https://macropaperwarehouse.com/authors/richard-karlsson-linner/Richard Karlsson LinnérHugo -- gohugo.ioen-ushttps://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/genetic-prediction-and-adverse-selection/https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/genetic-prediction-and-adverse-selection/<p>This paper asks how much adverse selection would arise in critical illness insurance (CII) markets if consumers can observe polygenic indexes (PGIs) — genetic risk scores derived from millions of genetic variants — while insurers are legally barred from using genetic information. The authors develop an econometric method that measures selection under current PGI technology, then extends identification to expected future PGI accuracy using heritability bounds, even though future PGIs are not yet observable in data.</p>