Online First Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Online 2 Aug 2026Countercyclical Return Expectations: Evidence from the Livingston SurveyStig V. Møller · Thomas Q. Pedersen · Sigurd A. M. Steffensen · Martin M. AndreasenUsing the Livingston survey - the longest-running U.S. survey of professional economists, running twice a year since June 1952 - this paper shows that the expected excess stock return implied by these …