https://macropaperwarehouse.com/authors/philippe-colo/Philippe ColoHugo -- gohugo.ioen-ushttps://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/eliciting-multiple-prior-beliefs/https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/eliciting-multiple-prior-beliefs/<p>Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly important in economics, but choice-based incentive-compatible elicitation of probability intervals remains an open problem: existing scoring rules and matching-probability methods cannot recover probability intervals without assuming probabilistic sophistication that is precisely least warranted in settings where multiple priors are most relevant. This paper develops a preference-based identification of a subject&rsquo;s probability interval for an event, and a method for eliciting it under weak decision-theoretic assumptions with no need for probabilistic sophistication. Three incentivized experiments on artificial and natural sources of uncertainty demonstrate that the elicited intervals are sensitive to the direction and amount of information, are typically consistent with objective probabilities where available, and exhibit a predominance of non-degenerate probability intervals that are wider when there is less information or predictability. On aggregate, the choice-based intervals are similar to stated probability intervals, providing behavioral foundations for the use of stated interval techniques in the field.</p>