https://macropaperwarehouse.com/authors/paul-niehaus/Paul NiehausHugo -- gohugo.ioen-ushttps://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/a-model-of-multiple-hypothesis-testing/https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/a-model-of-multiple-hypothesis-testing/<p>This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what conditions do MHT adjustments arise as an optimal solution to incentive misalignment between a researcher and a mechanism designer (social planner)?</p> <p>The model is a two-stage game. In the first stage, a benevolent social planner commits to a hypothesis testing protocol. In the second stage, a researcher decides whether to conduct a pre-specified experiment based on private costs and benefits. The planner&rsquo;s utility function combines an ambiguity-averse (maximin) component—limiting harm from mistaken conclusions—with an expected-utility component capturing the generic benefits of research production. The framework focuses on multiplicity arising from testing multiple treatments or estimating effects within multiple subpopulations; multiple outcomes are treated as an economically distinct case covered in a companion paper.</p>