirit of Romer and Romer's (2004) narrative approach; distinguished in this paper from market-based high-frequency surprise measures because it is meant to isolate exogenous variation in the funds-rate target without embedding information effects. — The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices
Ascending-join protocol1 paper
A specific dynamic protocol for k-item Vickrey auctions that poses threshold queries in ascending order after an initial guess, repeatedly asking agents whether they can rule out a particular outcome. It is maximally contextually private (Theorem 2) and minimally relatively informative among maximally contextually private protocols (Proposition 19), and it achieves privacy protection by delaying queries to agents whose privacy it protects (Proposition 7). — Contextually Private Mechanisms
Aspirations1 paper
Defined in this paper as desired goals for the future that motivate investment and effort in order to attain them (following Bandura, 1977; Locke and Latham, 1990). Measured via validated survey instruments asking respondents the level of income, assets, or children's education they would like to achieve in their lifetime — distinct from expectations (what one expects to achieve) and from the village maximum (what one believes the most successful person in the village could achieve). — The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-Term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia
Aspirations gap1 paper
The difference between an individual's aspired level of income, assets, or education and their current reported level. Median aspirations gaps in the sample are 55 percent of median wealth aspirations and 58 percent of median income aspirations, indicating that aspirations exceed current levels by meaningful but not unrealistic margins. — The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-Term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia
Assessment ratio1 paper
the ratio of assessed wealth to market wealth, required because assessors often did not value property at its market price and practices varied across time and place; multiplying through it converts the assessed values in the tax records into market values. — Wealth and Property Taxation in the United States
Asset demand and supply semielasticities1 paper
the two responses that convert the compositional effect into an equilibrium price change — how much desired wealth-to-GDP falls when the return rises, and how much the capital-output ratio rises. Both come from closed-form formulas requiring only macro aggregates and two parameters, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the elasticity of capital-labor substitution. In the central case they are 21.2 and 8.3, and their sum is the denominator in the headline calculation: 31.7 divided by 29.5 gives the 1.07 percentage point fall in the return. — Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
asset demand system / demand system asset pricing1 paper
an approach (introduced in Koijen and Yogo 2019 and here extended to international finance) that estimates asset demand functions on portfolio holdings data and analyzes the equilibrium relation between holdings/flows and prices, in place of traditional optimal portfolios. — Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
Asset-depletion time T = h(a; y)1 paper
The time it takes for the optimal consumer to fully run down her initial assets before settling into perpetual income consumption of y. The paper establishes a bijective mapping from initial assets a to depletion time T (Proposition 1); the closed-form solution is obtained by explicitly inverting this mapping. In the paper's formulation, h(a; y) = µ⁻¹(a) where µ(T) is derived from the ODE governing the consumption path. — Explicit consumption functions with borrowing constraints: A continuous-time approach
Asset-excluded households1 paper
the authors' term for households in the bottom 10% and bottom 50% of the wealth distribution who hold little to no equity and often no housing. The category is load-bearing for the paper's mechanism because it explains why the revaluation channel, which drives the distributional difference between conventional and unconventional policy at the top, is largely inoperative at the bottom: these households receive comparatively little from either the equity or the housing channel. — Unconventional but Different After All? A Unified Series of Narrative Monetary Policy Shocks
asset-liability maturity gap1 paper
the difference between the bank's asset average maturity and its deposit average maturity; measures the bank's exposure to interest rate risk; found here to be significantly larger for banks with higher senior exposure due to longer-maturity assets and stable retail deposit funding. — The Effects of an Aging Population on the Structure of Bank Assets and Liabilities
Asset-market cash-in-advance constraint1 paper
the paper's core departure from standard open-economy monetary models -- in addition to the usual requirement that goods purchases be paid for with currency, the representative household must also hold currency in advance to purchase bonds (Eqs. 2.a-2.b), so that a portion of the money stock is "trapped" in the asset market and unavailable to bid up goods prices (Section 2). — Liquidity and Exchange Rates
Asset-market segmentation (staggered participation)1 paper
the paper's central mechanism, inherited from Grossman-Weiss (1983) and Rotemberg (1984, 1985): in each period only a fraction (1 − γ) of agents are present in the asset market to absorb a monetary injection, with the remainder still on extended shopping trips in the goods market; this gives any money-supply change a disproportionate effect on the currently-present agents' currency holdings, consumption, and the resulting asset prices (Section 3). — Money and Exchange Rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg Model
Asset pledgeability (psi):1 paper
The fraction of a firm's assets recoverable by creditors in the event of default. In the model, equipment has higher pledgeability than other capital (estimated b_psi = 0.23 additional pledgeability for equipment, a_psi = 0.35 base). Higher pledgeability allows firms to sustain more debt and thus benefit more from the tax shield. — The Environmental Bias of Corporate Income Taxation
Asset-side versus liability-side FX measures1 paper
the paper's two-way split of its regulation data. Asset-side measures target domestic banks' FX assets and generally restrict FX lending to domestic corporates and households -- FX capital requirements, provisioning rules, risk weights on FX lending, and quantitative or qualitative FX lending standards such as loan-to-value or debt-to-income limits on FX loans. Liability-side measures target banks' FX funding -- FX reserve requirements and FX liquidity requirements such as liquidity coverage ratios or taxes on non-core FX liabilities -- and tend to bite on shorter-maturity flows. The paper finds only liability-side measures produce statistically significant leakage into corporate FX issuance. — Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?
