Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without targeting inflation in …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewOnline 1 Nov 2025Published Nov 2025
This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether real marginal cost or the output gap …
Embedding a costly-state-verification debt contract -- in which a borrower's external finance premium depends inversely on net worth -- into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model, this chapter …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic PerspectivesPublished Nov 1995
This 1995 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper by Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler surveys the "credit channel" of monetary policy transmission — described explicitly as an amplifying mechanism, not an …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished Feb 2000
Estimating a forward-looking Federal Reserve policy rule separately for 1960-79 and 1979-96, this paper finds that the Fed let real short-term rates fall as expected inflation rose before Volcker, but …
PublishedClassicAmerican Economic Journal: MacroeconomicsPublished Jan 2015
This 2015 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Mark Gertler and Peter Karadi uses a "proxy SVAR" — a structural VAR identified with external instruments rather than timing restrictions — …
PublishedClassicQuarterly Journal of EconomicsPublished May 1994
This 1994 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper by Mark Gertler and Simon Gilchrist asks whether small manufacturing firms bear a disproportionate share of the manufacturing decline that follows …
PublishedAmerican Economic ReviewPublished Mar 2026
This paper measures and models the role of temporary layoffs (TL) in cyclical unemployment dynamics, motivating the analysis by the extraordinary surge in temporary layoffs at the onset of the …
PublishedClassicJournal of Economic LiteraturePublished Dec 1999
This widely cited survey derives monetary policy design from a simple forward-looking New Keynesian model, showing that optimal policy without commitment requires raising the nominal rate more than …