https://macropaperwarehouse.com/authors/sjak-smulders/Sjak SmuldersHugo -- gohugo.ioen-usThu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/self-fulfilling-prophecies-in-the-transition-to-clean-technology/Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/self-fulfilling-prophecies-in-the-transition-to-clean-technology/<p>This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change (DTC) — is hard to reconcile with forward-looking investors who anticipate an eventual move to clean technology. The authors propose an alternative: strategic investment complementarities among innovators can produce self-fulfilling prophecies that delay the low-carbon transition even when all agents foresee it will ultimately occur.</p>