Asset stranding channel1 paper
The mechanism through which an unanticipated tightening of carbon policy raises fossil firms' default probability on impact (by increasing compliance costs above the level priced into existing loan contracts) and subsequently reduces their loan demand permanently. The paper contrasts its treatment of this channel — where stranding affects bank regulation through aggregate deposit supply effects — against models (such as Carattini, Melkadze, and Heutel 2023) where stranding causes an inefficient credit crunch via a financial accelerator. — Climate change and the macroeconomics of bank capital regulation
Assignment Externality1 paper
The indirect dependence of a family's expected utility on other families' neighborhood choices, which operates through the effect of the population distribution across neighborhoods on the family's school assignment probabilities under DA or DN. This externality can preclude competitive equilibrium existence in discrete economies. — School Choice and the Housing Market
Assortative Matching1 paper
The equilibrium allocation of high-ability managers to high-type firms, arising because manager ability and firm type are complementary inputs into TFP (supermodular matching output). Matching is determined in a frictionless market with transferable utility. — Manager Pay Inequality and Market Power
Assortative mating along cultural-ethnic lines1 paper
The tendency for individuals to match with spouses of the same cultural-ethnic group. The paper finds positive assortative mating for all groups, with particularly strong homogamy for Sub-Saharan African and East Asian minorities, and explains it as the equilibrium outcome of the TU matching model given cultural intolerance preferences. — Marriage, Fertility, and Cultural Integration in Italy
Assortative mating on returns to wealth1 paper
Sorting at marriage on the *rate* at which each partner's wealth grows, as measured by their pre-marriage average return on assets — distinct from sorting on the level of wealth, and, in the paper's words, "a totally novel finding." Because returns proxy for wealth-management skill or risk tolerance, sorting on them determines how much return heterogeneity survives among couples. — Marriage, Assortative Mating, and Wealth Inequality
Assortment composition1 paper
The set of products stocked and the expenditure weights of those products within a region. The paper's central mechanism for regional markup variation — higher-income regions carry different (higher-quality, higher-margin) goods rather than charging different prices for the same goods. — Markups Across Space and Time
Assumption 1 (wedges shrink toward zero)1 paper
the identifying restriction under which the paper's conservative aggregate estimate is a lower bound: the policy weakly shrank each wedge toward zero without flipping its sign, and inputs weakly rose for firms with ex-ante positive wedges and weakly fell for firms with ex-ante negative wedges. Its force is that the smallest admissible pre-policy wedge for an ex-ante-taxed firm is the one implying the post-policy wedge is exactly zero -- that is, all residual post-policy dispersion in marginal revenue products is charged to mismeasurement rather than to misallocation. The paper defends the assumption with its own reduced-form results rather than asserting it. — Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence From India
Asymmetric capital-controls incentive1 paper
the result (Proposition 4) that a capitalists' government never finds it optimal to impose binding restrictions on private capital outflows (since doing so only constrains workers, whose welfare it disregards), while a workers' government always imposes some binding restriction (trading off workers' loss of consumption-smoothing against the gain of forcing capitalists to invest more domestically), with the tightness of the control decreasing in workers' degree of risk aversion. — External Debt, Capital Flight and Political Risk
Asymmetric investment adjustment cost1 paper
An extension of the machine manufacturer's production function that imposes convex costs when robot investment deviates above 5% from its steady-state level (parameterized by δ and ϱ). This specification makes it increasingly costly to rapidly scale up automation in response to large demand shocks, causing the machine price to spike and the automation outside option to cease being effective for marginal producers, thereby restoring workers' bargaining power and steepening the Phillips curve during large expansionary episodes. — Robot adoption and inflation dynamics
Asymmetric monetary policy spillovers1 paper
the paper's finding that under DCP monetary policy tightening in the dominant-currency country transmits strongly abroad while the reverse does not: the dominant country's own import prices barely respond to its appreciation, so its inflation moves little, whereas the periphery faces high pass-through into import prices, tightens endogenously through its Taylor rule, and cuts imports from everyone -- reducing both rest-of-world and global trade, while a tightening in a non-dominant country leaves rest-of-world trade nearly unchanged. — Dominant Currency Paradigm
Asymmetric output cost of default1 paper
