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Stephen J. Terry

Associate Professor of Economics · University of Michigan

Associate Professor of Economics with tenure at the University of Michigan and Co-Editor of the Review of Economics and Statistics. Research covers short-termism, uncertainty and business cycles.

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Published American Economic Review Published Apr 2026

Real Credit Cycles

Pedro Bordalo · Nicola Gennaioli · Andrei Shleifer · Stephen J. Terry

This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations — beliefs that overweight the representativeness of recent data, formalized as $E_t^\theta(A_{t+1}) = E_t(A_{t+1}) + \theta[E_t(A_{t+1}) - …

Financial Frictions Banking Credit