https://macropaperwarehouse.com/authors/peter-l.-rousseau/Peter L. RousseauHugo -- gohugo.ioen-ushttps://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/ai-and-task-efficiency/https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/ai-and-task-efficiency/<p>AI can improve decisions, raise firm productivity, and accelerate human capital growth through its effect on signal quality in problem-solving tasks, but the consequences are heterogeneous across the skill distribution and depend on how AI changes the hierarchy within firms. This paper proposes a framework in which AI improves the accuracy of the signals that guide human decisions—individually and in groups—and derives implications for firm organization, wages, and productivity. It also examines preliminary evidence: a cross-sectional regression of changes in TFP growth (2024 versus 2022) on sectoral AI exposure (Eisfeldt et al. 2024) for Compustat firms yields a positive relationship, statistically significant at the 10% level at the 3-digit NAICS sector level and at the 5% level at the firm level, with a slope coefficient of 0.206 for the firm-level regression. The paper compares AI to earlier general purpose technologies (GPTs)—electricity and information technology—finding that if there is a productivity delay for AI it appears shorter than the five- and eight-year delays documented for electrification and IT.</p>