The calibrated output loss from default, specified so that output is capped at a threshold while in autarky and therefore lost disproportionately when the shock is good. It is chosen for a technical reason -- it "make[s] the value of autarky a less sensitive function of the shock which is key for extending sufficiently the range" of debt levels carrying a positive but finite default premium, without which "the range of risky borrowing is very small" and historical default frequencies cannot be matched. The author offers an economic rationalisation via default disrupting private credit, citing a fall in Argentine cumulative private domestic credit to 53% of its pre-default level and firm-level Ecuadorean evidence, but presents the functional form as "this reduced form specification." — Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
Asymmetric persistence1 paper
The empirical fact, documented in the KFS, that log ARPK shows higher autocorrelation at the bottom quintile (ρ₁ = 0.897) than at the top quintile (ρ₅ = 0.443), confirmed by both a conditional autocorrelation regression and a quintile transition matrix. This asymmetry is a key moment used to identify and distinguish illiquidity frictions (which produce left-tail persistence) from collateral constraints (which produce right-tail persistence). — Entrepreneurial Investment Dynamics and the Wealth Distribution
Asymmetric persistence (paper's usage)1 paper
The empirical pattern in which the gains from gaining a high-flyer manager are large and durable, while losing a high-flyer manager (transitioning to a low-flyer) produces no corresponding negative effects on the outcomes of previously well-matched workers, implying that good matches, once formed, survive a change in manager quality. — Making the Invisible Hand Visible: Managers and the Allocation of Workers to Jobs
Asymmetry ratio1 paper
The ratio of the absolute value of the long-run house price (or GDP) response to a ten-percentage-point tightening in the cap to the absolute value of the response to a ten-percentage-point easing from the same initial cap level. A ratio exceeding one indicates that tightenings have larger effects than easings of equal magnitude from the same starting point. In the paper, this ratio is shown to depend critically on where the initial cap sits relative to the underlying distribution. — Heterogeneity and the Macro-Economic Effects of Changes in Loan-to-Value Limits
The long-run equilibrium toward which the model economy converges, characterized by a fully modernized (traditional sector vanished), small agricultural sector, constant growth rates of sectoral capitals, and standard neoclassical business cycle properties. The paper establishes conditions under which the ABGP is asymptotically stable. — Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective
Asymptotic Bias of VAR (aBias)1 paper
The scaled bias term T^{ζ}E[δ̂_h − θ_{h,T}] converging to aBias(δ̂_h) = trace{S^{-1}Ψ_h H Σ_{ℓ=1}^∞ α_ℓ D H'(A')^{ℓ-1}} − e'_{i*,n} Σ_{ℓ=1}^h A^{h-ℓ} H α_ℓ e_{j*,m}. This term is structurally absent from the LP asymptotics due to the double robustness mechanism. — Double Robustness of Local Projections and Some Unpleasant VARithmetic
Asymptotic Frequentism (Axiom 9)1 paper
A novel axiom requiring that conditional preferences after sufficiently long histories with the same empirical outcome frequency must be arbitrarily similar (in a quantitative sense defined by measuring rods x, y, E) to a limiting preference. This axiom axiomatically pins down the statistician type's linear time scaling: it implies that the ratio λ_{hₜ} / (LRT(hₜ, Q) / (2t)) converges to a finite limit c, exactly characterizing βₜ = ct. — Dynamic Concern for Misspecification
Asymptotic Representation Theorem (ART)1 paper
A result showing that the asymptotic power function of any test in the original sequential experiment can be matched by that of a test in a Gaussian-diffusion limit experiment; used to transfer optimality results from the limit to the original problem. — Optimal Tests Following Sequential Experiments
Asymptotically bubbly / asymptotically bubbleless equilibrium1 paper
the paper's classification of long-run equilibrium paths by whether the per-capita bubble converges to zero relative to the economy (asymptotically bubbleless, with the interest rate converging to the bubbleless-economy rate r̄) or remains non-negligible in the long run (asymptotically bubbly, with the interest rate converging to the population growth rate n); which type exists, and which is efficient, is pinned down by whether r̄ is above or below n (Sec. 3). — Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations
ATP (Supplementary Pension Fund) contributions1 paper
The paper's primary employment measure for years before 1980. Annual ATP contributions are proportional to hours worked: one-third contribution corresponds to 10–19 hours/week, two-thirds to 20–29 hours/week, and full contribution to 30 or more hours/week. Used to construct both a participation dummy and a full-time employment dummy (full ATP contribution = at least 30 hours/week). Crucially, the unemployed, self-employed, and those outside the labor force made no ATP contributions during this period. — Universal Daycare and Mothers' Working Lifetime
Attempted resolutions and why none is fully satisfying1 paper
