John H. Cochrane

John H. Cochrane

Commenting on Christina and David Romer's claim that active Federal Reserve policy ended postwar recessions, Cochrane argues that their historical narrative cannot distinguish a Fed that reacts to …

John H. Cochrane

Cochrane asks whether U.S. postwar inflation can be understood using a "frictionless" fiscal theory of the price level -- in which the price level is pinned down by the government's intertemporal …

John H. Cochrane

Discussing Christina and David Romer's "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks," Cochrane argues the paper's key innovation -- that Greenbook forecasts are a sufficient statistic for the Fed's information …

John H. Cochrane

Cochrane argues that the standard new-Keynesian account of how a Taylor rule pins down inflation is incomplete -- it works only by assuming the government will follow policies that amount to a threat …

John H. Cochrane

Extending the fiscal theory of the price level to long-term government debt, Cochrane shows that the maturity structure of outstanding debt determines whether news about future deficits shows up as …

John H. Cochrane

Cochrane argues that the fiscal theory of the price level rests on a valuation equation, not a budget constraint -- nominal government debt is priced like a claim on future government surpluses, …

John H. Cochrane

Using simple two-variable autoregressions of consumption and GNP, and of dividends and stock prices, Cochrane shows that a shock to GNP (or to stock prices) that leaves consumption (or dividends) …

John H. Cochrane

Surveying the evidence for monetary, technology, oil-price, and credit shocks as drivers of postwar U.S. business cycles, Cochrane finds that none of these popular observable candidates robustly …

John H. Cochrane · Monika Piazzesi

This 2002 American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings essay by John Cochrane and Monika Piazzesi proposes a high-frequency alternative to monthly-VAR identification of monetary policy shocks, …

John H. Cochrane

Using band-pass spectral filters on weekly U.S. data from the Federal Reserve's 1979-82 nonborrowed-reserve-targeting period, Cochrane finds a negative short-run correlation between money growth and …

John H. Cochrane

Using the government-debt valuation equation -- the requirement that the real value of outstanding government debt equal the present value of future primary surpluses -- this paper argues that after …

John H. Cochrane

Even after monetary policy shocks are "correctly" identified in a VAR, Cochrane argues a further, purely theoretical identifying assumption -- whether anticipated money can affect output -- is needed …