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Gaston Navarro

Research Department economist · Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. His research spans macroeconomics, fiscal policy, debt and default, and monetary policy.

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Published Journal of Political Economy Online 1 Apr 2025 Published Dec 2025

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations

Joao Ayres · Gaston Navarro · Juan Pablo Nicolini · Pedro Teles

This paper asks whether sovereign debt crises can be self-fulfilling — triggered by lenders' expectations of default rather than by weak fiscal fundamentals alone — and whether such crises are …

Financial Stability Fiscal Monetary Interactions