Macroeconomic Effects of Public R&D

Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational Expectations SVAR (RE-SVAR) that explicitly captures private-sector anticipation of public spending decisions. The central questions are: (1) what is the fiscal multiplier of public R&D spending on GDP and private R&D investment, and how does it compare to other government spending categories; (2) does public R&D crowd in or crowd out private R&D; and (3) how much does the private sector’s anticipation of future public R&D commitments amplify these effects?

Mariana Mazzucato | Macro Paper Warehouse

Macroeconomic Effects of Public R&D