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Julio L. Ortiz

Senior Economist · Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Senior Economist in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board, working on macroeconomics, investment and monetary economics, with a focus on firm dynamics and expectations formation. PhD from Boston University (2021).

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Online First Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Online 23 Oct 2025

Misspecified Expectations among Professional Forecasters

Julio L. Ortiz

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a "misspecified expectations" …

Expectations Learning Inflation Expectations Nowcasting Forecasting

Published Journal of Monetary Economics Published Apr 2026

Spread too thin: The impact of lean inventories

Julio L. Ortiz

This paper investigates the macroeconomic consequences of widespread just-in-time (JIT) inventory management, documenting a fundamental trade-off: JIT raises firm profitability and reduces micro-level …

Macroeconomics Firm Dynamics Free Read ↗