The paper's review of proposed fixes -- imperfect information/delayed price-setter knowledge (Rotemberg-Woodford), Fuhrer-Moore-style contracts averaging past and expected future inflation, and outright adaptive (non-rational) expectations -- concluding each either fails to remove the puzzle (a short information delay "doesn't help the model match reality" beyond the delay horizon) or resolves it only by "questioning the assumption of rational expectations," which the paper calls "far from a satisfying resolution" given how closely monetary policy actions are publicly reported and scrutinized. — The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment
Attention Weight (alpha_{P,i})1 paper
A scalar in [0,1] assigned to feature i of the current problem P. For hedonic features, alpha_{P,i}<1 collapses perceived variation toward the menu average; for event features, alpha_{P,i}<1 compresses perceived probabilities toward uniform. Full attention alpha_{P,i}=1 recovers expected utility. Attention weights are the endogenous output of the recognition step, not fixed preference parameters. — A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice
Attentiveness index1 paper
A composite measure constructed from three unincentivized physical markers embedded in completed leaf plates: (i) number of double holes (pairs indicating a stitch was removed to correct a mistake); (ii) number of leaves used; (iii) number of stitches used. The index is normalized to the control group's post-pay distribution and reverse-coded so higher values denote better attentiveness. Workers were unaware these dimensions were measured. The index captures attentional lapses — unforced errors that increase the number of steps and time needed to complete each plate. — Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?
Attenuation effect1 paper
The dampening of monetary policy transmission to asset prices caused by the need to compensate risk-averse arbitrageurs for the increased risk they bear when accommodating the policy-induced excess demand. In the currency market, a home short-rate cut causes the CCT's expected return to rise (arbitrageurs must be paid more to hold foreign currency), which means the foreign currency appreciates less than UIP predicts. In the bond market, a short-rate cut causes the BCT's expected return to rise (term premia increase), so long yields fall less than EH predicts. — A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers
attenuation of monetary responses1 paper
the reduction in the aggressiveness of non-traditional monetary policy use relative to the unconstrained optimal policy, arising from the central bank's internalization of the political risk of independence loss associated with using non-traditional instruments. — Central Bank Independence at Low Interest Rates
Attributable (named) statement1 paper
A public statement clearly attributed to a specific, named member of the ECB Governing Council, reported as a breaking-news headline. Attributable statements serve both as a comparison benchmark for measuring the market impact of leaks and as a mitigation instrument when they counteract leak-induced market moves. — Central bank communication by ??? The economics of monetary policy leaks
Audit Disparity (D)1 paper
Defined in the paper as D = E[Y|B=1] - E[Y|B=0], the difference in audit rates between Black taxpayers (B=1) and non-Black taxpayers (B=0). This is a group-level difference in selection rates, not conditional on any other characteristic, and is the primary estimand throughout. — Measuring and Mitigating Racial Disparities in Tax Audits
Augmented gravity equation1 paper
The paper's empirical specification (Sec. 4.1, eq. p. 9) for bilateral trade: the standard gravity regressors (the product of GDP, the product of GDP per capita, log distance) plus a common land border, common language, shared regional trade agreement, common nationhood, shared colonizer, and colonial-relationship dummy, to which a currency-union dummy (CU) and a measure of bilateral exchange-rate volatility (V(e)) are added as the variables of central interest. — One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade
Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted (AIPW) Estimator1 paper
A two-stage causal estimator that first models the propensity score (probability of treatment) and then uses it to re-weight observed outcomes in a local projection, with an augmentation term from the predicted outcome model. It is doubly robust: the average treatment effect is consistently estimated if either the propensity model or the outcome model is correctly specified, but not necessarily both. — Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Reduction in Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Augmented Solow model1 paper
The paper's extension of the Solow model to include a second accumulable factor, human capital, with its own investment share and its own accumulation equation paralleling physical capital's. This predicts a larger, not smaller, impact of saving and population growth on income than the textbook model, because higher saving or lower population growth also raises the steady-state level of human capital (Sec. II, eqq. 8-12). — A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth
Autarky asset price decomposition1 paper
