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Juan Pablo Nicolini

Principal Research Economist · Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Principal Research Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, with a part-time position at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos Aires. He previously chaired the economics department and served as president of Di Tella.

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Published Journal of Political Economy Online 1 Apr 2025 Published Dec 2025

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations

Joao Ayres · Gaston Navarro · Juan Pablo Nicolini · Pedro Teles

This paper asks whether sovereign debt crises can be self-fulfilling — triggered by lenders' expectations of default rather than by weak fiscal fundamentals alone — and whether such crises are …

Financial Stability Fiscal Monetary Interactions