https://macropaperwarehouse.com/authors/manuel-menkhoff/Manuel MenkhoffHugo -- gohugo.ioen-usThu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/uncertainty-and-change-survey-evidence-of-firms-subjective-beliefs/Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/uncertainty-and-change-survey-evidence-of-firms-subjective-beliefs/<p>Research question and motivation: A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but it is far less clear what makes firms uncertain in the first place. Macro models typically impose rational expectations and treat uncertainty as exogenous shocks to the conditional volatility of fundamentals. The paper asks how subjective uncertainty arises and evolves, and whether it is the same object as conditional volatility.</p>