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Stefan Lautenbacher

Principal Data Scientist · Alexander Thamm GmbH

Principal Data Scientist at Alexander Thamm GmbH; holds a PhD in Economics from LMU Munich (2021). Co-author of the survey study of German manufacturing firms' subjective uncertainty.

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Published American Economic Review Published Aug 2026

Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

Rüdiger Bachmann · Kai Carstensen · Stefan Lautenbacher · Manuel Menkhoff · Martin Schneider

A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but it is far less clear what makes firms uncertain in …

Expectations Macro Dynamics Labor Markets Methodology Free Read ↗