the result (Eq. 4.5) that any asset's no-trade price equals the present value of its expected return minus its risk measure, qⱼ = {E[Rⱼ] − Πⱼ}/(1+r), which lets the paper trace price differences across countries back to differences in interest rates (which move all asset prices together) versus differences in risk measures (which are asset-specific). — Trade in Risky Assets
Autarky experiment1 paper
the model variant in which all physical trade in goods and all trade in state-contingent financial claims between the two countries is eliminated, leaving technology-shock correlation as the only remaining link between the countries; used to isolate whether the model's excessive cross-country consumption correlation stems from international risk-sharing (it does not, since the correlation persists under autarky) or from some other channel (the authors argue it reflects the permanent-income effect of anticipated technology spillovers). — International Real Business Cycles
Autarky risk measure (Πⱼ)1 paper
defined (Eq. 4.4) as Πⱼ ≡ −Cov[U_c(y_2)Rⱼ]/E[U_c(y_2)], the negative of the covariance between an asset's state-contingent returns and the marginal utility of the country's own future consumption, scaled by expected marginal utility; positive values mean the asset is riskier than the sure bond, negative values mean it is less risky than the sure bond (Section 4b). — Trade in Risky Assets
Auto-enrollment default contribution rate1 paper
The positive contribution rate at which new hires are automatically enrolled in a defined-contribution plan, with the option to opt out by incurring the opt-out cost. In the paper's estimation sample, this is 3% of salary. The default is exogenous at the start of each new job but endogenous thereafter: once established, the default for subsequent periods equals the worker's contribution rate in the previous period. — Default Options and Retirement Saving Dynamics
Automatic input (a)1 paper
In the authors' behavioral model, one of two inputs into production. Unlike "effortful" input (e), which the worker consciously controls (speed of hands, consciously directed attention), the automatic input captures cognitive functions that are beyond the worker's full control — background attentional processes that can be degraded by financial strain even when a worker is motivated and exerting high effort. The key behavioral assumption is that a falls when financial strain is high, independently of chosen effort. — Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?
Automation frontier1 paper
The marginal task at which the cost of capital use exactly equals the cost of labor use, i.e., the task a_t at which lambda(a_t)/theta(a_t) = w_t/R_t. Tasks with indices below this frontier are automated; tasks above are performed by labor. As the wage-to-rental ratio rises, the frontier expands (more tasks become automated), capturing the central mechanism by which capital deepening drives automation. — The macroeconomics of automation
Automation threshold (γ*)1 paper
The paper-specific level of idiosyncratic labor efficiency at which a producer is indifferent between installing a robot and posting a vacancy. Producers with labor efficiency below γ* choose the machine technology; those above choose the labor technology. The threshold is determined by the relative profitability of the two technologies, and it shifts endogenously with wages, machine prices, and job-filling probabilities. A higher γ* means more of the production sector is automated. — Robot adoption and inflation dynamics
Autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) model1 paper
A statistical model, adapted from Hamilton and Jorda (2000), for the "marked point process" describing Federal funds rate target changes -- irregular in timing and typically moving in discrete 25-basis-point increments -- that jointly forecasts the hazard (probability) of a target change in the next maintenance period and, via a companion ordered-probit model, the size of any change, allowing each observed target change to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated (surprise) components without requiring continuous futures-market data (Section 4). — The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
Average Causal Response (ACR)1 paper
The weighted average of the marginal dose effects of incarceration (e.g., effect of 12 vs. 11 months, 1 vs. 0 months) for groups of defendants whose sentence lengths are shifted by a given instrument. Contrasted with a binary LATE, the ACR averages across the full dosage distribution for compliers. — The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing
average inflation targeting (AIT)1 paper
a monetary policy framework in which the central bank targets the average rate of inflation over time, implying accommodation of below-target periods with above-target periods; shown here to imply looser initial policy and more persistent inflation in response to supply shocks, worsening the trade-off relative to standard IT. — Monetary policy trade-offs amid global supply chain disruptions
Average Match Function (AMF)1 paper
The conditional mean of a patient outcome given observable doctor type and patient type under random assignment, β(x,w) = E[Y|X=x, W=w], which serves as the building block for evaluating counterfactual reallocation policies. — Defying Distance? The Provision of Medical Services in the Digital Age